1. MuffinTop

    No matter what Gold does over the next few months, it’s pretty clear that the Miners are chopping sideways and slowly building a base.. and so I’ll say it again: Stop trying to time every move and instead start putting together a shopping list of Gold stocks that are worth hanging onto for the long-term — that’s where you’re gonna make most of your money! By exercising patience and restraint you ding dongs πŸ™‚

    1. AlexP

      yes, MT, that looks like a good approach but to me at least that seems too early; the signal to start doing it would be USX breaking to new high, i.e. above 100.72, during this quarter –> at that moment USX bulls will feel ultra-confident, complacency will rule while gold will be to new lows and GDX close to its ICL at around 13.00 in mid FEB

    2. Mark

      You could be right……
      I discovered this list where the stocks are divided in stages where stage 1 is the bottoming process,stage 2 recovery and uptrend (bull market),stage 3 topping process and stage 4 bear market.
      There are many gold stock that are ALREADY in a bull market,this is very interesting!
      It’s a pity that Gary doesn’t follow PM stocks because it could be great to read his opinion on this matter.

  2. zkotpen


    Aren’t those trend lines daily cycle trend lines?

    Also, I note your comment on the move up from mid-March thru mid-May of 2015. As you know, my TA does not see Mar 18 and Dec 3 as ICL’s, but rather DCL’s (A cycle or wave one degree lower than intermediate). That’s why your weekly slow stoch did not get overbought in May, and why the weekly slow stoch will not get overbought during the current consolidation/rally.

    Your alternate scenario is my preferred scenario — based on my own TA. In keeping with that, I expect gold will not break that trendline you’ve drawn, before heading down into its YCL, to be followed by a strong rally out of the bottom…

  3. David Silver

    Gold Alert:
    Cleared 1080
    The old me would buy here at breakout
    The new me wants to short her
    What to do, what to do (got just under 7 hours to decide)
    Should subside as open approaches (overretion of North Korea?)
    What to do, what to do
    Down (nuff said)
    Got my eye on gold at the moment

    1. AlexP

      morning, David.
      watch out on the “new-me” approach: shorting gold now is a very low probability trade –> USX stands ready to fall into its daily cycle decline after the Employment Report in 2 days –> that will be food for gold delivering a weekly swing low as it clears above 1088 and to reach its DCH at about 1145 early next week.

      Thus, shorting gold would be warranted on Tuesday or late Monday the earliest.

      1. David Silver

        Alex you just read my mind (at the moment I am sifting through candidates to go long gold via miners)
        I’m going to bow out of my lost trade in long NFLX and trade it off with that and flip them at the open
        Holding crude short as well
        PS: I pegged gold 1145.42 aka mid Jan? back then for the next rally in gold which sounds according to you and Mr. Savage NOW!
        Thanks bro!

        1. AlexP

          Welcome, David!
          Except that I am convinced that the gold rally is now very late (only several days) BUT …the few remaining days of the rally are GONNA BE THE JUCIEST –> GOLD TO BREAK OUT BIG TO 1145 IN A SHORT SPAN OF TIME.

          On the other hand, the breakout above 1089 will prove false as gold will move into its intermediary cycle decline as early as next week!

  4. chris

    Alex, your spx 1924 could be in play. But I am watching nikkei. At 17500 ish, I will cover all nikkei, and some US shorts. Then watch price actions. Only if nikkei close below 17500 ish. Will I dare to think more weakness lies ahead

    1. AlexP

      I think SPX will not move below 1967

      I don’t know about Nikkei … never looked at it.
      On the other hand, the first thing that drew my attention to trading and FASCINATED ME ON THE SPOT AND MADE ME FALL IN LOVE WITH TRADING was a story about Nikkei πŸ™‚ : namely a newspaper article about the collapse of Barings Bank due to the overtrading bet long Nikkei of Nick Leeson –> everything started for me with that article!!! that article is for me as a trader just as Mountain Black Forest is for Danube river

      1. crawford

        we are not going below 1980. we are still in a BULL FLAG pattern. We should see some kind of powerfull rally breakout soon.

