no bear market

No bear market: another confirmation.

During the last two bear markets once price fell below the 12 month moving average it never recovered until the bear was over. As you can see in the above chart, price has already recovered the long term average. All of the monthly indicators are turning back up. This was never going to be an extended bear market like so many analysts have been trying to call. It’s simply too late in the 7 year cycle for that. Stocks: this is no bear market.

You’ve watched for the last year as I’ve guided traders through the markets spotting the major turns correctly over and over as virtually every other analyst has consistently gotten it wrong, or missed the moves because they were too timid to make a directional call. Let’s face it, by the time one gets confirmation of a move it’s about time for the move to reverse. So all you accomplish by waiting for these analysts to give you the OK is to get caught at the top of the rally, or the bottom of the sell off.

This is not how I trade. I try to call the bottoms in real time so that traders can get on board early and actually make some money off the rally instead of sitting on the sidelines and watch it pass you by. You’ve seen over and over that the technical analysts have never caught one of these major turning points. Why? Because charts are a record of what’s happened in the past. They can’t tell you when the trend is about to change. At bottoms the charts will always say that the trend is down, and at tops the charts will always say that the trend is up.

You need different tools to time these big turning points. You need cycles & sentiment. Technical analysis alone is never going to produce what you are looking for. If you don’t find a way to trade opposite your emotions, and your charts you will never master the the art of buying low and selling high.

I’ve been correct on my intermediate calls and macro calls over and over, and I can say with a great deal of confidence that I’m going to be correct again on my stock market call and especially on the biotech call. You’ve got to quit listening to the perma bears and the trolls. they are never going to make you any money. Let’s face it, the world can only end once. What’s the point of betting on it? On the other hand we have 5,000 years of history proving that mankind always finds a way to overcome its problems. I’m going to guarantee we will this time as well.

You’ve got a very rare opportunity to get on board right at the bottom as the next leg of the biotech bull is beginning. Remember, I said the same thing about miners 3 months ago. No one wanted to believe me then either. The few that did made an insane amount of money. IBB is bouncing off major support and is more oversold than any time since the bottom in `09. Folks, this is the very definition of buying low. Remember, the time to buy is when you are most scared.

no bear market

I want to take as many people with me as possible during the next phase of the biotech bull. If you are tired of watching these moves pass you by, here is your chance to join the party with someone who isn’t going to give you the usual crap of if this or maybe that, that all other analysts spew. Let’s face it, they are only trying to protect themselves against a missed call. If they hedge both sides then they can always claim to have gotten the call correct.

I don’t play that game. When I make a call there is no misunderstanding it. It is a directional call and I make it in real time by recording it to the model portfolio. I don’t wait for confirmations and miss moves. I try to get in at bottoms.

No, of course, I won’t get every call right, but there is never going to be any question where I stand. If I miss a call then I’ll take my lumps and move on to the next trade. I won’t claim to have made the right call because I hedged in both directions.

So if you are tired of that crap, here is your chance one more time to purchase a yearly SMT subscription at 25% off. And let’s face it, at only $200 a year I’ve kept my rates at levels that everyone can afford and I think anyone who has followed the SMT knows the newsletter is worth 5 times that price. My goal was never to get rich off the newsletter. I started the SMT to help investors ride the gold bull to it’s completion, and besides biotech, I also think gold is at the very beginning of the third and final phase of it’s secular bull market. That phase will end in a bubble sometime in the years ahead.

I’ll reopen the 25% off offer one more time. It will expire at the market close Monday. New subscribers only.

Just buy a yearly subscription and I will refund $50 back to you.

Let’s get as many of us on the biotech and gold bull as possible. 4-5 years from now you will be thankful you did.

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  1. Daryl

    Gary, Looking out 4-5 years….do you think the gains will be greater in biotech or gold gdx…????

    Thanks very much , Daryl

    1. Gary Post author

      No question. Miners. They got beat up the worst. One of the goals of the manipulation in the metals was to create the conditions for a huge bull market. They accomplished that by driving mining stocks down almost 90%.

      1. Linda

        Re: 25% off SMT subscription


        I might be more interested in your Agressive porfolio subsciption. Is it the same as your Quantum fund subsciption or what’s the difference? Is Quantum subsciption still open? If I subscribe to Agressive porfolio or Quantum, can I get your SMT subsciption included with it (no extra charge)? Can you give 25% off Agressive porfolio subsciption valid for one day only?

        1. Gary Post author

          I think you mean Quest. The Quest is closed. The only way to get Quest alerts now is to join the Aggressive portfolio. The AP is separate from the regular SMT. In order to read the nightly reports you need the regular SMT sub. The AP is for high net worth traders with lots of experience in controlling risk.

