1. Russell

    Gary, if you get a chance, check out the long term charts of FCG and XME. Sorta the same thing going on there. I’m also a subscriber now, thanks to all your great advice. if you ever started using these as proxies for the energy and metals markets, with potential entry points and all, thatd be pretty great.

    1. Gary Post author

      Usually when the wrong way crowd gets most vocal about their bias thats when the market turns. They were adamant yesterday that biotech was going to crash. So naturally that’s the time we can usually expect a reversal.

      Maybe one of these days these folks will figure out that they are the dumb money and try doing something different. I strongly suggest a subscription to sentimentrader.com so you can get real time sentiment data to support positions against one’s normal emotional tendencies at these turning points.

      Case in point if the ROBO ratio is saying that retail traders are too bearish, and you are bearish then you probably need to rethink your position.

      1. Jacob 2

        Agree, markets really not much more then a reflection of collective psychology. Earlier in my life read Magee, Weinstein memorized patterns and even took the Wycoff TA correspondence course. Good stuff valid stuff but have come to believe that the most important factor in nailing a trade (particularly a big one) is SENTIMENT. Leaning in the opposite direction at extremes usually pays off. Actually acting on that insight it is very difficult. Stock,market functioing is not a matter of what the economy is doing or will do but is a great measurement of what people THINK it will do. Most of ta just a reflection of collective sentiment.

  2. Bluebear87

    I bought initially @ $6.10 upon fear.
    I then bought another tranche via historical support average @ $5.43 yesterday.
    I then sold the entire position today @ $6.29 upon market weakening.
    I later rebought my same position @ $6.30 upon market straightening.
    Gonna hold into next week with price target $7.50
    Would you believe 400K block a pop?

    1. MuffinTop

      I hate to bust your balls buddy but for the love of God stop giving your Broker money! It’s an absolute waste.

      1. Bluebear87

        Muffin I know, I should’ve just listened to Gary and stood pat! ?
        Me broker love me long time ?

  3. Classic bear

    This is CLASSIC bear market rallies, and sentiment to boot. Every board I watch is all bullied up, and people talking about the secular bool. It’s sucking people in, just like the always do, on classic rounding top action. Look folks,don’t say nobody didn’t warn you, but you are about to get royally kicked in the teeth by following the conjecture that says some silly cycle low is in. These markets are manipulated as all get out, and with NIRP going around to every single bank, and hitting here soon, thats your strongest signal ever to get the heck out of stocks while you can. With the gargantuan amount of debt worldwide, you can’t possibly have a riper situation for massive deflationary forces. This will continue relentlessly, and charts are worthless in this type of environment. We’ve never been here before ever, with this type of situation, so you can’t compare this to anything. Not 2008, not 2000, not the 1930’s. The fed is desperate to stock inflation, but the entire world has for 16 years straight and it hasn’t worked yet. And will never work. No amount of QE, will ever be inflationary as the money is immediately destroyed, by the black hole of debt, coupled with levered derivatives that are far worse than any slippage someone talks about in a triple ETF, like a NUGT or DUST. So for example, those are derivative products that are only 3 times levered. If you’ve been in either longer than a few seconds, you’ve lost money. Guaranteed. This loss rate, is nothing compared to every single bank, whereby each one is levered more than 100 times over ? Why ? Because they are all freaking insolvent ! The gigs up. This fantasy that people have that central banks can keep propping, is just that. Nothing is being propped. Everything on the planet, every single asset class is eroding very rapidly. The illusion you see in stocks, is due to buy backs, massive buy backs on borrowed money, that is also levered. QE hasn’t solved crap, and there is no parabolic blow off coming. That came and went. The vast majority of stocks, are in complete bear markets. If you want to stay in denial, do so. But if you go through the universe of charts, since you people love to see what you want to see, the lie gets exposed. Most stocks are in a bear market still, even after this classic rapid bear market advance. This is what bear markets do. Sorry, but Gary is way wrong here. If you want solid advice go over to Hedgeeye, with Keith McCullough, and pay good money for a subscription, where deep due diligence is done, and not this free sheyet so called ‘ advice.’

    1. Gary Post author

      Normally I would agree with you but we are too deep in the 7 year cycle for this to be the beginning of an extended bear market and retail is too bearish.The average retail trader is thinking the same way you are and that is not how bear markets begin.

    2. Chris

      Classic bear, dont need to argue much. Month end is coming. 9 more trading days. If INDU, SPX closes the month above all moving averages, you can go pay for your recommended subscription, stay short. And the market will put a final nail in your coffin, along with the other bears.

