45 thoughts on “WEEKEND CHARTS

  1. MuffinTop

    A few months back I recommended that folks ought to start looking into what some in the business call “golden lottery tickets” – gold explorers with huge hoards of gold in the ground – that could easily soar hundreds of percent as gold continues to rally. I’m gonna go ahead and make that same recommendation again today. These are the type of stocks you wanna find and hang onto for the next 5 years!

    Happy hunting ?

    1. Jorgy

      If Goldcorp (GG) is missing earnings, cutting dividends, forecasting lower production and guidance these EXPLORERS with negative cash flow hoping to get acquired by a major don’t have a chance. Treat these sub $5 stocks like truly are, a never ending call option on the company and do not expect everyone to hit since 75% of the publicly traded mining companies are going out of business. The credit cycle has peaked, debt cannot be repaid with current cashflow and a massive wave of bankruptcies loom in 2016/17.

      P.S. I wouldn’t sell many subscriptions w/ this viewpoint, but it is what it is. πŸ˜‰

      1. Jay

        I wouldn’t sell many subscriptions either, because people don’t want to hear that they are wrong! πŸ™‚ I think they would rather lose money than admit they are wrong! πŸ™‚

      2. MuffinTop

        Jorgy — I get what you’re saying dude but there’s also plenty of companies out there with sound fundamentals and a shit load of Gold in the ground. Those companies will make, and continue to make, money πŸ™‚

        In fact, Novagold [TSX] is a perfect example of a company that’s been in an uptrend since 2013 — I bought in @$2.25 [Yup, under $5! Oh my lord what have I done] and price is currently bopping around $6.50 and guess what big boy?! Daddy ain’t gonna sell, Lol!

        Remember, this industry is very boom and bust.. and the “right time” to invest is when no one else wants gold stocks. You gotta get out of this ‘bear’ market mentally and look at the bigger picture cuz there’s plenty of good shit out there!

    2. Jacob

      Hey muffin, any clues on how to find such info, other than finding each explorer and looking into it independently. I’ve been trying to find such info, but it’s hard

      1. MuffinTop

        John Doody and Matt Badiali from Stansberry Research is a good place to start. Their research is extensive and I’ve learned a lot from these guys over the years?

        Ps: I don’t buy everything they recommend by the way, so please exercise your own due diligence.

  2. Michael

    Gary, just base on the silver chart posted, how different is this Bollinger and RSI trade compared to last November, where silver kept crashing through Bollinger band for many days?

    If there is a different context, please show us the chart. Thanks.

    Mike

  3. Jorgy

    The two of three open gaps on GDX are likely to be filled in March even if this is a baby bull (the jury is still out) given the fact that gold has yet to give us a golden cross. Gold’s second DC topped on February 11th. The “baby bull” campers had better pray that the DCL is coming in a couple days because if that surge out of the pennant/flag was the start of the third DC, that failed it’s going to get bloody, real bloddy. A few years ago we saw gold top on day #1 of a third DC and the the “Manipulators” smashed gold; never mind the third DC topped in a LT fashion. Given the fact that COT report for gold is as bearish as October 2015 (when gold off $100 in $USD’s), yesterday we had the first MACD bearish cross on the gold daily since October 2015 and negative seasonality factors, spot gold has a (-0.02%) average loss in the month of March (average monthly returns from Jan 1968 to July 2010) we are likely to see price declines in March. This correction (at a minimum) will fill the two open gaps in GDX and will postpone the “golden cross” until May 2015. Worst case scenario is we’re still in a bear, it’s secular (not cyclical) and 75% of publicly traded mining companies are going to file bankruptcy protection in 2016/7 when the price of gold catches down to the historical relationship with silver and oil. Personally I love the fact that the biggest bears: Rambus and Trader Dan flipped into the bull camp over the last month. When longs get rolled up in March they’ll realize this rip was nothing more than a bear market rally with biggest portion of the D-Wave yet to come and longs will be swimming with the fishes! πŸ™‚

    1. Jacob

      This is why I’ve held off on buying miners, I can’t see how there won’t be carnage in the whole commodity sector this year. Maybe gold and silver return as currency and don’t go down with the pack, but the miners are still companies with large debts, producing a commodity at about break even.

