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Well said here here! ??
If… If… If… Nobody knows what comes next! ???
MASSIVE sectors rotation underway !!!
INDEXES CHART DOJIS TODAY BECAUSE ALL DEFENSIVES ARE SOLD BIG, BIG TIME BY SMART MONEY!
huuuge red candles throughout all defensives, across the board, while all offesnsives grow big!
Long stocks is the place to be.
Today has been, what I call, SMART MONEY’S SWITCH-ON DAY – the day that they’ve turned bullish instantly, just as I was commenting before that smart money had not started buying earlier than 2 days ago, and now they are rotating 180 degrees their strategy: RISK-ON!
i going to sleep. Trends are clear! no use wasting my time in front of the computer.
Have a great weekend!
sweet dreams Alex!
LOL! They won’t be so bullish when Gold eventually goes below 1000, and GDX below $10 a share. 🙂
Gold/silver ratio keeps rising, 83.2 as we speak.
That ratio is going to go lower, but not because silver is going up. Gold is going to catch down to silver and oil (soon) and we might get that 16:1 ratio, but you aren’t going to like the prices. ?
Gary how do you explain that silver is not confirming the move in gold?
Ill help you, look around the world, Central banks and the like Lease and trade Gold as money, Silver is money but its also an Industrial metal and that in lable itself hurts silver.
Gold is money everything else is……. you fill in the blank.
Nice. 100% right, gold is money. So many miss this concept. There should be a repricing very soon and silver will be a second derivative off of this move.
It will eventually. Look what happened in 2007 right before silver went to 50. It looked like silver was breaking down. Smart money is taking silver down so they can get on board. Retail is dumping their oz. To them.
to me, silver seems to have topped and rolling over.
Any questions, and Gary I thinks its high time you start moderating the trolls, its getting ridiculous.
Yes starting with the head troll >>>Bill.
Silver is doing exactly what I was hoping Gold would do before the next leg up — interesting.
Wow, SLV has retraced more than 50% of it’s move since the Dec low … approaching 61.8% even. I wish GLD and GDX were doing that – making a clear correction – so that I can get on board.
… also I wonder why SIL isn’t correcting much w/SLV down so much.
Maybe you should pick up some Silver ?
Any kind of Silver under $20 is a steal!
Watch GLD Bill it may be forming a Bear flag, you may get your window of opportunity.
Hope so. GLD’s highest high was 10 days ago. The daily GDX chart’s parabolic price rise, and overbought RSI and MACD, make it look like it’s going to have a fast and spectacular plunge down.
But Gary’s thoughts that we’ve been in a manipulated market, and the beachball rising to the surface, all sound pretty darn correct as well. We could just melt up, making it impossible for anyone to get on board.
I am still struggling w/what to use for a buy trigger in case of a melt up.
… and how to manage risk, since price gaps up and down so much – I hate gaps!
nows the time to buy silver & silver stocks
Gary, If there is PPT, why do we have 2000 & 2009 stock crash?
The PPT learned their lesson. After the crash has already happened it’s too late.
It is traditional for silver to lag gold in the early part of a precious metals bull. When it starts to outperform and the go parabolic as in 2011, that serves as notice that the wider precious metals bull is very long in the tooth.
Just as a footnote, I recall the top of that 2011 silver blow off top when it was 50% above its 200 dma and Gary speculating that it was just gonna keep climbing – it crashed a couple days later, too fast for anyone to get out without big losses…
Silver hasn’t made its low yet – In 2001 gold bottomed @ $255 in Feb/April – silver kept going down until November 2001. So gold may well have bottomed, but not silver.
China has not devalued yet but it will – BIG TIME – All the smart hedge funds are on this strategy and they are right – Soros, Dalio, Bass, Tepper and the smart advisers: Zulauf, Faber and so forth – every one of them. What does that do? China is the marginal buyer of commodities. Commodities are priced in dollars. When the Yuan craters, that will mean China has far less money to buy the same amount of commodities. China is losing reserves right now at $100 billion a month and they have to put a stop to it. They will devalue and that will have consequences.
We are in deflation. The FED is crazy but it will raise rates in March for sure unless stocks crater and they are not. If the jobs report is terrible – 100,000 or less the FED may blink but otherwise they will raise. The market thinks one and done – they are in for a shock.
Keep all this in mind going forward.
Gold rallied over 200 dollars after the last rate hike. Another one should send it over 1400.
I believe you are correct Gary…but you have said they will do more QE…
do you still think they will instead of hiking another .25% >>>>????
The Fed is run by baboons.
