The latest crutch used by the bears is that the COT reports are bearish so gold is going back down. That is not necessarily the case if a new bull market has begun.


  1. luckydog7

    Here in Asia we have many Europeans. They are scared to death and now talk of arming themselves and a starting a real revolution. I see the gold shops filled everyday with Indians, Chinese’ and Arabs buying gold like crazy. These buyers were NOT in the last bull market….

  2. Gold miner

    So hope we can make good money trading SILVER futures also, way undervalued and silver miners.??Gary, what do y think about Platinum and Palladium? I think they bottomed too.

    1. Macman


      * Sent from my iPhone

      On Feb 22, 2016, at 12:21 AM, Loretta Macoritti wrote:

      China going to gold standard in April.!!!! Gold will soar!!!!

      Shanghai Shock April 2016: Yuan Based Gold Standard.
      Switzerland plays a key role in the gold market because it is home to many big gold refiners, so its report confirms what we’ve been saying about gold’s move out of the West to the strong hands of …

  3. RayB

    Gary .. I know you like bio techs IBB .. but the price is 261 with previous high at 400 … that is less then 2x gain going back to old highs … with such a high price now how can IBB go up enough to make huge gains?

    1. Gary Post author

      I expect IIB to be well above 1000 split adjusted before the bull is finished. Maybe several multiples above 1000.

      That’s the thing about bull markets. When they are just beginning no one can imagine how high they will ultimately go.

      During the last gold bull gold rose by a factor of 25.

      During the last stock bull the Dow rose by a factor of 25.

      Bio tech has gone up a measly 700% so far. Lots of upside still to go.

      1. Jorgy

        I’ll be taking the other side of that trade bud. Anything that’s up 700% (like Biotech) is getting shredded by the Bears. Countertrend rallies can be bought, but you had better have trailing stops in to protect profits. Healthcare as you know it (waste, fraud and abuse) is going to get dismantled as the government credit card gets taken away by the bond vigilantes! ?

  4. pacoquin in spain

    Look Gary.. IMO.. OIL shld go up now to 39,80 aprx.. and correct back to 29,25.. and then yes.. we are into the run. IF that ever happened in next few wks.. how can you match it to SP correction being over ???
    Oil stocks, examples CVX or XOM.. now on rebound.. IMO.. next months back to 55 or 66 respectively .. double bottom ?? If that ever happened.. how you figure that ?
    Also.. IMO again.. if GOLD falls down to 1130 and 1100.. or 61% and 76% of rebound… on med-long run.. back 10 1050 or double bottom ?? again.. if taht ever happened.. how do you see SP etc ?? 7 yrs correction over ?? I doubt very much. I rather stay with yr SP 1600-500… thks, rgds, Pacoquin

  5. Jay

    I still suspect this could be just another big head-fake on the way down to triple-digit Gold and single-digit GDX. 🙂

    1. Jorgy

      I’m starting to move into that camp too. It’s much easier to buy the gold in the ground out of bankruptcy court that to pay up for the equity. The global credit crisis is already taking down the largest mining companies in the world: Anglo, Glencore, BHP, Rio, etc. and the spreads on the CDS are widening by the day. Should the Bears take the equity, energy and precious metals to lower lows and the USD take off this week it’ll be GAME OVER for the BABY BULL and more humble pie for G-Money! ?

  6. Anthonyo

    Bear markets don’t end with a whimper like gold’s bottom in December 2015; bear markets die with a capitulation sharp last exhaustion gasp down when everyone is scared to hell and gives up.

    We have not seen this capitulation move in gold yet.

    1. Jay

      True….we need real capitulation and it hasn’t occurred…yet…but it eventually that day will arrive! 🙂

      1. Anthonyo

        Perhaps the capitulation occurred with Miners(although the jury is still out on that too). But the physical price has yet to make every bull shutter with fear to throw the towel in and sell.

        We have not had this yet, lots of bulls around still and gold bugs. Especially now after the large rally recently.

        All in all, we cannot declare the death of the bear IMO, not yet. Gold has to prove itself by consolidating gains and not slipping back below 1173-1179. If it does, the downside is wide open.

