For months and months I’ve been saying that the CRB would form its final 3 year cycle low along with the 7-year cycle low in the stock market. This has been the pattern for the last decade and a half.
Considering the CRB is now deep in the timing band for a major cycle bottom, the odds are good that the low last month was the final 3 YCL. That is, commodities have bottomed.
If that’s the case then stocks have to have also formed their 7 YCL. I would have liked to see the S&P test 1600 but it’s not looking good at this point.
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Re. stocks outlook – check these charts: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-03-06/were-eye-storm-rothschild-fears-daunting-litany-problems-ahead
Does anyone really think central banks will just sit on the sidelines and wait for everything to tank?
I think they learned their lesson in 2008 and this time they will be proactive and start printing long before things get serious.
Gary — Maybe, just maybe.. You are indirectly giving the FED too much credit. It cannot indefinitely control and manipulate, eventually the laws of economics [or the forces of nature if you will], will come to pass.. much like the Bullion Banks can or could only keep Gold suppressed for so long.
I agree with you that Central Banks aren’t dumb enough to sit on the sidelines but I’m not yet convinced that this ‘would be’ Bear Market has been completely averted 😐 and would only trade short term until more evidence proves otherwise.
With the ability to print unlimited dollars central banks can stop bear markets. We saw that in 2009 when the halted the most extreme right translated 4 year cycle in history dead in it’s tracks. They also halted the crash in 2010 & 2011 which was the market trying to revert back to the natural bear market.
What they can’t control is the bubble that they will create by going down this path. When the bubble pops then they will be powerless to stop the implosion. The liquidity will flow into commodities and cause inflation followed by deflation as the economy collapses. A repeat of 2008.
Time for crash and burn on Gold and GDX.
I think 40%-50% chance Gold makes a lower low and GDX hold above its low.
But either way, it is gonna fold.
Boy would that be the ultimate bull trap.
More broken record ” I thinks “…great Idea lets keep doing the same thing over and over again hoping for a different result…Lol
Eventually you’ll be correct…but by then you may be broke as well.
Go back and see the history.
I was long most of this rally and I am short PAAS at $9.25 and IAG at $3.28 (CAD).
and BTW everyone who was short blindly made money for 5 years, so if they did the same thing over and over, they made money.
It is the bull case that has not yet been made.
GDX should still eventually hit single digits and gold should still eventually see sub-$1000. Schiff-tards all over the world will wish they never heard of GDX or Gold by the time the final low is in! 🙂
Think you missed the bus Jay, that was last year.
Have to say Nat Gas has not followed the rise in the CRB yet, so this could be a good buy right now?
IBB … Almost rally time:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IBB&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p86412519083
It sould rally back to the 50 then continue the decline
I think we are in an $GOLD A wave after a 4 year D wave decline.
A wave to test underside of the initial D wave breakdown.
$GOLD $1525 to $1550
My thought also. I’m guessing it will take two intermediate cycles to complete the A-wave.
I ain’t never sellin’ no gold, no where, no how.
The analysis now should be focused only on fundamentals for stocks market.
I think that the idea we are past the 7YCL will be proven wrong if last jobs report reflects the true status of US economy – beginning of overheating.
If US economy is overheating, it is a matter of time (weeks/several months) until money managers anticipate the top of the US economic cycle and the ensuing deteriorating corporate profits, anticipation which can mean only one things –> that we are now in a dead cat bounce which mimics a new multi-year cycle owing to the strength of the IC advance and resumption of falls later this year.
Technically, this idea is statistically backed by the break of NYSE’s 200Wma on JAN8 –> such a break has always been like a strong influenza, taking markets from two months to 2 years until a bottom was set.
SPX is close to a correction, it’s rolling over this week. Maybe a top on Friday so 1600 for SPX is looking really good 🙂
Once again the never learn short crowd implodes… Sad really yet funny all at the same time… Follow this bunch at your own peril.
Gary rocks the house…
These are new history making events QE negitive interest rates forget the past those days are over!!
One for you Bill:
“The modern mind dislikes gold because it blurts out unpleasant truths.”
ooh, gold popping this morning; that GDX ‘reversal’ on Friday may have been a big ol’ JayBear Trap! Oh baby bull baby bull, how many men may you gore today? I’ll wait and see, holding my longs…
Clive Maund writing like he missed every part of this grand move in the miners, who could take him seriously with his skateboarder analogy? I suppose skateboarders do sometimes bull flag before going higher into the air, but I have yet to see it, therefor miners must come down? This guy is an idiot.
http://www.clivemaund.com/article.php?art_id=3745
And I love the additional proof he adds in the form of the 3x etf charts making the same doji/dragonfly as the GDX. Some confirmation he’s uncovered!
I believe he caught the bottom, and was doing very well over the last few months, but then got bearish too early on the PMs.
Don’t look now, but bears look to be taking it in the cheeks again!
I’ve been skeptical that the bear in general stocks will be cut so short…but of course I could be wrong.
But even if from here the S&P500 goes to new highs, it looks like the general markets are bottoming relative to PMs & commodities. So I expect a general market bear in real terms regardless of what the nominal prices do.
I follow a few small exploration stocks and their volume exploded today from average volume around 30,000 to over 500,000. The intermediate cycle top is near when the “dumb money” starts chasing micro cap junior explorers. Max another 3 days to reach 1308 on gold, then we correct, and by correct I mean crash in these junior explorers. Bull market or not, even baby bulls toss inexperienced riders to show them who’s boss.