  2. Bluebear87

    MY testimonial:

    Feb and March have been HUGE turnaround gains in my own portfolio surpassing my all time highs set back on 11/3/15 eclipsing that literally by 49.59% and comeback drawdown lows on 11/19/15 of 156.41% per ETF exclusive trading only.
    I owe most of that to Gary’s bottom line calls and direction. ??????

  3. Bill

    This is like giving your sel a Christmas god that keeps on giving… Hell one can spend $200
    Dollars at a good restaurant and not get a refund in return Gary is offering you a return on tot money and the knowledge and now how of where to be for future gains…

    It’s a no brainier folks…

  4. Homer

    Regarding Biotechs, what is your opinion with Clinton’s views, she had a LOT to do with the recent weakness (and yes I can see the entire market also turned).
    If she gets in office, it might be a different story for the bubble, might not even happen.

    1. Gary Post author

      We have to overhaul the health care system to solve our debt problems.Part of that will be to make cures affordable to the masses.

      1. Homer

        If it’s to be affordable, then prices would have to drop a lot, and a LOT in some cases.
        If that is the case then I don’t how much of a bubble phase Biotechs could have, a lot of the components already trade at 30-40x PE.

        1. Gary Post author

          First off the really big money is never made by charging a high price that only a few people can afford. How big do you think AAPL would be if an Iphone cost $5000?

          AAPL is the largest company in the world because they found a way to make products affordable for the whole world.

          But bubbles aren’t driven by profits. They are driven by easy money and emotions.

  5. joseph

    Hi all, Wanted to post,
    Dow closed at 17811…..high in Nov/Dec was 17812….. LOL… TA
    If it breaks above 17840; then new highs sooner than I thought
    Still say high in June/July
    A OIL guy I subscribe to and is usually Bang on says OIL 25-42; which he called perfectly….. He says $45_52 mid summer, then correct into Sept-Oct, then up to $60 in NOV and correct into DEC $42-48

    Bottom is not in yet, SnP down into April 7, UP into OPEXp April 15; Down April 18-22
    Would be great to see SnP 1980-2000….. Great short term long buy….
    Will see……

    1. Gary Post author

      It’s at the 38% fib level right now. In order to make it all the way back to $32 it would have to retrace 62% of the rally. I have my doubts.

  6. MuffinTop

    I’m re-posting this since it totally relates to this article 🙂

    It wouldn’t surprise me if we see LABU breach $33 first before a corrective pull-back is to take place. This is tricky.. Right now, the Market is not letting up AND we have momentum on our side in Biotech.. meaning we will very likely see more follow through next week. My advice, for those of you still waiting on the sidelines, would be to initiate a %50 position just to get you in the trade and then pull the trigger on the other half once we have a proper pull-back. We will have a pull back but there’s just no telling when with momentum on our side.

    I will say this.. I’m not convinced that LABU would follow the Market down into a DCL, so if that’s what you’re hoping for then you could be shit out of luck my friend! This week’s record volume is very telling 🙂 which means instead of trying to time your entry and avoid a draw-down, focus on the bigger picture. We are currently starting Wave 4, which you can clearly see on a Weekly chart, and it should eventually tag resistance at roughly $58 ($290 for IBB) if all goes according to plan…

    Currently Long @$26 — my 2 hour chart and daily chart is still very bullish.

    Good luck to all the sour Bears!

  7. Ras

    Here is another viewpoint. BPSPX is at 79. SPX tends to have some kind of pullback when BPSPX hits the 80-85 range. This is a very reliable indicator. Anybody can check its past history on It would be difficult to move the profit needle significantly on the long side with this indicator close to 80. It would seem the least risky trade right now is exploring inverse etfs in gold/silver. Canadian dollar is beginning to head down, BPENER is heading down, etc. Would Gary care to comment?

    Reactive trading is best and least risky. If a move is worthwhile, there will be plenty of time to catch the middle 80 percent. Leave the initial 10% to bottom fishers and the final 10% to scalpers at the top. Check the recent upswing in gdx on 60 minute chart. Price moved above 200 day ma around late January at 14, indicating a buy. First negative divergence showed up in early march around 20 indicating a sell. That is 42% profit without breaking a sweat. Point is TA will not help you to catch absolute bottoms and absolute tops. It will definitely help you to catch the middle part of a worthwhile move, up or down.

    1. Gary Post author

      Yes the market is overbought and in need of a DCL. It appeared to be starting down into one after the jobs number. But then the miracle reversal occurred, so I’m starting to give up on the idea of a DCL in the normal timing band. At some point we will get one I just have no idea when at this point.

