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I agree that USD selloff could propel gold higher, but not necessarily, because confidence in stocks and oil is building. Which in turn could reduce safe haven demand for gold.
yes, indeed, Gary –> since last Friday it was not worth it buying gold only selling it to wait re-building the long position by Tuesday/Wednesday when miners and gold put their DCLs.
Stocks to grow up big now –> pullbacks will be literally inexistent in the days to come.
Retail investor long gold here .
Smart money has been long the s&p for the past 10 days, since the sky began falling .
My cycles tells a different story, we will soon see, Symmetrical trianle in Gold breaking … up or down ?
Hmm it looks like it’s breaking down …
Learn how to read a chart. Your bias is glaring.
S&p / dow shorts are being eviscerated these past 10 days since s&p 1850 when they were calling for a crash to 1500-1600 . Short covering in the stock markets to accelerate .
EUR/USD testing bottom again, i think it is so late in the cycle because of Brexit fears.
yeap, a shorts squeeze will emerge in stocks to drive them higher from here day after day –> I dare say really smart money had not entered before 2 days ago: THEY WAITED FOR THE PULLBACK DAYS TO OCCUR BEFORE STARTING TO BUY 2 DAYS AGO, YESTERDAY, TODAY AND IN THE DAYS TO COME.
Stock retailers have either entered too quickly, bottom-guessing, or they will not trust this intermediary cycle advance.
Shill comment as usual.
Yep! Sticking with the materials. Climbing: long ago almost bought it twice. “Be prepared, work hard and hope for a little luck.” … Also works for trading.
Tuesday will be day12 for USX – a pretty good timing for delivering a top allowing gold to chart its DCL.
Head fake day. I expect dow in the red today.
So.. if SP breaks down 1800 in few days or wks.. gold up to sky ?? What about.. if this goes up all goes aup.. and viceversa ??? Will be around to check if Gold goes up skyrocketing or goes down aglong with indexes ?? However I agree with currencies.. Euro correcting now but will reverse.. and Dollar opposite. Thks
Dollar unlikely to drop much in view of ECB in march. It is in a waiting mode?
And lovely chart, but notice that silver did not make higher highs vs the top on the left. Ahha…. Yet initially , silver underperform gold. But not like this. Silver should make a higher high, and yet underperform gold. Especially given the huge gold rally. But, it is what it is . Trade what u see, not what u think. So, dont take this maybe bull, as a baby bull
G/S ratio just hit 82.5…
wtf…. gold selling off, stocks selling off, bonds selling off… so what is up today?
Who says something has to be up today?
Stocks are on the up-move.
For the first time I see clear defensives on the defensive and offensives on the offensive –> clearly smart money are buying.
It is only retailers producing selling pressure as :
– some of them dump in a classic action of overhead supply and
– others, who think of themselves as “master contrarians”, are shorting the market.
Both categories will get upset.
DOW in the red, see folks this shill has no clue he is just here trolling, Follow his advice at your own risk…
Alex is right, stocks can rally a bit further. I have short-term more confidence in oil, though. Playing with stocks is dangerous here, as is playing with gold. Little upside, big downside. Short-term upside in oil is higher, thus better risk-reward.
Bill, one can get the scent of a regular retailer by the way that retailer shares his “arguments”.
In the end, i suspect one of them is wrong. Becos bonds, gold should be right, ie stocks is wrong? It has done a gap fill, so could be on its way to go up in the end?
lol, Ya Alex, i thought so. Lets see
Thanks Alex, ” think of themselves as “master contrarians”,” … (( : …still will short it but with small amount I can handle if it go red…
you can work out pilot trades in any direction as long as you have stop orders implemented, a clear view of your capital-at-risk per that trade and a minimum target that makes sense from a risk-reward perspective.
from this point of view, a scalper who knows what he does (or a trader who effectively employs also a scalping strategy) can make money shorting a rising market.
Good luck, Victor!
Bear needs to put in a weekly shooting star on GDX to declare winning…we shall see by the end of today.
Copper was on its way to a 5% rally or more, but it tanked, failed. Bcos I suspect it sensed that gold and silver is going to drop big today. Luckily I saw something is not right and sold my copper. Hope it doesnt rally much in the end. Lets see.
I’m pretty sure stocks have completed their 7 YCL. The PPT will prevent a break of 1812. That means oil has also completed it’s 3 YCL and gold completed it’s 8 YCL back in Dec.
It’s time for everything to go up together. That has been the norm for most of the last 16 years.
Gary I completely believe in your analysis on everything is about to go up together but for the short term silver isnt a good indicator. Gold will make its DCL next week and it looks ready to make a false breakdown under 1191. While many are waiting on the side line for 1140 gold I think we may not get there because if we do silver will make new lows (below dec) the gold/silver ratio is extremely high 82+? which means silver is going to lead on leg two up, but before that it is signaling further weakness. market tends to throw people off to the extreme degree. look for silver to channel down to 14.70 and may even hit 14.20
I will be watching the mining sectors to see how low it can pull back. by end of next week I may begin re-entering my positions for long term play
I’m taking the other side of the trade! 🙂
Exactly. Traders that continue trying to time short term moves in a new bull market just end up selling at bottoms and buying at tops.
The only way to tell about gold is this. Buy when it has pulled back into buy zone. It should behave orderly then, and start to rally to new highs. If it doesnt, and breakdown, say bye bye.