      2. Jorgy

        Not even close… Name me even one major bankruptcy in the space since the silver/gold bull peaked in April/Sept of 2011. Like it or not, NIRP and ZIRP has kept zombies loaded w/ debt alive in the metals and mining space. Thankfully many producers have high graded and cut costs to maintain profitability. Unfortunately, many cannot afford to service their debt and will be forced into bankruptcy, wiping out equity holders and allowing debt holders to take control of “tomorrow’s gold” or the gold in the ground. ✌️

        1. mike trike

          Name some miners that will be forced into bankruptcy?
          Truth is most gold miners have slashed costs and are making good money right now.
          Many mining companies have bit the dust and shareholders have been wiped out. Bloodbath phase has already occured.

          1. Jorgy

            You couldn’t name one name, not one. Thanks for making my point. Before the bloodbath phase we will see several majors file for bankruptcy (i.e Glenore) go down and a gaggle of junior and explorers file too. Several HUI/XAU components are essentially long dated call options… I’d suggest everyone start treating them as such before even more capital goes to fiat money heaven! ?

        2. mike trike

          Are you serious? I don’t feel like doing any research but off the top of my head
          Allied Nevada, Colossus Minerals, Veris Gold, Sansgold, North American Paladium…
          Go look it up yourself. Plus there are numerous juniors that have been halted due to running out of funds on the Venture Exchange.

          Now tell me which gold mining company operating right now is going to go bankrupt??
          Just one major miner name please?

          1. Gary Post author

            Most of the majors have all in costs around $800. Gold will have to drop a long long way from here to put those out of business. It’s doubtful that will happen as the bottom appears to be in.

        3. Guacamole

          Just a few weeks ago you were talking rocket ship to the moon. Now you are talking bankruptcy and bloodbath phase. What gives? I’m just honestly curious did you change 180 degrees that quickly and, if so, due to what?

    2. Al

      Sorry, but neither do they end with a worldwide cliche at this point where gold falls to the $1000 dollar level nice and easy for every man and the village idiot to buy a coin or two. I’m not convinced by the up move yet either. Time for me now is the most important factor with a consolidation but what you are advocating just seems so predictable it appears just as unlikely.

  7. mike trike

    Excellent work Gary. The huge gains to be made are now in the microcap juniors. If you can pick the right ones you will get 10 to 50 baggers and more. A few of mine have already tripled off the bottom!

  8. ChrisG

    It is wrong to say dismiss cot when during this bull run, silver couldn’t even make a higher high. So you guys better trust it

  9. Bill in Tokyo

    TA-wise, it’s easy to see that the bottom is in.

    But fundamental-wise, I still don’t yet believe that the 4 yr bear is over yet, because I can’t find a reason. I don’t believe that if bullion banks could manipulate the price down before, that they can not now, not unless some new laws are in place against stuff like naked shorting or whatever.

    Gary/anyone, can you tell me a single fundamental reason why the gold bottom is in now? Something that’s true now, but was not true last year or the year before? Thanks.

    1. Bill in Tokyo

      One could be, that the monthly $USD chart appears to be topping. But Rick Ackerman thinks that the dollar and bonds are going much higher, to 120 for the dollar for instance. In that scenario, I’d see gold falling further.

    2. Gary Post author

      Because the Fed no longer wants to keep inflation in check. Now they need inflation or the energy sector is going to cause another banking crisis.

      I expect the attacks are now done in the metals. Notice no attempts were made to stop the advance at any reistance levels. The market has already changed.

      1. Anthonyo

        The Fed could spur its inflation and keep gold price down at the same time. They have done it before, why not now?
        If you look at it like a bull trap rally to sucker all old bulls in to suddenly pull the rug from under their feet, not plausible?

        Where is the capitulation of the gold bear market, making all bulls sell and throw in the towel?
        What we had in December was a whimper at 1039 I think, that was no capitulation plunge.

  10. Walt

    Calling the resumption of the gold market is pure conjecture at this point . If gold had moved up these past 2 weeks with much stronger volume and next week into the upper 1300’s and GDX goes into the low to mid 20’s then then maybe its back as a gold bull market . To talk about the gold is back on at this point is bad judgment.