      Of course the problem with reactive trading is that most of the time markets fail to trend so if you miss the bottom by the time you get in the market is ready to correct back down. In consolidations the only way to make money is to buy the bottom of the range and sell the top.

      This is a classic example of how traders buy high and sell low. They can’t buy at the bottom because they are too scared so they wait till their emotions say the coast is clear. By the time they think the coast is clear it’s anything but. More often than not the market is ready to correct by the time traders are comfortable buying.

      I like to buy oversold conditions and sell overbought. We rarely see the kind of oversold conditions that are occurring in biotech right now.

      1. Stevie

        Like right now.
        How many here was talking about further downsides in late January. Now everyone is buying.

        1. Gary Post author

          Exactly, this is why one has to accept market manipulation and be ready to adapt to it. If allowed to trade freely the S&P would have crashed in Feb and tested the 1600 level. But on Feb. 11 I told subs to be careful the PPT was likely to intervene and sure enough they did. They stopped a daily cycle on day 16. There is no scenario where a daily cycle bottoms naturally on day 16.

          This is why I keep stressing not to short the stock market. The consequences of allowing the market to complete the natural move down into the 7 YCL are to catastrophic so the PPT stepped in to stop it.

          These are the markets we have to deal with and a basic fact of modern markets is that central banks will use their printing presses to push markets where they want them to go. Will they succeed indefinitely? No of course not. But history suggests that where they lose control is to the upside in allowing bubbles to form, not to the downside.

      2. Ras

        Yes, the market can stay OB for several weeks or longer until the last premature bear throws in the towel. Right now, NDX and BPNDX are outpacing SPX and BPSPX. That is a big positive in the short term. But, BPNDX is at 81. Over a 20 year period, when BPNDX nudged 85-90 region , some kind of pull back always occurred. None can predict the extent and duration of the pull back.

        Cycles can be a useful tool in the hands of a talented analyst like Gary. But, cycles can contract or expand. Using them as a stand alone tool can be a bit risky. By looking for confirmation from other TA tools, risk is minimized. The success formula is simple: enter a trade only when a plurality of TA indicators are kicking in the same direction, otherwise stay in cash. GLD is in the initial stages of breaking down on 60 minute chart. Ditto SLV. DGLD and DSLV are beginning to make higher highs in the same time frame. Not interested in oil/gas at this time.

      3. Ras

        You are absolutely right, Gary, in non-trending markets. I am interested only in trending markets, at least in the 60 minute time frame. To me, if a trend does not show up in the 60 minute time frame, it is not worth pursuing. You could be right about bio tech. If it is really going into a bubble phase as you predict, there will be plenty of opportunity to catch the middle part of the move during a pull back, for folks like me, who like to trade only what they see. When BPSPX is nudging 80, I wind up all longs and look for opportunities in inverse etfs with early breakouts, like dgld and dslv. I look forward to congratulating you on your prescient bio tech call when we hit the bubble phase. Great blog. Your patience with bashers is remarkable.

  8. Jacob 2

    Small cap miners and small cap bio stocks have a lot in common. They can either make you rich or make you poor in a blink of an eye. Own some of both will probably add some more bios. Never fully Embraced the idea of just buying etf’s.

  9. mm

    U guys are crazy to hold 3x etf’s … they are for short trades only. Look at the 3x energy positions you have … Didn’t buy at the bottom and been holding for months. Sure u will probably make money eventually but it was and is a piss poor trade. So, what happens if Gary is wrong about oil and it drops again? What if he is wrong about biotech?

    Gary made money in miners after a long drawn out drawdown but that doesn’t assure any other calls.

    3x etf for short term trades only … hours days not weeks and months. ?

    1. Gary Post author

      It depends on if a strong trending move is about to develop. Since I think everything has completed a multi-year cycle low I think this is the single best time to hold a triple leveraged fund as this should be the period where the most aggressive moves will happen. I was proven right about the metals sector. And if I am right about the multi year cycle bottom there then I should be right about it in oil and stocks as well.

      So this is the one very rare time when I’m willing to hold them.

      And if the energy trade makes money then how is that a poor trade?

    2. MuffinTop

      I disagree.. The problem is that most people don’t know how to use these kinds of products and they end up decimating their trading account because of it. First off, proper ‘risk management’ should be priority number 1, starting with ‘position sizing’. Second, there’s a time and place for these types of ETFs and when probability — ‘probability’ measured by a myriad of tools, including Sentiment and Cycle Analysis — is in your favour then that’s when you should pull the trigger! And third.. No one said it was gonna be easy, if it was we would all be hanging out in the South France right now without a care in the world 🙂

      Long story short: BIOTECH — LABU — Now is the time to hold short to medium term!

