Baby Bull Round Two – Biotech
Here we go again. Remember when I warned traders not to short the baby bull in miners and exhorted them to not lose their position because surprises would come to the upside? Needless to say, many ignored that advice and they cost themselves dearly.
Now we have a second baby bull just getting started in Biotech. It still has a long ways to go. Yet I’m seeing some traders making the same mistakes again.
The size of the bottoming pattern and the massive volume in LABU is screaming that a big BIG move is coming. Don’t make the same mistake again that you made with miners. Get in and sit tight. This rally will last at least 2 months before it needs to take a break.
Today was the recognition day where the market realized the breakout is for real. We don’t need to look for an intermediate top until the weekly stochastics reach overbought. This rally is just getting started.
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Traders say they will wait for a trend, yet when one gets started human nature makes most people try to call the top. They end up fighting the trend instead of riding it. Very few traders can just get on board the trend (that they’ve been waiting for) and just sit tight. This is why very few people ever make the big money.
Gary, first off, great posting charts. Lots of good info.
Question: Why do you believe biotech will rally longer than the miners out of the base? The base on the miners was much larger.
I am very positive on the gold and will/have maintained 100% exposure to mining shares. When I feel the consolidation is complete, I will up to 200% using options. Markets tend to consolidate 87% of them time unless they are truly trending.
With the speculative driver of this bull market (biotech) now back in the game and oil probably completing its DCL the runaway move is looking very likely. I don’t see how we can go back down and finish the DCL with two big components clearly finished with their DCL’s and heading higher.
I’ve been waiting for the 7 ycl to get back in the market but by following your postings found the
biotech sector. Thanks for your insight and encouragement, I took a position in ibb and xbi March 14
and another on April 4. Today was a happy day to see the rise in those markets.
Do you take positions in the etf’s and so which ones or in individual stocks?
It’s nice to be back in the markets and on the right side of the trend.
I only trade ETF’s. I don’t like being exposed to company specific risk so I never buy individual stocks.
Thanks to your recommendation for IBB I made a nice profit in the past several days. Thanks for all you do. R. Yancey
5 ok 6 days of gains and the jokers wild is already calling top in biotech and adding losing already under water shorts lol many earnings for bio coming in May … Long and strong
Don’t mess with a baby bull. Get in and stay in till the weekly charts get overbought. The risk of getting left behind if you try to get cute and day trade is too great during a baby bull.
NASDAQ is 4920, they will push it past 5000, so some more upside.
Without a doubt the Nasdaq is going to break out of that 15 year consolidation. When it does it’s going to go a long long way driven by trillions upon trillions of global currency units. Nasdaq 20,000 isn’t out of the question.
I’m going to save this crazy remark.
I think this is the first thing you’ve ever typed on this forum that I agree with. Not sure how Gary thinks an index is gonna multiply more than 4X in a few years, even with a maniacal bubble phase. It took like 4 or 5 years to get 3X out of the March 2009 lowest low of the Great Recession.
Steve,
This is why you repeatedly fail to make money. You simply aren’t able to follow trends and you have no concept of the fundamentals driving these markets.
It was right there in the comment. Trillions upon trillions of currency units.
The last long term bull went from 600 (Dow) to 11,500. A gain of 2000%.
A similar move would put the Dow at 120,000. But let’s cut that in half just to be safe.
That is still 350%. Are you seriously going to tell me that the Dow couldn’t rise 350% over the next 3-5 years with every central bank printing 10’s of trillions of dollars?
350% X 5000 = 25,000 Nasdaq.
This is why the average investor can never make the big money, His time frame is way too short and his grasp of what a secular bull market can do is way to small.
Again this is nothing but a lie. I’ve been short SSO 3 times the past week and covered for 8% gain in my entire portfolio. That’s making money, not losing.
I’m short again 300% SSO as of yesterday’s close and I’ll be profiting again.
You sell newsletter with 0 financial consequences. This type of style is exactly why so many got into trouble in 2011-2013.
