Just like I warned the PPT came in Friday to paint the weekly charts with a reversal. This has the potential to delay the 7 YCL again. If so then it is going to have ramifications for oil, currencies and gold.
Just like I warned the PPT came in Friday to paint the weekly charts with a reversal. This has the potential to delay the 7 YCL again. If so then it is going to have ramifications for oil, currencies and gold.
Well that totally sucks!!!
Yes it does. We need stocks to finish the move into the 7 YCL. The longer it gets delayed the longer we stay stuck in these frustrating trading ranges.
Maybe this won’t matter and Tuesday the market opens with a huge gap down and negates the intervention, but I’m not betting on it. It’s tough to fight the Fed’s printing press.
Excellent analysis Gary . Calling it like you see it . Keep up the great work .
I wouldn’t be surprised if we head up to s&p 1965 in the next 2-3 weeks , as everyone is so bearish on the markets right now . , Even if the stock markets rally up strongly before the march fomc meeting that they do not raise rates . No way they would . The Markets are way too fragile right now . They’ll cite global issues ; china etc .
Gary: Think the gold seasonal’s play out with the next buy date July 4th. Will be interesting to see if we get the change of leadership ( cyclicals) I’ve been anticipating. Anyway, It’s always interesting.
Enjoy your side bar videos as I used to be into 3 of them: power lifting, climbing and free diving. Now I just scuba and free dive. Love the ocean. Thanks … they are fun to watch.
Guys, there can be bounces, but we will make new lows. Dont worry too much about FED printing presses. Why? Because of DollarYen. It is already casts in stone. Dollar Yen gonna break 110 after this bounce. So, market will crash, and gold rally.
Long tails are very common. Algo’s just trying to get price back inside weekly BB.
Pretty hard for the herd to be overly bullish on general stocks when heading into a FED rate hike in March…. the manufactured stock market rally will be short lived until the FED gives much firmer guidance to it’s intentions in March, IMO.
What this ALL boils down too is what took place on Thursday……. The “so called rumor” from the UAE regarding OPEC’s intervention media newswire at ironically a critical breaking point of the SPX. We’ve heard these shenanigans time and time again in the past just as the last one a few weeks ago was all out BS.
Think about it you are basing this one particular incident in your prognosis today I think you gotta “check yourself before you wreck yourself.”
Looks like the risk of major war escalations in Middle East now … oil may rally next week, but who’s gonna be overly bullish on general stocks when World War 3 is about to break out… not to mention the huge uncertainty about the FED next month…
I love the PPT! A rally is just what we need to load up on the shorts again, Yes, I ignored your advice not to short the market and made out very well. I will begin shorting again at 1920 level. In the meantime, shorting TLT currently looks like the best bet for profit.
Whats your thesis on the 1920 level Dan?
Silly question. A crystal ball, of course.
I hope this double bottom holds and we get a rally in S&P next week. Gold will come down and then all the people on the sidelines who have been watching in frustration will pile in and up we go again. Just in time for the S&P to turn around and come cranking back down, take out the new line in the sand at 1812 and down she goes. I don’t see how this potential double bottom rally in S&P is bad for gold in the short term. Wouldn’t we want this rally in the S&P and oil to continue through next week, let gold drop and come down from overbought? That was we can add to our positions and get new longs on board as well?
I found this article interesting. Art and Shipping Bellwethers Send An Ominous Signal
That would be what I expect to happen. Just a short term bounce in stocks and a short term correciton in gold. But if that intermediate trend line gets broken all bets are off.
I think you had better get the kids out of the pool since TPTB and the PPT just dropped a big ? into the markets! If you look at the daily swing highs in US Bonds and daily swing lows in $USD, $WTIC, $SPX we may have just witnessed gold’s IC top and are on the cusp of a mean reversion trade. Regardless, we cannot get complacent in our desire to be Old Turkeys ? and get back to a “buy & hold” mentality. There are to many variables, scenarios in which the current setup(s) could play out and given the fact that the early bird has already gotten the worm (i.e. I’ve made a decades worth of market gains in 3 short weeks) I’m personally content to letting the cycles and price action showing me the way! ✌️
The rumor of major war escalation in Middle East; appears to becoming fact;
Erdogan appears to be using the George Bush Jr. playbook (as can be seen in the video) … this has ugly written all over it, IMO;
The PPT is gonna need a much bigger boat come Tuesday morning, IMO.
They’re just shaking out the weak bears before the big move down into sub-1600 in the S & P!
…just like they’re shaking out the weak metals-bears before the big move down into sub-1000 Gold, and eventual single-digits in GDX 🙂
Did anybody consider the hui chart sure looked like a head and shoulders formation coming into Feb? Well in hind sight we can say this has been negated.
