The biggest and fastest gains occur at the very beginning, and very end of a bull market. Almost everyone misses the initial surge out of the bottom because they are still stuck in a bear market mindset. And almost everyone misses the final bubble phase because they can’t imagine that price can rise that much and remain that overbought for so long. So the vast majority only make a little bit of money during the middle phase of a bull market and miss out on the really big money that’s made at the beginning and end.

Miners have already rallied 47% out of the bottom and I dare say that most people have missed that move because they can’t break free of their bear market mentality. The surprise will be just how far this initial rally will go.

If you think like I do that the bear market is over, then the SMT weekend report is a must read.


  1. Bluebear87

    Gary your thoughts on silver here? Friday’s action looks ripe for a huge cup and handle breakout to play catch up with gold.

    1. Utopia

      Its a cup alright. So put that cup over your balls and prepare to get kicked in the nuts if you are backing up the truck and buying with both hands. Regret and tears will follow because ALL technicals are now manufactured. Even “Cup and handle” patterns.

      God Bless you suckers one and all.

      1. Utopia

        Sorry to break it to you guys this way.

        But you gold-bugs are such pathetic suckers. And you are all so DESPERATE for that final bottom.

        You all just follow the indicators like a carrot on a stick.

        Too freaking funny for words. But hey, its your money. GO LONG!!!

        (PS…I am short gold. good luck!)

      2. carlos

        The cup with handle may be manipulated in the short-term, but it’s not that easy long-term. Both Gold and Silver are showing possible left cup patterns. Silver however is tough to gauge because of it’s volatility. Gold is smooth so far.

  2. Utopia

    This is a massive head-fake Gary. Sorry but I do not agree this is the final bottom or that we should buy and hold for the next five years. The technical pattern (in case you did not notice) is far too obvious. It’s just what is needed to pump up the last remaining gold-bugs. Just in time for another fall naturally. This is nothing more than a set-up to sucker in fresh buyers and the most devoted among the gold cult religion; to get the press talking to excite latent, sleeping investors buyers and to create an opportunity for genuine speculators to escape losing positions. This will end in tears as usual.

    I guarantee it.

    1. Gary Post author

      Well of course that will be the rationale at every intermediate bottom. After 4 years of bear market we’ve all become conditioned to expect failure and those that have traded that way have been rewarded. So they will continue to do what has worked in the past. That’s just the way human nature is. Wew are all susceptible to recency bias.

      But the miners are already telling us something different is happening. For the first time in 4 years they are now making higher intermediate highs.

      1. Gary Post author

        We are going to get a strong correction soon. That will get the bears excited that here we go again. It will not be a new leg down. It will be the buying opportunity for the next leg up before the intermediate cycle tops.

      2. Utopia

        Seriously Gary, this is a suckers rally. It won’t hold and it won’t pay off long term. Buy it at your risk but I advise caution. Not meaning to hurt any feelings here but this is a dangerous metals market and we have NOT seen the final bottom yet. It is best left to swing traders and speculators. Not long term buy and hold folks.

        Just wait till next week.

        1. Jay


          You are probably right. Also, 47% up from the bottom in miners means nothing to those still deeply underwater….GDX would still have to appreciate by another 300% to get back to all-time highs.

          I still plan on eventually buying GDX in the single-digits, although I may consider shorting it again soon, for even more profit on the way back down, and more fun as well. 🙂

          1. MuffinTop

            Why wait Jay?! GDX is in the single digits now..
            .. in the land of Narnia, where you belong.. with all the other fairies, including Utopia.. the biggest and brightest of them all, haha 🙂

          2. Jay


            Didn’t you say the same things when GDX was around $39 a a share, and me (and 1 or 2 others here) started (and kept) predicting that GDX would dip down below $15 a share? Just sayin’! 🙂

          3. MuffinTop

            Oh pleeeaase Jay boy! Don’t you dare change your story, Lol!!

            You’ve been calling single digits on GDX for like — EVER! And it hasn’t happened and it’s unlikely going to happen, that’s what I keep trying to tell you 🙂

            But if by some miracle it does happen.. I promise to lick your toes till Sunday, but until such time.. back to Narnia you go! Hahaaa!