Talking to Steve Gary you have to use pictures, renumber your dealing with a child mentality…Numbers ( obviously ) are not his bigger suit, Mr 1.5% daily lol,…
Steve,
You are trying to pick a top in a strongly trending market. It won’t be long before you lose all of those small gains because the market will surprise to the upside and you will be leveraged 300% short.
How many times have you heard the phrase “Don’t fight the trend”.
Stevo! Your mum called.. She wants her Scooter back 🙂
Stevie netanderthal you are way behind in times, a time traveller you are…the time for being a doomer and gloomer was over a vey long time ago… Your TA and EWT is what you base your money on? What a joke!
EWT did not even work when it worked before! Let alone in the PPT markets we are in for teh past 7 years………..You need time to evolve yet, so stale ideas.
Neanderthal that is. eeeeeeeeeeek to ya!
And by the way thank you Gary I’ll try and lighten up in the rhetoric… Till morning
Good trades to all
I’m man enough to admit that I was skeptical of your biotech calls and all the LABU stuff. But damn, this looks like a sequel of the miners from a few months ago!
Thx for the chart, that says it all. Dang!
Here is another good way to profit from the PANAMA PANIC => http://www.bit.ly/1RYOCiw
I think people are getting ready for EARNINGS, which starts the 11th of APRIL, and that could bring a few surprises.
Obviously we have gone up harder than ever. We have not witnessed a rally this big since 1933, but as you know what goes up, will probably most likely come down. 😀
In EW terms it looks like Spx is losing steam, interesting day later today 🙂
Not on the the monthly, looks to me Gary’s break out call is coming
https://s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/snapshots/p/Pk5foEYb.png
Just keep trying to call a top. You may manage to miss the entire bubble phase if you try hard enough. 🙂
Nope, I am all in, in Gold&Silver miners most of the time (Sold Victoria Gold after an exponential upmove this week), thats were my passion is !
Waiting to pour Gold in Quebec 🙂 hopefully a very profitable trade !
Bought 500.000 shares in GBB.v last summer at 2c, sitting on 1million shares. Hopefully 50c before year end.
Nothing to do but sit on my hands. Looking at many charts in many different sector i should be doing nothing for quite some time. Good luck.
?
This year is the biggest opportunity of this decade. Oil, oil stocks, gold, gold miners, biotech- just a few.
You must have a very good job if you miss these moves. By Xmas A lot of Smartmoneytracker subscribers will reach the financial freedom.
Would you believe me if I told you that there are some Traders out there who are currently trying to ‘short’ Biotech?! Lol! That’s like stepping in front of a freight train — it’s f*cking suicidal 🙂 Please don’t do it.
People are fascinated with trying to pick tops. It’s like a moth to the flame.
We saw it with the rally in metals. Experienced traders that should have known better fought the trend all the way up.
And to date the short miners and metals types have made NOTHING as both have been in a chop phase… they might as well have given the money away lol
Gary, Nasdaq 20k is not even greedy. It is plain stupid. Look at 1970s and inflation there. Stocks went nowewhere nominal terms halved in real terms. So there was 6% day in biotech. Great. Be careful when crap rallies hard for it is normally the end of the move. USDJPY says and of carry trade. No growth. Only risks. And you proudly say Nasdaq 20k and absolutely breaking from 15 Yr high to the upside. Look at Nikkei and it’s long deflating bubble and be realistic.
In the early 70’s we had a gold standard, that was then this was now, tell us did they say the words Quantitative Easing in the 70’s as well? not that I can recall…times have changed in a big way and so has finance stop dwelling in the past.
“While the smart money was busy selling, Gary got you knuckleheads buying hand over heal. It’s going to be a painful 4-6 weeks ahead”
Stevie,
Us knuckleheads just made 22% yesterday in LABU 🙂
Respectfully Gary more like 118% lol…yes Im deep in the money lol
Gold doing exactly what I predicted it would do. Just churning back and forth chewing up bulls and bears alike. I’m still looking for a potential double top in the miners before a deeper correction into an ICL in May.
Gary, shall we keep LABU until May ?
Gary…Is LABU still a buy now?
See the second chart.
