72 thoughts on “CHART OF THE DAY – $GOLD and stocks

  1. RickyBobby

    Everyone and their mother is short gold! The perambulation are all calling for a “devastating pullback” lol.
    Gary, you will be right again – gold to $1350+ now .. Cue the shock and awe

    1. Dang

      I’m sure some have, whatever happens today will barely register on the chart 4-5 years from now…not everyone is chasing every wave.

      1. Jay

        That would include me….with a little on the side for simple trades. Gary’s correct though, on days like the yesterday and today, it tests the nerves.

    2. Richard

      I don’t know about 4-5 years; however, Intermediate bottom in place above resistance on many miners.
      Will remain 100% long miners until proven otherwise.
      Will increase to 200% on completion of correction.

  2. Alexandru Popovici

    Stock market has still got a sick structure, it proves it by each day.
    It had a major attempt for healing on Friday, FEB26, but it was a failed attempt, as failed as a failed breakout looks on a chart πŸ™

    Real “baby bulls”, as Gary nicely calls, should not bear such a mal-structure and evince failed attempts for improvement.
    Shortly put, it is unwise to go long stocks yet – we are in the same kind of market feeling as we were at the end of last SEP.

  3. Walt

    Alex, everyone is bearish on stock market now . Jp Morgan , goldman , Bof A , Joe six pack , and look at the ” dome of doom ” .
    I’m bearsh too , but isn’t it these kinds of sentiment causes it to keep going up .
    I haven’t seen one person bullish right now .

    1. Richard

      Walt,
      I wouldn’t adhere too much to those “free statements” from the big banks. They have other motives here for that stuff and their track records on these statements are not even 50%. These reports also do not come from their trading departments and can often contradict their actual positions.
      Secondly, there is no accurate way to measure or quantify your last statement with respect to the markets, “I haven’t seen one person bullish right now.” I have seen reports showing quite the contrary, that retail money was flowing into many of the momentum stocks, AMZN, NFLX, etc. over the past month or so.

    1. Alexandru Popovici

      Walt, I am not saying that 99% the market topped yesterday. I am saying it is too risky to be on board.

      The market can deliver a higher high especially that this DC, the first in its IC, has been right-translated. IT CAN HAPPEN!
      BUT RIDING THAT PROBABILITY, BY SEEING CONTINUED EVIDENCE OF AN AILING STRUCTURE, IS UNWISE FROM MY POINT OF VIEW.

      PS: bearishness was not that high as per AAII 6 days ago, bulls ran the game while we are now past the latest top reached yesterday, so that BULLISHNESS MAY BE NOW HIGHER AMONG RETAILERS THAN 6 DAYS AGO πŸ™‚ :
      http://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey

  4. Dan

    Miners and gold have gone nowhere for a month. I’ve never seen a more arrogant newsletter writer after a 6 week hot streak. You’re worse than Armstrong and Avi Gilburt.

    I remember your brutal cold streaks over the past few years, endlessly calling bottoms in oil
    and getting whipsawed in miners. But now you’re too good for Korelin’s show apparently.

    Unless you bet the house on the HUI undercut bottom, drop the massive ego.

    Small caps, inverse volatilty ETFs, and biotechs have been roasted over the past year. I’m looking forward to the end of this year when this bubble phase nonsense will be completely repudiated.

    1. victor

      if you’re so genius why do not produce something yourself? … it’s easy to criticize anyone…, I bet you lost lots of money last couple weeks…, ( unfortunately I didn’t lost but didn’t get either… )

    2. MuffinTop

      Every now and then a ‘dumb-ass’ comes along and.. let’s welcome Dan to the forum πŸ™‚

    1. victor

      glad I sold LABU with profit, I’m going to wait for 1:4 split and see how it behave after, should drop more …

  5. Alexandru Popovici

    Walt, retailers are bullish now because they have been bearish so far and now they are feeling growing angst of not being left on the sidelines by a would-be train moving towards financial paradise.

    You are bearish NOW because you are an astute trader, not dumb retailer.

  6. Stevie

    With all that yapping, small cap hasn’t done jack since the March 1st highs. Instead of recommending folks to buy, you should be shorting.