ANd go and look at GLD. THe super high volume bar. Its candlestick showed spinning top. If it isnt gold, if its a company, many would have said that it is a blow off top!!! I am gonna trade with an open mind. Let price action dictates.
there is immense downside in gold & silver here, gold will fall to 400-500/oz this year and silver to 4-5/oz. The risk/reward is extremely unfavorable here, like dancing on the edge of the volcano.
it took me some time to realize this (based on the views of contrarianadvisor), and now I try to warn others.
Ill just leave this right here
Deutsche Bank analysts have put out a note advising that now is the time to buy gold. They write in part
Buying some gold as ‘insurance”is warranted…We would…argue that given the plethora of negative deposit rates globally, the holding cost of gold is now negligible in many jurisdictions, and therefore gold deserves to be trading at elevated levels versus many other assets.
Exactly. Major banks advising to buy gold. Bulls sprouting everywhere. Need I say more? Until recently, the banks claimed gold was going below 1000. They will reverse their opinion as quicky when gold starts falling. Leaving the retail investor in bewilderment.
the retail investor is alway becoming enthousiastic near the top.
It can go to zero and i dont care. When it is in the buy zone, I am going to buy. The price action will tell me baby bull, or bullshit bull.
Crystal-clear foot-print of smart money buying in stocks!
Each and every expectation on mine on all markets’ movement has occurred lately.
Adding more to stocks pilots as well as to treasuries short.
Don’t panic, remember its OPX day for metals…nothing to see here…at all!
Just loaded a metric ton of DUST in the hope that golds bear isn’t over, the USD’s IC is just starting and that mining companies are headed for bankruptcy court over the next 12 months! Go bears… Go $USD… Go DUST! ?
Thanks for all you do. Should we back up a truck or just nimble?
One final plunge to shake out the non-believers…
believing is a religious thing, it has no place in investing…
I’m always amazed at the level of stubborness [and occasional stupidity] on this forum, haha! Some of you need to go back to school and learn this shit proper ?
Folks, Gold is consolidating for another leg up — it’s written all over the charts! Pull your head out of your Ass and open your eyes ?
Calling other people stubborn and stupid… ?
If that is not a tell, what is…?
Yeah buddy.. Some people like to argue just for the sake of arguing, hence my comment on the ‘occasional stupidity’ of some 🙂
Short term chart set up is bullish and anybody trying to short Gold at this particular juncture is just being stubborn and asking for a kick in the teeth!
Get it, got it, good!
well, we will find out sooner rather than later, and I would not short at this juncture either. But no reason to call them ignorant or stupid. Got that as well?
There are two sides to every trade and investment thesis. The “baby bull” thesis might have been just another countertrend rally in the context of a secular bear. Nobody knows, but the boats loaded w/ bulls, sentiment is dramatically more bullish than it was in mid-January and the USD is rallying in the hopes that the FOMC will raise rates in March. Regardless, the setup w/ the USD making a higher high and gold’s DCL (cycle count in question) it doesn’t make sense to be wildly bullish at these levels. Should gold double top at $1250, rollover through the December low a lot of folks are going to see their paper profits disappear and turn into massive losses. Frankly, it’s harder to be a bear than a bull given the setup and typically the harder trade is the right trade. ?
THIS BEAR RALLY IN GOLD IS TURNING INTO DUST !!!
I will save your words MuffinTop 🙂 and yes I am fully invested in a dusty paper with a x3 leverage.
Have a nice weekend folks.
If you’re trying to make a day trade and you’re working off a 5 minute chart then by all means — knock yourself out!
But the bottom line is this.. Short/Medium Term set up in Gold is bullish and anybody trying to short this mothafucka is asking for an Ass kicking! It’s all about managing risk and right now you could potentially be taking the wrong side of the trade.
To each his own buddy boy 🙂
I see the potential for gold rising toward 1300/oz short-term, but that does not make me feel bullish at all. The most important information for me is that we are in a deflationairy trend which is accelerating towards a bust. USD will appreciate very strongly in that scenario, which will trump any safe haven demand for gold, as lots of investors will be forced to liquidate positions and debt. The longer term story for gold is fully intact, but a short-lived, extreme bust will shatter a lot of confidence and hope.
Gary’s original thesis (‘surviving the last months of the bear market’) was spot-on.
The euro is 35 days into it’s daily cycle and now people want to short gold?
Seems like a risky strategy to me.
everyone’s street will be paved with gold if it was that simple and obvious. like I said earlier, the market will throw people off it’s back. you called it a baby bull and the average investor will get shaken out easily. the ideal scenario is to see gold gap down monday and sell off entire week as stock market advances. this is best trap ever because all the technical trader will begin going buliish even turning all the shorts around.
then when gold gets beaten to a pulp after a week or so, the stock market still crashes in March (crash season) to a lower low, then thats when the big next leg up (wave 3) will be extremely powerful, so and so it will shoot pass 1306 with one stroke and even tries to flirt with the 1400 area then we consolidate break higher for wave 5 then head into a multi month correction ABC follow by another 5 waves which is even stronger than the previous one in sept/oct
There u go, weekly hammer 2 weeks ago and now weekly shooting stars for miners!!! A potent bearish reversal here for the coming weeks…
Opps, I meant weekly “hanging man” 2 weeks ago…not hammer”