  4. victor

    after all of this in the past year, what is discouraging is to receive a bitter pill saying “… you do not file your 2015 income tax return until you have received all outstanding tax slips…”

  5. Charles

    I am still learning and no chart expert but I do see that the settings on bollinger bands and RSI on silver chart above have been changed from the default settings on stockcharts. Maybe that makes it more accurate or not but it does alter those two indicators so as to make silver look quite a bit more oversold than the standard settings do. Silver is also not quite oversold on full or slow stochastics. That said, if it came down to support near 14.5 Gary is correct that this may be a good time to spend some days in USLV…

  6. Jay

    We will only know LATER if this is really the start of a bull market in gold, or if it merely just another shorting opportunity for the big boyz. πŸ™‚ I would not be the least bit surprised if we still eventually see Gold below $1000 an ounce, and GDX below $10 a share. #TimeStamp πŸ™‚

  7. Dave

    Gary I respect your work and you are right more then you are wrong. Regarding the cot numbers, I would think after Wednesdays failed run up in gold that the cot number would be easily over 300k now. The thing is we will not see it until next Friday and we could have a significant move down by time the numbers come out. I don’t like that platinum and silver are not confirming the move and elevation in gold. The rotation in stocks that happened on Friday to me indicates that risk on is the place to be not on defense which is bad for gold. We could make new all time highs in the S&P and gold and gold stocks will tank. IMHO.

  8. Bill in Tokyo

    I’m still waiting for a daily higher low in GDX.

    It is disturbing that SLV is correcting yet GLD is not. And even SIL is not. I’ve never seen it before.

    It is also notable that GG is in trouble – it’s one of the 3 large producers, next to ABX and NEM, that drive GDX.

    I’ve always felt that when the schlitz hits the fan, that gold bullion – and not the miners as in the 1930’s – will be the winner, mostly due to the debt that Jorgy spoke of. Gold bullion is a currency play in this regard.

    I’m really hoping that GDX and GLD will follow SLV down, but it’s never that easy.

    1. Bill in Tokyo

      … and I will add that from just a pure TA 101 perspective, GDX’s next big move is down.

      Unless markets are manipulated. And if they are, we can not trust a trend in any direction – up or down. Also disturbing. No one can then tell if this baby bull is real or not, because in a manufactured world, it’s impossible to tell.

      And the more I think about this, I think it’s high time to buy a bunch of physical gold, and turn the charts off.

  9. Atkjhi

    Reading comments over the past week leads me to believe Gary is right in saying very few made money off this move. Lots of folks wishing good down. If you didn’t make your retirement money wishing gold down the past 3 years you’re probably late to the party.

    1. Jorgy

      I banked serious coin going long NUGT from $21.50 to $48.50. I didn’t catch 100% of the move but rather the 60% in the middle. I’m long DUST from $4.50 w/ an upside target of $11 over the next 2-3 months should the IC in the USD be RT forcing oil, gold and the rest of the commodity complex to new lows. Bulls make $, bears make $ and pigs get slaughtered! Price pays… not projections or assumptions! ?

  10. Stefan

    #RayB
    February 26, 2016 at 10:53 pm
    “Stefan .. what if Gary is right and you are wrong? Then you will take it as a learning experience? :)”

    Yes of course!

    There is no prestige involved at all, I am Swedish not English or American πŸ™‚ I may fork in an excuse for providing bad info. However I will worry about that after next week. Lets see how it unfolds.

    Have a nice weekend folks,

  11. red

    who give the valuation?

    Pinterest raises multiple large rounds of funding at steadily rising valuations
    ($100 million Series C at $1.5 billion valuation, $200 million Series D at $2.5 billion valuation, $225 million Series E at $3.8 billion valuation, $200 million Series F at $5 billion valuation, and $553 million Series G at $11 billion valuation)

  12. Punster

    Jory – When will you learn? You’re about to give back the bulk of the beautiful $NUGT gain.

    Stay long and strong.

    1. Jorgy

      Punster… The Punster! OMG… Please tell me your in the bull camp and on the other side of my current trade! ?