Hey Chris, Ralph ,Bill
Short taken at 2055 on WED….. 2 emini contracts as posted yesterday…..Also said will hold into Aoril 7
Not bad call for a day trade….would you agree…..
Hedged… long OIL….
Gary you are on fire lately. Pretty amazing. I think you may be missing the 2nd move that’s coming in the miners though by waiting for a pullback. I don’t think this bull wants to let anyone on. Some great gold historians on this site that have nailed it much like you but they believe there will be no opportunity to get in
https://goldtadise.com/?p=366090
https://goldtadise.com/?p=366076
I don’t buy 18 weeks into an intermediate rally. Seen this too many times. Still looking for a potential double top in miners to suck in the retail buyers and allow big money to unload more shares.
The dollar hasn’t even rallied yet. The dollar has a date with an intermediate cycle low and at least a 5-6 week rally. When that happens gold will deliver the move down into it’s ICL.
Just be patient.
Check out this pathetic article talk about misinformed…
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/dont-buy-into-biotechs-drug-dream-recovery-2016-04-07?link=MW_latest_news
A closely watched biotech play — the iShares biotech ETF IBB, -0.10% — has powered out of either a double-bottom base or an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern, depending on which chart lover you ask.
But iBankCoin blogger The Fly isn’t buying it — instead, he’s mocking biotech’s believers.
“If your desire is to live in Fantasy Land, what better place to be other than the biotech sector, an industry without fundamentals and the albatross of having to meet earnings expectations,” he says.
“This is the only sector that offers high returns, based on a drug dream similar to playing the lottery, that goes unrivaled in the market place,” he adds.
Other traders are buying, though. NorAm Asset Management’s Tim Reazor says his shop bought IBB on Tuesday, ahead of Wednesday’s 6% jump.
“Instead of getting into an argument on the fundamentals of the market [or] the global socioeconomic situation, I think if you focus on setups, it’s going to lead you to clearer thought,” Reazor says. “And that’s exactly what played out in this setup of IBB.”
Ibankcoin lol sure you do….
Actually the big biotech companies are growing earnings at an astounding rate.
And still over price. That’s why it has collapsed in price.
Over priced based on? your opinion? lets sees what you have. Price is WHAT someone is willing to pay not what your doomer pages say it is.
Stevie, this is a countertrend rally after a steep sell-off. Fundamentals don’t matter for the moment.
According to Gary’s opinion on energy and biotech sector, we should be long on IBB, XBI, LABU, ERX and IYE right ??? What is the chronological interval of keeping them ? I also know that 3x ETF’s are pretty dangerous…is that right ? How should someone deal with them ? Thank you in advance!
Hold these funds as per your greed level. Its that simple really, you either take the long bus or the short bus based on your greed its that simple really. As per Gary’s chart above, the weekly , were not even close to overbought, it may seem like a solid run because it ran up so fast the the truth is the rise is only six days young.
Stevie always takes the short bus. 🙂
If you bought LABU when we did you now have a big margin of safety and there is virtually no chance of having to take a loss.
If you sat on the sidelines and watched the move pass you by then it’s going to be tougher to enter and hold the trade.
This is why I keep telling people the time to buy is when you are scared.
Now we have a classic example of why I disagreed with Alex about when to buy. He said one needs to wait for confirmation. I said I want to buy at a cycle bottom so my stop is close.
So here we are. If you followed my strategy you are heavily into profits with a huge margin of safety.
If you used Alex’s strategy you now have confirmation but your stop is a long long ways away. You might buy today and then IBB pulls back 5%. You end up freaking out and selling, then it turns and goes higher.
This is how retail traders buy high and sell low. They trade with their emotions.
All eyes should be on silver.
Price is above a 10 month MA and BB are very tight.
http://tinyurl.com/jhncu6z
Some perspective….
1 trillion in shorts… Bullish
To few Bears…. Bearish
GDO now….Bearish
Earnings….. Bearish. Discounted
Overbought …. Bearish
Good article i read.
Traders Market……
Gary is so sharp!!
Opinions aside, technically IBB is still in a bear market.
Price is below a declining 10 month MA.