    1. Gary Post author

      One can always find a higher target to confirm that a bottom is in. However gold is now making higher intermediate highs. That alone is a very strong signal that the bear is over.

      1. mike trike

        Even Norcini is getting bullish here

        ““When I first saw this afternoon’s data from GLD, I had to refresh my browser as I thought it was an error.

        The 732.96 tons ( 733 for the sake of rounding ) that I read was in my mind, 712.96, a slight reduction from the previous day especially since the gold shares moved a bit lower today and gold surrendered some of its gains later in the session on Friday afternoon.

        However, ’twas not to be. That was indeed the actual number. We witnessed almost 20 tons of gold added in a single day, the largest daily increase since the start of this year and the largest single day increase since August 2011. (PLEASE NOTE – my eyes began to gloss over in going back through the historical data of GLD reported gold holdings changes so if any of the readers want to take more time to double check me on this, it would be appreciated). That is astonishing and is something that cannot be ignored by any objective market student. Clearly, Western-based investment demand for gold is surging.”

  11. MuffinTop

    There’s a significant amount of divergence on the charts which would suggest that Gold is going to drop into at least another DCL in the short term before the next leg up.

    And I could be wrong on this one but I also think that getting back into GDX last week was a little impulsive. Adapting to ever changing Market conditions is important but sometimes you gotta step aside and let it play out so that you don’t get caught up in the whipsaw 🙂

    1. Bill in Tokyo

      I see that too, but I’ve seen before in gold’s bull where divergences didn’t matter all that much. Going sideways was enough. I’m absolutely BEGGING for a pullback. I missed the 1st rise, and hope to get get on asap.

      I agree w/Gary’s video that gold is going higher. Something has changed, and the move is impulsive. It’s a bull alright.

  12. ChrisG

    Looks like a bloodbath for PMS, and bloodbath for stocks shortist . Gonna be blue black Monday for them

        1. Jorgy

          More bankrupt companies with equities going to zero. The fundamentals will change when supply and demand changes and the cure to low prices is low prices.

          Thanks to ZIRP and NIRP the zombies in materials/energy were allowed to live longer that they otherwise should creating excess supply in the face of lower global demand.

          The kids had better used this bear market counter trend rally to get out of the pool! ?

  13. Alexandru Popovici

    100% cash as I got stopped out of GLD on Friday of the latter 50% lot at the touted 117.55.
    Thus, I bought gold at the equivalent of 1139 and sold it at equiv 1229.

    Waitig for :
    – shorting treasuries as they are ready to enter or have already entered their YC decline,
    – gold’s DC decline to buy on wekaness below 1180.

  14. Chris

    Yes, Alex, looking at gold around 1150-1170. And hey, looks like stocks gonna rally to 2000 level. Or observe TLT. It looks like it is heading for 50ma. When it is there, will look to take profit on my index longs.

  15. Stefan

    Elliot wave A is in and we are waiting for a corrective B wave for 1-3months then a spectacular C from nidsummer to 1435-50 Gold in half a year. That is what the wave structure is indicating.

  16. Chris

    If gold can close the month above 1182, it has a better shot at being a bull run. And if gold takes out 1160, watch out. Consider trading out on the bounce. Because it will greatly imply all these are just a huge bounce. Go look at gold during 1999. Huge bounce and nothing for 2 years.

    Most importantly bulls, take note silver did not even make any higher highs during this gold run. So rein in some expectation.

    I will give bulls the benefit and trade like a bull, until those levels are taken out. I will then trade carefully on the long side. I will likely be long then, but a lot more apprehensive.

  17. Al

    Here we go, silver under massive pressure in early London trading. Wondered how long it would be. This isn’t a steady fall over a few weeks into a pick of Fib retraces and MA’s of your pick. If you still end up right about this Gary then it’s a fantastic call but I’m glad I’ve sat it out as best I could.

  18. John Simons

    Have deflationary forces ended? Gold may be turning or this could be another bull trap. I couldn’t say for sure. One things for sure, in my opinion a buy and hold strategy for five years could be very painful, its extremely risky their are no guarantees . Be careful.