*** Asian markets will open down big on Sunday night and on Monday night!
This Game of Pain will continue!
….either that….or they shake out more weak bears first!
Turkey warns ‘major escalation’ is coming as it shells Aleppo;
One intelligence source in the US, who must remain anonymous – told SuperStation95 “This has disaster written all over it.”;
Hmmm, war expanding in the middle East? Might be good to buy oil derivatives.
Nice comparison chart by Jordan Roy Byrne. It shows the correction in gold will be mild and plenty of upside to come!
Wasn’t this the same guy calling for $950?
The first correction after a bottom has historically been a 50% retracement. Assumming the HUI gets to maybe 170 that would be a drop to 135, or a 20% decline.
Yep, Jordy Roy Byrne kept everybody out at exactly the time Gary was getting his subs invested for the rip your face off rally!
Yes he was calling for $950 and he also were equipped for this shorting miners with DUST.
Unfortunately for him he lost lots of money with DUST and he is now hoping for a correction to enter .
He has been wrong but he is a nice guy and he is good on stock picking.
I think Jordan is a twat to be honest. I like the chart though. Everyone’s favorite chartist Rambus was ultra bearish at the bottom as well. I was bullish at the bottom and posted so at the lows in the miners on this site. There will be a correction to be sure but the analog chart shows it might not be too severe.
Rambus was not bullish at the bottom.
Bearish at the bottom.
he is dump guy, never listen to him. He missed the big rally of gold. He was still bearish when gdx made new low, while Gary pointed out it was fake breakdown and got in.
For those of you that follow SOYBEANS:
Gary, what has happened was on high probability to occur and…i do not think it was any PPT; it was caused simply by a level of extreme fear.
On FEB6, 8 days ago I had forecast this happening, quote:
“Stock market is perfectly set for a demi-crash next week.
That will be the ICL via a very shortened daily cycle.
While the ICL is to come next week, we can have no idea as to how much the market can fall in the next several sessions!
A strong uptrend will ensue in its aftermath.”
….secondly, we’ve been in this IC since AUG24…for 5 months and a half –> an ICL had to be due in a pretty short while and it came on Thursday.
This intermediate rally will be capped by the support of the 200dma of VIX
I have to disagree. There is no such thing as a 16 day cycle. There is no scenario where the market completes a final ICL before the March FOMC meeting. At least not naturally.
There is simply too much at stake for the government to give up without a fight. They’ve printed 5 trillon dollars to pump up asset prices and pull the economy out of the depression it was sinking into. If you really believe they are just going to sit on the sidelines and watch all of that go down the drain I have some beach front property I want to sell you in Las Vegas.
I’m going to tell you exactly how this is going to play out. The government will continue to try and prop up the markets with occasinal interventions like we saw Friday. They aren’t going to work and the market will continue to fall. At some point the Fed will panic and begin QE4. QE4 will cause everything to rise. Stocks will enter a bubble first. When that pops the liquidity will then flow into commodities causing a massive inflationary shock that collapses everything into a deflationary depression that will take years to recover from.
Mark my words. This is our future in the years ahead.
One thing that nobody is thinking about is the “petro-dollar” and the world’s desire to move away from it and to a more equitable (SDR) fiat currency system especially Russia, India, China and Iran. If we are really in a global fiat currency war, the Federal Reserve can manufacture a global depression an flight to safety bid into the USD and US Treasury Bonds. Sure it’s going to create pressure US multinational corporations, but it’s going to bankrupt nation states who wish to abandon the USD for a more equitable fiat (SDR) currency system. I’m not looking for NIRP or any additional rate cuts by the FOMC. The FED wields an enormous amount of power and they’ve learned something by raising rates just one time… They can essentially take down the entire global financial markets and nation states that are not friendly to the US (Russia, Iran and China), save the USD as the world’s reserve currency with little to no financial impact (yet) on the domestic economy. If the FOMC raises interest rates 4X’s in 2016 like nobody thinks they should or will they can essentially force a debt deflation on the world that we haven’t seen since the Great Depression, saving the USD as the world’s reserve currency, expanding NIM (net interest margin) for the banks in the US and collapsing the economies in Russia, China, Iran and Europe making the US economy the only place capital will flow! ???
Here is an example of what the FED has created with one measly rate hike: http://traderdan.com/?p=9549
If the FED were to hike again in March it would accelerate the derisking process and unwind of global carry trades. ?
lol yes Alex. Stop attributing things to manipulation. Dont people know market is constantly being manipulated??? Its just that when market is really due to drop , that it will drop, and when it is due to rally, it will rally. The constant manipulation is already constantly being factored into the charts.