  7. Anthonyo

    Gary,

    If we started the ‘everything goes up together’ then we can deduce that now ‘everything will go down together’ in this correction in oil, stocks, and gold.
    Yes?

    1. Richard

      It is very possible, but gold has been demonstrating strength much earlier, indicating concern about something in the markets.

  8. Walt

    Hi Alex .
    I’m watching the tape closely .
    I think we have one move higher to get people bullish , s&p 2050-2060 .
    And gold down to 1990-1210.
    GDX 17.50-18.00.
    I’ll sell my 98% SPY & 2% DUST then.
    I’ll go to cash if I’m wrong and the markets look like they’re going against me

    1. Tushar

      Same here, bullish until atleast mid week next week and upto S&P 2060. I am targeting Gold to 1990 as well, probably on Thursday.

    1. Alexandru Popovici

      this may quite well mean that SPX can break higher into the DCH of the next DC which will also make the ICH as extra bearishness will be erased and replaced with bullishness, but that ride is too risky as it will occur on the shoulders of a faulty market structure.

  9. Anthonyo

    Gold to go down into May to 1100 or just below.
    But: We are now dealing with a bull market.

  10. Stefan

    #Anthonyo wrote:
    “But: We are now dealing with a bull market”

    I am not so sure the wave structure according to EW says something else …

    Here is a chart for ya πŸ™‚ I am supporting this view 100% in general terms

    https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-XSiwxkheHQg/Vr0CJR3NWHI/AAAAAAAAb8c/jFLSH5AtP98/s1600/gold.png

    I think a gold price below 700 is just absurd but sub1000 is possible

    (don’t tell Gary, he will be chocked when the deflation crash crap hits the fan)

    Defaltion crash = A new Bretton Wood system or debt reformation.

  11. Stefan

    We are in a Bear Rally for Gold, as I’ve stated 3140times by now.

    Has anyone seen the movie The Forecaster by Martin Armstrong ?

    1. Richard

      Who cares if it is a bull market or bear rally? If you are bearish for your reasons, that is fine.
      I personally do not know how to verify this until after the fact.
      Gold has an objective of $1300 with support at $1,225. A confirmed break of $1,180 would negate the bullish case.
      I am not sure why so many spend so much time discussing bull/bear markets with yearly objectives, etc.

      1. Anthonyo

        I disagree that a move lower than 1180 will “negate” the bull case.
        It has room to fall to just below 1100 and bull be intact.
        And it “May” jsut do that too. Get it? May as into month of May?

        1. Richard

          Anthonyo, Nice, just like April showers bring golden May flowers and not the other way around!
          Anyhow, for me, a short term decline below $1,180 would indicate more repair and base building is required and opens the $1,100 door, which may or may not (may again) lead to a lower low.

          1. Anthonyo

            You got it baby.
            Oh it will do base building alright after it goes to 1100 or slightly below(but No new lows, that station is now closed to traffic.)

            1400-1500 by 2017 not out of the question… esp if President Trump.

    2. Bill

      I read Armstrong once. Key word being ” Once ” and the rest of what you say it just talking up your position, same gibberish as the rest of the clowns who missed the run up ….

    1. Alexandru Popovici

      wise call, walt.
      yes indeed. We’ve made money both out of stocks and gold, enough to cover over a couple of times cumulated losses since the beginning of the year [at least for me].
      Now we are relaxing with 100% cash and waiting for the next tide to drive us towards new golden shores πŸ™‚

  12. Ralph Wiederzane

    Lots of predictions for where gold is headed, but I’m trying to decide where a good spot is to add to my miner positions. Not today or tomorrow, but maybe if GDX gets around $16.5 or $17, what do you guys think?

    1. MuffinTop

      I think you should take your finger off the trigger and wait for the next ICL, possibly in May according to our Host.

      Patience is a virtue πŸ™‚

    1. Stevie

      Don’t tell Gary this. 7 year cycles are in…
      If new low it’s obvious it’s manipulation.

    1. Alexandru Popovici

      Walt, I think the next tide will be treasuries.
      They seem kind of unprepared to drive higher now, they seem anxious to render a lower low before starting a new IC, so that most likely the ICL will come tomorrow on day 19 after FOMC (which I expect to render no news, rate unchanged for now – it would be too soon after ECB’s extensivemove).