  5. Will

    Note how much Yen has strengthened over past month! I think the USD will implode sooner rather than later…

    1. AlexP

      yes, USX should go higher but not before cooling a bit in the aftermath of jobs report on Friday.
      USX shows strength above my expectations. I had not given up hope on USX one second despite its plunge into ICL due to ECB’s delay of its QE increase.

  6. chris

    Nice gold call. I have already made my nikkei and ndx risk free and just now used some profits to buy gold albeit $10 higher than my selling price two days ago. Rebought this sucker since i my shorts are fine already.

  7. Chris

    Alex, you could be wrong about spx 1967. Your reasoning that due to nyse gonna fight and support at 200wma argument may not hold. Bcos, nyse already fought and bounced off it in aug 2015. So this retest may result in 200wma not holding.

    1. AlexP

      very little probability for NYSE’s 200wma to be broken –> such a strong technical can occur only on a major FUNDAMENTAL catalyst, which is not the case (China’s woos are no news, Japan’s Abenomics on the brink of failure also no new news, US and EU economies steady on their trends).
      Only something new can warrant the break of the 200Wma, such as unexpected fall in Chinese GDP alongside the default of a large Chinese bank or the actual failure of Abenomics or renewed sovereign debt crisis in EU …

  8. AlexP

    …in the absence of such a fundamental catalyst, money managers will see the shakeout of NYSE’s 200Wma as a major BUY-ON-WEAKNESS signal.

    At that moment retailers should also be in a freak-out mood with perma-bears praising themselves around “you see? told you 4 months ago the bear is not dead; it wont stop without a -25% SPX shave” –> exactly the kind of market setup to cater the bottom πŸ˜‰

  9. Chris

    Yes, but if you look at 2011, 200wma broke briefly for weeks before regaining. And base on measured moves, nyse target seems 8750 ish. ie, its previous big breakout point. Anyway, lets see. By this week, we shall have the answer.

  10. chris

    Armstrong says market volatility til Feb, seems like he is bit more bearish than Alex. Battle of the ‘A’sses!!! Lol

  11. AlexP

    back in 2011 there was new bearish fundamental data –> GREECE ! and to a larger degree the first major challenge of Eurozone economy.

    This is something that I forecast starting with OCT 23 – the exhaustion gap at spx 2077 – when everybody (except for perma-bears) was a stock bull and WHEN MANY WERE SEEING ONLY STOCK BUBBLES IN FRONT OF THEIR EYES.

    I warned then that the truth was in the middle: that a major intermediary decline would come but that would not be more than the reflection of a psychological adjustment and that the market would jump straight up after around JAN8 but…..without delivering a bubble –> no bubble in stock market earlier than 2018

  12. zag

    Dollar is rising together with gold which is unusual, so what will happen, gold will turn down or dollar ?

    dollar is very close to negation of double top

    1. Gary Post author

      The dollar was never what was driving gold down. It just made it easier for the powers attacking gold to push it lower.

    1. AlexP

      Marc Faber is fun but he is obsolete. There is no prediction of his to have been accomplished that I can remember. Maybe once upon a time he was good that he has hoarded so much fame …

      1. David Silver

        Alex must be his accent that makes him sound convincing or he could be a fantastic campfire story teller ?

        1. AlexP

          exactly, David! πŸ™‚ actually I love listening to him, he is enthralling.
          Lately I’ve heard he now lives in Thailand … I will not comment more on that…he, honey-tongued old chap πŸ™‚

  13. AlexP

    Stock market is very near to fully digesting the new setup of FED rate hikes into its price.

    PS: Cheetah in charging position: belly barely touching the ground, eyes wide open staring on the prey, every muscle tensed –> just one sign for the cheetah to surge on its stockish preys!