The best of the best is the proclaimed gold manipulation. Err… then why did gold rally from $200 to $2000??? Dudes, it being manipulated up, and its because market is due to go up. Likewise when it plunged to 1050.
yes, Chris, manipulation is over-rated as a driving market force.
Gary, I agree with you on the inflationary times to come, first in stocks and then in commodities –> this is a trend of events that also occured in the fifties, i.e. at the beginning of the Kondratieff cycle markets are now trying to digest through its completion.
Once the new K-wave ushers, we will experience “the roar of the new ’50s” so to say – the decade to propell from poverty or middle class into multi-millionaires club the new Darvas’ and William Oneils type of market operators.
BUUT, shortened daily cycles have occured at the end of bear markets, it is actually rather more frequent than rare that the last daily cycles of bear markets are very shortened.
Of course, we are not here at the end of stocks bear market, we are about 70% through it –> ONCE THE 200WMA OF NYSE COMPOSITE GOT BROKEN ON JAN8 … LADY MARKET NEEDS AT LEAST ONE MORE INTERMEDIARY CYCLE TO WORK ITS WAY TO THE BOTTOM –> i have stated that autumn will see that bottom and the market enforces me that assumptions by each week that passes by since the JAN8-break of 200WMA of Nyse.
Just an aside. I am constantly astounded by the huge global community this site and subscriber pool reaches. Some of our most astute commentators seem to be English as a Second Language (ESL) types. I wonder I Gary has ever done a survey of IP addresses linked to this site to see where everyone is posting from?
Have you thought of going back to IBC if the gold bull returns?
I have thought about it, sure. Too busy to be a regular, however.
I am from Romania – rooted down to unknown ancestry, born, raised, educated, married-with-children –> easy to forecast I will die here too 🙂 unless something cataclismic occurs (such as communism happened for my grandparents when my age), in which case i would fetch my family and head for New Zealand.
We live in the same country!
Good thinking, Alex. Like the Who said:
“We won’t get fooled again!”
After looking closely at the monthly chart for the S&P, I can only conclude that any rally is going to fail and we will be making new lows in the months ahead. Gary has told us not short this market and I have to disagree. I hope the S&P gets back into the 1900-1940 area so that it can be shorted for more profit. I like gold’s move but I don’t trust it. Far to many pundits are now proclaiming that the bottom is in with only a few saying otherwise. Not good.
Everyone is calling for a pullback now or soon. Most people who want to buy gold are on the sidelines waiting for a pullback to whatever fib retracement they think it will go to. The volume on my junior miners shows very few people are in this sector or entering yet. People are proclaiming that the bottom is in but most if not all are on the sidelines still, or are waiting for it to go much higher to confirm before getting in.
SPX should go above 1970 before searching for a top of the large dead-cat-bounce to come.
Insight into stocks’ move is clearly rendered by T-bonds:
1) they just started their DC decline to extend into late next week –> stocks will grow
2) they will grow to a fresh new high in 2 weeks’ time –> stocks will have a pullback to fool many that the bear has resumed
3) bonds will leave a left-translated next daily cycle into their ICL sometime 5 weeks from now –> stocks will have then the opportunity to rise above 1970 for SPX.
So, if you wanna short stocks, look for the convergence of the following:
– VIX playing up-and-down with its 200dma,
– time band some 5 weeks for now
– search for insight from treasuries’ move down to their ICL
– stocks’ divergence from oscillators.
Hmmmm…. Futures haven’t open. But Saudi stocks, middles east stocks rallied at open on oil rallies, but plunged 4% into close on war worries!!! So, will be great to see US futures new lows this week.
If there is war risk, PMs may rally, but mining stocks may get crushed like other stocks because they are stocks!
You guys all base your prediction on one tweet on Thursday about a rumor of UAE OPEC cut?
Gold’s getting hit right now down about $15. Is this the start of the daily cycle low?
Interesting as to what sectors rally hardest on Tuesday.
nothing to do with PPT. Oil and associated credit risk is driving global markets. Oil had a short squeeze and pulled up markets with it.
I guarantee some entity manufactured the rumor Thursday.
I personally want to see gold smashed NOW and the markets up early on.
Come Tuesday premarket can be another story……
In my last note I recommended placing hedges on metal positions. As I noted in the weekend report something was fishy about the rally in miners on Friday with gold down. It was almost certainly a manufactured move to get retail traders buying so big money could exit at the exact top of the rally.
One has to take every move in this highly manipulated sector with a grain of salt. It’s hard to tell what moves are driven by supply and demand, and what moves are manufactured to achieve a goal.
Anything can happen in the next 36 hours.
How high could gold prices go?
Jeez.. $5000 in two years?
Why the surprise. You were saying you expected a correction, here it is. Oil rallied 12% European stock markets up, gold down. Seems pretty logical.