          4. Utopia

            Cute Muffin Top. But I am no fairy. I just got it in my head the other night to stir things up a bit here to see who might come out of the woodwork swinging. Helps me figure out who is who and what is what on a new site.

            So what’s your call on gold? Please don’t say “up” without a good reason or I won’t take you seriously.

        2. mike trike

          Utopia sounds desperate and angry, lol.
          Why so much hate?
          Jay sounds like a broken record .
          You got your single digits now…..DUST!
          from $40 to $7 in a year…lol
          Gary you should take some of these idiots rock climbing with you.

  3. Alexandru Popovici

    to defend Gary’s point, USX having entered a proven left-translated yearly cycle decline can mean only one thing for gold at least for the next 5 months: general trend is UP!

    now…that there is a potential Japanese sovereign debt implosion, risk of social unrest in China on recessionary grounds, all that can stoke the dollar brutally in the second half of this year.
    As a matter of fact, the 15-month long prior YC in USX and these risks may render the current YC shortened, so that we can see the dollar rocketing in July, sending gold to the exit.

    But…until then….let’s enjoy the music as long as it plays 🙂 I am on a full long-gold position with an average acquisition price of 1139 and at a low risk, with high reward by June.

  4. David

    Funny how CNBC hacks were all over gold pumping it. That is jot normal. But yesterday morning there was 1.2 billion dump of synthetic gold at release of non farm payroll data…. Which flushed out some longs early in the day. I guess this week will give some signs . I am cautiously optimistic but we have not seen this type of violent rally in the past few years. Armstrong says there is one more low before it ends this is a false move.

    1. mike trike

      *From a Martin Armstrong email to my colleague Chris Powell…

      May 14, 1999

      Dear Chris:

      I understand your frustration that gold has been perhaps the worst investment for the past 20 years. But to argue that it is being manipulated due to large short positions is not justified.

      There is no interest in gold at this time and the central banks are all sellers. After they sell their gold, then we will see a bull market. Once those supplies are gone, no one will be able to lean on that supply and your bull market will begin.

      I hate to tell you, but gold will drop to under $200 before it turns…


      So there you have Martin Armstrong totally wrong at the bottom of the last bear market in gold. I wonder when he became bullish because his $200 call was dead wrong! What are the odds he is wrong this time as well. I don’t think he will ever call the bear market over until gold is much, much higher. I am still hurting from his DOW 32,000 in 2015 prediction.

  5. Alexandru Popovici

    Dear VICTOR,

    To answer your questions:
    1) yes, we are deffinately still in the K-winter and maybe we will still be until 2 things happen:
    – Japan’s leaden public debt is cut somehow; so far we haven’t seen BOJ resorting aggressively to financial repression but its last move might be the beginning of this – we will see. Otherwise, an outright cut will have to be implemented.
    – China undergoes the reforms to stimulate households’ consumption.

    2) on NUGT and silver: I do not know. I don’t feel safe with them, I do not touch them.

  6. Peter Lo

    @utopia, the bottom is in simply from the fact that you said its a “guarantee”. No true successful trader will ever utter that word while trading, humble pie best served …

    1. Utopia

      You guys sure talk about pie a lot on this site. Are you an Armstrong follower by any chance?

      Anyway, lets see what the next week brings. If I am wrong I get to eat my words. If I am right, you get the pie. Sure looks to me like a nasty short squeeze setting up in equities though so I will get long the S&P early Monday if the stars are aligned.

      BTW, I think Gary is correct that this coming corrective decline in gold and the miners should be bought. As a trade of course. Not a marriage.

  7. Alexandru Popovici

    Stock market is perfectly set for a demi-crash next week.
    That will be the ICL via a very shortened daily cycle.

    While the ICL is to come next week, we can have no idea as to how much the market can fall in the next several sessions!
    A strong uptrend will ensue in its aftermath.

    1. Gary Post author

      Then another strong correction into an intermediate low in April/May. It should hold above the Dec. low though.

  8. Jacob 2

    fwiw: Gold seasonals. When has it ever been smart move to buy miners in mid February. Everyone knows the answer. July 4 th being the next all clear date if you follow seasonal patterns. Perhaps it will be differnt this time but expecting a rocky spring. Personally in the “new baby gold bull camp” and will continue to hold exsisting positions … No big adds me thinks.