  10. Joseph

    BioTech Tip— Never bought these, BUT my bro agrees with Gary on Biotech as long term hold and suggested the following Not the 3x ETF alone but a balance BIIB, CELG AMGN

    Look at charts for last 1mth, 3mth etc
    Makes sense to me….
    Just a perspective with facta

  11. Bill

    And yet even presented with a this evidence they keep adding to their shorts and the market keeps sucking their money like a giant vacume .

  12. Stevie

    3x etf are made to be shorted. Everyone of them since 2010 and before has lost 95% of its value.

    Shorting a 3x bull and a 3x bear in same sector would have netted big profits.

    1. Gary Post author

      I don’t think you can get the shares to short on the 3X funds. I’ve tried in the past and was not successful.

      1. mike trike

        Exactly Gary, I have tried as well. I know of nobody who has successfully shorted 3x funds. I think most if not all of the people who brag about shorting 3X funds are lying.

        1. JT Marlin

          This is true. Any time that someone is talking about shorting 3x ETFs you know that you are dealing with someone novice and if they are bragging about making money doing this they are lying. I don’t mean to be harsh, but anyone who has spent time on an equity desk or shorted something in their personal account should have a pretty good idea that they can’t borrow these shares to short.

  13. Bernard

    Couldn’t this be a soft landing rather than a new ull market ?
    China is expected to devalue Yuan 10% this year and 20% next year. I feel like the markets will be on a soft landing while this is happening. However S&P 500 won’t have never highs and I don’t expect something below 1700 too.

    I feel like the big bull market will arrive at the end of 2017 when risks from China will start to disappear .

    A recession is expected to arrive in 2017 since sales/inventory ratios are going worse in USA.

    1. Gary Post author

      The economic data has been coming in better than expected. I’m not sure how that implies a recession.

      1. Bernard

        Bottoms on WIX increase while S&P 500 goes higher and we are at a bottom on WIX now. And utilities fell while S&P 500 was increasing and consumer discretionary also fell while S&P was increasing. So all of these mean to me that the latest soaring in S&P 500 was not a healthy one and I don’t expect higher highs.

        1. Bernard

          And I also want to add that it was the end of the quarter and it is mentioned that one reason of the recent sharp up move on S&P was window dressing.

  14. Joseph

    Steve, Oil corrects to $35. Then up to $50 mid summer June/July
    Corrects in Sept, UP to NOV $60…. Then down into DEC

  15. Jacob 2

    April is not the cruelist month for the SM. Quite the opposite. Despite being overbought the trend is your friend.

  16. Bud Fox

    Ah, hindsight trading is great. If you’d just would have used the 12 month MA you could have bought SPY in mid 2012 and made a killing for 3 years.

  17. Irwin

    Nice discount for subscribers.
    However, I will never again subscribe to a service that is “auto-renew” and requires manual intervention to cancel.

    I once subscribed to Mark Leibovit’s “VR Trader” and when it came time to renew or cancel, he wouldn’t respond to my cancellation request. Ended up having to cancel my credit card so I wouldn’t get dinged for another year.

    There are ways to set this up so that a person can cancel a subscription with one click, no hassle, no fuss.

  18. Alexandru Popovici

    Gary, I am now 99% convinced WE STILL ARE IN A BEAR MARKET.
    I know you and others call this perma-bearing but it is not my case – I made some money out of this IC advance.

    Why such a strong convinction ?! –> LOOK AT JAPAN, JAPAN IS TO FALL SOON IN DEBT RESTRUCTURING!
    Technically, on Friday, Japanese stock market also rendered the proof it merely was in an IC advance until March 14 and that it’s started its IC decline.

    US stock market shows some strong breadth (but only partially). This is why we will see new highs after a DC decline as long as the Japanese stock market will start its new DC advance BUT US MARKET WILL START FALLING ALONGSIDE THE JAPANESE ONE AS THE DAILY CYCLE DECLINE RESUMES IN JAPAN!

    1. Alexandru Popovici

      …got stoped out quickly out of my long USO half-position trade putting in a -0.2% equity loss last week, so that I am now 100% cash.

  19. Alexandru Popovici

    and by the way: I remember I had read in a trading book that the English stock market had topped more than a year before the US one before the Great Depression, i.e. in the summer of 1928 vs the US top in Oct 1929.

    Thus, one US stocks bull can preserve his stubborn technical look at US charts while overlooking the important fundamental and technical signals from the Far East as well as the heating signals from the US economy, but that will be done at one’s great risk.

