64 thoughts on “CHART OF THE DAY

  1. Gary Post author

    I think it’s safe to say that no one is expecting gold to break above $1200 on its first try. How many are expecting a run to the 23% Fib before the cycle tops?

    It may be more likely than most think as the dollar is in real trouble right now.

  2. Newbie

    I am new to trading. but if I were to short gdx, then I would buy DUST. which I did couple days ago at 6.50. will hold and sell once the correction happens. whenever that is.

    1. Gary Post author

      Let me give you some advice from someone that has been there many times. Never try to short a rally this explosive, and especially not the initial rally out of a final bear market bottom. You might get lucky and make some money, but the odds are greater that you will get your face ripped off when the rally goes further than you expect.

      There are only two positions when a new bull is being born. You are either long, or you are on the sidelines waiting for a pullback. Never short. It’s too risky.

      Just as an example look at the dollar from May 2014 to March of 2015. You got your teeth kicked in if you tried to short that.

        1. Utopia

          Now I am really worried. That is just news gold is going higher since so many expect that trade to pay off.

    2. David

      New trader playing with dust or Nugt is like a toddler playing with a loaded gun. I am an experienced trader and I did not take heed to Gary’s warning about Nugt a few years back and I paid for it. You must have very tight stops should hold very short term. Bullion banks usually will take out stops in triple leveraged etfs with volatility…. Time decay will eat your lunch…..

  3. WadeS

    fingers crossed.
    The action in gold towards the end of the day almost looked theatrical like it was about break down hard at any moment, but never really did. Miners sold off a little. Could very well be a head fake. Sure seemed curious.
    Besides, isn’t Yellen going to need to deliver a dovish speech/address tomorrow, and if she doesn’t then what? Dow was saved at 16000 again because supposedly DB is going issue some bonds(?)
    Seems pretty theatrical

    1. Anthonyo

      Wade,

      PPT is defending Dow 16,000 tooth and nail in the last 2 months+; it is their lynch pin They know it is an important level. Check.

  4. Bill in Tokyo

    Muff called the D. Looks spot on.

    Gar, am thinking that if this IS the new bull run, and if using your old day’s terminology that we just completed a huge 4 yr D wave, then if this is thus the A wave, maybe we’re only 1/2 way done.

    And, if so, I think gold will just go sideways here, making Muff’s D handle, and then surging higher. Maybe 1300 or more. 1400 even. If this is the new gold bull, if it’s like the last one, it will be very difficult to get on.

    Better to buy ‘n hold ‘Ol Turkey like you said, for 5 yrs.

    1. Bill in Tokyo

      Gar, if this IS the new gold bull, and if this IS a fresh new A wave, I don’t know but wouldn’t it like try to eventually go up to the old highs as the A wave top … 1923 that is? I mean, that’s assuming that the next B comes down and then the massive C goes higher than 1923. I don’t know, just seems like, big-picture like, that we need to keep that in mind.

      1. Anthonyo

        I wish people will stop saying “final bear market bottom”. Not proven, not yet, yes a large bounce in a bear trend it may mean the fall in gold would be that much larger still? … USD experiencing a garden variety correction let’s not make it more than what it is?

        1. jacob

          agreed – i closed position in gold after 80% gain. yeah i would love to believe that gold is going straight to the moon from here to screw the shorts some more. but i decided to leave my excitement at the door and just sit on the sidelines for further clues as Gary suggested

        2. Herman

          agree, this is not the bottom, and it will get very, very ugly the coming months.

          I am a gold bull, and determined to stay a gold bull, so I sold my PM positions around 1195. Many gold bulls will wither away the coming months when we plunge towards 500/oz. check out contrarianadvisor on seeking alpha for realistic guidance were the markets are headed, this guy is hands down the best in town.

  5. Walt

    The dollar moved down 4% in one month .
    That’s huge move in the US dollar in that amount if time , i repeat a huge move .
    It looks to drop futher , but I think there will be a pause / temporary reversal imminently . Stocks may rise very soon 5% before hitting their final lows at the end of the feb / early march.

  6. Bluebear87

    Hard to believe you would think that with reversal daily gravestone/shooting star doji bearish candlesticks galore on MOST charts including the XAU and HUI!
    Heck even DUST exhibiting the opposite bullish in inverse candlestick wick reversal.

    1. jacob

      i’m going through the comments section to see who has the most grounded comments and this rates as one of them. it seems some people are taking their opionion and imposing them on the markets regardless of how the market is behaving. technicals are pointing to lower prices over the short term – plain and simple. maybe smart money has an ace in their sleeve, but how can one make sound trading decisions with that sort of mentality about the markets.

