107 thoughts on “CHART OF THE DAY

  1. Gary Post author

    Bullish sentiment on gold is still neutral at 61% bulls. Coming out of the last bear market in 08 sentiment rose to 76% bulls before topping, and has hit 90% bulls several times during the last bull run.

    Sentiment wise gold still has plenty of people to convert yet before we run out of buyers, and there are still lots of traders foolishly trying to short gold which just adds even more fuel to the fire.

    Human nature never changes. Recency bias forces traders to make stupid mistakes. One of those is trying to short a new bull market. I saw the same thing happen in stocks in 2009. Never, never, never short a baby bull. If you don’t want to be long then sit on the sidelines, or trade something else. Oil and stocks are both very early in their new intermediate cycles.

    I never understood the obsession with trying to trade both sides of a market. There just isn’t that much money to be made on the short side and markets go down differently than they go up. That makes it much harder to make money selling short. I suspect it’s an ego thing. Personally I would rather just make money. Taking risky trades just so you can fluff up your peacock feathers and beat your chest isn’t conducive to making long term gains.

    1. Jorgy

      Massive $290.72 billion selling on strength number printed in GDX today and a $140.06 printed last Wednesday 2/24 in GLD. Smart money is getting positioned for a super strong non-farm payrolls number which should give manipulators a chance to smash the complex. A big move is coming, but everyone thinks it’s going to break upwards… When everyone is thinking the same thing… ???

        1. Carlos

          Fail? Fail what? So your saying you know better? Every trader plays this game differently.

        1. Carlos

          My goodness, why don’t you just understand the general point. I’m not knocking on Gary for saying that. To each his own! But shorting and puts can be profitable if the conditions are right for it. People go short(puts)and long(calls)everyday depending on how they trade. Obviously, shorting is not popular(never has been), and most people don’t. But that doesn’t mean it can’t be done in a profitable way. Geeez, no need to go further. It’s just a simple point.

          1. MuffinTop

            You just said: But shorting and puts can be profitable if the conditions are right for it.

            I agree.. but the point that Gary is trying to make — which you have ‘failed’ to understand — is that right now the conditions aren’t right for it!

            YOU DON’T SHORT A BABY BULL!! And right now, this Market is showing signs of a baby bull and it’s really too bad that some of you are too freaking dense to catch on, Lol!

            Oh my Lord.

          2. Carlos

            Muffin top, thanks for the nice response. I was responding to the third paragraph. I don’t follow Gary religiously like most here. If I misinterpreted it ok then. Some jerks on this blog.

        1. Carlos

          Fail? Fail what? So your saying you know better? Every trader plays this game differently.

  2. Duncan Smith

    “I never understood the obsession with trying to trade both sides of a market”

    If you have the skills why not. Gold fell from $1900 to $1070 thats a lot of money to made on the short side. Many analysts called for $1000 when gold was at its peak, hats off to them for those calls.

    1. Ralph Wiederzane

      But most of those geniuses are still waiting for $900 gold and not getting long and heavy now, that is the problem.

      1. Duncan Smith

        I don’t think they are geniuses, just good chart readers. $1070 is close to $1000 so i’m sure some reversed for the current trend. Again if they made a packet shorting good for them. It’s clearly not Garys way, I don’t see why he needs to bash anyone who suggests shorting. Between 2012-1016 the gold short has been a great trade.

    2. mike trike

      Gary said don’t try to short a new bull market. When gold went from $1900 to $1070, gold was in a bear market. Completely different. Gary didn’t say don’t short a bear market.

      1. MuffinTop

        Oops! Sorry, that ‘Fail’ was meant for the other two goofballs [above you] who clearly didn’t understand the intended message provided by our host ?

    3. Richard

      People are talking about “shorting” gold and playing both sides of the market.
      What level are these people looking for in shorting? Assuming, they are not the bears that believe gold is going to a new low.

  3. Dan

    Gold and miners are just establishing a positive correlation with stocks. They will both get destroyed in the coming deflation.

  4. Da

    Nat gas can go to late 90s lows, but precious metals apparently can’t. Shows the delusion of this goldbug thinking at the edge of a global deflationary cliff dive.