    1. AlexP

      just wait for USX to surge above 100.72 towards the YCH in March πŸ™‚ then you will see how low crude can get to

      1. David Silver

        Alex never calculated her target that way but will take that advice to the bank my brother ?

        1. AlexP

          I don’t know how low buuut …. it’s my gut feeling that crude cannot go below 30 without a strong fundamental catalyst

  14. David Silver

    Same camp as Chris here:
    Rebuying my metals/gold miners here at rhe open after selling them Monday (2nd chance)
    Out of US markets (better odds vs. metals/miners) technically damaged, yesterday at the open for both would’ve been genius or simply holding metals/miners but hindsight is 20/20
    Holding crude shorts
    Mr. Savage knows his metals for sure
    Was hoping for a buy nearest 1080 and vice versa for stock futures (again Tuesday open)

  15. AlexP

    as expected and said here 2 days ago, LNKD diverges from SPX and NASDAQ –> barely inching lower while the indexes made new lows in this intermediary cycle

  16. AlexP


    I have a pilot position in LNKD.
    I’ll continue buying up to 90% of portfolio until Friday, JAN8, shortly after the opening.

    PS: I may have been too pessimistic with SPX down to as low as 1967.

  17. Gary Post author

    Stocks are only on day 15 of their daily cycle. It should be too early for an intermediate bottom, plus sentiment is still neutral at 52% bulls. ICL’s need sentiment below 30% bulls to form a final bottom.

    1. AlexP

      nope, Gary, DEC14 was a HCL not DCL.
      Maybe ICL comes in the next 2 days and not at today’s low of 1986.02 but strong leaders (FB included) have already diverged from all indexes, so that it’s worth throwing in at least one pilot buy.

  18. Yash

    I think AlexP daily cycle is different. His last DCL is 2019 so its day 34. in your case your last DCL is 1993 making previous cycle 19 days.

    1. Gary Post author

      I’m pretty sure the correct way to count that cycle is as a half cycle low in a slightly stretched cycle. The cycle preceding was very short so it makes sense to have a long cycle follow. Plus the NYMO confirms Dec. as the DCL.

      1. AlexP

        sorry, Gary, I disagree.

        PS: besides, NYMO also shows bullish divergence for NYSE Composite on that chart πŸ˜‰

      2. Gary Post author

        We might get a stretched ICL that bottoms in March, but you can’t have an ICL with 52% bulls. Maybe a DCL followed by another DCL, but that would require really stretching the intermediate cycle.

        1. AlexP

          this DC is not stretched, today is day 35, nor was the previous one: 34 days.
          Today is most likely also ICL at 1986.02 πŸ˜‰

  19. Chris

    For me, today, ndx cash index have to go to 4470 for me to consider a long trade. Below it, its a bounce.

  20. AlexP

    I know it is hard for people to believe starting buying stocks now, but…that is what makes trading great fun πŸ™‚ πŸ™‚

  21. Chris

    Yes, trading is fun or funny? I will not pick bottom, at least it must take out certain highs for me to give a turnaround a chance. Likewise for gold, it doesn’t seem like today is a $20-$30 move. So…. I sold at 1089.

  22. AlexP

    yes, I know, buying on breakouts technique –> Livermore / Wickoff / O’Neil / Darvas style

    Except that that technique was developed in quite trending markets …. now all disciples of that technique have had to develop new techniques of buying into weakness – some fail at it, others do it good, while others do it excellently.

    The point here is not to buy every bottom, there are signals, there is a technique, not every stock qualifies…
    Stocks for you all to consider buying these days: LNKD, FB, SLP, CMN, STMP

  23. chris

    I have lock in my good profits and tr reversed to long. Wasted on dax, it was at a point that supposed to long. But I did not due to my US shorts. In the end, after squaring, bought dax at 100 pts higher. Also long back gold.