    1. ChrisG

      Alex… Why do you look at Japan weakness and infur US should be weak?? That is a weak analysis. Go look at history. Japan can be weak and US could still be very strong. Japan is a peculiar kid with a life of its own

  20. Alexandru Popovici

    Chris, with all due respect, I think on this particular occasion you have missed to put in a weekly/monthly chart 🙂
    There is no such thing as a “life of own” for the stock market of the …3rd largest economy in the world.
    It fell dramatically after the 90’s deflationary event but, despite continued (but controlled) deflation, it has been correlated with the US market –> chart in a correlation of Nikkei with SPX for 20 weeklies and you’ll have it that the median correlation level stood at some 0.65 for over a decade!!!

    FURTHERMORE: Nikkei Index led US stocks on the prior bear market: it had topped in July 2007 and bottomed as early as … Oct 2008 vs US’s Oct2007 top and Mar2009 bottom.

    So, Chris, I’d more cautious discounting as irrelevant what is happening with the 3rd economy.
    Maybe there were US investors who were discounting the English stocks market in 1928 too 😉

    1. ChrisG

      Alex, you are wrong. I look at monthly and weekly always. Go see 2010-2013 ish. Many periods where Nikk weak, US rallied.

  21. pepe le pew

    Good morning, Gary. What is this obsession by newsletter writers to make their special offers for new subscribers only? You must have many former subscibers who dropped off during the gold decline who would consider rejoining. Are we supposed to ‘know better’ and therefore do not deserve a break?

    I propose you extend today’s generous offer to former subscribers, too. You may be surprised how many of us have been following you, and may rejoin if made to feel welcome… just a suggestion.

    1. Gary Post author

      I don’t think anyone should have any trouble affording a yearly subscription to the SMT whether there is a discount or not. I’ve purposely kept my rates very low so no one need be left out if they want to subscribe.

  22. pepe le pew

    hmmm… I just thought about it. Do you mean ANY new sub gets the deal, whether or not they are a first time sub? If so, that makes my request moot.

  23. Richard

    Folks, I see the argument for the biotechs. My question though, at what IBB or LABU level are you going to dump your shares if the market heads into a DCL?

    1. Gary Post author

      At this point I don’t trust the DCL to come in the normal timing band and with the ad line about to make new highs we have confirmation that the market will be making new highs this year so whenever we get the DCL I’ll just ride it out.

      We may be moving into the runaway scenario if the market starts to accept that the PPT isn’t going to allow price back below the 200 DMA.

      1. MuffinTop

        ‘.. whenever we get the DCL, I’ll just ride it out’

        Gary — with all due respect, that’s what you said last time and you still got out of LABU to avoid a draw dowm. I even called you on it which you were very prompt to ignore haha 🙂

      1. Gary Post author

        Why don’t you just wait till the ROBO ratio indicates the little guys are buying calls and then go short? Right now you are acting like one of the little guys and they almost always get fleeced.

          1. Ralph Wiederzane

            Little guys do exactly what you do around here, chirp all day and try to call the next 4 point move in the S&P.

  24. victor

    Hi Alex, so, with this market advance the most we can see is the DC decline…, and it can be look frightening but eventually we will see new highs. I will go short but really for short time…, gold continue down, oil buying with portions at 36, 34, 32, don’t see it below. So sorry … sold LABU at 27.10 and didn’t re-enter… lost half of the move.

  25. bhowe

    Gary, I’m confused. Didn’t you sell LABU mid last week? Now your saying to get back in? LABU has been up , while you were out.

    1. victor

      it’s always amazed me… bhowe if you follow Gary or whatever then read the posts … why he have to explain it over and over again? He sold it and re-enter again the next day.

    2. Gary Post author

      It’s a lot easier to follow the trades if you have a subscription. You will get real time updates. The blog is always going to be after the fact.

  26. Alexandru Popovici

    Victor, I do not think we have seen the IC top in stocks yet –> we should see a double top (May2015 and Apr2016) before the IC decline.

    1. Gary Post author

      7 year cycles don’t double top. The market already had it’s chance to double top back in Nov.

      Whatever you do don’t get sucked into this kind of mentality.

      Folks we have a bubble phase ahead of us. It is going to be driven by global QE and negative interest rates. Traders are going to make an insane amount of money over the next 3-4 years by buying almost anything.

      I can’t stress this enough. Get a subscription to sentimentrader. And don’t even think about shorting until the ROBO ratio shows the little guys buying lots of calls.

      Anyone who is serious about trading stocks has to have a sentimentrader account. Without it you might as well just go throw your money on the roulette wheel. And from what I’ve seen lately that’s basically what many of you are doing. You are trading your bias, or your gut. That is a recipe for going broke.

      1. Alexandru Popovici

        I agree with real estate, Gary.
        I dont know about oil – it is a cartelized geopolitical weapon.