  5. bhowe

    Thanks for Sharing GARY. good charts. You have been right on about this being a violent move higher when the Bull returns, and it has. You were right on warning not to short this new Bull. Good job. Tough now to pick a miner to enter a position with. AUMN is beaten down and may be the only one left. Ric was but has recovered. Any ideas?

    1. Gary Post author

      I only trade ETF’s. You could just put some money in GDX and GDXJ and stick em in the vault for the next 4-5 years. That’s what I’m doing with most of the accounts I manage.

    2. red

      Is this company still in Vancouver .. can anyone in Vancouver check their windows?

      Sandstorm Gold Ltd.
      400 Burrard Street
      Suite 1400
      Vancouver, BC V6C 3A6

  6. Alexandru Popovici

    yes, indeed, Gary.
    I just bought premarket GLD at 119, equivalent of gold 1245, as I saw USX’s swing high and gold’s break of the upper trend line.
    I have a smaller weight on it though since I’ve given stocks most of my “bread”.

    1. Alexandru Popovici

      ….I’ve bought the gold even if I still see a very high probability of miners falling into DCL tomorrow and USX producing a temporary exhaustion up thrust.
      I am surprised to see so much ability of gold to lead miners – it has done it continually since its bottom in DEC.

  7. Jorgy

    Massive $290.72 billion selling on strength number printed in GDX today and a $140.06 printed last Wednesday 2/24 in GLD. Smart money is getting positioned for a super strong non-farm payrolls number which should give manipulators a chance to smash the complex. A big move is coming, but everyone thinks it’s going to break upwards… When everyone is thinking the same thing… ???

    1. Gary Post author

      FWIW when I see an unrealistic number like that I take it with a grain of salt. When I see selling on strength numbers in the range of 20-30 million then I take notice.

      300 million is what is normal in the SPY it’s not a believable number for such a small vehicle like GDX.

      There was 130 million BoW in GLD on Monday.

      With the euro on the verge of a rally out of a DCL and the dollar to fall I would not be short gold in a pennant continuation pattern. Just trade something else.

      1. Herman

        I would not short gold here either, but gold will not necessarily rally when USD sells off. There are more factors to consider. Though gold has held up well.

  8. Walt

    I’m watching that perfect euro head and shoulder chart developing that you have above with the head at 114 and the shoulder at 109 . Looks to finag the other shoulder @100 , which would be partite the US dollar by the end of march

    1. Gary Post author

      One would have to squint really hard to imagine a head and shoulders pattern on the euro chart. All I see is a long base building, and a double bottom that mirrors the double top in the dollar.

  9. Alexandru Popovici

    Victor, I’ve bought NSA to a full position of 25% of my portfolio – average acquisition price of 18.60.
    Thus now I am 100% invested as follows:
    – 51% long 4 stocks
    – 23% long gold via GLD
    – 26% short treasuries.

  10. Gary Post author

    And there is the breakout from the pennant. Now the only question is whether the rally stops at around 1300 or whether this was a midpoint consolidation and gold is going to 1400 before the intermediate cycle tops.

    1. Alexandru Popovici

      tomorrow’s jobs report has the key.
      USX is already in confirmed DC decline – both swing high and DC trend line break – and a big, >250k number would set its DCL tomorrow with disastrous effect on miners and with a break on gold.
      Otherwise, <200k … profits out of gold at least (don't know about miners) will poor in 🙂

      1. Gary Post author

        The dollar can’t form a DCL in one day. Plus the currency you need to watch is the euro not the dollar. The euro is forming a DCL. If it’s going to be left translated and move down into an ICL then it will only rally for 5-10 days. The dollar would drop into a half cycle low and then make a higher high.

        So pay attention to the euro for the next week, the euro cycle is the controlling cycle right now. The dollar will move inversely to it.

    2. Rob

      Good call. It seems I will not get my pullback to 1180 again. I do not want to chase this rally, are you still sticking to a sizeable correction by May?

    1. Alexandru Popovici

      that’s retailers’ thinking.
      it is retailers’ shorts and hasty-taking-of profits that produce these small pullbacks while smart money buys in.