    1. victor

      “Today is most likely also ICL at 1986.02 ?” Alex chickened, I close my spx vix short too (( :

  24. David Silver

    Congrats Mr. Savage and thanks for the gold call
    Gold on path to 1145.42 in due time
    Crude on path to 32.99 MINIMUM to 27.14 maximum (latter wave decline?)
    US Markets JUST hit a bearish “speed bump” and tape action turned negative midday
    Short crude
    Long miners
    Day off today so I got my INTENSE radar on for other pickens!

    1. David Silver

      Appears as Alex mentioned a “relief rally” could ensue around the S&P via 1976 due to technicals due to a lower wedge trendline bounce (bull flag formation)
      Time to go long the US markets in general for a “short pop” to 2058ish region
      But obviously FOR NOW the markets as a whole are so brutally damaged
      OR we fail and go down to 1870 (eventually)
      So risk vs. reward IMHO avoid and wait as Mr. Savage has been hinting.
      Clearly a short position could be an option as well

      1. Gary Post author

        There is no reason to buy stocks other than for a day trade until sentiment reaches extremes, and that is going to take a couple more weeks.

  25. Dan

    Criminal VIX slamming manipulation is endless. So obvious. I’m holding March SPY OTM puts no matter what (<2% of account) and don't care if they expire worthless.

    Everything points to a crash very soon but time is running out for bears. There are still plenty of BTFD lemmings to fleece. But I'm not delusional either expecting to make a windfall and am long TLT also for a medium term hold.

  26. David Silver

    Mr. Savage thank you and I concur
    Dan I was looking at TLT myself (nice call)
    Implementing plans for crude:
    Calculating a near-term bottom bounce via $32.99 for a flip out of my short to long with limit sells coinciding with limit buys
    Holding my miner position

  27. Ralph Wiederzane

    So far so good on the G’s call for lower stocks, every time I check in they’re lower and lower!

    I still won’t touch miners though, I’m enjoying the beach on the sidelines too much to put myself through that type of disappointment. They might go up, but if the past is any indicator they’ll probably take everybody’s money again (and again).

  28. AlexP

    gold and miners still have room for growth into Friday.

    yes, ICL has got hit at 1979 ! not too far away from my target of 1967 anyway

    ught also some STMP and SLP, so that now 42% stock exposure

  29. AlexP


    Had the market been rigged/manipulated indeed, then I could not “guess” so many times as I have been able to call in the last several months.

    1. Gary Post author

      The market is due for a bounce. It closed below the lower Bollinger band. But I really doubt we will get a final ICL until the last week of January. Sentiment is still way too bullish for an ICL.

  30. chris

    Alex, you have a chance. Bcos based on my short term perimeters, futures already made a pattern where a change in trend is possible. With this pattern, at least half of all shorts must be covered, if not all shorts. And some long position is also warranted.

    1. AlexP

      yes, Chris. A lower low is not off the books, I would still give it a very, very small probability but even if so, it would come on a noise action of markets and that lower low would be shallow … so shallow that if indeed that small probability does occur the SPX will toch after all my target of 1967 πŸ™‚ πŸ™‚

    1. AlexP

      it will grow until Monday; USX just put its DCH today and started its daily cycle decline –> gold to 1145 is round the corner after which intermediary cycle decline wil ensue as USX will continue its surge into new high ground until March

  31. David Silver

    Alex Chris what are you guys rhinkin?
    1967ish to 2058ish?
    Buy the open especially on a big gap down aka 1967ish?
    Damn you NFLX?

  32. Will

    Holding miners since Dec. Give ’em another week at least? ???

    As for equities, weekly shooting star as of last week’s closing just did what it supposed to do. We shall see how the weekly close after the NFP today.

    Crude oil, don’t be surprised by a strong counter-rally bounce. Quarterly support at $30 would be a hard shell to break! So, price won’t go there in the interim.

    Lastly, does anyone know any website where I could save/ share my charts anonymously?

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