Despite what many believe stocks are not starting an extended bear market even though we probably will drop at least 20% before this correction is over.


  1. Jay

    Everyone and their mother said the exact same thing about metals (not starting an extended bear), and they were all wrong. However, without having watched 1 second of the video yet, I’m on the same page in thinking there is no way the Fed will allow an extended stock market bear. I don’t know what the next stick-save will be, but perhaps QE4, or ZIRP, is coming soon to a Fed Announcement near you….undoubtedly! As a big bear once told me… better believe in the PPT….if you don’t now, you will! 🙂

  2. Anthonyo

    Gary, Not sure if we would drop 20% that seems like a lot.
    PPT is ready and able to carry out instructions like Monday when they rescued the Dow by pushing it up 100 some points in the afternoon session.
    Yellen will open her mouth again Weds; they have wrong linear models hence wrong policy of tightening really since they started tapering in effect.
    So now we are seeing the effects of that tightening with an economy on the verge of a recession.
    They raise into deflation! Only baboons do that.

    So, let’s say I dont share your optimism of another 20% down in US stocks. PPT will not even give up Dow 16,000 for 2 months now. They know how to wear the bears down. They change their methods, sometimes they push things up in a big impulse like after October 2014, the Dow went up 2000 points in a month or so.
    Now, they are adopting small push ups but more frequently to keep teh dow hovering around 16,000.

    If Yellen starts repenting on Weds and back tracks from hiking rates, expect a melt up to Dow 19,000 by June.

    1. Gary Post author

      In that scenario it would require another complete intermediate cycle into August or September before the final 7 YCL.

  3. David

    Totally agree with you Gary…. Slingshot move that will move higher and faster than anyone will believe. Dow will make new highs. So you think gold and the stick market will rally together in a bull market ? What about US dollar and oil. Can everything move up together? Keep up the great work.

    1. Gary Post author

      The dollar probably goes down, but everything else goes up together just like it did from 2003-2007 and again from 2009 to 2011.

  4. Jacob 2

    A different take; think we’re there. A bottom around 1800 then new market leadership: industrials, oil, materials with a cyclical global growth theme. Should probably change my name to “certifiable”.

  5. MuffinTop

    A cure for Cancer and Obesity??! Whoa! Don’t get me wrong, I would love to see that happen but Gary.. all of that already exists and has been locked away in a vault somewhere because the Pharma industry is worth 1.3 Trillion dollars according to Reuters and their only mandate in life is ‘repeat business’, not cures :/

    1. Ralph Wiederzane

      There is already cure for obesity, put down the potato chips and dump McDonalds. Meat for a protein source is also highly over rated as it’s loaded with saturated fats. The fat you eat is the fat you wear, plain and simple. Carbs have a bad rap but it’s a lie like many other things people have been told throughout their lives.

  6. red

    J&J to cut 3000 jobs in medical devices unit
    Cost-saving cuts will help ‘accelerate the pace of innovation’, company claims

  7. klo

    I’m with you Muffintop. As a physician I know that we do have a cure for cancer and obesity…or better yet we have the ability to prevent them. We just have to eat the correct things. But that is too simple. Big pharma and biotech advances are not going to make us healthy.

    The solution to health is simple. Less animal products, more whole food plant based products. See Forks over knives. It’s also going to save the environment. Sorry…as an insider I’m telling big pharma and big medicine (in cooperation with the food industry) make money when you are chronically sick. The last thing they want is a healthy population.

  8. Chris

    FED here, FED there…. wake up guys. If fed can totally control market, we wouldnt have 2008 crash. So wake up. Fib 32% min, we could even go 50% to 1400 ish on spx. This market have already middle fingered allCB. Look at jap and Draghi. There will be bounces, but look at big picture

    1. Marc

      I’m in the camp of those thinking all the Fed needs to do is keep things from crashing. Eventually the market adjusts over time rather than price and fewer voters get upset. Face it, no one gives a hoot how much money the Fed prints. They only care if their 401k is going up or down.

      Having made the 401k the default “savings account” they have no choice but to consider the SM as too big to fail (or correct much).

  9. Utopia

    During the past month there has been a quite a few stories about the significance of Financials and bank stocks that have been falling sharply all over the world. It is not really a new story for most of us here but it is one the main stream press seems to have suddenly awoken too.