  11. Gary Post author

    Looks like the only scam was Armstrong trying to sell his BS computer program.

    Just like I predicted he was wrong at the bottom just like he was wrong at the top in 2011.

    1. Ralph Wiederzane

      Good shooting Gary, you’ve been all over this metals and miners rally. Armstrong is a convicted cheat, not sure why anybody listens to a scammer.

  12. tom

    I took profit last week and now I have to jump on bandwagon before baby bull keep charging higher and higher.

  13. Anthonyo

    Armstrong was recently seen making gestures towards the “baby bull” secretly trying to teach it how to use Socrates.

  14. Anthonyo

    Armstrong was seen riding the beach ball trying to keep it down under the water with his considerable weight. He had a 1980 style swim briefs on.

    1. Gary Post author

      He pissed me off over the last couple of years with his constant digs at gold bulls and crap about the bear being natural and not manipulated. He took a lot of shots at the bulls accusing them of trying to sell gold when in fact he was the one trying to sell something. His bull shit computer program. Now it’s time for the roles to reverse.

      He’s cost his followers the opportunity to ride the initial rally out of the bear market bottom with his inability to spot the turn and nonsense crap about sub $1000 gold.

      He deserves every bit as much punishment as he dished out to the bulls over the years. Hopefully people will quickly recognize him for the scam artist he is.

      1. Ralph Wiederzane

        Norcini isn’t as well known at Armstrong but I’d clump him in there as being a clown as well.

          1. Richard

            I haven’t heard from him in a long time. Is he coming out of the woodwork again? Granted I really do not tune in CNBC or the likes anymore.

  15. jacob 2

    U.S. market down but gold, materials, emerging market and everything else inflationary ….UP BIG TIME…. THE TIMES THEY ARE A CHANGING. How sweet it is.

    1. Richard

      All of the things that have been massively shorted over the past years are up. Cannot make a conclusion yet that this is nothing more than a giant unwind. Watch these issues at resistance or they may prove to be just another snapback rally.

      1. jacob 2

        Also had that thought. Prefer to think of it as a change in market leadership. Time will tell. Thanks.

        1. Richard

          It could very well be a change in leadership. I am in the camp of a reversion first. Then, primarily we need to see those nasty cons. staples blow-off and reverse down. XLP 55.

  16. KLO

    Hats off to you Gary. You are nailing it. Most important thing I’m taking home from you work….you make money staying in the bull market and loose money getting too fancy with trading. Bravo Gary!

    And once we clear the recent highs on spot gold and the miners we should really get some fireworks to the upside. I think there are quite a few bears hoping this is just a scary double top and not seeing it for the breakout that it is. 2 words….bull fuel.

  17. Marco

    do you think that the second part of the gold bull market of the 70’s could be a good indication to understand the moves of PM from now on?
    It went from 100 to 870 in about three years.
    Could be realistic 7-8000 dollars in 2119/2020?
    Or we are in a completely different situation?

  18. Anthonyo

    This rally in gold is NOT due to natural market forces… obviously it is being manipulated UP(or allowed to go up)…

    The Question is Why?

    1. Richard

      The FED wants to prove their really is inflation after all so they can achieve their target.

        1. Anthonyo

          Yes, good news, bad news, golds moves up , volume is there for busting resistance and then just drifts up again…Why?
          It is being manipulated up.

        2. Anthonyo

          Yes, good news, bad news, golds moves up , volume is there for busting resistance and then just drifts up again…Why?
          It is being manipulated up.

    2. Gary Post author

      I would argue that the natural path would have been for gold to follow stocks higher during QE 3 just like it did during QE1 & 2. The only reason it didn’t was because a bear market was created in the futures market by manipulation when the position limit rules were suspended. Now gold is just breaking the manipulation.

        1. Anthonyo

          Exactly, why? And why is gold suddenly attained thsi super powers to break the downward manipulation?..Hummm, I remain skeptical. something’s not right…

  19. Anthonyo


    There have been five previous golden crosses in gold futures and the gold ETF over the past 10 years. Only the ones that appeared in December 2006 and February 2009 led to longer-term uptrends. The ones appearing in September 2012, March 2014 and July 2014 only led to very short-term rallies, followed by longer-term declines.

