I’ll go over this in depth in the weekend report, but for those of you who have ridden this move up in gold now might be an opportune time to place some hedges as gold will be due for a drop down into a daily cycle low soon, maybe starting next week.
For those of you asking about the Quest, send me an email and I’ll give you the details.
After the last three weeks I think you’ve lived up to the nickname I gave you a couple years ago… G-Money! I’m so glad we dug that gym bag out of the trash can… Markets can’t keep SMTers down forever! ?
P. S. Thanks for all you do… If I’m ever back in Las Vegas I’ll l@@k you up. You’ve earned a burrito and a beer! ?
thank you Gary. To be clear. are you saying I can buy DUST now?
I don’t have much to invest. only $5k. if I buy DUST, I would be 100% in. otherwise I won’t make much money (Eg. 20%). please advise.
Dude.. I get it, you wanna make some coin, but take Gary’s advice to heart: You don’t wanna short a ‘baby bull’; they are unpredictable — just like women! I would follow Al’s advice [below] and exercise a little thing called patience because if this is indeed the end of the bear then there’s gonna be plenty of opportunities to make some cashola 🙂
You don’t ever make a directional short trade in a baby bull. I’m saying you can add a little DUST to balance out your long positions in case gold is ready to drop into a cycle low. DUST will help you to hang onto your longs.
Dow have closed below Armstrongs weekly benchmark. His benchmark is quite accurate. So Dow likely will see new lows by Feb or March. But personally, based on my TA, market can bounce some more. SPX cash could rally to 1920 ish. Then die.
For Gold and silver, next week tends to be the correction week. Gold could drop even $50. and silver $0.5. Thats a lot of drop. And who knows, we could have seen the tops. But damned. I aint going to sell my half size silver. I may regret it big time later, but its ok. Risking some profits.
Newbie, slow and steady wins the race in this game my friend. Swinging for the fences ends 9 in 10 times in ruins. You should never have more than 10% of your holdings in any trade. I understand the small account bit but if you are putting in 100% allocation to trades it will soon end up even smaller by blowing up.
Wait for this to correct and if you’re hell bent on using more then do it then. The close on Friday has no real factors I can see that suggests it will pull back other than ‘it should’ and is ‘overbought’ which can catch everyone out and continue up. If your leveraged short here and it just continues up you’ll get killed. be patient.
Hope this helps 🙂
Monday is US cash holiday. So they will likely juice up the futures. And PMs may suffer. For PMs bull, they can only look to 1 help. That is China crashes on Monday. I doubt so though.
COT is out. Commercials have further increased their net short. But have not reached bearish levels. So , next week could be just a consolidation week. Not a top yet.
Agree Chris and further, options expiry for the metals will be the week after. If this is choppy to slightly positive next week they’ll make a killing the following week with long being the higher ratio and slamming it back down 🙂
Trash can? It was a big, stinky dumpster, man!
Makes sense after such a big run-up..
http://www.goldvybe.com/2-13-2016-gold-correction-on-the-way.html
In the first two weeks of January 2009, the Dow dropped 1000pt and gold also down $100 from 890 to 801. If history is any guide, the buying stampede now is similar to Dec 2008 – Feb 2009.
lol, Kaotic , you found a good post. That is exactly my outlook on gold when I decided to take profit on Gold. Albeit at slightly lower levels. I was seeing a $100+ drop , and a 50% to 61.8% retracement, and trendline testing drop. I just did not want to share too much of my tricks to people. But since u found another source, bingo!
I was even being laughed at when I said gold could drop $100+. And thats why i am only half size into Silver. Even though i said i will not trade it, I will still have stop losses to limit my position to maybe 20% during the correction.
But the best case for gold is to rally past 1308, then 61.8 fib pullback to 1160 ish. This will be the best!
Yes … there very well could be a big correction down in Gold next week … however, I don’t think the correction will be as big as many think … because, IMO; in order to get a big correction down in Gold we’ll generally need to see a big move up in the US Dollar … and I just don’t see much of anything in the near-term event horizon that can trigger a strong Dollar rally with any real conviction.
In fact, if the stock markets enter crash mode in the near term (which I think there’s a increasingly higher probability) the FED will be under tremendous pressure to flip too very dovish mode on the rate hike talk.
Hillary, u got it wrong. You just add a day where Dow rallies 300, gold could drop $70. Add a few extra days, gold would have hit target. That’s the nature of gold.
But I have good news for bulls. When gold makes that $100+ drop, either from 1256, or 1310, it will not break $1160. If $1160 is broken, gold is unlikely to be in a bull market
Gary thanks for all the great postings. FWIW: Kept my miners bought some dust. As such, bought the clobbered materials, capital goods, energy and emerging market stocks. Don’t think anyone will agree but believe we’ve seen the lows not only in gold but also the SM. Feels like 2011 rather then 07. Believe the bull lives on but with a change of leadership. Good luck whatever you decide to do.
The gold flash in the pan was a good one, now we will watch and see if this was a spike aberration.
For the last 10 years, gold has gone up in January and then dropped right back in March due to Chinese new year. Add to it, the turmoil in Yen and Yuan, and it was the perfect storm for gold.
Page 2:
Bear markets don’t finish with a sort of, kind of bottom whimper which gold has in Dec 2015 …. bear markets end with a capitulation plummet which scares the hell out of all bulls and cleans the deck off 90% of the participants.
We have not had this capitulation yet in this bear market in gold which started in 2011.
Page 3:
Canada moving away from gold reserves, sold 50% of their gold reserves.
They are actually investing the proceeds in foreign bonds!
“It gives them more strategic flexibility to sell the gold, take the money and invest in U.S. government bonds, or United Kingdom bonds or French bonds or German bonds,” Professor of Finance, Lee said.
“Central banks can hold the government bonds of other countries, and they also hold actual dollars. The Chinese Central Bank actually holds hundreds of billions of U.S. dollars. Dollars are very liquid, so are government bonds, especially of a Western country.”
http://globalnews.ca/news/2508940/canada-sells-nearly-half-of-all-its-gold-reserves/
If the gold bull is back you should rely much less on the COT reports. They are much more effective marking bear market tops and bottoms. Have a look at them in the 2003 – 2004 bull run – useless.
Dust? R U crazy? Nugt went from 34 on Wedensday to 56 on Friday. There will B a lot more chasing of this runaway train. U better get on it soon.