Armstrong came today in is blog: “Nothing in price action of gold that has happened recently negates its later penetrating the $1000 mark.”
Then he gave some possibility to another leg higher perhaps to 1309 before turning back. But he seems to be wrong.
I think he flat out missed this one. He’s got a very bad record of missing major turns. Mostly because Socrates is a scam and he’s just a big trend follower. Big trend followers always miss these major inflection points.
At the bottom in 2001 he was calling for gold to go under $200. At the top in 2011 he was calling for gold to reach $5000 by 2015.
I rest my case.
I agree on Socrates; a few weeks ago; I was amazed when I listened on his blog, to a recording of he talking supposedly to Socrates and asking the computer a question on currencies. It was so comic and corny, sounded like a low budget bad 1980s Sci Fi flick. Socrates answering him in a tech computerized voice LOL! I think he has a deep need to self aggrandizement done in a very transparent and tacky way(and silly way too.) Speaks to his insecurities as well to make himself look more than he is to the gullible. He may impress a few inexperienced or naive people of certain layers, but he is really making a fool of himself this way.
Just wanted to note that Gary’s observation and prediction that weekly $GOLD’s Slow Stoch would get overbought came true. It’s at 86.28 now, well above the 80 high water mark. Well done.
So Gary, I get that you’re watching the RSI(5) on daily $GOLD. How about Fibs though – 38%, 50% – I think you’ve watched them before – is that just for bear markets, so for bull markets you watch RSI(5)? I mean, besides watching cycles, sentiment, etc. Thanks.
Historically after a first leg up minres will retrace at least 50% of the rally. So probably back down to the 200 DMA before the daily cycle bottoms.
The funny thing about Armstrong is he seems to be asking his own questions lol
I have always suspected that the “Questions” were with fake names and is own so he could answer them with some irrelevant ancient history on gold, etc He is so archaic sometimes.
anyone who has a movie about himself must be good right?
He is quite egoistic. For no reason!
Armstrong does ask himself his own questions. Tries to make it like he has readers that are ‘smart’ so he can make himself look smart. He has serious mental problems. I guess if someone wanted to be entertained by a homeless man on a street via the internet who babbles to himself, Armstrong would be the next best thing.
I agree with you 100%. He has some self-aggrandizement syndrome, and he is a kook. It shows. Not only he poses as readers asking himself questions; but he tries to answer the phantom readers in a “smarter” (read vague) way. He clouds his replies with vagueness in the hope that it passes for being super intelligent! LOL.
Yeah, he is a kook alright.
That was one nasty reversal to the downside in Gold! I think Gold bears will ultimately prevail, and I would not be counting on any bull market in Gold to rescue one’s poor timing decisions. Bull market has likely been cancelled. Hold and pray is neither a valid trading strategy nor investment strategy, unless maybe you don’t mind being underwater for years at a time! Just sayin’ 🙂
If gold doesn’t consolidate in a trading range soon, it’s probably heading down for a bit, and then will be in the position to be attacked to newlows. A powerful reversal will be as physiological damaging as this last leg up was exhilarating.
If silver hit 5 an ounce, I would be fine with the hold and pray strategy ? It took the dot com bubble crash to accelerate golds rise in 2001, it took the crash in 2008 to push things still higher yet, and even the boom in the 80s was on the tail end of a major crisis in government, with 20% interest rates.
In any case,
It seems every time there is a liquidity crises, where monetary tightening leads to a crash, the resulting reentry of liquidity back into to the market finds it’s way into gold. Will definitely be trading this market, but we haven’t suffered the liquidity crisis yet. I’m liking the clear occilations from overbought to oversold.
Good call on the bottom and the top Gary. To the day exactly on both. I missed both by a day.
I took all my profits off the table last Monday just before close, but will be again looking to pick up some *HGU for the second leg up if it’s able to find support around $22, which is the 50% retracement level and the very top of the consolidation.
I’m also keeping an eye on the 50 day MA; it should line up right underneath — always a good omen!
*HGU is the Canadian equivalency to GDX but X2, and a little less bonkers than NUGT/JNUG. Although those are fun to swing trade with every now and then, if your balls are made of.. Gold in this case, not steel 🙂
When in doubt skip the gold and ASK 8 Ball…ha, ha
8 Ball said “Very doubtful” to “Will GDX get as low as $8 as share?”
I’m gonna eventually prove 8 Ball wrong! LOL
Now that Goldman has made its Pronouncement and scared the S*** out of everyone, it wouldn’t surprise me to see gold resume it’s advance from here.
Used to listen to you on korelin site.
Was glad i found your home site. Really respect your wisdom and insight into the markets and you comfort me with your wisdom. Always seems to make sense everytime i read it. ..
Oil looking interesting here….UWTI, 3 x oil bull, forming island reversal bottom…..$1.45 a share !!
Gold options expiration…..2/ 24
The stock market is looking like it is going to roll over. Crash time?
Really? What market are you looking at? Looks like another bullish day to me. I bet you missed the bottom on the next bull run.
PPT taking Dow to “safe territory” above 17,000. The correction is over for all practical purposes.
Guys, based on certain calculations, INDU rally target since 2009 is around 22000. If dow were to drop to 13k, it would rally much higher than the 22k target. This decline to 15,500 is just nice. A close enough fit. Meaning????
Meaning we have seen the slingshot move, and dow is ready to propel to new highs. Unbelievable now. But lets just not be quick to take profit on longs. Instead, ride it and see how high this sucker could go.
Alex, I think your decision on stocks is correct. But your gold is wrong. Gold minimum 1170+
Its starting to look like yesterday was our only chance to add, or get back in for those who sold miners?
Ralph, I don’t see anything that would cause you to say that. Your reasoning?
Gold futures down a bit but GDX up almost 2% in pre-market indicates strong underlying strength, at least for the moment.
I will say this once: Stocks have bottomed, and last Thursday was the last chance you had to get in the next parabolic move!
Fair enough. But I do see stocks topping in 2-3 years. But for now, it has bottomed for a multi-year low!
Ted, there is only 1 problem. U have always said such things. U seem like a permabull. Any words from a perma, should be ignored.
Playing oil stocks for a bounce, then look out below. Nothing will be spared including spock’s magical juniors.
ChrisG, (are you the same as “Chris” ?) I feel quite comfortable with my gold position scaled as follows with an weighted average of nearly 1139:
– @ 1115 on JAN28 for 50% of a full position
– @ 1158 and 1165 on FEB5 for 25% at each price.
I am convinced gold had NOT to be sold since JAN28 !
It may come down to 1180 though if USX takes a leap on any FED hawkish innuendo but ….even though, unless it breaks down hard OR FED puts a rate hike in one month from now, GOLD IS NOT WORTH SELLING! Swings are useless in my opinion.
PS: getting ready to buy oil too as it reaches 31.50
….actually swings on gold since JAN28 (and in general on any asset confidently entrenched in a trend) have been worse than useless: they’ve been (and are in such a market environment) counter-productive, they’ve borne opportunity costs in terms of opportunities lost while hunting for small waves instead of relying on the LARGER underlying wave of the new main trend.
Yes, Alex, using different computer, hence different name. Will look to synchronize the name. Hey, gold could even drop to 1167 ish…. monkey god!!! lol
even there I would be on profit with my most expensive [and last] pyramiding at 1165 on FEB5 😉
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