        As to stocks, what do you think about the IC decline in Japanese stocks market on above-average volume ?
        Each decline in etf EWJ since the top in June has come on large red volume candles.
        And I do not see FED printing money but rather beeing caught in btw low core PCE index and weakness aborad on the one side and signs of overheating of US economy on the other.

        Just looking at an SPX chart while employing cycle and sentiment analysis are NOT ENOUGH I think to call A BUBBLE LIES AHEAD OF US.

        1. Gary Post author

          The 7 YCL analysis is all I need to call a bubble phase ahead. that and global QE and negative interest rates. The setup is complete and ready to go.

          Central banks have just made another in a long line of monetary mistakes.

  27. Alexandru Popovici

    Chris, since the dawn of 2010, there have been only 6 instances when the correlation btw NIKK and SPX at 20 weeks has gone below +0.3 while:
    – the lowest level was an weak -0.25 notch in May 2014,
    – and in one of these 6 instances, in Dec2012, it went below zero because ….NIKK was moving higher while SPX was pulling back.

    This means that over the last over 6 years NIKK and SPX have been in a MODERATE-TO-STRONG CORRELATION MOST OF THE TIME except for once each year!
    If you choose to think that this time is one of those once-in-a-year exceptions…it is your call, Chris.
    Good luck, though!

    1. Gary Post author

      The Nikkei is being driven by the yen, nothing else. That has no bearing on other global markets.

  28. Chris

    Alex, it is. I am on Asia market. I always see Nikkei doing mostly its own. It lags US market big time. So i am used to it. In fact, its 2013 outperformance was abnormal. Now back to US. NDX weekly RSI, if it follows 2011 type of rally, will see it rally to 5000 ish before a bigger correction. That’s a cool 500 points more. So, until it makes certain lower lows, just ride this sucker and SOH… sit on hands.

  29. david

    LABU holding nice so far,

    I think most of traders thinking now of a short term market top, this makes me more comfortable staying long..

  30. Chris

    Alex, you need to realize japan is no longer what it used to be. Who uses jap products now? Sony, sharp etc technology, no one uses japanese. Only Uniqlo from jap is good. Oh, and its lovely videos… if u know what i mean!!! lol

  31. Alexandru Popovici

    Chris, i agree that the Japanese have lost their competitive advantages and on top of that they’ve got huge debt and a demographic problem, but it is this mix of problems that will produce havoc on markets while stock market and USDJPY are drawing the alarm.

    You are right that we should dance as long as the music plays, both you, Gary and I see the stocks market at higher highs (we disagree on what lies after, though) except that here it is a matter of choice 🙂 –> my low-risk appetite keeps me at bay when I KNOW ABOUT A PROBLEM AND I SEE MARKETS STARTING TO DISCOUNT THAT PROBLEM.

    After all Greece’s problems were no news in 2011 and the toxic charcater of real estate market and CDOs in US were likewise no news when the bubbbles burst, except that markets had provided the savvy investors with the requisite warning signals in due time!

    PS: on this continuum, when I read “stocks bubble ahead of us” makes me laugh 🙂

  32. Gary Post author

    Remember when I pointed out the huge volume in NUGT as a sign the bottom was forming and a big move coming. How many people criticized me telling me I was an idiot and that the volume surge was just a function of price. They were wrong…is putting it mildly.

    The same thing is happening with LABU, and the same wrong arguments have been used again. Get on board before the train leaves you at the station.

    1. tom

      Gary you think it not too late to get in labu even though already up for last few days? Thanks for all you do.

  33. Enoch


    will a strong US dollar hurt the SM? since biotech requires i think the SM to continue its move higher in the coming weeks

    1. Gary Post author

      The dollar has had no effect on the stock market in a long time, either up or down. The market has finally figured out that currencies are just measured against one another and a strong or weak dollar index has no bearing on the amount of dollars in circulation.

  34. jacob 2

    Buying more baby bio’s. Charts look the same as the resource stocks in mid January.

  35. Enoch

    btw oil has rallied off the 50DMA at 36.20 while it is slightly away from the 38% fib retrace do you think it is close enough and it can rally out of RSI oversold territory?

    1. david

      Very possible to break the 50MA, just to suck in all the stop losses there, then ride back up..

  36. jacob 2

    A very powerful base has formed in the leading med tech biotech. Breaking out again today. The size of the decline suggests IBB will quickly move to $290 followed by a little consolidation and eventually a return to $340. LABU follows IBB and could quickly move up to $40 followed by a doubling to $80.

  37. Enoch

    while longer time frame both IBB and XBI move closely together, but still XBI is moving nearly twice of IBB perhaps because XBI was more beaten down during the correction?