    In fact, most major US banks have been in equity price declines since last summer already and their European counterparts began their declines even earlier. Some of the share prices are now off as much as 50% and this in itself is significant for telling us the mood among investors who may doubt future earnings ad performance in the sector.

    Just a quick scan of the charts tells you there is trouble brewing in this industry that investors are suddenly responding too by selling out holdings more aggressively. This phenomenon is affecting all the majors from JPM and Goldman to Wells Fargo, Citi and Bank of America; the last two of which have seen substantial declines in share values over the last month of January and early part of February.

    Declines have been even more serious and pronounced in European banks. At the same time there has been alarming stories suddenly emerging about the possibility Deutsche is not as stable as that bank would have us believe while over in Italy the entire financial edifice is thought to rest on little more than quick sand and failures are all but assured sometime in the future.

    So it is against this backdrop of instability among the worlds major, systemically important financial institutions that gold has finally caught a bid and it is my belief that concerns related to global financial stability is the most fundamental reason for the recent resurgent interest in precious metals, particularly gold. I would go further and add that if there was a reason to say that the gold market has finally hit bottom that there is indeed fundamental reasons for that to have happened.

    The most obvious reason to me that gold is suddenly catching a renewed bid therefore is because fear itself has once again entered the consciousness of the market. Troubles in the banking sector are again manifesting themselves and real stresses are appearing for a variety of fundamental factors such as low reserve ratios and poor quality collateral at a time when worry is on the rise that substantial risk has developed globally due the continued deflationary headwinds we are all facing.

    One thing we are all pretty certain of is that most asset classes are currently overvalued and yet it is those same assets that are what stands behind the tremendous credit creation of the past few years. Risks in oil and gas assets is just the most recent good example of how leverage and easy lending can play havoc on a bank balance sheet as those assets are finally marked to market. But the same can be said of high end real estate, farmlands, stocks and even the collector and art markets.

    Among the investor class most attuned to these variables and those who stand to lose the most if there is a systemic shock on the horizon if a bank such as Deutsche does reach a tipping point there is an implicit understanding that the two most obvious risk factors are the substance and quality of their collateral combined with the hazard of global interconnectedness of the worlds banking structure.

    In other words, if a European bank falls because its balance sheet is impaired due to excesses of the past, that none of us will be immune.

    So why would gold matter? That’s the obvious question we need to ask and I think there is a simple answer. In spite of the fact that precious metals function neither as a currency or money anymore we cannot deny that what they do represent is almost perfect collateral.

    We know that because banks themselves still carry it on their books and it is considered tier one capital. We know that because it is the one asset Argentina has turned too to rescue it from its bleak economic outlook. We know it because gold is in most cases unadulterated by the kinds of shenanigans that plague the rest of the financial sector (referring to Derivatives here as an example of how massive risk is created through electronic and paper instruments with oftentimes no backing whatsoever).

    Anyway, without labouring the point (you already know all the reasons gold is an asset class unto itself) I would just say that it should be obvious that when a certain investor class switches out of bank stock and buys into gold and particularly gold miners that what they are really seeking is the security of the underlying asset itself.

    In other words, the value is found in the underlying asset which also functions as the collateral backing the shares of companies and it is this asset that has not yet been mined, cannot be rehypothecated, has not been lent into existence multiple times nor is it subject to counter-party risk of financial institutions that offers as good a guarantee as can be found in a very unstable world.

    It may indeed come down to ounces in the ground and the strength of the companies that plan on digging it up. With gold now at substantial lows relative to the 2011 peak and with heightened financial risks coming to the forefront it just seems obvious to me that a rotational shift must now play out as gold miners become the antidote to foreseeable instability and coming uncertainty.

    When you compare what you get by buying a bank stock versus a gold miner the odds seem to have suddenly shifted in favour of the latter as there is far more certainty it can produce real wealth with far less risk over the next few years.

    Martin Armstrong has often noted that gold will not respond positively until people lose confidence in government. I puzzled over that statement more than a few times because it does not quite add up for me. But if I shift the idea to what might make precious metals responsive is a loss of confidence in financial institutions then Martins premise makes perfect sense.