  9. Stefan

    This is a bear rally, do your homework from the last bottom in 1999, the low was followed by another low 2years later, history doesn’t repeat exactly but it does rhymes 🙂

    I expect the second low to be followed by a geopolitical violent event like 9/11 unfortunately …

    1. mike trike

      last week Gary did a video where he showed Commercials covering their short positions into a rising gold price. This doesn’t happen in bear rallies.

        1. Gary Post author

          The current commercial short position is only 193,000. All other tops occurred with the commerical shorts over 300,000. Gold still has lots of room to run yet.

  10. Barney

    First comment so go easy on me.

    It does not matter if Bull or Bear. Trade the trend. It is strong and has broken all resistance so far on strong volume. Don’t fight it until it changes.
    If worried use tight stops.
    If unsure bank half profits and let the other half ride the trend, if even more unsure leave only 1/4 profits to ride trend.

    A lot of the technical guys out there are great at describing what has just happened in the charts (rambus?]. Very few put their neck on the line to say what is most PROBABLE to happen in the future.

    I appreciate that Gary attempts to visualise the future. Very few people will EVER do this and publish it, never mind allowing people to comment on his vision. That is a mark of a strong person.
    Gary has obviously got a good sense of risk to reward balance and probabilities that I like ( I think it comes from being a climber – climbers with poor risk judgements don’t tend to be about too long).

    There is no issue going long with well managed stocks that are paying record dividends and holding for years. its just a different strategy. – slow growth.

    So thanks Gary, there is not many of you out there.

    PS for the record if I was taking a pure gamble on it I would state that the low for Gold is in . The low may be retested later in the year, lots of volatility over 2016 (ie good for trading). 2017 the real year that Gold takes off.

    Good luck to all

  11. Walt

    This tiny correction I the stock markets in rhe usa and around the world will be over in about 2weeks . S&p 1750 & the dow 15,200 or so . Then , they will go right back up to where they were 2 months ago . This totally normal market correction will be forgotten in the beginming of in early spring . When people see the markets rallying in the coming weeks at the end of feb into march , and the sky is not fslling what will gold be doing at that time ?
    This bull market in general equities will not be over for just under 2 years . That’s a ways away .

  12. mike trike

    Michael Oliver has been calling the markets very accurately since I have been following him. Last week he stated on a podcast with Jay Taylor that if gold gets into the $1140 to $1170 zone then gold is in a bull market!

    Michael is not a goldbug, he went gold bear in early 2012 I believe based on his momentum studies.

    Give him a listen starting at around 7 minute mark


    1. Mark

      I agree!!!
      Micheal Oliver is one of the smartest “analysts” out there.
      He has been saying for a year that sentiment and momentum they were changing for gold .
      Of all the people that I follow he and Gary have been the best to forecast gold.
      However Oliver is convinced that now the stock market will go down,Gary is convinced that,in the end,everything will go up (just like Armstrong).

  13. Chris

    Well Alex , I sure hope u are right about stocks crashing next week and could be fierce type. In 1998, stocks crashed 13% in 3 days. It is so clear from Friday that market is in deep trouble already. It makes the previous correction just a small warm up. It just like the bulls fur was shaved only. Friday is the beginning of where the knife is pierced into the bulls gut. But this is just the beginning of bloodbath phase. Soon, market will be digging the heart, intestine etc out of the bull !!! And blood will be spilled all over!!! lol

  14. tulip

    the only 2 analysts who have correctly predicted gold & silver since mid -late december are Gary & Morris Hubbartt..
    p.s. theres lots of land out there….. but very little water remaining….
    thank you Gary

  15. tulip

    I should have included Adam Hamilton of Zeal…. he also was prescient producing gold in december…

      1. Anthonyo

        Gary, I dont think neither gold nor oil have made their final bottom yet.
        Deflation is still alive and well in Japan, and all of Europe. Disinflation in US. Fed making things worse by hiking rates which will only worsen disinflation.
        The Fed will most likely than not hike in March again after Friday’s “good” job report.
        USD will most likely than not finish its correction and resume upward.
        Thease are all negative for gold and oil prices.