  38. Gary Post author

    We now have a clear pattern of higher highs and higher lows in the biotech ETF’s.

    Folks there is still lots and lots of potential upside. Don’t get left at the train station trying to time a perfect entry. Too many made this mistake with the miners and they never got on board. Focus on the weekly charts, not the dailies.

    The size of the base suggests the rally will last at least two months.

    1. Stevie

      You are recommending folks buy more stocks after almost a 15% run up off the lows in the past 6-7 weeks.

      Good luck with that.

      1. Bill

        Cut the crap small time … Keep chasing your meager 1.9% I’m up 265% so far talk to us when you make some real money , I make 1.9% day trading lol

      2. Gary Post author

        Absolutely. We are going to test the all-time highs before this intermediate cycle tops. And if the ROBO ratio continues to stay short then we will breakout to new highs.

        We have a bubble phase ahead of us. The trade for the next 2-3 yearsis to stay long and buy dips.

  39. Stevie

    Should be one more push and it’s good night time until May. Looking to sell SSO short again at the close.

    1. Enoch


      have you not noticed despite oil is in full correction sell off mode for the past two weeks yet the SM continues to move higher seems a bit unusual? you remind me the days when I use to pick the wrong side of the trade and while the market continues to prove me wrong I continue to convince myself it’s ready to move in my favor, any day….now…oh crap..

      1. Stevie

        But I haven’t been wrong. Made 2 big trades and both time nailed it for 6% total. What am I missing again?

        1. Ralph Wiederzane

          Keep chirping, but you sound like an amateur to me blabbing about 1.6% gains when your into 3x leverage on your account. Pretty pathetic risk/reward.

  40. Joseph

    Guys/Gals…. LOOK 40% OF INDICIES ARE IN A DOWNTREND….. Three out of five of these indexes were above their resistance The other two NYA Rus IWM are below Resistance lines.
    Concern ?? Ya unless you have boat loads of. Cash or higher risk.
    Best to be Cautious. If your middle aged,Families, or getting ready to retire…. Don’t play around, just wait and step aside until there is better data. Yaya you will miss a 15% mv, Big Deal !!
    Anyhow, For the TSX its all OIL…. So waiting for $34-35….. Will see…..

    DOW still has not. Broken 17812. Or 17840…..
    Makes sense to pull back to then Relaunch….

    1. Gary Post author

      Actually more than 50% of the global indexes are back above their 200 DMA’s after being below them. Historically that has been a very bullish sign with average returns a year later in the 20% range.

        1. Bill

          More like November this market will be all new highs Daily before we have an end of the administration crash u too then foward… I’ll
          Load shorts mid range October when I can buy puts for pennies

    1. Ralph Wiederzane

      Who gives a rats ass? You really talk too much for a guy only trying to make a percent or two on 3x leverage, and who cares what a tick trader thinks about where we’ll be a whole month away? Too many predictions spilling out of your mouth, no real time trade reports, which is all that matter for such a short time horizon bc its the difference between profitability and losing all the time like you’ve been doing.

      1. Ralph Wiederzane

        Let’s hear your real time entries and exits as they occur, you’re here enough of the time so shouldn’t be a problem. Then we can decide for ourselves how great you are.

          1. Ralph Wiederzane

            but at 300% leverage it ain’t a good bet, first time the market farts on you you’re done. It’s already happened several times, makes me think you’re full of crap.

      1. david

        Can you please check RSI of OIL, extreme oversold? its starting to smell like a rebound can happen very quickly, breaking 36 with much less voumel I have expected…

  41. Richard

    Alex, saw your comment from before about EWJ. This has been interesting because it failed support from 2011 and recently rejected it. It kind of reminds me of the oil consolidation which broke downside and trended.

  42. Joseph

    Gary, As a bench mark for me the RUS, NY, DAX , Transports with SnP or DOW need to be inline for a LONG trend trade, not day trade…..
    So I’m not Majorly concerned about 50 other indicies…. There’s been tons of data where US Markets do well and others tank….
    Like I said, DOW hit 17812 NOV 2015, I find interesting that last FRI we hit 17811…..
    I’m not saying a crash…. But test 1980-2000…..
    If I’m wrong, big deal, left $$ on table but have no worries….. Not the time to be Brave for Some …..

    1. Gary Post author

      I’m not much of a short term trader. The bigger trend is up and will be for several more years.

  43. Stevie

    How bout a pic of internals of this market.
    Keep buying folks, some of you will regret this.

    My dogs friend who’s master works in the bathroom of the NYSE overheard traders are ready to dump.

    Good luck folks.

    1. Bill

      Now that’s funny Steve traders talking shit in the shit house lol , if anything Steve you sold to early yourself .

