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Backing up the truck, beep….beep.
Wait until we get the next daily cycle low the first week of April before you back up the truck.
Will do, watching and waiting!
Before this is over Armstrong will go down in history as just another scam artist trying to sell his BS computer program. He missed the bottom in gold (just like I said he would) He missed the top in gold back in 2011 as well.
His computer didn’t foresee the 7 YCL coming until we were already most of the way through it. And he didn’t catch the bottom in February)
He didn’t spot the bottom in oil.
And he somehow believes that we are in a deflationary environment. What an imbecile.
He’s a fraud and nothing more than a big trend follower. When the big trends reverse he misses them along with the other 90% that are always on the wrong side of the market at major turning points.
So is the bottom in gold 100% proven?
I guarantee it. The next great buying opportunity will come in late April or May.
All the EW wackos and sub $1000 perma bears got it wrong as expected. As a matter of fact I’ve never seen anything more useless than EW. Complete nonsense in my opinion. No matter what the chart looks like they can always find a way to count the waves to fit their rules. Of course only after the fact though. In real time it’s a complete waste of time.
Gary, disagree with you on Elliott Wave.
Many believe you can trade using Elliott Wave, especially on small timeframes.
Unfortunately, about 95% of people using EW use it incorrectly and thus give it a bad reputation.
You cannot “trade” with Elliott Wave.
Wow, that sounds like Jim Morrison, “You cannot petition the lord with prayer.”
Anyhow, stocks are most likely in an Elliott Fifth cycle wave, that has either topped or has one more burst higher.
If your “bubble” scenario plays out, that would indicate that we are in the fourth of fifth cycle wave.
I’ve heard that same excuse from the EW crowd for years, and I’ve yet to see any of them make any consistent calls. The only thing consistent is that everyone ends up with the same count after the fact. In real time you get 10 different counts from 10 different chartists.
BTW the only reason I even bother to comment about Armstrong is because he took such pride in denigrating the gold bulls that tried to expose the manipulation. In the end it turns out they were correct and he is nothing but a fraud trying to peddle a BS computer program.
So wait.. No ‘Single Digits GDX’?! Haha!
Jay!! Get ready to lick my beautiful yet dirty toes — one at a time 🙂
Gary, big thumbs up for calling EW for what it is, useless. It provides trading signals that are wrong just as often as right. It might go down but could go up kind of forecasting is rubbish.
Gary – You may be right, and you deserve kudos for your calls, but maybe the mountain climbing in the desert has gotten your testosterone levels quite high and its seeped into your critiques. Not to say they don’t deserve it.
Hilarious.
“And he somehow believes that we are in a deflationary environment. What an imbecile.”
Well, folks that’s what makes a market.
To each his own, at least we know who we are trading AGAINST. I would rather trade against an imbecile than an expert.
Gary, you are overconfident at the moment, which represents itself in arrogance and name-calling. Be cool about this, what does it matter to you? Truth is self-evident. I don’t follow Armstrong, but the bottoms in gold and oil will set later this year, of that I am quite sure. And when it happens, I will not be interested in some sort of vindication (will be too busy counting my money 😉
The only reason I even bother to comment about Armstrong is because he took such pride in denigrating the gold bulls that tried to expose the manipulation. In the end it turns out they were correct and he is nothing but a fraud trying to peddle a BS computer program.
Victor, please see my reply to you in Gary’s prior post.
Gary, to reply to your reply, in my opinion gold is exhausted, it’s changed its behavior as reflection to USX.
It is a matter of days since gold was able to move up while the dollar was up too, it’s lost its shine even when USX is down and there is plentiful demand to buy it –> THIS SMELLS LIKE HEAVY COVERING ON STRENGTH.
And who has this healthy habit??
Whoever that one is, I’d rather follow its lead while taking a short pilot with a low risk (stop right above 1280) and significant reward/risk potential anyway above my target of 2x.
Why not just make the easy money by going long somewhere else. Even if gold has topped (which I’m not at all sure of yet as silver may be breaking out today) It’s not going to be an easy move down. Gold has begun a new bull market. The moves into ICL’s aren’t going to be easy money like they were during the bear market. There are going to be lots of violent counter trend moves and it will take weeks to correct very little. The entire ICL may only drop 50-75 points but take 6 weeks to do it.
That isn’t the recipe for making money. That’s a recipe for both bulls and bears alike to get chewed up.
Because I am searching of good winds to carry me away just enough to attain my reward/risk ratio. I am oblivious to the direction of the wind.