  19. John Simons

    Silvers rally has been weak in comparison with gold. It’s really no surprise to see it dropping like a stone.

  20. Chris

    Even if this is just a bear rally, Gary also made a good call. Profits since the lows and have taken some off the table, if not all. Its ok.

  21. Gary Post author

    Folks, gold is just very late in its daily cycle. So far it’s playing out perfectly as a pennant pattern in gold and a handle on the cup pattern in silver.

    I’m watching the dollar as it struggles to hold the 200 DMA. Also the euro is very deep into its daily cycle decline. Once it bottoms and starts to rally the dollar is going back down and that will drive the third leg up in gold. This is your chance to get on board so as not to miss the next leg. Almost everyone has missed the initial surge and I dare say almost everyone will also miss the third leg up as well. Bulls always shake off as many riders as possible.

    1. Bill in Tokyo

      Spot gold down almost $20 in Asia’s evening … as Muff said, the divergences are playing out it seems … I am wondering now what excuses I’ll come up with that make me miss this next leg up! Like Gary says, I believe this correction will be tricky. Need a bullet proof trigger.

    2. Jorgy

      You are working off an assumption that the bull is back which is dangerous. Letting price and cycles play out without any bias of being “right” seems to be prudent at this juncture. To each his own as my grandmother used to say. I caught the rip out of the mid-January low, banked coin and looking for a higher probability setup than attempting to market time a DCL after an instane impulse move. If $HUI cannot find a bid at or above the 140 level in the next week or so this was just a head fake and the BLOODBATH or BANKRUPTCY phases are going to start as firms miss debt payments and default on their obligations. ???

  22. Alexandru Popovici

    Hi, Chris.
    yes, gold will tank nicely exactly in the range you’ve mentioned 😉 –> I’ll re-buy there too but only after USX gives me its ok.

    USX just produced a higher high today (as expected and noted here on Friday to you and to Victor) and it looks eager to preserve its positive correlation with stocks –> as long as stocks are going high into their ICH, USX will move up too.

    FOMC meeting in 3 weeks should be the catalyst to reverse these trends:
    – to set the ICH in stocks and USX,
    – to set the ICL in treasuries.

  23. Stefan

    Sold all my miners on Friday and bought dust, a good call imho 🙂

    There is a fib timeline coming in this week saying this rallyin Gold is over for now !!!

    CB might step in and do some work.

  24. Dan

    Yeah right. Doc was right on his short.

    Go long oil or stocks instead as they complete a dead cat bounce. No one will care about gold or miners in risk on. You won’t see a rocket launch like that again for a long time.

  25. ted

    Ha. So many out here think stocks are just in a dead cat bounce. You will never see that cat again as it’s heading to da moon!

  26. John Simons

    I’m not really seeing weakness in the US dollar. Looking at the one year chart there seems to be strong support between $93-$96. It’s bounced of support six times already with three consecutive rising lows. Dead cat bounce, i’m not sure.

    1. Alexandru Popovici

      USX is entranched in proven YC decline; these declines are like flus – you don’t rid them until they do what they’ve got to do in the requisite timeframe.
      So, USX is broken, I am personally convinced about that (I used to be an USX bull too since the end of last autumn but I cannot afford fighting price action) but it has to rise before the YC decline regains the strength to bring USX lower -> since Friday this has been a great opportunity to dump gold with the target of reloading after three things occur:
      1) gold penetrates its DC trend line
      2) swing low in gold
      3) swing high in USX.

  27. John Simons

    Oil prices up stock world stock markets up, Pm’s down. If golds going to continue its rally do we need oil to continue its decline?

    1. Gary Post author

      I think everything will go up together. That has been the norm for most of the last 16 years.

  28. Frank

    It’s Monday morning and the stock futures are up 1.0% again, but if I’m right – that we are about to roll over into the biggest down wave yet, the powerful wave 3 of 3 – then maybe it’s like this. What happens just before the terrible real tsunami wave roars in? All the water quickly and quietly flows out to sea. Maybe that’s where we are right now. So far the market hasn’t exceeded the bounds of this situation.

