The 4 year bear market in gold has programmed traders to expect failure. That is 180 degrees the wrong attitude to have this late in a bear market. At this point instead of expecting failure you have to give every rally the benefit of the doubt. The longer this bear continues the greater the odds become that one of these intermediate bottoms will turn out to be THE BOTTOM.


  1. thebeek

    I’m with you Gary. Bought miners aug and sept, nov. and then jan shake out. Despite some holding fears I’m fine, with only regret not selling more than 1 tranch in oct. (my birthday run) Thanks for your consistent, persistent, and forthright analyses’.

  2. Jacob 2

    “Adversity in the financial markets will cause people to once again get interested in the precious metal markets” ( John Hathaway). We have arrived.

  3. Dan smith

    Patience is required!! looking at the six month chart it looks like a possible bottoming scenario. Switch to the five year chart, the bull trap returns.

  4. Chris

    Gold may drop to run those stops today. But it must recover by the end of the day. If not, it could be game over. Fingers crossed. And glad its a risk free trade.

  5. JRT

    Thanks for the very detailed analysis Gary. Truly appreciated. It will be interesting to see how things progress over the next few weeks in equities, gold and the USD…

  6. Anthonyo

    Gold must close decisively above 1189 on a weekly basis; otherwise we are going down in another leg lower to find a bottom. This is just technicals, not conditioning to the bear. We don’t want to wish for the bull to have started, or wish for the bear to end now. Markets do what they want when they want. Gold’s character needs to be re-checked like a patient who comes out of a hospital after a long illness; everything needs to be re-confirmed. The patient is not going to come out of the hospital and do a 1000 yard dash all of a sudden. We need to thwart our enthusiasms and visions of an imminent radical melt uo in gold. She won’t run until she runs. She can’t be prodded or pushed.

    Commodities are making rolling bottoms, gold’s turn will come.

  7. Stefan

    This is another bearmarket rally, we will not turnaround into a bullmarket until *confidential*

    I can’t tell you about this in detail, bcos if this fractal count is going public it will break and I don’t want that to happen. This is my edge against other traders 🙂

  8. Walt

    My only position still is 100% short the s&p
    via SH as of last week . I think the vix finished too low 2 weeks ago for that to be the bottom of this correction . Way too much complacency all around . I’m looking for a bottom @ 1680-1730 in early February

  9. Chris

    In 1 min, $0.4 of silver is gone. Similarly, when mini dax futures open, something weird too happened. In a few seconds, prices went up from 100 over points, only to go back to norm. This market is full of crooks

  10. Chris

    I think u guys are making a mistake by not buying euro. It is clearing 1.10, and should head to 1.12 minimum

  11. Gary Post author

    The dollar is trying to break it’s cycle uptrend line this morning. If it holds into the close then it should start the move down into the daily cycle low. This could give gold a bit of a tailwind for a few days, although gold is stretched above the 10 day moving average. It may need to consolidate for a day or two to allow the 10 time to catch up to price.

  12. Dan

    Like contrarianadvisor on SA says, I’ve never seen optimism in an asset stay so high when the price has fallen so much. Gold could get to $1200, but is ultimately headed to $600 or lower when deflation really takes hold.

    1. Gary Post author

      Actually at the bottom in Dec. sentiment was as bleak as it’s ever been in the last 20 years on the metals.

      We need sentiment to improve. Rising sentiment is what pushes markets higher.

  13. Gary Post author

    Wow another massive attack on both gold and silver this morning. This kind of stuff has to end in order for the bull to begin. At some point the natural forces will stop this manipulation but clearly it hasn’t done so yet, as the attacks are still coming.

  14. klo

    A little tree shaking in gold as a diversion while the dollar rolls over.

    I’m hanging on to my miners for the full 8 seconds.

    Can da boyz keep this up forever? I guess we’ll all find out soon enough.

    1. tulip

      did you expect it to go vertical w/out a pullback….???
      I prefer to stick w Garys chart character analysis…..

  15. Chris

    IF they did not flash crash silver during light volume, and subsequently damage gold’s technical, today US$ weakness will push it much higher. Now the technical damage is so bad, i think the high is set already. Miners will do well though until USD bottoms. A great bunch of crooks

  16. Jorgy

    Add today’s BTFD price action to the laundry list of character changes. Manipulators bang futures pre-market, Johnny Retail panic sells on the open and Smart Money adds to their positions ahead of a breakdown of the USD’s daily, intermediate and three year cycle low! ?

    1. Gary Post author

      That is the big drawback in this sector. It’s hard to tell when a pullback is an attempt to break a rally or when it is just a manipulation to allow big money to buy more shares cheap.

      It would be nice if the sector were just allowed to trade naturally based on supply and demand and we didn’t have to constantly second guess the intentions of the players controling this market.

  17. Ty64

    Bullion Banks shaking the tree to get you out of your miner positions once again before heading higher?

    I”m thinking for the time being, the current Gold cycle won’t just “roll over” and give us another lower low just yet. Yesterday, GDX reached a gain of just over 14% from its recent low of $12.40 before having a slight pullback today. If the miners are in the process of putting in a decent rally, then we should see somewhere around a 30% rally off of their low before this is over. I have no intentions of selling any GDX positions until the stock reaches around the $16.00 level. Today’s pullback may turn out to be “the” or “the beginnings of the needed fuel” to push the miners up to a 26 – 30% gain before this rally is over. 🙂

  18. Walt

    Weirdest day of the year marketwise.
    What’s up w gold just sitting there all day at $1115 ? And the s/p & dow’s movemonets odd. The biggest news today is Facebook. Strange times .
    Very strange stuff .

  19. klo

    Really thoughtful and thorough video Gary. Thank you for all the efforts you are putting in here!

    Just a question as to why you say the new precious metal bull has to be tied into the 7 year cycle low in the general stock market? Can you give us any further explanation? I could understand the gold bear market turnaround not starting until the general market topped. But the gold bull dependency on the stock market’s 7 year cycle low isn’t as intuitive.

  20. Alexandru Popovici

    Just bought gold at 1115.2
    As I commented yesterday, I waited for 2 things:
    – USX’ weekly swing high at 98.68 which has been extremely important for me to swing my view
    – a reversal in gold to occur, a potential HCL.
    Both have occured, so that here I am NOW MAKING A SAFE LONG GOLD BET! –> I AM CONVINCED IT HAS NOT BEEN SAFE DOING IT EARLIER THAN NOW even if some may have made some profit already – it’s been a too risky profit.
    After all, at 1115 I am just +7% above the bottom which is a very low, buy-on-strength-after-a-bear-market entry with a low risk too 🙂

  21. ChrisG

    Alex, you have bought gold at the most unfortunate time. It has just broken down on its intraday time frame, that sometimes mark the top. You are better buying strength, then weakness. I think only if it clears 1122, then it is fine to buy

    1. Gary Post author

      The metals have been pretty fickle about follow through. Buying breakouts hasn’t worked very often. The better strategy has been to buy into weakness. The problem of course is to try and guess when weakness is temporary and due to reverse, and not to buy into weakness that is about to accelerate.

  22. klo

    Never short a dull market……

    The change in character is that the metals are steady. If we are in a new bull market then there is a reasonable chance of upside surprises.

  23. credravir

    That is 180 degrees the wrong attitude to have this late in a bear market. At this point instead of expecting failure you have to give every rally the benefit of the doubt. Where did you get this information?

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