    And in that regard, Banks including Central Banks are the key elements and primary tools of most governments in manufacturing a global recovery. If they are faltering then that represents a failure of governments to paper over all the sins of the past. So it is not directly a loss in confidence of government per se that will motivate buyers of assets like gold but rather a loss of confidence in the banking sector that we all deal with day in and day out.

    Should the major financial institutions keep suffering share losses, miss revenue targets or outright face defaults and rising counterparty risk then we have probably seen the final bottom in gold.

    1. Utopia

      Sorry about the wordy redundancies in that post. I did not proofread any of it but rather just took it off the top of my head. I could have probably boiled it all down to 10 sentences or less. My only point was that I wanted to tie together what I think is the real driving force behind golds sudden ascent. Believe it or not the reasons are probably fundamental in nature which will drive the pure technical guys crazy. But the alignment between what is happening in the banking world and what is happening to gold cannot be overlooked. That rationale is more compelling to me than the arguments others have made such as gold goes up when equity markets fall (as one example) or that the dollar is the driver behind golds recent inverse performance. I would instead argue that it is actually very real fear of defaults, the overburden of unrepayable debt, sovereign risks and how all of those factor into what black holes our largest banks now face. A day is coming when we will see a scramble for true collateral and there is going to be a lot of bloodied investors as the ugly underbelly of the financial system finally gets exposed. On that sorry day you do indeed want to be the proud owner of investment grade assets and stocks that have genuinely good quality collateral baked into their intrinsic share prices and are on the rise exactly as more traditional instruments are getting their faces pounded into the pavement.

      Hope that was written with more precision!

        1. Utopia

          Doubtful. None of the QE’s did a lot for gold to begin with and another would not likely make any difference. It is the behavior of the collective of buyers that determines where gold goes now and at this time there is not even a hint that another Fed – QE is in the offing so we cannot even assume they are buying the rumour. What is real however is systemic risk posed by the potential for another bank failure. That calls for insurance and asset reallocation and those are mainstream concerns judging by the level of selling of bank shares and sentiment on the markets in general. It is only the on the fringes that this idea of a new QE still festers. The rate tightening cycle is the opposite of that though so believing in such an idea is clearly at odds with Federal Reserve statements.

          1. Utopia

            Ironically enough it is actually in the Feds interest to take actions that would support both gold and oil prices as they have continually spelled out their central goal of reaching 2 to 2.5% inflation rates. Those two commodities are what signal to the world that inflation is on the rise. So it makes no sense they would suppress either when to do so would defeat their primary objective of achieving specified inflation targets. If gold is really being repressed then we must conclude other forces are behind that.

  10. Anthonyo

    Japan: yen spikes vilently alarming the otherwise cool and collected Japanese government officials.
    Gold has also been reacting to currency turmoil in the world by going up recently.
    Although, in overnight trading in Asia gold is actually down $6 now. Sell the news time.

    1. Utopia

      Thanks Anthonyo. We have to wonder how gold will correct at this point with the Yen soaring as it is. That’s a big overnight development. Huge is a better word. I am beginning to wonder if the stampede into gold is now going to resume…..the next hours will tell I suppose.

    1. Utopia

      Nine days running. Notice it has breached above all its highs in 2015 already and turned bullish on the weekly chart. What the hell does that imply????? If the Yen cannot fall in the current environment and with consideration to what the Abe government is doing then we may really have a massive bull market in metals on our hands. Forgive me for having to reverse myself but I am simply astounded with the Yen move this morning. Stunned like a deer in the headlights is maybe a better phrase.

      1. Anthonyo

        Japan and Euro-Basket case-Zone are in SOooooo Much trouble, I can’t beging to name them.

        PRC, the home of the Unfree, is also in hot bath water now.

        In relative terms, US is the las man standing and so will the USD in the long run. USD will go up Not because the US economy is doing so hot–it is not it is on verge of recession–, …USD will go up since all the Scared Money from Euro-basket case-zone, and other economically viable countries will pour into USD and US stock market as the last resort.

        The question is what role will gold play in all this?

  11. Van

    No way this will be over by March and we resume on a new bull market. It’s already been downtrending since H1-2015, so almost a year. I agree a 3-4yr fall is unlikely – more likely a 18-24month crash, with catastrophic losses at the bottom.

