Trades need to keep an open mind right now. This can go either way depending on what happens in the stock market. Gold could have another big leg up if stocks roll over and finish the 7 YCL, or gold could enter a volatile trading range if the powers that be have succeeded in halting the 7 YCL again.
Part of the video got cut off. I will repost a new vid in a minute.
Check out that triangle on the XAU/Gold chart!
FWIW: To me the most interesting trade out there is energy ( like oil, uranium and solar). Technically oil stocks are still basing but believe they’re getting ready to run. Historically, March – September are strong seasonal months for oil.
Ok corrected video is now up.
Thanks for these video’s, Gary.
If the recent higher high in gold means that we’re now in a bull market, then I’m hoping for a 38 or 50% retracement in GDX, forming a higher low, and then we just trend higher and higher, making higher highs and lows, for the next 7 yrs. 😉
(FYI I had to quit cycling due to knees – do squats and the stairclimber now. Kicks me in and levels me out.)
Thanks again Gary!
Interesting dramatic fall across the board with inversely affecting gold!
Crude news: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-16/saudi-oil-minister-says-kingdom-agrees-to-freeze-oil-production
swing high in gold today and people are starting to sour themselves into pessimism or at least doubt about gold while USX still has many months to complete its yearly cycle decline –> all that is good for gold.
Gold will rise alongside stocks when USX-SPX correlation inverts itself after FOMC minutes tomorrow.
Goldman flip-flop and switches side again..lol
exactly: it’s getting trendy to be bearish on gold and contrarian to be bullish.
that’s good for my full long-gold position.
I agree with you Alex. Everyone flipped to bearish over the weekend. Nevertheless, I bought more DUST in the pre-market. I think it gets to at least $10 and fills the gap.
That means they’re long 🙂
Gold at 1212 – 1100 GMT
I think the big players (illuminati) want the stockmarket to role over before the middle of march, then japan, china, Europe and America will hit the panic button together. I can’t see how it plays out any other way, confidence is lost, debt is blowing up, this can’t just bump along for many months
Will we ever have another true correction/bear market or just constant never ending criminal Fed interventions? We’ll know by summer. The 2008 on steroids scenario needs to play out soon or else guys like contrarianadvisor will be proven dead wrong and central bank criminals win.
oMG oil just turned red!……. Who would’ve thunk it! ?
Everyone is flip flopping! Most will be gitched by this gold move.
Just be patient. Sooner or later gold will deliver a daily cycle low. That’s the spot to buy heavily long again. Then we just need to figure out whether gold will produce a second leg up or chop sideways for a couple of months.
Of course for those not worried about short term daily or intermediate cycles you can just buy and hold for the next 4-5 years. You will save a lot on taxes but you will have to weather a lot of gut wrenching moves down into cycle lows along the way.
Foreigners don’t pay taxes on gains in US markets. Taxes are for the American sheeple.
Anyone pays taxes unfortunately,I pay 26% tax on capital gain on gains in US market even if I’m not in US.
The only way not to pay is to move to Panama,Monaco,Switzerland or another tax haven place if you are not American.
If you are American you can move to Puerto Rico and you will not pay ANY tax on capital gain
The regular metals portfolio is up 38% over the last 14 months. Not bad considering miners are flat during that period.
If you don’t mind me asking, what percentage of assets are invested in the metals portfolio? In other words, how much did it boost overall portfolio?
On stocks, one thing is sure –> TRANSPORTS ARE OUT OF THE BEAR MARKET, THEY ARE IN A NEW MULTI-YEAR CYCLE.
They will produce a higher low as the broad market will deliver a lower low (the bottom) in late summer – early autumn.
Hard to say. That looks like a bear flag to me.
it will not look that way anymore next week after Transports will have broken up decisively their 50dma 🙂
considering gold dropped at one point pretty well giving back 70 dollars of last week’s major run up. yet mining stocks are holding up extremely well. this may also be an indicator that gold still has momentum if you recall that chart showing the correlation between YEN and gold it suggest that gold still can punch higher 1260+ then the big pull back will begin right until the 1st-2nd week of March
I still believe stocks will roll over, the PPT has just delayed it for a mere few weeks
ALex, just because Transport in bull market, doesnt mean stock market is. Just go look at 2000-2001 tech bubble burst. Transport up, SPX, nasdaq down
Chris, I agree with you and that’s exactly what I’ve said above: a lower low in broad market is to come in Q3 this year.
It is important to see budding turbo strength in Transports vs broad market as we have a lead on the bottom to come latter
It is nice to see that USX-SPX correlation has switched to negative from positive ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC minutes 🙂 🙂
this leads us to my stated Trading Framework whereby I have been forecasting stocks and gold going up hand in hand and USX rolling over into another left-translated DC 😉
Eh , was reading too fast. That’s what u implied. lol. Good , you know your stuffs. Many thought Transports up, index up.
if you had to choose choose a currency,what currency would you choose for the long term? (1-2 years)?