As we all know, bear market rallys are viscous.
http://tinyurl.com/zrnauxh
As you know I don’t wait for confirmation. By that time that happens you’ve already missed the move.
You don’t listen very well.
I didn’t say anything about confirmation. The title of your post is baby bull and my point is technically this is a bear market rally.
See you at $40 Mr Bear market
https://s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/snapshots/c/C6pIXwrE.png
There is no way to tell if this is a bear market rally????
Based on the 7 year cycle low having been completed (the Dow, midcaps and transports have all broken thire multi-year cycle downtrend line) this is a baby bull.
You don’t listen very well again.
The title of your post is baby bull biotech and my point is technically this is a bear market rally.
http://tinyurl.com/zrnauxh
Oh look. Market opening with a big gap down.
300% short SSO as noted yesterday.
A few more S&P points and you’ll break even, great job! Or you could’ve been on the right side of the trend and long 3x GDX and be up 6% vs your 3% this morning. haha
But Gary said to not be in miners…
Weren’t you paying attention?
You need to subscribe, if you have any money left.
Steve,
Some people are playing miners Old Turkey. Some are trading the intermediate cycles.
We made enough on the metals trade. Now I will wait for a clear move down into an ICL before I buy back in. I don’t care if miners make a marginal new high. I don’t even care if gold were to run to 1308. It will be given back during the ICL.
So I want to wait for the ICL before I go back in.
I like the way Steve adds in the 300% percent parts thats his way of trying to convince us he’s making bank lol
LMAO!!
🙂
I doubt any of you guys have the balls for you.
That’s why you subscribe to a 30 dollar a month guru who has lead a lot of people to the poor house in the past. You knuckleheads will be next.
Our balls are on your chin small fry how any of us spend OUR money is none of your business, not go buy a Big Mac with all that heavy coin your making ….
Oh c’mon billy balls.
I made a real time call yesterday and market open down -100…maybe if you listen you might learn a few things.
Former subscriber here that agrees with a lot of what you say. Realized that if I make my trades based on a newsletter I have no business trading at all. Not that Gary offers no value, but if you just follow him blindly it could end poorly. Do your own due diligence. Also, hats off on your recent trades. Anyone that says 8% in a week or two is not impressive is clueless. A couple percent a month over a long time period will make you Betty rich.
Very rich.
Way to go Gary! I never would have even known about Biotech…as I was just focused on the metals for so many years making every mistake in the book. Patience is key and I am appreciative that in your missives you reiterate that over and over for an impulsive person like me.
It’s looking like G-money might be correct again on the miners and they want to at least test the recent highs.
Shorts just got their faces ripped off lol
https://s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/snapshots/a/a32sT0be.png
YOU can say what you want Ralph, I called it in real Tiime, Down Into April 7, 2 emini at 2055…….
Long OIL as stated many,many times….
Be happy for all, were here to help, suggest, debate
Not insult….
This was a great trade !!
No offense, but I’m not paying attention. I’m not into paying brokers and market makers to only make a couple points here and there, or like Stevie, lose a few here and there so I can pat myself on the back on an anonymous forum.
I hear you there Ralph…sit tight be right…day trading is for small time chumps…there I said it.
My apologies, I just re-read what I wrote and it came off as rude. I don’t mean to be rude since you appear to be trying to help as well as being transparent around here, it’s just that we have two totally different trading styles and personalities. I’ve tried yours before and it didn’t work for me so I basically wasted a few years time before figuring out the game.
I know folks like you.
I’ve seen them in 2011-2013 playing leveraged miners following Gary’s suppose wisdom. They kept buying.. And then Gary even suggested buying make call options. Gary use to call folks out about market manipulation and at the end, Gary used the same manipulation talk to cover his 2 years of bad calls. Most went broke, that’s why Gary’s sub base took a big hit.
Today, the same thing is happening but this time it’s Biotech.
The dude sells newsletter with 0 financial consequences.
THEN WHY ARE YOU HERE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! you read like a Liberal Dope hypocrite..
Because I’m your Jesus.