  12. Dan

    Lol. GDX to $5 and SPX down 75% potentially before this is over. That’s contrarian. Not this constant belief that the Fed criminals can control markets. Take profits on miners. I’m yawning and unimpressed with paper gains on my physical.

    Those of you underestimating deflation will be in for a shock.

  13. Ralph Wiederzane

    Most stocks are already down more than 20%, it’s just the indexes toying with the possibility. Many stocks are already in bear markets so not sure how that fits with Gary’s idea, though I agree the Fed will always print to make things look better, especially since central banks around the world now buy companies and are by far the largest owners of stock. Some free markets we have!

    1. Utopia

      Correct Ralph. The NASDAQ is already down almost 19% and therefore just a few hairs from bear market territory if we use that 20% number as our guide. So a call on a 20% decline is not much use at this point as that is already mostly in the rear view mirror. In any event it looks as though equities can fall quite a bit deeper depending on how you read your technicals. On this point I would side with the outlook of guys like Gregory Mannarino who is drawing the obvious conclusions from past charts to determine future trends.

    1. Utopia

      That cannot happen for the reasons we saw last time around (Great Depression) because the world is now far too globalized and gold too dispersed to allow a single nation to revalue gold at its whims at any price it decides. That is one of the conditions that was needed to see gold and miners soar in value last time around. Secondly, the odds that gold would again be confiscated to fulfill those same conditions are slim to zero in the world we now live in. Gold could still perform very well however but it seems to me the initiative must be carried by the collective worry of the investment community and the general public and not as a dictate from Central Banks and Governments unless they work to revalue gold collectively.

  14. Van

    The system is on the verge of collapse. Deutsche Bank and Barclays are on a one-way path to Lehmans-style implosion, and that will be the tip of the iceberg.

    1. Utopia

      Watch those 3X ETF’s if the banks get dicey. Plenty have no protection and you are in theory at risk of losing all your principle. After that make sure you know who the ETF is doing SWAPS with to get a better idea of the hazard and who is backing the unit. If any major goes down it will create havoc in the ETP world and it could be years before you recover anything if there is anything left to recover after the courts chew through it all. Deutsche if you are curious is a backer of more ETF’s than you can shake a stick at and is indirectly involved in many other with swap provisions. This is a good time to read the fine print on those handy derivatives we all like to play.

      Like this cute one-liner from Proshares that refers to some of its most popular instruments.

      “** This fund is not an investment company regulated under the Investment Company Act of 1940 and is not afforded its protections. Investing in this ETF involves substantial risk, including loss of principal. This ETF may not be suitable for all investors.”

      That comment refers to the following specific ETF’s and ETN’s.

      At the end of the day there really is a difference between owning an actual share of an specific company versus a share of a complex derivative on an index. And now is a good time to start learning if you are playing with fire or not. Personally I am finished with these things as risks accrue in the banking sector but I may just be more risk averse than most others here.

  15. Walt

    I think some smart money rotated out of
    FANG and their high flying counterparts ,
    like Linked In, also overpriced biotech and into under/ misspriced gold / miners since Dec . That’s why they are rallying .
    Also , the global financial madness .
    Gold probably grinds higher from here .

  16. Walt

    Mike trike ,
    Where did you find those numbers on what the commercials are doing long /short gold?
    Thanks and good luck

  17. ndmaster

    Gary, so, we will have a 7 YR cycle low in a few weeks or 6 months. Then what? DO you expect the SM bull just to continue up for another 3-4 years? That is extremely long for a secular bull.

    1. Gary Post author

      Not yet. This is just the hard correction that precedes a bubble. Like 98 for stocks or Jan. 07 for oil.

  18. Chris

    Dont worry guys. Gold is pulling back. The next $30-$50 is not up, its gonna be down. That’s when u buy.

  19. Chris

    I see equities making first hour lows. Yes, stocks can crash like 1998, but i still think the odds favour some stability first.

  20. tulip

    a thought….
    ….”Rate hikes are not about “normalizing Fed policy”. They are about pressuring the US government to downsize. “

  21. Chris

    Some say if yellen were to hint of negative rates, there could have a huge short squeeze for stocks. Lets see

    1. Mark

      With all this bad data coming in each day and with the stock market falling, they will have no choice but to go negative!