        Cycles are generally undetermined, calling for another final leg down in gold. Most cycle analysts are not certain whether the current rally in gold is indicative of an “end” to its 4 year bear market. Most are calling for $925 to $1035 as the possible final bottom in gold.

        Gold has been recently responding to USD weakness as well as currency turmoil in the world.
        The current rally in gold has been too much, too fast. It does not ‘feel’ like the beginning of a new bull market. It is a tradeable bounce, granted.

  16. USATaiwan

    Hi, Gary,
    Martin Armstrong said this move is a fake one, and gold will test 1980 high ($850~$870) in the future.

    1. Gary Post author

      I don’t put much faith in Armstrong’s computer. It missed the crash in August. It called for $5000 gold by 2015. It called for a directional change and panic cycle in gold on the week of the 25th. Gold didn’t change direction or generate any kind of panic either up or down. It signalled a directional change in stocks this past week but the Dow has just gone sideways.

      I think Marty has managed to pull off one of the greatest scams ever in convincing people that he has created an artificial intelligence that can see the future. No one can see the future. Not man nor machine. And as I’ve just pointed out Socrates hasn’t even been close to batting 1000 lately.

      1. Anthonyo

        I grant you Marty A. is eccentric and somewhat of a kook. No one, including Marty, understands his matrix colorful charts. Socrates is something in his imagination as he adores Sci Fi and elevating himself in the eyes of the gullible and the inexperienced. I give you all that. But he did say recession after 2015.75 and it seems we may be on the verge of a recession now? Anyway, he is not the only one calling for patience on gold to see where it is going first before jumping the gun and declaring the death of the bear in gold.

        Overall, seasoned analysts are still Questioning it, fro example, “Have the miners made a bottom?” with question mark in the end. This is Avi Gilburt, and he is no slouch.

        1. Guacamole

          The article says 15.01 on GDX is the critical level. Well, we’ve broken through that by quite a bit, so you’d actually have to say that based on the article he’s bullish, if you read what the article says.

        2. Utopia

          Avi is not really that great. He has merely mastered the art of BS and feathers. People who accuse him of calling every trade in both directions are 100% right and I know that because I have been reading his calls since the beginning over at Seeking Alpha where he was regularly taken to task and challenged for never making a call you could actually trade on. Lately he has taken to bullying Gary online and making nasty, snide comments that are pretty unseemly and totally unprofessional. He seems to have to prove himself. Maybe the guy is running low on subs so his tactic is to start knocking down other guys to make himself look better. In my eyes he is a class-one turkey though.

          1. Utopia

            PS: Keep up the great work Gary. I don’t always agree with you but you are a far better analyst so there is no need to defend yourself against braggart, self-aggrandizing, ego-maniac types like Gilburt.

    2. ted

      Yup. I agree with Martin here. And it will happen when the market bottoms and parabolia begins. We will see SPX 2800-3200, and when that happens Gold will be in the 800s.

  17. Chris

    Anthonyo!! Go read your Avi Gilbert post properly. He said if GLD is below the small blue box, then GLD is heading down. GLD cleared that comfortably. That blue box is 111, we are 112 already. What is wrong with u people

  18. Dan smith

    For sensible traders out, not gamblers, there the trend line in gold falls to between $1210 and $1220. Until gold holds above that it’s impossible to tell weather the bear market is over, regardless of how many “could, shoulds and possiblys you read”. Its very very easy to sensationalize a possible bull market beginning when things are up, as they are this month, try and look at the longer term picture. For those new to this website take a look at Garys posts from August to October of last year, he didn’t wait for a confirmation then and he isn’t waiting for one now. Says it all for me.

  19. ChrisG

    Yes Smith, I agree with you. Gold is definitely not in a confirm bull. It could easily roll over from here and resume bear market. This is not an opinion. It is a fact. Gold has done this in its previous bear market. I am only glad I have buffer profits when cot was low, and gold strong seasonality in Dec.

    So given this danger, hence I took big profits, and now left with half position. I know where to place stops. And I will be OK if gold fails. Those who doesn’t risk manage risk losing again

  20. ChrisG

    That said, I believe it’s 70-30, or 60-40 in favor of gold bull. As I have illustrated in my previous trendline analysis of gold and other commodities .

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