      1. pepe le pew

        Jorgy, this person’s handle is Punster, not PUNESTER, the cookie shipping, stalkerish SMTer from those bygone days! Or… are they one and the same?

    1. Bud Fox

      Boy just think if you used that chart over the last few years. You would avoided a few dozen “The bottom is in” calls.

      1. Gary Post author

        I do believe I got every intermediate cycle bottom right. Nothing wrong with making money off a bear market rally. I thought July was,a final bear market bottom. I was wrong but we still made a 15% gain. Nothing wrong with that.

  13. Bud Fox

    Gary

    You are telling people to buy miners because they will go up for the next 4-5 years.

    Can you tell me a period when miners went up for that time duration?

    1. Guacamole

      I don’t think he’s saying that it will be a move straight up for 4-5 years, with no moves down. He’s saying that instead of trying to trade every little up and down every few days and get on the right side of every little swing (Alex), that many people would be better off buying-and-holding for a few years. And yes, most assets are usually worth more 4-5 years from when they were bought. In this case, Gary thinks gold will be woth a LOT more in 4-5 years, so why try to get on the right side of every little up and down move? Just buy and then check back in a few years.

  14. Alexandru Popovici

    Gary, we are tuning in. Now you also see metals buyable sometime early next week (most likely on Tuesday, as I had said several times).

  15. Stefan

    COT at 427016 as of yesterday, I would call that very bearish !

    Long term +5years I am very very very Bullish !

    Midterm bullishI think second half of 2016 and first half of 2017 has great potential.

    I bought Kaminak, ATAC and Victoria in August and in December, sold them last week after a +65% gain in 6months.

    Short term I am very Bearish lets say for 1-2months!

  16. Stefan

    No the chart is wrong,

    Gold COT Report – Futures
    Commercial Total Short
    284,003 as Gary stated in his chart.

  17. Stefan

    Ok, like said before I am new at this:

    Gold COT Report – Futures & Options Combined
    Commercial Total Short
    427,016

    Both charts is correct, now the question is, which number is the most important?

  18. Atkjhi

    Gary

    If gold really did make a bear market bottom than silver HAS TO follow right? Silver cannot remain in a bear market while gold all by itself can it?

  19. Chris

    Whole bunch of gold dreamers here. COT is not bearish yet? I wonder how u guys read COT. And dont worry, gold will not drop big on monday. Its last day of Feb. It is march that golds bull should be worried. And when gold start to drop, Gary is going to come out with cycle due for correction, bollinger band , fibonacci 61.8% etc that says gold is still alright. Then the foolish bulls who did not sell will pray all these hold. Well, they may hold. But, if it doesnt hold, the stupid bulls who did not sell is going to suck thumb for missing to sell. Then, they will suffer losses and wonder if Gary is right. Gary will replied he has already sold some if not all near the highs. lol

    Bottom line. The stupid bulls who did not sell only have themselves to blame. I am not a permabull or bear. I am a practicalist. I have bought and sold. Hope is good is life, but it is bad for trading.

  20. Jorgy

    The D-Wave will not end until $GOLD retraces down to the 61.7% Fibonacci level which sits at $896.06. If you look at the entire bull market from the monthly MA (42) perspective you’ll see it is still downward sloping (bearish). Gary’s correct that gold may kick the bears in the teeth one more time as it attempts to bounce back to the 38.2% Fibonacci level at $1293.22, but it isn’t getting through $1250, failed multiple times and may rollover during the $USD’s intermediate cycle which just printed and sits on day # 11.

    If you pull up a $USD monthly you’ll see a Cup & Handle Formation (100/92/100). Should we see the 108/110 level in the USD the 61.8% Fibonacci level at $896.06 will act as a magnet for gold. Given the fact that the G-20 meeting was a non starter for a Shanghai Accord we might see the Decemeber lows in gold taken out in the next 2-3 months and bring the $896.06 level in play for a final D-Wave Bottom in late 2016 to early 2017! ???

    1. Sahel

      Yep…for the last 10 years Gold has gone Up in January/Feb due to Chinese new year…and dropped to nominal in March….If so, SPX to go up in March then?

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