I think its really impossible to predict how gold will behave during a deflation as this is the first time in history that gold hasn’t been tied to currency. It is simply an asset nothing more. In an inflation gold performs but we are definatley in a deflation period. Yes we have had 16 trillion in qe but don’t forget the 100 trillion debt buble waiting to burst, which will unleash the mother of all deflation’s. Gold rose between 2002-2012, it was a bubble, and like all other bubbles it burst. There are definatley no guarantees that gold will outperform other assets. Keep an open mind.
That wasn’t a bubble. One requirement for any bubble is price must rise at least 100% in a year or less. Price must alsto push at least 40-50% above the 200 day moving average. Because gold is a thinner market and more volatile, when gold forms a bubble it will push price well above 60% and probably more than 100% above the 200 DMA.
That wasn’t even close to a bubble in 2011.
Oil just double topped from Friday’s high and the SPX futures followed……. Their toast!
European markets up 2%, Nikki up 7%.
of course they are up 😉
the character of the action indicates from its very bud that this is a dead-cat bounce.
the main thing is for beginner investors not to hurl into shorting stocks as they will see the market on a pullback next week: it will be a natural reaction before stocks move higher and during treasuries’ ascent towards a new high in their new daily cycle to fail.
I doubt it. The low volume Sunday night has been used to break the intermeditate trend line. Technical buyers will now help the PPT rally the market next week. We’ll have to see how this truns out but it looks like they may have succeeded in stopping the daily cycle on day 16.
You have to hand it to them. They know what the hell they are doing and they’re damn good at it. They manufactured a reversal candle Friday to paint the weekly charts bullish and now they’ve broken the intermediate trendline in the middle of Sunday night so you take out all the technical sellers and turn them into buyers before the market opens on Tuesday.
I couldn’t have scripted it better myself if I wanted to stop the sell off.
I think most pros trading gold recognize what happened back in January. Technicals and charts all supported a low in gold coming in feb/ march 2016 for the past year , so many saw those juicy , perfectly formed head & shoulders formations on the gdx and hui , completing the end of the formation in jan. So , many who follow/advise on gold were not only short , but leveraged short with DUST . Hedge funds / bullion banks saw this as a perfect opportunity to go strongly long in January , forcing the probably the biggest short covering of the gold miners. So , if the bottom is in , the hedge funds saw it coming , and front runned most gold traders who were looking for the final low in jan , right before they were going to go long in feb / march . Everyone , even Armstrong , said $850-$975 , feb/march.
1) for this week through the next 5 weeks I agree on the rally. What I said was that next week, not this, market will attempt a pullback – the kind of action many will have awaited to initiate shorts, except that that will prove a fools’ stocks pullback (as treasuries will move higher into a new, higher DCH) because stocks will quickly turn around to move higher (as treasuries will fail in their daily cycle 2 weeks and a half from now).
2) I still think there was no intervention –> Gary, how could I have commented here on FEB8 that the market will have a demi-crash and a shortened DC to produce an ICL by the end of last week unless there were actual signs by Friday FEB7 that that scenario was on high probability ???
I simply saw EXTREME FEAR in the stock market at a week’s close and that’s what happens at such moments:
– market dives very very quickly
– and then the same market turns around abruptly leaving an ICL begind.
IT HAS HAPPENED EVERY TIME ON SUCH EXTREME FEAR! THAT’S HOW I HAD PREDICTED IT ON FEB8 AND THAT’S WHY IT WAS NO MANIPULATION – JUST MARKET’S NATURAL PENDULUM MOVEMENT.
error correction: I had made the comment on FEB6 (not FEB8) and the extreme fear was apparent at the close of FEB5 (not FEB7)
Alex, where have you seen that extreme fear on feb5?
I’m still holding a few spy puts but also playing the rally in oil and bank stocks for now.
If these criminals float it back to 2000 it will be the short of a lifetime.
SPX will get close to 2000 in 5 weeks’ time, don’t worry!
Pendulum movement of market’s sentiment off the fear extreme ensures such a kind of natural [re]action.
No manipulation? Yeah right. Explain that stupid OPEC stick save headline right at last ditch support.
I refer only to stocks and gold markets.
Crude oil, silver, coffee, fcoj are easy to manipulate by various parties –> oil is manipulated by governments as a it has been employed as a geopolitical weapon one way or another: in the 70s on the upside by OPEC while in 2015-2016 on the downside by US and Saudi Arabia to hit ISIS and Russia
Great call Gary.
One note: *implication* not *connotation*
while the current analysis is to buy on dips for gold, are there any key area where if broken it may change your view on the precious metals? after all there are so much manipulation that some times we must keep our minds open to all possibilities