    Andrew Adams, market strategist at Raymond James, wrote in a note to clients that he doesn’t put a lot of emphasis on golden crosses, or the opposite death crosses, because he believes “they do a better job of telling investors what has already happened rather than what is going to happen.”


  20. Stefan

    Ok wish me good luck, bought DUST again, this smells like a double top !

    This is a bear rally !

    1. Gary Post author

      How many times must one keep making the same mistake. Just sit on the sidelines if you don’t want to stay long but to just keep getting trampled by the bull over and over in a triple leveraged inverse fund is insanity. You will destroy your account.

  21. Bill

    On jobs report well it will either be total bulkshit or total bullshit, sure there are jobs out there but they are shit go no where jobs. Will it affect the gold market and push us to 1300 we shall see, I always like to remain neutral on jobs repot days. Either way if we drop I’ll take the opertunintyoportunity to load up on more miners M, like Gary I’m in it for the long haul not day trades.

    Cheers SMT posters


  22. Stefan

    I wouldn’t surprised if there is a HUGE SMACK in gold tomorrow !

    Short term bearish, mid term bullish, long term bearish, super long term extremely bullish 🙂

  23. Walt

    I’ll wish you luck Stefan !
    I’m waiting for us to touch $23 GDX
    to confirm the resumption of the gold bull for me .
    I will wait for a pullback from there to $17 to go long .

    1. MuffinTop

      Naaaaah! Jorgy and Stefan are busy filling up my Account — Let the pigs get slaughtered I says 🙂

        1. victor

          I also think gold should move down for a couple days, Dusted it at 3.72 price, small amount just 305 shares…, let see NF report it should be good…, stop in place…

  24. Gherkin

    That chap, Dan Norcini, is the one that irks me the most; he just refuses to allow for the possibility of any market manipulation at all. This despite all the fines the banks have paid, the admission of a “fix” etc etc etc. He just shrugs it off and says gold builds are “hysterical” in their conspiracies….

  25. Joe

    Just sold half my NUGT at 62.07 (500 shares). Kept the other 500. Either way I’ll be happy tomorrow.

  26. Enoch

    the mining share sector is exhusted. despite gold making a higher high, many stocks still hasnt put in a new top. which is vastly concerning if your holding miners. I am still expecting a huge shake out in gold in the coming weeks. amid delayed but will wait patiently for re-entry at much lower prices.

      1. Enoch

        over all miners have entered a bull market yes, but it is exhausted. not saying it is looking bad, but right now there isnt enough buyers like it did that preceded it’s run off the low. certainly it can continue to inch higher as gold keeps moving up, but as soon as there is a swing low for gold it will crush the sector. just waiting for the right moment to buy back my shares.

        1. Enoch

          10 days ago I was expecting gold to breakout and poke above 1260, it only happened 10 days later amid being late than never. now it has fulfilled this it is ripe for a steeper correction. Tomorrow’s payroll number would be a nice catalyst, my own window is pointing gold strength in the middle of March and a swing low for the next 2 weeks.

  27. klo

    Bear market rally? Hogwash! It is unfolding just as Gary said it would. In December and January past this market starting acting differently than it had been for the last 4+ years. The bear had to end sometime. Many miner’s are doubles already from 1 month ago.

    Now it is buy and hold or buy the dip but except for the very nimble short term trade forget about trying to short the precious metals. Financial suicide.

  28. dave

    Armstrongs comments are directed at bullion sellers who ALWAYS find a new crisis to sell coins to the public. Since his first general target low date for gold was late Nov. to early Dec. you would have been in good shape purchasing coins at that time. His free site offers a lot of diverse information on a myriad of subjects for thinking individuals with no purchase necessary.
    Thanks for the free charts and commentary Gary.
    Best wishes to us all

  29. Anthonyo

    March 3 Gold & Silver Trading Alert: Low Volume Upswing
    Gold silver and miners moved higher once again, but the volume that accompanied these moves was relatively low. This is generally a bearish sign, but still, gold doesn’t want to break much lower and each attempt is invalidated.

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