Gary on the chart: “Now it has blasted through two higher highs, and yet traders still doubt the bull.”
My answer to this for me is, a higher high is great, but I need to see a higher low, before I take off my trader hat and put on my investor hat, and buy/hold for 5 yrs.
But, yea, the wait for that higher low is KILLING me!
That’s why God made stair climbers. 😉
I have 2 more fears that the bottom may not be in.
1) these markets are rigged – and this higher high in gold may be manufactured – I see this in chess all the time – the opponent pushes a pawn, I take their bishop, only to then loose my queen – DECEPTION is a winning strategy – give a little, take a lot – one has to always be suspicious, or else loose the game.
2) this recent higher high may not be a higher high – look at the weekly chart – notice that yes it’s higher than the high last Oct, but not Jan – so the peaks between last Jan and Oct may be “minor” highs of lower significance, and the Jan high may be much more significant than the Oct one – look at a 5 yr weekly chart, and you’ll see lots and lots of times when a “higher high” was made, only to break down to a lower low – look at 2014 when lower highs were made in the fall, followed by a higher high in Jan of 2015, which turned out to be an important *lower* high overall – this means that not all swing highs are of the same importance – and in fact on a 5 yr weekly chart, this current high still looks like a lower high.
i still think stocks will roll over some time early March. everyone is so caught up in comparing this to the last recession will see the market turn out to be exactly opposite. stock moving higher yes but not until it makes a final 5th wave down to complete the wave iv correction. This will throw everyone off and once spx breaks 1812, everyone will sell into big money picking up cheap shares.
the panic attack for a lower low (not a crash) but a fake one will rocket gold pass 1300. but while the stock market continues to gain strength next week it will slowly grind gold into a short term capitulation. under 1200, how low will she go? no one knows. but when she falls under 1191, it will be time to buy
Too many experts and know-it-alls on this board, Gary. Adios.
Lots of gold/miners short here!
Also Jordan Ray Byrne bought DUST today.
while its too risky to short gold but it is hard to ignore the YEN/gold relationship
I have been following this and it has been moving as close to it as anything I have ever seen. Gary provides the extra confirmation during the run, I follow this chart for pull backs
Marco, where did you find out Jordan buy Dust today? His video yesterday 2/25 did not mention. I got in Dust premarket and out at noon since the drop was not impulsive. I think a small rebound Mon, then grinding down
He sent an email today to his subscribers.
This is the same guy that bought DUST right at the bottom….
Yes he is!
Let’s hope he will continue to do the same if the results will also be the same 🙂
Jordan’s record is dead wrong to spotty. He is just too green behind the lips for this business, and its hows.
Enoch is right about the higher high. Gold did not clear 1310, the jan 2015 peak. So still a maybe bull only.
I’ve been accumulating a great deal of physical silver over the past year, so don’t get me wrong, I certainly wouldn’t mind if this bull got things underway, I am just not convinced of that yet.
Every major silver peak of the past half decade has been followed by a significant correction, which we are in beginning of. If silver reverses the correction here, it will be a very very unusual move. Is there a good argument as to why this time will be different for silver? However, since silver has corrected significantly, if it makes a higher low, what a great confirmation…but if it smashes through that low…bull market might be delayed.
If there is anything gold bugs know, it is that silver is by far the better value right now, virtually every commentator says so, so why are goldbugs not picking up truckloads of silver? Because they are not all convinced of this bull market yet. The reason Gold has been so much stronger is because all the retail boobs have been encouraged in by Cramer and his ilk, and they are some of the flakiest “investors.” When they catch a fright, the bulls will get one last scare before this is all over.
I have a feeling the Fed will keep raising for the time being, and we will get a deeper pullback once the Feds language starts to appear a tad more hawkish than lately. We like to believe the Fed is full of incompetent boobs, but they have plays left.
Sub $1000 gold
Most major commentators got the bull top wrong. Most didn’t believe the pullback would be so significant. Are they right this time?
I dont share Alex enthusiasm in stocks. Today looks fishy. Be careful. And ALex, u mention stocks and gold may start to go together. Well, maybe in march…. they go down together!! lol expect the unexpected.
Yeah, I’m thinking they might go down together for a little aswell. I don’t think the fed’s have total control (they think they do), TPTB are about to chew up and spit out the central planners. The fed’s have to take the fall, otherwise why would anybody cry out for the new plan (NWO)
Wow,look at crude. Tuck its head like a frightened turtle. On massive volume today. Could be the end of the bounce.