    1. mike trike

      what a waste of time that video was. It may have bottomed but may go lower, lol. The guy was bullish on gold the last 4 years and buying all the way down. lol

  7. Ty64

    GDX has already broken above its October, 2015 high…yet, GDXJ has not done so yet. I wouldn’t be surprised if GDXJ breaks its October, 2015 just around the time Gold breaches Gary’s $1200 number. Perhaps look out below thereafter…a real price dip that is.

    1. Anthonyo

      Gold has already made a local top or will make one soon. And yes the next down wave of deflation will tke gold down harder and larger. Maloney agrees and keeps the door open for a visit to below $1000 for gold and he is a perma bull on gold…

  8. Chris

    who cares if dow 16k is supported. Go look at 1998, dow ok initially, nasdaq plunged. So now? just short tech, ignore dow

  9. Bill in Tokyo

    Folks, here’s why I think Gary’s right about the bottom, using just TA 101. These aren’t cycles reasons, just my personal TA triggers that I watch.

    1. GLD is impulsing up. One can feel it. Short covering lasts a day or 2 max – this is up, up and then more up. After hitting 1200 did $GOLD then drop down? No, it hangs out. Ready to climb again. It is relentless. A Terminator. The bull is alive.

    2. Monthly $GOLD’s price is now above the 13 and 20 month EMA’s. Long term buy signal.

    3. Weekly $GOLD has made a higher high. taking out last Oct’s high.

    Full disclosure: I totally missed this last run. When GDX tanked in early Jan, then bounced up, I thought that was short covering. Then the feeling behind GLD changed, to impulsive. Anyways, I missed it.

  10. Chris

    Bill in Toyko, u are dreaming. Feb havent even closed yet, not month end, so… please dont talk about monthly. Yes, it made impulse leg up, but this only means possible uptrend. It has yet to take out the most important peak of $1300.

    Always ask yourself, what is the primary, secondary trend. Primary is clearly down. That is the key. And wake up bulls, gold could easy fail. It could drop to buy zone, and fail.

    The way that i am going to approach this is to buy some during the correction, when it falls into the zone. When it subsequently takes out the high, then I will buy another half. Buying full size when gold drops into support is reckless. I have caught a big chunk of the rally, i could use some profits to test water.

    Do not get too carried away buy Garys bullishness. Last oct, he was also super bullish. But i believe he took profit near the highs. Did he buy during the correction, cut with minimal losses, etc. you will then have to be his subscriber in order to know.

  11. Van

    Caution is still warranted, as we currently still have a non-confirmational lower-high in silver.
    I cannot see Gold going up by itself without the rest of the commodities also turning around.

  12. Chris

    Lovely to see gold tanking. Whatever level I choose to scale in, I would view 1114 as the line in the sand. Assuming we have seen the highs for this first leg. If I see a print of 1114, I think the bull is over. If u see 1096, confirm its over.

  13. Dan smith

    I think the recent gold bullish phase has been a result of the declining stock markets. If the markets recover, I think gold will maintain its slide. Also the deflationary negative interest rates aren’t going away anytime soon. I am open to a possibility to a bull market beginning but i remain skeptical, i’ll stay in cash on the sidelines for now.

  14. Chris

    Dan, dont kid yourself. This stock market is dead. It should be bouncing to wipe the smiles of the bears. After this bounce, new lows. This is a global bear market. And forget about Central Banks. Market have spoken, they middle fingered CB.

    Issue is, should stocks crash after this bounce, will PMs follow suit like in 2008. I think not. But u never know

    1. Dan smith

      Ah Chris i never proclaim to know one possibility or the other. That way its possible to do well from either outcome. I’ve heard the same comments for years, stock market is dead, long live the gold bull. As I said i’m open to the suggestion that this is the beginning of a gold bull. butI really don’t care which way any of the markets go as long as i’m on then right side of the trade.

      1. Chris

        I agree dan. Just be on the right side. Why market is dead? Because the internals are just like tech bubble crash, and 2008 crash. Until internals changes, this is how to interpret the market

    2. Anthonyo

      Chris, Dont underestimate the power and scope of the Fed and PPT. All it takes is a repenting by the Fed to say no more rate hikes for foreseeable future, and if needed QE4(under some strange made-up name) and stocks in US will melt Up so fast you will see it on the screen as a blur.

      But Fed is being wishy washy, flakey, and stubborn as judged by Yellen’s worthless blabbering today. She is playing with fire hiking into deflation.

      Yet, her middle finger is much fatter and bigger than the markets middle finger my friend. Lest you forget.

  15. Stefan

    It was a crystal clear 5 wave impulsive up move, just look att a 15min chart in gold. We are in a corrective or sideways mode right now but becos of the sharp up move I guess there is more steam left in this rally 🙂

  16. pepe le pew

    Gary, is gold on day 18, or day 28? If it’s the latter, it looks like the DCH is in, but I can’t get the count right!