I imagine myself as the captain of a ship floating on a sunny, windless see, running on the ship from one corner to the other in search of a wind powerful enough to carry my ship (i.e. to reach my R/R ratio).
When I feel that wind I give the order.
The purpose of my captaining is not to reach a certain destination but only to move my ship, I don’t care if North (with a long position) or South (with a short one).
“sea” not “see” 🙂
Alex, I agree with you that gold looks tired, but I think further USD depreciation will put a floor under it. I expect gold to start its serious decline when EUR/USD tops around 1,20.
Alex — What the Hell are you talking about?! Lol You’re on the wrong ship!
Just to clarify my post in the prior thread, my DUST position is very small and deep ITM its nothing worth bragging about, just trying to catch some Coffee ( no punt intended ) money for the Quadruple Witching day, if it make money great if not it can stay where it is…My mining win were up over 1500% so it was a no brainier lol
Nice!
Gary,
This will almost be impossible to answer, but just humor me.
As you look out over the next 5 – 7 years and you had to pick just one sector that would have the best chance of beating everything else, what would be your best guesstimate and would ETF’s be your vehicle of choice to reach that means?
I know you said everything will rise in an inflationary environment and your track record has been stellar of late..
What would be the nirvana sector in a wild crazy guess if the world doesn’t implode because of some insane WW III type event.
Thanks
V
No question about it. Biotech will lead the stock market into the bubble phase and that’s where the most aggressive bubble will form. After that bubble pops then it will be gold’s turn to deliver it’s bubble phase.
So biotech first, then miners.
Actually you could have positions in both as miners will follow the stock market higher, it’s just that the first bubble will be in biotech.
Thanks Gary, I really like your thoughts on the markets. You’re clearly thinking way outside of the box while everyone else is standing flat footed.
Maybe we are already beginning WWIII.
Many believe WWIII would be the result of weapons of mass destruction.
Maybe it will be cyber-warfare, which has already begun.
The advancements in computer technology and cost have recently over the past 5+ years have made it MUCH more affordable to create hacking systems. I am referring to disk capacity and processing power.
Technology could certainly play a role but I think the destabilization of Arab countries could very well be the impetus behind a 3rd World War 🙁
Z, it is not a problem, it is normal for me to have a success rate as low as 45% during difficult quarters as this one has been.
January particularly was a dreadful month which cut -2.0% of my equity by computing its level from 31.12.15 till 31.01.2016 –> those JAN6 stock pilots accounted both for such a high monthly loss as well as for the lower reliability/success rate of my trading 🙁
….on the other hand, now I am +3.7% overall since 31.12.15 which is fine for me considering the thrill of the period.
Gary,
Do you expect a pullback in oil soon? That’s been quite a violent rally out of the lows.
Yes oil will have normal corrections into daily cycle lows. The next one will probably occur in conjunction with the DCL in stocks.
long t-bonds, short gold
They can’t seem to keep those stinkin’ miners down.
And just like I warned miners are again killing the DUST buyers. How many times must this pattern repeat before traders take my advice?
Never, never, never short a baby bull.
Breakout above the 7 year cycle trend line confirmed in the mid caps. The next index to confirm should be the Dow.
Gary, most of these trillions of printed money have not been ending op on the street, they could not be spent. The money will only be put on the street AFTER the deflationairy bust, in response to it. And then, inflation will start, but from much lower asset price levels. It is the timing that matters here. I think longer term you are right about the bubble phase, but the bust is the most important event to consider short-term.
Herman,
The problem with that theory is that “if” we have a deflationary bust, those excess QE dollars will disappear because banks will be defaulting. They will not exist anymore, that is the definition of deflation. The FED has been purchasing the highest quality credit products. They will not purchase garbage.
So the government would have to incur new QE programs and this would be a hyper-inflationary situation.
Not likely.
So right now, we are seeing some deflation in oil prices and oil credit. Soon there will be more, but this doesn’t mean everything has to “deflate” at the same time. There will be cycles.
Richard, I think a price decline in gold from 1900 towards 1050 is serious deflation, the same for oil from 150 to 30. Now we haven an oversold rally, but the bear will resume shortly.
For me, the bust is not an IF but a WHEN. The problem with assuming an IF, is that there will be not enough time to changes ones mindset. Everyone will try to squeeze themselves through the doorway at the same time and asset prices will be freefalling for a short time. I think hyperinflation is a real possibility, but it will take time to build up. I expect gold to fall to 500/oz in the bust, and then to increase to 10000/oz over the course of a few years. Silver will be more extreme. When the current countertrend rallies ar about to finish, I will take profits, convert EUR to USD and survive the bust mostly in USD cash.