Big Selloff Offers a Great Opportunity to Buy This Stock
Gold COT is out. Sucks big time
Nope still not bearish. Commercial short position is only 283,000 contracts.Even bear market rallies need over 300,000 before topping.
During bull markets it can go as high as 360,000 contracts short before an intermediate top forms.
Gary, it’s the net short figures. 160k is bearish enough
ALso, PMs tend to move together. Before Gold bull gets too excited, go take a look at platinum. Rejected nicely at 200ema. No higher highs.
Platinum acting alot like silver. Gold performing slightly better, indicating something not right.
Silver and gold are performing in a similar manner.
They are both up about 15%-18% and were both down by about the same in 2015.
Both metals were basically flat compared to their 2014 closing prices and now silver is selling down.
Nothing unusual here.
For oil, why are so many attempting to catch a bottom here? I think there is a much higher probability that oil will be capped around $35/$37 and find a new low and then trading a that range for quite some time. Not interesting here as a trader because there are better opportunities elsewhere.
Finally, I have seen many times in other posts that this 7YR low was abandoned, then re-instated and now currently being dropped again, while there is talk of a “bubble phase.” It seems like it becomes valid when stocks are near a bottom and invalid when stocks are near a top. This is a money losing game. The market was extremely oversold and this bounce, in no way, initiates a change of trend to bullish. Economic trends are poor, earnings estimates are being lowered, debt is rising. Why would the market “pay up” for declining multiples? The market has already paid up for this in the last 2 years, why would it do it again? Gold holding the $1,225 support while silver declines tells me their is concern in “risk” land, including stocks. Just some things to think about.
That one is easy. More global QE.
Hope you enjoyed your climbing.
Saw some of your lifting videos, good deal. Just installed two brackets on basement wall for squats.
Anyhow, more QE? Yes, i agree as rates increase, the FED will continue QE to control the rise. Gold should do well.
Disagree with you on stocks, agree on gold. Hey, that’s what makes a market.
Old school TA. Always paid attention to what Louise Yamada, Peter Brandt and Tom Demark have to say about which way the market is blowing: “Some technical analysts have declared that the current market construction is analogous to 2011/2012 and will be similarly resolved by a continuation of the dominant bull trend. I completely disagree.’ (Peter Brandt). All say the recent rise is a bull trap, 1620 this Spring. Ignored all of this and up to my eyeballs in PM and material stocks (steel, oil, uranium). I was warned. We shall see.
Gold: support 1180/1212 – resistance 1265/1300 — Bullish
Buy and hold:
There u go, “HUI weekly hang-man 2 weeks ago and now weekly shooting stars!!!” A potent bearish reversal here for the coming weeks…Follow the weekly candle-stick and thou shall not be led astray!
And, on Gold’s weekly chart, it’s a classic weekly “harami”…i reckon this is no bull-flag here as claimed by so many people.
The gold COT still hasn’t reached at least 300,000 contracts short. Even bear marekt rallies need at least that before topping. During bull runs the commercial short position has gone as high as 360,000 contracts short before the intermediate cycle tops.
I’m going to guarantee we still have one more higher high in gold after this consolidation/DCL is finished. And the HUI will at least test the top of the cup pattern at 180 before a multi-week correction into May.
Agree. People get too involved in the COT, but when the trend changes from bearish to bullish, obviously the COT is going to look bearish, because people need to accumulate positions.
“I’m going to guarantee we still have one more higher high in gold after this consolidation/DCL is finished.”
That’s exactly what I said but ‘oh my goodness’ people are stubborn around here, and sensitive..! They just can’t give into the possibility that this bear market could potentially be over and if not over yet, then at least recognize that there is [or was] a lot of money to be made on this very sexy looking counter trend rally.
Folks, I can’t say it enough.. it’s important to be nimble. Some of you are so hell bent on arguing the other side of the coin, that you are completely blinded by it and ultimately missing out on a pocket full of money :/
For those of you buying DUST at this particular juncture; you need to have your head examined, Lol! Harsh words, I know, but true nevertheless. Risk management in these types of Market is paramount!
I tell it like it is — sorry 🙂
So who are all these large speculators in the COT charts that always seem to get fleeced, buying high and selling low?
Gary if the dollar is going lower since it made a double top, won’t this be bad for the SM? Or do they not necessarily correlate at times?
Miners and stocks are shorts of a lifetime up here. As always, playing it low risk with a small position in DUST and OTM puts on SPY.
I still believe the global deflation will accelerate shortly and destroy this goldbug psychology and belief in the power of QE and criminal central banks.