Maybe the Yen?
I hate all currencies. In the middle of a currency war nothing is safe.
Oil rolling over signaled
SM rolling over signaled
Gold should flourish
Gold will not rally one straight line, will not drop one straight line. Looking to buy in the March, April weakness window
Your video asserts the “inverse” relationship you believe, at least for now, between gold and the stock market.
Please elaborate the conditions under which both gold and the market could >
Armstrong contends we are coming into a period (2017-2020) when capital flows will be FLEEING “PUBLIC” (bonds of all kinds) and that GOLD & STOCK MARKET will be the BIG beneficiaries, with REAL ESTATE only appreciating in a “select” areas. Of course, MUCH HIGHER TAXATION will be imposed, along with capital controls, and who knows, an end to “cash notes” and beginning of US government “electronic” currency.
Where is this all leading ?
That one is easy. Once QE4 begins, then everything goes up together.
Gold will definitely go higher before it moves into IC decline.
Gold has not been an asset to sell since JAN28 but only to buy and hold.
I like the prospect of improving fundamentals for oil (Russia & OPEC talk for production cuts) as well as its extraordinarily bullish setup !!!
I will start buying oil via etf USO as soon as it touches 31.50 level.
Maximum portfolio exposure on USO will be 14% and I’ll pyramid in 2 installments: the pilot and then scaling in to a full 14% USO holding.
Nice! Transports have rendered their first assault onto their 50dma while showing clear sector leadership.
Every single move out of a bear market low was followed by a major correction, sometimes approaching the previous low. Miners were up 60% in a couple weeks, which is pretty much the most you’ll ever we them move in such a short period of time. Even if this is the start of a major turnaround, taking profits after such a jolting move will likely allow for reentry at a much lower price. Hello sidelines.
It will be fun eventually buying Gold at $900 an ounce, and GDX at $8 a share. 🙂
Can’t wait for you to lick my toes on this one 🙂
GDX down 8% . I don’t think that’s consistent with an A wave out out the bottom move . If GDX goes into the 15’s by next week , I don’t think we’ve seen the bottom with gold
I don’t think $8 gdx . Maybe $11 in 3 months if the stock market rally’s back to 17000dow / 2000 s&p
GDX’s Jan low was 12.60, so if we go below that to 11 or8, to me this would signal that this bull market rally was just a bear market short covering, and that we’d be going lower over time.
I’m still expecting just a simple 38-50% Fib retracement for GDX, making a higher low, then plowing higher.
The fundamentals (debt, money printing) tell me it’s way overdue for a new bull, but the manipulation fear in me tells me that maybe the boyz are not done yet, and to be cautious.
If you did buy gdx in jan , I’d just hold & not trade , because its going to be in the
$20’s , maybe 30 ‘s in a year .
So Gary, if/since you believe that manipulation caused this extended bear market in gold (correct?), if we are in fact starting a new bull market, what broke such that manipulators can no longer manipulate?
If in fact these manipulators exist and can/did manipulate the gold market, they could artificially manufacture the last rally, correct? And now loaded with shorts, they could potentially bring us to massively lower lows now, right? Like < 1000 gold? 800 even. Anything is possible if one can in fact manipulate the price, unless something breaks.
Did anything break that you're aware of? Thanks.
At some point the banks have to get out of the way. Not only do they risk not being able to deliver physical but the real money is made on the long side. The whole point of creating this bear market was to get price as low as possible before the third leg of the bull begins. The managed to create one of the most detructive bear markets in history. It’s getting dangerous to keep pressing this.
I think its so VERY OBVIOUS that the correction in stocks is over. But few will ride this rally. Gold will hit new lows. It is written.
Perhaps Jim Sinclair was correct when he suggested that Armstrong is talking gold down.
And then Harry Dent keeps putting articles out that Gold is going down to $700. Yet, Dent did acknowledge that there is not enough historic date to accurately predict exactly where gold is going while doing an interview with Mike Maloney.
If Armstrong’s ALF–Socrates–were ever be exposed as a fraud, then maybe BB would have little choice but to release it…miners up, up, and away…then.
Gold do fib retracement at all major bull leg. So another drop it coming
YES, correction in stock market is over for sure, got AAPL, FFIV, VMW, FCX today.Forget about miners till May
The dollar will determine the fate of gold. According to Ross Clark/Bob Hoye, if the US dollar Index closes above its 8 day moving average tomorrow, the dollar has started to move up once more and we go over the 100 level.
That also tells you the FED will raise rates again in March for sure. The stock market is nowhere near low enough for the FED to even take notice. Yellen has said so recently and so has Bernanke in the past