Herman-
No doubt about it, at some point in time, the concern in the market will be “How are we going to repay this debt?”
We are not there yet.
OIL: Very possible foreshawdowing of deflation, but there is a dollar component in the pricing of oil. Not sure how much, awhile back I was thinking about 10-20%.
GOLD: Still has to be handled as a currency. Dollar strong, gold weak. Now, is dollar strength indicative of deflation? Well, that is questionable. Look at gold in other currency terms and try to find the bear market in gold as long as you were not invested in gold in dollar terms.
Deflation will not be obvious at first as many will attempt to buy into declining asset prices. Not there yet.
One followup,
I personally am more concerned with the social liabilities opposed to outright debt.
This is more concerning and most politicians / media report on the US debt levels in terms of Treasuries.
Politicians have already band-aided social security by raising the minimum retirement age, but when you think of it, how does that help?
Older people will remain in jobs thus preventing younger people to fill these jobs, so is this a good strategy to solve the problem? Many questions here such as worker productivity, training, work ethic, work time, energy levels, etc.
swing high in GDX. Watch out! Here is the IC decline
Gary,
I’m a bit confused on the big picture regarding the S&P.
I have heard you say, if I have it right, that we were entering a parabolic phase and then a crash. I have understand from your latest comments that you feel we are on the verge of starting a new 7 year cycle.
So where are we at with this, is it one or the other or is it both? I’m not sure how we can have both which is way I ask.
We are just beginning a new 7 year cycle. It takes time for a bubble to start and progress. Obviously they don’t just happen overnight.
My best guess is that it will take a minimum of 2-3 years before stocks reach their parabolic top.
Thanks Gary,
I get it now, the parabolic top is riding up on the 7 cycle….frickin’ brilliant!
Herman, maybe you’re right. If gold touches 1281 I’ll be stopped out.
But I doubt it
Sit tight in the uptrend, no need (also impossible) to capture every up moves!
Hear you, Gary. Inflation is back!
The Fed’s job is to keep the banks propped up. Where are the banks in trouble? In energy credit. What is the solution? Cause inflation in oil prices to save the loans tied to energy companies. Looking like mission accomplished for the Fed. The March redetermination won’t be as bad now with oil between $40-$50 a barrel, thus saving the banks’ balance sheets. Hooray printing press! Seriously, though, that is what this rally is all about. Of course the inflation genie is difficult to put back in the bottle, so expect the Fed to fall behind the curve, creating Gary’s policy error and stock bubble. Hard to believe 1999-2000 will be repeated, but it sure looks like it.
You need to start thinking of the results of monetary policies here and abroad not as mistakes but as intentional. Then things will begin to make sense.
And is it any wonder that the people we gave the printing presses to and their cronies in 1913 now own everything, including most of the real estate and corporations via stocks?
what about LABU guys? Convincing swing-low yesterday?
well, it appears so. Good call Gary, I am already up 10%.
Biotech is probably a Smart move to place some money for the time being, but what happens if we loose our aging Western population?
IMO…the Handwriting is on the Wall…Western Cycle of Civilization is going off the cliff. The bulk of the wealth producing manufacturing Jobs have went EAST. The System no longer functions to where the young can produce enough wealth to take care of its aging population.
The young generation is in moral decay…less job opportunities–apprenticeships etc, tattoos, drug abuse, food additives, gender-bending compounds, public water laced with mind-altering chemicals, etc.
This Cycle s not happening by accident…IMO…if the group of *Beings* that are behind this madness were exposed to the masses a few decades ago, we might have had a fighting chance. But with the majority of our churches being transformed into gov 501c3 churches, the water of life has simply dried up.
Martin Armstrong’s ALF may be proven a fraud when it comes to gold breaking below the $1000 level. However, I tend to agree that Western Civilization is going to “Crash and Burn” and it is probably going to happen sooner rather than later. Armstrong has reports on the cycle of the sun and how it affects populations–if it happened to Rome it can happen to us. The Deagle Report is just one of many warning sites that is predicting a Massive Depopulation coming are way soon. http://www.deagel.com/country/forecast.aspx
Pay attention on URA guys, it’s broke out of old long wedge…, bought promising FCU (TSX) yesterday 6% up now…
Bears picking up Dust under $3 makes big reward already.
Now 100% loaded Dust and short 3x gold
75% loaded Vix
65% loaded 3 x short dow, s&P , nasdaq.
I will average in physical pm at these prices.
I will keep long term stocks to hold.
This is the SM bull marked of your life, best bit to come. bottom is most likely in for gold but could be retested this year. bottom is in for oil. target of $45 by mid summer and $65 before end of year.