  22. marie

    Gary would you please adjust the time stamp. Now is 10:30am EST, but your last post at 3:20pm. Thanks
    February 9, 2016 at 3:20 pm

  23. Gary Post author

    I’m going to take a guess and say that gold will need to close above $1200 to force a few more longs to chase and to stop out the early shorts that tried to pick the obvious top at 1200 before the daily cycle can top.

  24. Alex

    Could anyone please tell me what fook is happening and will happen with oil … It’s no longer reacting to overly bearish news and reports and it not reacting to the US$ it’s stuck in the mud ….

  25. Gary Post author

    It’s in the process of trying to find a major multi-year bottom. Although I think it probably still has one more lower low.

    1. Alex

      Will gather enough momentum to create a new lower low ?? the bearishness doesn’t seem to bother oil as much as it would before …

  26. paul

    Looks as if DXY heading to its support range of 93ish. So should mean gold can close over 1200 i believe..

  27. Mark

    there is a 75 year old guy in the gym where I train that have more or less the same body of his 30’s.
    He doesn’t eat more than he needs and he lift weights,this is the best cure for obesity etc….

      1. Mark

        His face looks like a face of a 75 years old,of course.
        You cannot build muscles on your face as you do on your body.
        Let’s hope in some biotech miracle!!! 🙂

    1. Gary Post author

      And it would be great if everyone would follow that regimen but that’s never going to happen.

  28. barney

    sold 50% nugt today.

    Utopia great post about risk in ETFs. I am not sure about the actual risk in an ETF unless there is a total crash of derivatives. Has any ETFs actually went bankrupt that you know of?? Single companies also have risk. Miners might have a physical flood, lawsuit or government take over – there is risk there as well.
    I presume that 5-10% physical ownership of Precious metals would mitigate this risk?

    I agree with Gary that we are in a sever correction within a bull market in stocks. The TV talkinghead bears have been calling a bear market all the way from 2010, missing the up trend all the way.
    Not only is this a Bull market in stocks but I believe one of the biggest of our lifetimes.
    Not sure about how much more the US stock market can drop as this is an election year and the politicians will not want that.

    I don’t know anything about Biotech so thanks again to Gary for giving us an insight to that sector.
    The question regarding better to be in biotech or gold miners in the second half of year is a good one. Or do we play off each one depending on who is rising?

    Good luck to everyone

    1. Utopia

      Anytime Barney. This was a pretty big topic following the Credit Crisis and there is still a lot of the old articles floating around the web if you are curious to read up on it more. Yes, there are genuine risks but far too many professional writers soft pedal the hazards and won’t do you much service when reading their comments that are basically just parroting what the funds tell them to say. All you really need to know is that a great many ETF’s have a claim on basically nothing (not all, but some). You really need to look at each one individually to see its make up, who provides liquidity, who is the custodian and that sort of thing. Many have just terrible liquidity and trade with awful NAV’s. They are sure not created equal. I recall once reading that just a dozen ETP’s accounted for half of all use by investors which means most are illiquid and thinly traded at the best of times. But so far we have not had the financial meltdown that would really be the test for what provisions and recourse is available to investors should the Custodian or backers fail. In a nutshell nobody knows what will happen until it actually happens. As a rule of thumb though they are not fully collateralized and so as counterparty risks again come to the forefront you could find yourself a bagholder during a market meltdown or simply unable to escape through a small door as everyone tries to get out together during the fire. Use them with caution is the byword and make an effort to close out the position before the trading day ends. We all hate Mondays!

      1. johnnyboy


        Thanks for the 3x ETP info. You said what I have been thinking. Any comments on non leveraged GDX, GDXJ, and SIL?

  29. victor

    February 9, 2016 at 4:42 am
    I’m with you Muffintop. As a physician I know that we do have a cure for cancer and obesity…or better yet we have the ability to prevent them. “”
    in that case you should be in a medical team for Steve Job and tell them that there’s a cure…, do you think he doesn’t have money, or he didn’t try everything possible? or he’s been obese?…. read how many years he fought with it…

  30. Herman

    Gold is preparing for the Great Plunge, towards 500/oz….Last chance to get out, the window of opportunity is closing rapidly.

  31. Ty64

    Trader Dan’s latest Public article
    Soaring Yen…BOJ…numerous warnings being issued before another move out of no where occurs…

    If the BOJ makes a move, maybe the Yen will take a dip. Miners & Dry powder just in case.