  4. joel

    On the 3 year WEEKLY Stockcharts, you can see that IBB bounced off the 200 week moving average once in February, and again this month. Does this reinforce the bottom in biotech to you. Thank you.

  5. Newbie

    Hi Gary, I regret I didn’t discover the gem (you and your website) earlier and have made lots of awful mistakes/losses as a newbie. Lucky those who did! I happened to short BIS last week at around $56 as my long, because I’ve been burned too much buying 3X longs. I wonder if shorting BIS (and other inverse leveraged ETFs such as DGAZ as my longs) would work better.

    I also wonder if it’s the time to short metals/miners now for averaging down since I need to get out of my losing DUST position (bought at ~ $10 and now ~ $3). I’ve recently learned to use RSI and stochastic RSI to determine when to enter (oversold with positive divergence on daily) and exit (overbought with negative divergence) a position. The charts seem to suggest it’s the time now to short gold/miners. Would highly appreciate your comments.

    Many thanks for your very kind warnings and advice given for free in your publications. They should have benefited lots of readers. May your kindness and generosity bring you lots of happiness.

  6. Alexandru Popovici

    time for crude oil & CRB index to decline and for T-bonds to advance –> allowing me to grow my long position in Ts and to cash in the due profit.

    gold also shows more and more exhaustion by each day.
    monday will deliver the swing low in USX too –> turbo for gold’s South move and hence for me to grow my profits out of the short gold position.

    1. marie

      Alex, did you listen to Avi on Korelin Report? Avi said the action last few days on GDX suggesting it keeps going up, since no 20% pullback. Spot made a high on 3/11, but GDX pushed up a higher high on 3/17 FOMC, GDX always front run. Will gold spot drag gdx down or the other way around ?? I also short gold on that FOMC pop. All the FOMC spikes don’t stay longer than 2 days

  7. Walt

    Dollar might have bottomed on weds .
    Not much talk about the dollar anywhere .
    Its rise on Fri pushed oil down again.
    definitely at an inflection point right now w stocks , gold , oil , dollar/euro .
    Just watching the next couple weeks .

  8. Walt

    The fed definitely tried to club the dollar down on weds with that speech . Incredibly dovish given the USA unemployment & wage inflation numbers improving .
    i thought that they would raise rates until a real sell off , not like the one we just has in jan , then reverse to more QE . I guess they don’t want to even try to raise rates . They’re going to try to keep the dollar index under 100 I guess now going forward . Pension funds going broke before long w these interest rates .

  9. Walt

    Ridiculously Low vix for 7 yr cycle low in Februay . Around 30 ? No one thinks stocks can really kill you anymore. Complacency.
    still no blood in the streets. I guess this false sense of security is what will lead to the big one .

    1. victor

      SPX moving to 2080 in the next few days, passed through 70 RSI with easy…, not good for shorting … but closer to 2080 I will short no matter what. Period.

    2. Gary Post author

      The reason of course was the intervention that prevented the market from breaking below 1800. If allowed to trade freely the S&P would have broken 1800 and crashed down to 1600.

  10. Walt

    Actually Gary , I think its the rhetoric of Hillary , who is against the pharmaceutical industry that has spooked the biotech markets momentarily . She’s for price controls on that sector .

    1. Hillarys Cattle Futures

      I’m kinda thinking the aggressive sell-off in Bio-Tech starting last year may be the result of anticipating the dismantling of Obamacare and all it’s slush money.

  11. Joseph

    Folks, were gonna correct…. SPY, IWM, NYA all hit RES and came DN in a clear down correcting Trend….. Minimum 30-60 points.

    1. tulip

      theres a lot of inflation…not in oil & gas prices tho in my NE State its not that cheap.. (govt)

  12. Johan

    My message is the following, and this is based on reality, and reality is always ambigious;

    In most cases, what we see in the US equity market right now is normally a bear market rally and should be shorted. This conclusion is simply based on statistics.

    However plz be open to the fact that this particular instance may be one of the outliers.

  13. Bluebear87

    Gotta love the majority of naysayers ? here which is a fantastic gauge for the continued bull market across the board! ?