Bear back to sleep. Wake me up when it’s spring.
Poor Don, no patience…
http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/Fund/LABU?countrycode=US
Unfortunately this is how most retail traders are. It’s why it’s impossible for them to buy at bottoms. One or two down days and they freakout and sell for a loss.
Human nature never changes and retail traders buy high and sell low.
CBC news network reports,”Oil falls below $40 dollars at midday”, that was 11:20am eastern. Meanwhile BNN showed oil at $40.18 at that time?? Brings a whole new meaning to price discovery doesn’t it?
BANK!!!!!!
http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/Fund/LABU?countrycode=US
The Gold & Oil guy, Chris Vermeulen, says money will pour out of Gold & Silver and money will pour into equities. Short-term, Gold gonna take a $100 drop and miners will take it on the chin….maybe LABU go to da moon for the time being.
Chris thinks the low for gold is already in–maybe Armstrong’s ALF proven wrong before 2016 is over–get ready to load up the truck if gold dips below $1200.
Interesting podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q6zDaiWRYlo&feature=youtu.be
Respectfully, Gold will correct or better term is back test but I don’t follow Armstrong, fact is I think he’s a nut job… I follow my own instincts when it comes to making money always have.
Little head and shoulders action on IBB??
https://s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/snapshots/u/UB7SYL1P.png
Alex, any idea where would you cover gold short in profitable scenario, @1190?
I have no idea, Tushar.
The market will lead me and I’ll decide according to it and to my risk management rules.
Got it, thanks anyway!
..if I could give you more insight I would but I am just a follower of tracks in the earth left by Lady Market. I do draw forecasts, Trading Frameworks, as I also tweet here, but I never make an entry on them – I let the market guide me and I just follow her
I’m struggling with the inflation call here. The Fed is out of dry powder as they are contemplating going from ZIRP to NIRP. The massive contrived Central Bank induced GLOBAL Debt/Over Capacity/Mal-investment that’s occurred over the last 25+ years has reached it’s Apex for all intents and purposes and the US Fed is beginning to lose credibility. Everyone knows the Keynesian system is at the end game. The only thing left for them to do is outright Debt-monetization (Fed buying newly issued Treasuries directly to fund massive government spending) which is most likely already happening. I will venture to say the debt implosion from iffy Auto/Student Loans and the Oil Shale build out, just to name a few, is right on our doorstep as much of this debt comes due in 2016. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to know there’s something wrong with our debt based system. The reset is coming. Will you be ready?
Actually once I accepted that the markets were being manipulated and began accounting for it and trying to anticipate it I became much more accurate on most of my trades.
To be successful in modern markets I think it’s absolutely necessary to account for government intervention.
It is tempting to short S&P500 here 🙂 now Gary is going to blow a fuse, but I am willing to take the risk
Why not just wait until you have the odds in your favor?
Wait until the daily cycle reaches at least day 33 before trying to short. It’s only day 25.
Wait till the intermediate score reaches extreme bullish levels. It’s still dead neutral.
Wait till the ROBO ratio shows dumb money buying calls. They are still buying puts hand over fist.
I would say the main reason for most unsuccessful trades is impatience to wait for the proper setup.
Yes Spx could go up another 60points before a new crash. There is an esoteric trendline coming in at 2140ish Spx has never broken that trendline in history. I traded it hard last summer in August.
Gary, can you please advise which etc for biotech… you said you didn’t like 3x etfs…so why do you like LABU..??
Because the stock market is early in a new intermediate cycle and a new 7 year cycle. Since biotech has to lead the market into the bubble phase I’m willing to buy LABU right now.
Add to that the massive volume indicating that big money is accumulating this instrument then I want to follow on the tracks behind them.
I’ve done the best I can to try and get people off the tracks in front of this train but some people just have a death wish 🙂
Gary, have you any advice on a suitable mining vehicle which will have lowish risk but a higher return multiple than silver bullion if we get a mild correction for an entry in the coming weeks?
Was looking at GDX but would appreciate yours or the regular guys here giving a little input.
Thanks
GDX or GDXJ but wait till May before buying. It’s too late in the intermediate cycle to chase now.
Gary,
Newbie trying to educate myself. Any books you would recommend on cyclical trading?
Well of course if you want to learn in real time you could just buy a subscription to the SMT. Otherwise try googling Walter Bressert.
Keep in mind that many of the cycles have evolved since his articles were written.
I check 4 different websites with WTI price, all of which said $39.44. How does this affect your oil scenario?
Thanks. Will do.