Its confirmed your a nut job, Gary do us a favor and can this nut job will ya….better yet consider this my last posting in your direction Steve, ill just scroll past anything you offer.
Take care nut job
Short bus Stevie, I dont use 3x funds. Apparently you’re so nervous holding 300% short in a rising trend that it’s affecting your reading comprehension. That’s a sign to pull in a little, buddy.
I’m off to the gym, keeping paying your broker’s kids’ college tuition, I’m sure he loves you!
Stevie
I remember a guy named Steve that lost millions on the AGQ debacle.
Ru the same guy?
Joseph,
oil turning back up today?…..
In Nov of 2014, the S&P was at 2055.
Today it’s April 7, 2016 and S&P is 2055…
Again… Who’s fighting the trend here?
Stevie now you make sense, that’s not appreciated here 🙂
I think subscribers don’t understand why some come here just to try and throw us off a trend using bullshit stabs in the dark. Any idiot will be right for a day or two, but you dummies have missed doubling and tripling your accounts, all the while acting like you know better. I suppose that won’t make sense to you?
air leak
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=LNKD&p=W&st=2005-04-07&en=(today)&id=p17684785874
Tag team gold and biotech, interesting leadership.
Owned SA since 7 now almost a double. Buy and hold a must own miner, a new leader in the PM sector. Reminds me of Allied Nevada years ago from 2 to 38. Thought about taking it out a couple of times then but the chart and keeps saying NO!
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SA&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p96357001918
Gary I saw that China had increased its Gold reserves today. Further there are changes announced on the London Bullion market for gold urging greater transparency
Further in mid April Shanghai is also becoming a price setter for Asian gold bullion trading. From all these are they bad development for Gold or is it time to look from a macro perspective of what’s taking place in both London n China
Small time. LOL
Yes, when it comes to property, I am really small, I do admit…. Trading, even smaller…..just want my piece and happy family
However, I own 2. 100 unit APT Buildings…..
Come by in Toronto, will have a nice Italian meal, my home made Dads wine and we can go by Apartments…..
Retired at 40 as a Senior EnG from biggest Telecom Cmpy in Canada….. Was a Cisco CCIE as well…..
DONT GET ALL sour, BE Humble, just sticking up for Steve
Was funny as well, called a chump, your old school
I only day trade when time permits and only go in when I’m sure, or as best as I can determine….
Gary,
Why can you share with us why you show stochastics on the second chart and omit it on the first?
Sorry, Should say…can you share with us why you show sto
Steve, cover shorts into noon time
OIL will stay depressed today
That’s what I’m doing
It broke 2042 emi I so this is good for short but could be a trap….
Out with 14 emini pts on 2/contracts
Badabing bada boom
Something I haven’t seen mentioned yet (maybe it has – but I can’t read every post here) is the US Dollar just technically moved into a confirmed “Death Cross” the other day … this may be forecasting major implications for the Dollar and US priced commodities over the next several months …
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p74701271152
Gary, biotech was just oversold. True bull market rally was in miners. These two bottoming processes were distinctively different. Bio is just fantasy land. Good buy in 2009, good sell in 2015. Best market rallies? Oh yes we all know them too well.
Gold miners are in a countertrend as well, same as oil, stocks and EUR. Will end in a few weeks.
sold LABU at 37.7 this morning and bought back in at 34.7 🙂 so far so good
Gold&Silver looking strong, a breakout move on Wednesday?
Kinross already breaking out from the crowd;
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=KGC
I’m not in Kinross, but loving those moving averages suggesting rocket ship action!
Kinross is currently the 3rd most shorted stock on the TSX …
http://www.tmxmoney.com/en/research/short_positions.html
And GDXJ looks like it’s trying to make new bull market highs.
http://schrts.co/JLTs86
Stevie you poor Neanderthal you are way behind in times, a time traveller you are…the time for being a doomer and gloomer was over a vey long time ago… Your TA and EWT is what you base your money on? What a joke!
EWT did not even work when it worked before! Let alone in the PPT markets we are in for teh past 7 years………..You need time to evolve yet, so stale ideas, now walk up straight hunch back.