I agree with Gary’s US stocks and Oil prognosis of upward direction after they have made their respective cycle lows.
However, I disagree on USD and gold:
I think gold could easily fall back to 1040 or lower going forward which would make this move look like a spike which corrected itself soon enough afterwards. A lower low than 1040 could mark the beginning of the end for gold’s bear market. But if oil has bottomed, gold could not be far behind.
USD will resume its rally supported by trillions of dollars of foreign money pouring into USD as the currency of last resort.
Do not follow Jordan Roy-Byrne he is more often wrong than right. He bought DUST at Gold bottom in fear for a breakdown. I think he is inspired by the Sprott’s and they suck at timing. Picking miners is a different story, I think he has a good strategy there.
Ok there is something about JPY/USD and Gold. I think that correlation is much more important than EUR/USD.
And yes I am sticking my head out here I think that Robert”The Chartfreak”Alexander and Gary Savage will be proven wrong next week, This is just for fun, with a little bit serious stuff in it of course. We learn from each other and get better at predicting the moves in markets.
I am a beginner at this and I’ve only traded part time for 1½year, so far so good. I am more interested in mathematics/geometrical stuff than patterns like bull flag, head and sholder, oh it’s a doji. That’s the symptoms not what is really going on behind the curtain. An Elliott Wave and W D Gann fan too.
You are correct on the Yen/ gold relationship. It’s been heavily correlated for much of this downward move in gold over the last few years. It’s a fund carry trade play and profits are used to buy S and P futures contracts by institutions. That is a huge reason why the market has moved how it has for multiple years at this point. The thing is, IF that carry is now unwinding then gold will have put in Gary’s bottom and the leverage used is huge and they will get killed staying in this on the wrong side for two long! We’ll see.
JB-R is a timid gold perma bull. And green behind the lip too. He is not a reliable source for analysis. He is usually too late and gets it at the end of the trend when it s done already. And that name, oooph! Cant even read or remember it…what IS that? lol
Things are so great that Goldcorp Dropped 12.78% – Q4 Loss Misses, Sales Meet Views; Sees Lower Production in FY16, Cuts Dividend 66.7%! ???
Imagine what GG’s going to do (file bankruptcy) when gold drops to $500 an ounce in 2016/7. Game day bucket go BOOM! ?
Stefan .. what if Gary is right and you are wrong? Then you will take it as a learning experience? 🙂
From the bottom of this move through today, there has not been one closing price reversal (higher high then a closing reversal) which leads me to believe that we are soon to be on our way to 23-24.
What say ye?
That’s using the daiiy chart on gdx, sorry.
Now for those who said silver is doing cup and handle. Go look at silver now. Still cup and handle. Dont imagine things guys. Bottom line, let me stress again, until silver makes higher high, doubt all rallies.
Another bubble phase call just like December. How did that work out. 60% rally in a month and you don’t want to take profits?
Hopefully the cocky goldbugs here have a risk management plan. Coming deflationary bust will likely clean most of them out.
When I look at GBP, Euro, they look lower. Ie. EU, and the euro project is doomed. Seems like armstrong is going to be right. So USD going up, then PMs, gold silver dying after this bounce.
SM in biggest bull cycle of your life time, this only a sever correction. Lows are in for this year.
Crude going to $45 by mid summer then after correction to $60 by end of year.
It looks like gold has bottomed but lows could be tested again this year. 2017 should be the big gold year.
physical can be bought at any of these prices now, average in.
cot for silver bearish. Cots for gold Moving that way.
gold might make a shooting star high, it’s possible but bankers still in charge.
What to do?
For me- short 3x gold etf and 80% in dust.
Still have long term stocks to hold.
I Like your style baby.
Altho I think $60 oil overshoot too much. I say it will bounce between $26 and $40 for a while (correction in time.)
Stocks in US take a bath in March(final) before the big manic rally later.
Gold, its heading to 1179 -1173 and below one way or another, it just has to look like false spike in teh chart later. Lower lows still possible into May/June baby.
Elliott (wave) is screaming “Big Drop Ahead! – Days Away!” for the stock market. Beware.
Good just sold my 3x s&p etf 😉
You sold it too early. Early March is when the rout may begin in stocks.
Should have given more detail.
Sold 3x s&p to take my initial investment back. Sold to take 50% of profits back as well.
LEFT 50% of profit in 3x S&P to ride the wave, risk free 😉
Hope that helps .
Thanks for your posts as it is great to get a discussion on here.
Thanks to Gary for allowing it.
No the chart is wrong,
Gold COT Report – Futures
Commercial Total Short