  17. pepe le pew

    Edit: you must think it’s day 18, considering your scenario of a break above $1200 before the cycle tops, correct?

  18. Chris

    Gary already took profit. He only said that an small rally is possible. But who cares. The big picture is that gold is heading below 1150. Look at gold again when its below there.

  19. pepe le pew

    I care, Chris, because I went from HGU to HGD two days ago and yesterday, so I am sitting on a rare short profit. Just weighing greed vs safety here…

  20. Chris

    dude, too late to enter a long position. Just get out, sideline. Ask for easy money. Why make life difficult for yourself.

    And gold bulls. Really. Please wake up your ideas. Do not think that gold is out of the woods. Really. This could just be a dead cat bounce before new lows again. Point is…. do not all in on your longs, even during the pullback. If gold have a deep pullback, and it must be deep, then subsequently break the first legs high, then 90% bull run already.

  21. Chris

    oh, sorry dude. U went bearish precious metals. Should be ok. Really. Your stop loss should be if gold closes above 1210.

  22. Chris

    I dont know how to count cycles like you guys. But my believe is equities is in bounce mode til next week, and gold in correction mode til next week. Just nice. Next week is Option Expiration week.

  23. klo

    I took some profit Monday on some NUGT as the charts looked extremely toppy as others have mentioned. Everyone say pullback now and sit on the sidelines.

    I don’t know ot just doesn’t feel right…like it should be that easy. Gary may be on to something. ..if you look at a big enough time frame this move up in the whole pm complex is teeny.

    Thinking og repur

  24. klo

    Thinking of repurchasing the NUGT I sold and just sitting. Scalp 6 or 8 bucks and have some more cash to deploy.

  25. Ralph Wiederzane

    I’m putting in orders to add to my miners if the GDX can pull back to $15.30, haven’t sold anything and have a long term view. The $15.30 level is around 50% retrace from the rocket higher, and close to the 200 moving average as well, a good a spot as any.

    1. mike trike

      That’s the area I am looking to buy as well Ralph. I think Dust gets back to over $10 where I will sell.

  26. Mark

    Gary,
    you should begin to follow also gold and silver stocks not just indices,etf,’s etc……
    IF this is he start of a bull market it would be great to hear from you some good suggestions about this potentially explosive world 🙂

  27. Chris

    When i see some of the comments, i want to laugh. Because they are so amateurish. Like cant wait to buy back gold after shortly selling it. Its like this is a bull run that will never retrace. Why amateurish? Because it was so me when I was an amateur. lol. Glad that I am so calm, so pro now!

    1. tulip

      chris, why are you here then or r u from another site we are familiar with… and simply trolling ..?/a waste of time isn’t it..?

    2. Bill

      Boy thankfully we have you’re expertise here to teach all us Jr’s, I was trading Stocks, Bonds and Gold while you were still suckling on your nipple and crying to be changed..

  28. Chris

    dude, i have been commenting on this site for so long. And “I am a legend in my own mind”… hmmmm. if u only have a 5% loss ratio. Most of only half of that loss is 2x daily loss. And you have 30%+ max daily winnings. Oh not forgetting you have up one of your main account by 12x in 2 months, another up 9x. Once u have such stats, u know u are a pro.

    I have brought my account up 3-5x previously b4. and burned them. But was younger, reckless. Now… I am very discipline. My P&L is making great higher highs and higher lows.

  29. Chris

    Over here, i think only AlexP and Gary add value to me. So I hope to add value to those who cant trade well. But I am sure some of those who cant trade will see me as an idiot. Its ok. Because only an idiot will see me as an idiot. The pros will know I am a pro. And that is good enough. AlexP will see me as a pro. Even though I insulted him so many times. lol. And even though I insulted him a lot, I realized he is a pro. A good Pro.

  30. Anthonyo

    US Stocks:
    Dont underestimate the power and scope of the Fed and PPT. All it takes is a repenting by the Fed to say no more rate hikes for foreseeable future, and if needed QE4(under some strange made-up name) and stocks in US will melt Up so fast you will see it on the screen as a blur.

    But Fed is being wishy washy, flakey, and stubborn as judged by Yellen’s worthless blabbering today. She is playing with fire hiking into deflation.

    Yet, her middle finger is much fatter and bigger than the markets middle finger my friend. Lest you forget

  31. Anthonyo

    GOLD:

    We experienced a large bounce in gold.

    First confirmation of a bottom in gold will come: IF a close above $1,187.80 on a Friday.
    Final confirmation will come with a close above $1,368.20 on a month-end basis.
    And baby we are a Loooong ways from that.

    My bet: gold ain’t seen its final low bottom yet baby.

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