  32. Ken

    Wow – That is quite the statement Gary.

    Some of you use the Slingshot move statement of Armstrong so you are just copying his thesis and using it as your own. Your street cred is zero now.

    Some are on-board and ready to buy into the story…

    Me? After 50 years of trading…..

    I ask you all to google “bubble cycle picture” Check the pictures out, look at IBB, Look at the Dow, SP500, Nasdaq, oil, etc and tell me what you see.

    IBB is about to tank
    Not explode higher.

    I’m sorry but the weight of Deutche bank doing a Lehman Special in a few weeks, China, the Fed liquidity screwup, all lead me to one simple conclusion.

    The Markets are crashing. As a 50 year veteran trader I have seen all the reason, I have all the hype, I have seen all the can’t miss ideas…..

    One thing holds true – Bear markets are bear markets.
    And one final crucial point that had never failed me..

    What led the last bubble never leads the next….

    1. Gary Post author

      I beg to differ. Back in the summer I was calling for a crash in stocks long before Armstrong was even looking for a correction. Socrates missed the crash until we were already in it. I’m the only one who predicted it before it started. I’ve been saying all along that the 7 year cycle was way too right translated for this to be the beginning of an extended bear market even though we will probably drop 20% or more.

      I don’t think you actually listened to the video. We still have further to drop before the bottom is in. Probably 1600 on the S&P so yes IBB still has further to drop before the bottom is in.

  33. klo

    Gary, great call on gold’s pullback! Too many bearish shooting stars yesterday on many of the miners. Staying all in my core miner’s but sold portion of my NUGT into the froth yesterday. We flirted around today but ultimately pulled back hard.

    I believe you are right on Gary. Excellent 2nd chance buying opportunity coming in the miner’s but not until we get scared again.

    Fantastic calls. I’m very grateful for your guidance.

  34. ChrisG

    The best for gold is to sit around here for remaining week. And a sharp decline next week. The zone could be 1130-1150 range. That will be the best play. Bulls are getting carried away. Every week up $100. In 52 weeks, gold is $5200 higher. Dream on.

  35. Herman

    contrarianadvisor on seeking alpha on gold (28 January 2016):
    “Just to clarify: I am a near-term bull looking for $1200, an intermediate term bear calling for $500 and a long-term gold bull calling for who knows what… $10,000 & maybe higher.”

    sums it up pretty good. Yes, gold is going a lot higher, but short-term going a lot lower first. Deflationairy bust before inflation.

  36. Stephen

    Hey there Ralph and klo. Spewing anti meat comments, let me shed some common sense light to ya. Eat in moderation. The folks that work in the mines,if they ate a veggie diet, they wouldnt have enough energy to work. It takes some calories to keep body in motion. In my rural life style it’s important to keep up good energy with ranch raised meats and veggies. I have all four of my grandparents in there 90’s. They are eating ranch raised meats and veggies,before organic was talked about. Education is the most important, but some people don’t want to learn about eating healthy. So you two just want meat gone. Wow educate yourself. Especially you KLO. A physician.

  37. Kevin B

    I’ve been looking at the trendlines connecting the March 2009 lows with the Fall 2011 lows in all the indices. Dow Jones Industrials and Russell 2000 have already broke them. But SPX line is coming in around 1760ish and NDX at 3750. Both of these are about 5-6% from the Friday close. Like Gary, I would like to see SPX 1600, but the machines seem to be aiming for these long-term trendlines. There could be a more significant bounce from those (unlike today’s dead cat – is a dead cat FANG-less??) . The low in Oct 2014 was a bounce off the Russell 2000 line and that was pretty intense, so maybe an undercut of SPX 1760/NDX 3750 can only be that more intense – maybe even pushing barely into new all-time highs by May. Then a revisit to SPX 1600 then??? And I agree with Gary that we will be off to the races after that retest of the SPX 1576 area that held as resistance for 13 years.
    But what do I know? I predicted on the old site that we wouldn’t hit 2000 gold and that the dollar would rally in 2010/2011 when Gary was predicting a dollar crash when it had already crashed from the early 2000’s.
    I probably haven’t been right about much else, but that’s the fun of the markets! 🙂

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