    1. Gary Post author

      We have a weekly swing with follow through on the S&P. I really doubt the PPT is going to allow a break below 1812. If they do they will have one hell of a mess to clean up.

  29. Ralph Wiederzane

    The premarket was the chance for nonbelievers to start getting involved in gold before the train leaves the station.

  30. ChrisG

    If u look at copper crude, they look like they could rally big today. Stocks will likely gap up and rally big. Today is blue black Monday. For the shorts. An ABC pattern seems to project spx to 2000.

  31. Alexandru Popovici

    gold just broke down the right shoulder of an intra-day bearish H&S … gold, I’m waiting you below 1180!

    1. barney

      Is that not a head and shoulders within a head and shoulders? ie the Big head is a small head and shoulders pattern.

      away she goes.

    2. Enoch

      I think gold will go up above 1260+ first before heading down below 1180. its the best way to trap both bull and bears. If anyone was following my post regarding the website/chart that shows how Gold has been following YEN’s lead to a tee amid a couple of weeks delay, then it is all moving to script. Gold still has a high probability to move higher this week follow by 2+ weeks of pull back then rockets higher 1300+

  32. Gary Post author

    1 or 2 more down days or some more consolidation in the pennant and sentiment will be reloaded and ready for the next leg up.

  33. Enoch


    a couple of questions.

    -Are you concern about the under performance in silver as many are saying while gold has broken out, silver really hasnt.

    1. Gary Post author

      Silver is forming the handle on a cup pattern. Once the breakout occurs silver will catch up in a hurry.

      Miners are behaving exactly like they should if gold is forming a pennant continuation pattern.

  34. ChrisG

    If gold doesn’t break 1191 today or tomorrow, I may have to buy some. Cos this sucker could do a dragonfly doji consolidation just like last week. Two weeks of such pattern could put it in good chance of a strong rally soon.

  35. Hermann

    oil is a much better short-term trade here, could squeeze to 42/barrel. Gold could top around 1300/oz max, but possibly has already topped at 1265/oz. No way a new bull market has started in gold; buying at this level and higher is buying into a death trap.

    1. Enoch

      I love it, the majority of investors need to still remain bearish on gold in order for it shoot higher, if the sentiment changes to quickly it will only ring in more weakness

        1. Herman

          actually, I am a gold bull. But not at all cost. This trend will reverse soon, and what follows will be truly epic. I am ‘trying to survive the last months of the bear market’ in gold, including a real bloodbath phase (we haven’t seen one yet).

  36. Enoch

    gold is in a consolidation period with many waiting to sell above 1260+ and many on the side line waiting to jump in below 1180. So things will definitely move once price hits either areas. While my bet remains that we will break higher highs before seeing the low, as a gold bull myself it is win win

  37. Anthonyo

    If gold break 1173-1179, the downside is wide open.

    The local top in gold has been made already, time to go back to reality: it has lots of work to do on the lower side to make a “real” capitulation bottom …only then can we begin to even consider the long bear in gold ending …. Don’t want to jump the gun and get excited here bulls.

    1. Enoch

      i welcome <1180 gold price, will just add to my position, however my own personal view of reality is market tends to prove 98% trader wrong and so the best outcome is to see gold push higher 1260+ to take out all the shorts who places SL there and to trap all the bulls for buying into the breakout only to see it drop 38%

      1. Enoch

        oh and if you dial down to the 1 hour chart on gold, it has produced a 3,3,3 wave structure which is corrective in nature. even though’s move today is sub par, yet GDX has fully recovered from the drop this morning and is pushing higher. I expect gold to suddenly surge and gain strength for the rest of the week. the real decline isnt happening until the next week as time/cycle are more important than price

  38. Enoch

    something isdeed fishy, gold is lackluster yet minings are gaining strength with ABX making new highs. Either it is a false move to trap buyers or gold is about to make a run

    1. Anthonyo

      Enoch, sounds right around end of Feb as the start of the decline in gold. But it’s doing an OK job of falling today too. Typically mining surges against metal price direction are bull traps. But we shall see.

      But I know one thing: this ain’t yet the start of a bull in gold.

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