      Thus, starting a pilot in TMF tomorrow near closing may set the beginning of the next good tide – as I originally forecast some 4 weeks ago.
      Let’s see.

  13. Alexandru Popovici

    ….at the same time, treasuries’ charts (SHY, IEF, TLT) look extremely bullish – perfect bearish wedges developing exactly in the timing bands both for DCL and ICL πŸ™‚

    Tomorrow smart money may deliver the second part of the bull trap for stocks as they will take the opportunity of no-news FOMC to start dumping on retailers’ euphoria-driven strength.

  14. Walt

    Probably right Alex . This is going to an exciting next couple of years in the financial markets . I doubt it will go as many plan

  15. Alexandru Popovici

    Biotechs relative to all major indexes are getting to new lows.
    This is another living proof that one should not try to trade on anticipation of future relative strength (regardless of how sound reasons for doing so may be) but on proven RS –> it is easier to perform high reward-per-risk entries !
    IBB or XBI have yet to prove and “yet” is not a word good enough to trigger an entry.

    1. Richard

      Alex,
      Agree, many biotechs are losing critical support. I am not in Gary’s camp on this one, as have mentioned before. The news today didn’t help either.

      Anyhow, what are you looking for on rates to position into long bond etfs? and how long is your IC?

      I am just the opposite looking for higher rates here and am in puts. I would be looking to add puts on TLT a little lower on yields here. I am out in Junes.

  16. jacob 2

    The big reasons LABU is down. VRX down $34.

    VRX – http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VRX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p57505165083

    The universe has sent its lightening bolts at the believers of the VRX story. Default? So I just took a quick look at the balance sheet. They have $30 billion in debt. Only 700m is coming due this year. But if their long term debt enters default, they have to cure the default, or there is a possibility it could all suddenly be current debt. How much cash do they have? Only about $1.5 billion. Those are not good numbers. If it turns out that the income side of the ledger is far less than expected this stock could go below $10. The next question folks will be asking is how much of the revenue is for real. I would not go fishing with this stock no matter how skilled of a trader you think you maybe.

  17. tulip

    Ker comes across as in a competitive posture with Gary…just about all that Gary says Al & doc
    say the opposite… everyone agrees gold down until may.. we shall see…

  18. Alexandru Popovici

    Richard, before closing my computer and go to sleep, it is very late in the IC to short them, particularly by BUYING options (you would lose money even if the market stalls due to THETA) –> this IC started on NOV10 and it should end tomorrow on day 20 of the current DC and in week 18.

    FED’s doing nothing tomorrow will throw people into selling treasuries (and buying stocks) while that will make the great opportunity for smart money to step in with the opposite moves πŸ˜‰

    1. Richard

      Alex, Thanks, I see that on the weekly chart.
      As for options, stay out a minimum of 3 months and ATM. You will be ok.
      A breakout of 2.8% on the 30YR should prove to go to 3%.
      Of course, a steep stock sell-off would place a concern here.
      This low rate environment is getting out of hand in the corporate world with debt issuance. In the next few years, I would not be surprised to see many CFOs indicted for lack of fiduciary duty πŸ˜‰ Nobody is complaining now because everything is ok, but wait until things change and these companies are saddled with these debt burdens.

  19. Van

    SPY recovery is just the annual cycle playing now. A rally into May/June followed by turmoil and fails to new lows over the summer. May-Oct stock market performance is dismal over 100+ years. Amazed no one is calling this.

    1. ted

      You could also make the case, if January goes, so don’t the year. I have a few years when stocks rallied hard in the summer.

  20. Brent

    “S&P Loses Technical Support As Bears Battered Brazil & Black Gold”….zerohedge.com…nice charts and points out S&P below 200 MDA before tomorrows FED.
    Significant Gary?

  21. Alexandru Popovici

    Stocks have scope for thrusting up big today on no news from FOMC and treasuries for falling in their ICL.
    It will be a very merry day for stock bulls – the dead cat bounce will continue for a very short while, a couple of days.

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