    1. Joseph

      A correction of 30-60 pts is a healthy action to get to 2100…… Why would you think a small correction is suggesting a bear market……

  14. tulip

    Mr Korelin of korelin report or ker is a real tyrant. He blocks those who don’t tow the line in ‘comments’. Now he says Gary is blocked… for making ‘people angry’ and they are ‘spilt tired’ of the ‘drama’…. drama????? I suspect they all missed the rally in gold and are frustrated with Gary period.
    I too was blocked and Mr Korelin for some reason at the same time gave out my email address vocally.
    He lost the respect of others….
    Avi Ghilbert is the drama queen over there. I think Al K is simply pissed off that Gary is calmly posting his thoughts (that have been much more correct ) than the others. Who really is angry over there…?
    Avi & Al….??doc? How childish to block Gary.
    To block Gary Savage hurts the ker not Gary. Al just had to eliminate him out of personal frustration not for any rational reason. What is transparent is that Al takes personal credit for ‘having had the same thought….’ as a commenter when it suits him. And changes his mind every hour on any given subject. Gary showed them up- so he’s gone- that was easy…Its gotten progressively boring aside from the man in France. Its unfortunately evolved into a jabbering unfocused self congratulating loop.

    1. Vortex


      I really like big Al, but I can’t for the life of me figure out why he gave out your email address like that. I never saw it but heard about it after the fact.

      In all seriousness, I think Al is having some serious health issues and maybe he’s not all there at times. Cory should have stepped in and not allowed that to happen.

      As far as Gary is concerned I’m really disappointed that they have openly displayed on their website their ill feelings toward Gary. Its a shame there is such hard feelings because Gary was really liked by most of the folks there and we are all big boys and girls.

      Now Birdman is back and that is fine. He has every right to his opinion but right on cue, he is already creating a s**t storm on the site, but he apparently has full leeway to act up and take personal shots at other folks, but Gary commenting on actual market activity and defending his position has to go.

      Holy cow what a mess and really unfortunate to see.

      1. tulip

        Who should be running ker.. is Chris Temple. A genuine, mature, prinicipled individual who also happens to be intelligent.& experienced. We all empathize with personal health demands… but things over there are running into the ground now. The 2 – 3 commentators(commentary) are pertinent.They add to the show.

  15. Marco

    I know you dislike him,but MA is saying if gold don’t close ABOVE 1279 at the end of march the bear market is NOT over.
    I would like to kill him since he continue to make me sleep nervous and anxious !!!!!
    Are you 100% sure that we have entered a new bull market in PM and that that fuckin socrates is s scam?

    1. Hillarys Cattle Futures

      I have a suggestion; instead of trying to forecast Gold … try forecasting the US Dollar instead … as Gold takes it moves aprox. 80% of the time from the US Dollar … now, look at this USD chart, and think really hard on the direction of the USD over the next few months;


      …. HINT; notice how the USD has spent almost the entire last 2 years “above” the 50 DMA … with the FED now going alot more dovish, what side of the 50DMA do you think holds the greatest chance for the USD to spend time most of its time on over the next few months?

    2. Hillarys Cattle Futures

      If you don’t understand the dynamics between Gold & the USD, your not likely to make alot of money over the long term investing in the Gold sector.

      1. Marco

        OK but not always they diverge,even MA is convinced that US dollar and gold will rise together in the end so it’s not that easy.

        1. Hillarys Cattle Futures

          There will be moves both up & down across the USD 50DMA over the coming months, but the general directional bias will be a slow grind lower until a major catalyst appears (IE: Inflation really heats up and FED goes Hawkish) that breaks the trend.

    1. Hillarys Cattle Futures

      Most Govt. stats are “cooked” … if the Govt. stats were real; we’d already be at a 3% FED Funds rate (or more) with the current unemployment rate that is sub 5% at 4.8 to 4.9 percent … most of the inflation from QE’s have shown up in the stock markets.

      1. Bill

        We realize this but what else are you gonna use as a follow measure, Kings World News? Or Armstrong or better yet Armwrong!

        All these clowns have been wrong both up and down , like Goldman Sachs always do the opposite of their calls … It’s a win all the time

        1. Hillarys Cattle Futures

          When it comes to Gold, you need to be correctly forecasting trends in the US Dollar … 99.7% of everything else in relation to Gold is just noise.

          1. Bill

            Well if the fed wants higher inflation the dollar will drop and gold should rise, gold is but a fraction of where I put my money fact is I prefer physical gold over the paper kind. But that’s me , up or down means very little to me when it comes to the precious .

  16. Hillarys Cattle Futures

    IMO; The Silver sector is about to step into center stage of the PM Bull market and show leadership over Gold for the next little while … in fact, both CDE & AG have recently broken out fiercely and are leading the Silver sector … IMO; Silver is moving into leadership over Gold becuase Silver reacting to the confirmed dovish nature of the FED … Gold was the first to sniff out the weak US Dollar trend a couple months ago.