      1. Stevie

        No Billy, I’m back short SSO 200% on the morning run up. How can I not be after hearing the bathroom news. Isn’t that how businesses are conducted on what street? On the shitter.

  44. Enoch

    i think SM is waiting for oil to bottom and reverse. now that it is extremely over sold and it has tested the 38% level, it is ready to turn back up

  45. Joe

    If LABU close red today, do you recommend waiting for tomorrow’s action to see if we get further downside or buy the close?


    1. Gary Post author

      I’m not the one to ask about day trading. If you are trading off the weekly charts then anytime is a good time IMO.

  46. tom

    Earnings season is about here. Time for stocks to decline for awhile. Might be a buying op in May.

  47. El Lobo

    It amazes me how many people don’t value opposing views and opinions. Good traders are humble and open to different possibilities.

  48. El Lobo

    I for one want to hear from anybody that feels they have something valuable to offer to the discussion, regardless of their view or position in the market.

  49. Ralph Wiederzane

    Oil continues to get clobbered to the tune of 3-4% per day. I’m not going near it since I already have majority of funds in miners, but will still hop on the XBI train soon (into the next decline that lasts several days, whenever that occurs)

  50. RayB

    I thought of Gary and his BioTech call when I read this article by Ben Benoy, Editor, BioTech Intel Trader:

    You have probably heard people refer to the seed-industry powerhouse Monsanto Company (NYSE: MON) as “Monsatan” or “Frankenfood.” They’ve led the charge in creating a more climate-resistant crop by combining multiple plant species.

    Problem is, the U.S. government considers these hybrid crops to be genetically modified organisms, or GMOs for short, which I’m sure you’ve heard the raging debate back and forth on.

    The issue is so complex, GMOs are actually regulated by three separate government agencies: the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), and the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA).

    Well thankfully, now we have another option!

    CRISPR, the gene-editing technology that’s currently being used to eradicate cancer and other horrible diseases, is now being applied to plants.

    Think of this technology as the find-and-replace function on your computer. CRISPR goes through a string of DNA, finds the problem, then deletes or repairs the issue. In select situations it can even make an addition to make the DNA stronger.

    When CRISPR is applied to plants, the possibilities are endless.

    Chinese scientists were able to make bread wheat that had a resistance to powdery mildew.

    Japanese scientists prolonged a tomato’s life by turning off genes that controlled ripening.

    U.K. researchers tweaked a gene in barley that affected grain dormancy. (Leave it to the Brits to make beer more sustainable.)

    The best part of applying the CRISPR technology to plants is that the U.S. Government doesn’t consider these genetically modified organisms.

    GMOs get their labeling because the underlying plant is a combination of multiple species. But with CRISPR, the plant species stays intact. It just gets a tune-up!

    Some companies, namely Caribou Biosciences and DuPont (NYSE: DD) have identified the potential here, and are hoping to bring these products to market in the next five to 10 years.

    Still, there’s the issue of where to put all these crops. It’s great if we can get plants to survive, but we still have to figure out where to put them!

    To solve the space issue for crops, a new urban agriculture industry is emerging. Last summer, Harry identified a company called AeroFarms in Newark, NJ that actually grows plants within old city buildings using aeroponics.

    With aeroponics, sunlight is replaced with LED lighting, and uses a minimal amount of water to spread a mist around the plants. And there’s no need for soil or pesticide.

    But this is just the beginning. How we cultivate and grow our food sources over the coming decades is going to radically change as the earth’s population continues to expand and our climate adjusts.

    In the meantime, I’m going to hit the all-you-can-eat buffet while it’s still around.

  51. Dab

    Gary, where is your stop loss on biotech as the IBB chart looks more like a rejection candle….

    Also your blind allegiance to 7yr cycle low is not what instils confidence.

    Market can do whatever it wants, might go to 1500 in 3 weeks if it wishes.

    Good call on miners but do not extrapolate into certainty over other things. There is no certainty here.

  52. Dab

    And also the dumb money is not retail anymore. They left the building. Corporate CEOs and buybacks are dumb money. Insiders are selling. Mind this…

  53. Frank

    It looks like we are definitely in a bear market. No, not just because it went down “a lot” today, but because starting yesterday and today I see five waves down from the top, then a wave 2 correction at 1pm today, then a dive in a wave 3 which should resume at tomorrow’s open and continue for a while. Don’t feel bad. I’ve been losing money since I quadrupled it in the 08 crash. I must really be a bear.

    1. Frank

      I took another look at the chart. It looks like it was really five waves down from the top to today’s close. There should be a bounce tomorrow at the open, then the big wave 3 down.

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