47 thoughts on “It’s time for this lesson again

  1. Gary Post author

    Like I said in my last chart of the day, I don’t think the intermediate cycle has topped yet. 1308 is going to act like a magnet pulling price higher and there is even the chance gold could now repeat the first leg and go all the way to $1400 before topping.

    If silver explodes out of the cup and handle pattern then 1400 becomes a very real possibility.

  2. bhowe

    Didnt you say last week that it may be time to start lightening up on your miner positions? Are you seeing things differently now?

    1. Guacamole

      If I’m not mistaken, this is an older video made when the bull flag/pennant was still forming around $1200, before the breakout to the upside. It must have been posted to subs a while ago, and now he’s posting it on the free site.

    2. Gary Post author

      That update was from several weeks ago. Clearly the lesson still applies today to all the bears still trying to short this baby bull.

      I’ve tried my best to prevent folks from making the same mistakes I made. I doubt many listened though..

      1. MuffinTop

        Stubbornness and pride is why people keep making the same mistakes 🙂 in life…

        Smartin’ up peeps!

  3. Van

    The big moves have been in Platinum & Palladium in the last few sessions. Platinum back over $1000.
    I think it has much more upside potential than gold this year. I know people will say that it’s becoming a substitutable industrial metal, but.. I’ll just trade what I see.

  4. Marco

    You are the “father” of this baby bull since you was the first to noticed it.
    I ask you : when this bull will die according to you? Will it last for another 3 years or more?
    I’m asking this because I’m intriguing to understand if we can take the bull market of the 70’s as an hypotetical comparation.
    I mean the TIME not the price number.

    1. Gary Post author

      The next two 3 yCL’s in the dollar are due in 2017 and 2020. I would expect the bubble top for gold in 2020.

    1. Bill

      LOL! W’ll be at $1400 and still many will be calling for a $1000 in the mean time I keep taking your money ,,,,

  5. Z.Pawel

    Hi Gary
    What is your take on NG? Would you say as of today that NG could be in baby bull market or is it still to early!

  6. Gary

    Gary, you have noted before that folks could hold their gold stock holdings for four years or so as you expect the upside to be significant. Can you please provide what you suspect your gold and GDX upsides could be over the next four years?

  7. Huckleberry Finn

    Coming out of a bear market with the 200 Day sloping down and many stocks having moved 80% from the lows, it is a delusional idea that a correction of great magnitude will not occur.

    1. Gary Post author

      Sure there will be a correction. But as I said in the video the job of a baby bull is to cause maximum pain to the bears still stuck in recency bias and holding shorts, or trying to initiate shorts, and maximum anxiety to bulls who have missed the move.

      I doubt the bull has finished either of those yet.

  8. Huckleberry Finn

    Wanna bet?
    We should be down 20% in the next month. And without going 10% higher from here.

  9. Stefan

    “The next two 3 yCL’s in the dollar are due in 2017 and 2020. I would expect the bubble top for gold in 2020.”

    Me thinks the bull is getting started in 2019 so 2020 is a little bit early imo.

  10. Bill

    This pretty much nails it…..

    Perhaps most amusing about the plethora of “correction time” and “overbought” commentary on the metals sector is: 1) because of the overt and continuous official intervention in the precious metals sector since 2011, it could be argued that the entire sector has been “artificially” oversold for the better part of five years; we don’t know where the true “oversold/overbought” statistical levels should be because natural price discovery in the sector has been completely suffocated; 2) the current stock market, adjusted for bona fide GAAP numbers, is the most overvalued in history; the stock market, by the same intervention/manipulative forces holding down the metals, has been artificially “overbought for at least 3-4 years now; yet, no one writes commentary on the need for a big price correction in the stock market.

    1. Gary Post author

      Stocks should have completed the bear market in 2011 but more QE prevented it. The same will happen now. Central banks aren’t going to stand on the sidelines and watch everything go down the drain. We are already well into negative interest rates around the world. The problem isn’t going to be a deflationary collapse. It will be another in a long line of inflationary bubbles. When the next series of bubbles pop then we can worry about a deflationary crash.

  11. Bill

    The louder ” The top is in ” the higher we go. Funny how so many of you are sticking to the same theme… maybe just maybe it is different this time.

    1. Richard

      Yes, mining shares have more to run upside.
      Yes, stocks are overvalued and we remain in the correction.

    2. Gary Post author

      Like I said, the job of a baby bull is to cause maximum anxiety for longs that have missed the rally.

        1. Gary Post author

          No it’s too late to buy now. If you held all the way up then sell half and hold the other half and see how far this might go. If the rally doubles the initial leg up and makes it to $1400 then sell the rest. If gold reenters the pennant then go ahead and take profits on the rest.

    1. Gary Post author

      Are you kidding me? BIIB is barely up 400% from the breakout. That’s not a bubble. When it gets up 10,000% then you can talk about a bubble.

        1. Gary Post author

          Here is an example of a bubble. Over 200% in a year. Also bubbles are characterized by the public piling into an asset. No one is piling into biotech stocks yet except smart money.

          When the folks next to you at the restaurant are bragging about how much money they are making in biotech stocks then it will be a bubble.

  12. Gold miner

    When Gary tweeted on friday to sell SOME miners,I sold only SSRI at 7$. And got CDE AT friday close.Got back in SSRI TODAY back at 6.94.Gold and miners may rally MORE,WHY STOP MONEY COMING FROM HEAVEN???Very few still in miners

    1. Marco

      So you trust SSRI and the move to acquire Claude,Gold miner.
      I also thinks SSRI is a better company now,yet many people thinks the opposite 🙂

  13. KLO

    I’m extremely bullish on miners and the whole precious metals complex medium and long term but think we are in the start of a correction here. Not suprising that it will take a few days to halt the upward momentum. A lot of the miner charts look like correction to me…maybe, maybe not. Sold a bunch Friday and a few more tday but holding on too a lot too.

    IBB looking a little interesting from the bull side. Grinding up little by little. Buying some of that today. If Gary is right about biotech that will be a forget about it for a few years kind of thing. We’ll see.

  14. CaptBen

    So, probably not a hernia, definitely not a hemorrhoid, but I’m getting evaluated by surgery next week. What do you think, Gary? And what price will GDX top at on this cycle???

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