  17. Hillarys Cattle Futures

    Both CDE and AG have fairly large short positions in their stocks (CDE in particular) which I think adding additional fuel to their fires … as I think most of the short sellers were not been able to correctly forecast the trends in the USD with sufficient lead time… in fact, I think the CDE shorts are trapped and will be covering all the way up to $15 to $20 in short order.

    1. Marco

      I own 3 larger silver stocks : AG – SSRI and PAAS plus a smaller company called BEAR CREEK .
      I’ve already a big position( for me) on the 3 larger mines and I’m puttin a good amount of money on the latter.
      I think also SILVERCORP will do fine if silver will take off.
      But every silver stocks will be a winner if silver will reverse the ratio with gold.

      1. Hillarys Cattle Futures

        I wouldn’t overlook Helca Mining … the company was founded over 100 years ago … and it appears that over the past 3 year rough patch that HL mngmt. has grown their Silver reserves & production considerably while at the same time trimming cost ratios.

        1. Vortex

          I’m absolutely convinced that when this gold/silver market really turns for the better and say silver has moved to the $20 dollar range these silver stocks are going to make moves and in a short amount of time that it will leave even the hardest of the silver bugs speechless.

          Some of these companies trading at $3 to $5 dollars today will move to $30 and $50 so fast your head will spin.

          I love the Phyz, but miners will be the place to be for wealth creation even if valued in crappy devalued US dollars.

          1. Hillarys Cattle Futures

            IMO; It’s prudent to strive to have at least 10% of your net worth stored in Gold or Silver Bullion (with no debt on the bullion) … 20% to 30% bullion if you really like alot of financial insurance.

  18. Alexandru Popovici

    Marie, no, I don’t read any bloggers other than Gary and one more.
    I know nothing about Korelin.
    I think it is detrimental to read to many opinions; the process hazes one trader’s mind.

    ABout GDX, I do not know what it will do, I never trade it or any miner or other commodity – only gold itself, treasuries and stocks.
    I am convinced gold is in an IC decline – a beautiful trend to ride and cater me a reward many times my risk 🙂

  19. Alexandru Popovici

    Victor, I think you’re right –> SPX to start its DC decline next week.

    Stocks show exhaustion. Usually they ride on fuel vapors for a few more days (as retailers add positions) and then overhead supply and profit taking will kick in strong on next Wednesday/Thursday.

    On the other hand, stocks are not shortable anymore, in my opinion!
    The uptrend has been very strong and it is wise to sit on the sidelines and watch the character of the market during its DC decline to kick off in a couple of days.
    If you want to short, then short gold.

    1. Chris

      ALex, I totally agree with you. I took profit on some of my index longs on Friday. The rally is too extended, and i expect a pullback next week. HK, H Shares, Crude oil, copper etc have hit major resistance. All are due to pullback together. My expectation is a pullback, but following week, the index will rally to close at the highs for the month. If so, shorts are dead.

  20. Alexandru Popovici

    yeap, Chris!
    Indeed, shorts could get dead, there is a considerable probability, below 50% but high enough to keep me on the sidelines, for dead shorts and this is why I’ve advised Victor for prudence regardless how tempting the shorts may be — usually such strong trends, IF GENUINE (i am not sure yet if this is genuine or not), end up on minor pullbacks, most often DCL occuring without any close below the DC trendline.


    Now it is the same – the DC to come is best to be used for analysis and not played on, in my opinion, based on my very prudent trading system at least.

  21. victor

    Thank you Alex, reading your post I just asked myself – seen such a Fed market back up and determination to keep it up, probably because of election year, Who am I to fight it? … Unless we see clear market turn and signs the Fed let it go – NO Shorting …, Thank you Alex and Gary for continued teaching of it…

    1. Alexandru Popovici

      You’re welcome, Victor!
      i personally do not believe in MAERIAL AND CONTINUED (both at once) stocks market manipulation.
      Large funds do operate through insider trading and it is them as well who produce shakeputs at certain market moments to allow themselves to accumulate more cheaply and sometimes cartels are formed (just as the recent LIBOR manipulation) but … I do not allow for room for manipulation more significant than these “petty” crimes.

  22. jacob2

    The virtuous saga continues: materials, capital goods, emerging market and now hopefully BIOTECH.

Comments are closed.