And again you see why you never short a baby bull. Just as I predicted, the $GOLD and $HUI shorts needed to get kicked in their shorts one more time. That being said, be careful as somewhere in here the big money will manufacture a breakout to sucker in buyers so they can unload their shares and ounces to them.
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The same idiots that continue to short gold also continue to short the stock market. How many times must I say this: Everything is going up together.
Wow.. Great calls, Gary. Miners just didn’t move today, they sprinted. Good ol Clive needs to check his Moron Index again.
Clive Maund is getting wrecked so far this year! He’s been shorting the miners and gold all the way up! Poor guy
Yes he has.
Congrats on Mexus, BTW Richybobby. I don’t know if you are the same RickyBobby from the IHUB board, but it’s been fun riding it for 1000+% gains. We have still a long way to go as I see us doing another 20 bagger once the JV and production get underway.
To say clive maund is short miners and gold all the way up is very wrong. He was a PM bull since dec and jan. He only turned bear these few weeks.
Being short the strongest bull move we’ve ever seen makes Clive Maund a weiner, with his recent “analysis” suggesting a market can’t go higher because gravity affects skateboarders.
Maund’s day in teh market is coming soon on his shorts. Today was kind of an exhaustion gap to the upside in gold, a gross over reaction to Fed staying pat. As Gary mentioned, the bigmoney “Hoovering in” suckers in for a big drop now.
I agree that gold will retrace sometime soon, but I don’t think it will be as bad as people are saying. You have people like me who are ready to load the boat on the next decline since everybody and their brother are waiting to get on the gold train before it leaves the station. I’ll be adding to my position on the way down but just don’t see it going lower than 1040.
Will everything go down together too when gold correction hits then?
No, Gold is just late in its intermediate cycle and sentiment is getting too bullish. That is the only reason a correction is imminent.
Stocks and oil are still very early in their intermediate cycles and sentiment is still too bearish or neutral at best.
Gary, I cannot trade the miners at this stage.
Since this is an intermediate move, it is not going to be easy to exit and enter positions. Many years ago I attempted this because after looking at a chart in hindsight, I was convinced I could enter and exit or hedge and make more money than simply holding for the entire move. I was completely wrong. The move went up over 100% in about six months and I made about 25%.
So if the “cat is out of the bag” I guarantee it is better to buy and hold for the duration of the move because the market will somehow convince you not to buy at the correct time.
Now, I have much higher intermediate targets on these, so I remain 100% of my allocation on mining shares. Recently, I have gone to 200% at HUI 170. I am not recommending this strategy; however, the point is that one should always maintain some exposure to a positive move until it negates itself.
At some point, I will more than likely hedge the mining shares with a short on gold.
I could say one could create two trading plans, “papertrade” with a buy and hold strategy with good intermediate levels and the other as an exit and entry system, but in reality that never works the same since real capital is not being deployed.
Do you hold any long gold exposure now Gary?
Just in tech, biotech and energy. those are still early in their intermediate cycles and have a long way to go.
It’s too late in the intermediate gold cycle to continue pushing the long side any longer. The next trade for the metals will come in May when everyone is super bearish again and expecting the bear market to resume.
Is that a new high on the HUI? Sweet!
If the USD tags the 94 zone; I suspect we’ll hit Gary’s $1,308 projection, and possibly exceed it by hitting aprox. $1,326 … if we go deep into the 93 USD zone, I suspect we’ll get closer to the $1,350 level …
If we get a simultaneous combo of sufficient USD weakness and Stock Market weakness, we could possibly even see a push to around $1,400 IMO.
Stocks are not going down. Get rid of this bearish mentality. Everything is going up together. The longer it takes to accept this the more of the rally you are going to miss. Just like almost everyone has missed the rally in gold and oil. You don’t need to do it a third time in the stock market also.
Aren’t stocks due for a DCL soon..?
It won’t start until the end of the month. And we will break the intermediate trend line first before it starts. The second daily cycle will test the all-time highs and maybe even a marginal breakout.
A good day for the reflation theme: gold, oil and emerging markets. Own some oil stocks but not that jazzed about oil as think cheap U.S. production will keep crude prices low for an extended period. Like U2 in the energy space better. A couple nice charts on the rise (own):
DNN Dennison … my lottery ticket and favorite chart
Wow, DNN is still around? I haven’t even looked at them since the Japan incident!
Again, as a big short-seller once told me: “You better believe in the PPT! If you don’t now, you will!” 🙂
They clearly terminated the 7 YCL early. No doubt about it.
Gary apart from cycles I warched Yellen speak and she is totally becoming dovish even though inflation has crept up. As low interest rate envoirnment coupled w higher inflation then is that good for Gold as it thrives in such an envoirnment. April is off the table n if June is the next Fed meeting so if U tell us to buy in May what if in June the fed hikes rates so then what happens to Gold then.
Shouldn’t we have a pulse at what the Fed is doing coupled w the other central banks as we keep our eyes on cycles
Alright Suckers!! Fess up — Which one of you got caught in the ‘baby bull’ avalanche?!
Me, but I will unload in the coming correction.
hi Gary, you said stocks will drop to half cycle low. Do you still think so?
You keep saying things like ‘how many times must I tell people’ and ‘why don’t people listen to me’. But you can’t be listened to AND be right at the same time. It doesn’t work that way. Being right always starts off being a minority opinion. If it didn’t there could be no progress.
I know how it feels, Gary. I’m always right and nobody ever listens.
Perhaps the Perhaps the pull back will be milder than we think
There are too many traps. See my comment above.
Keep a wide range and let the move negate itself first before jumping to conclusions.
1,225 held like a charm and confirmed the test.
Why would you short? Why would you sell? Unless, you were not aware of this level.
Don’t miss the train! I’m getting ready to scoop of some XBI or IBB too, after Gary’s fantastic miner call. I’m also staying long my miners for now.
I’m trying not to get too cute.
Don’t get too excited to about a fake FED induced madness of a $30 rise in a matter of hours.
Dust is less than $3 dollars. That is where the value is imo.
Actually agree with Gary on most things, just have different tactics.
Gary’s timing has been great and no one can take that away from him.
Bear going back to sleep .
You stated above that everything will go up together.
Does that include bonds?
Where is your cycle on the 30YR bond and if the stock market is prepping for the bubble phase, with the 7YR aborted, what yields are you envisioning?
Bonds will go down. Money will be flooding out of the bond market and flowing into everything else.
Good deal. We have to monitor your situation very carefully and I like your latest post about the policy mistake. At some point, individuals are going to wonder why they are sitting in 2% and 3% bonds when their cost of living continues to increase exponentially 😉
And it is obvious that the FEDs don’t care about the end result and only concerned with the moment. They should have raised rates, according to their parameters. They did not. I think we all knew they wouldn’t. They claim uncertainty in the global world. Well, as long as I can remember, there has always been uncertainty.
I am new reader of your blog. I saw your comment about Biotech sector and I would like a comment on Valeant Pharmaceuticals case. I am sure you heard heard what happened with stock…you think is worthy to buy it now ? Thanks
I don’t buy individual companies only ETF’s That way I avoid things like Valent.
Great chart showing the laggard that will move forward. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CdxYRTRXIAEbFwe.jpg