1. Gary Post author

    A common mistake most traders make is to let recency bias push them back into a market too soon after its already made a big move. Big trending moves need time to consolidate or correct before the next leg up or down can begin. Gold and especially miners and silver delivered exceptionally strong trending moves during the baby bull phase. Have the patience to let that cool off for awhile before jumping back into these markets.

    1. Gary Post author

      The trending move right now is going to be in biotech & energy. Play those sectors for the next month or two and let the metals cool down.

      1. Anthonyo

        I was reading Friday night futures on Marketwatch , but now Sunday night Futures are open.

  2. bill

    Thank for the update Gary and great job on fixing the volume on these releases loud and clear now.

  3. Vortex


    I think your short-term cautious stance on gold is probably a good call, but I don’t think any really seasoned resource investors are going to get fooled into dumping high quality miners on a small gold/silver pullback and I also don’t think to a large degree that prospective buyers are going to get much lower prices on the miners/explorers than they are getting today.

    Folks for the most part have taken positions that they will likely classify as long-term holds and will simply add to those positions on any weakness.

    Most of the mining stocks have very limited downside with enormous upside. Trading out of, or losing a position in some of the good names is almost pointless because reentry prices are not going be as low as most folks think. Sure you may be able to scalp a few penny’s here and there but the big down-drafts in most high quality miners are very likely in our rear view mirror not ahead of us.

    Just my 2 cents.

    1. Gary Post author

      Historically miners will retrace 50% of the rally out of a bear market bottom. If we assume the top has occurred then that would suggest GDX will drop back to $18 before the next leg up can begin.

      This is just about what happened as miners came out of the 2008 bear market bottom. They rallied roughly 100% (about the same as this time) and then corrected almost 50%.

      1. mike trike

        “high quality miners” isn’t the same as GDX or GDXJ which contain overpriced, high market cap companies.

  4. vespij

    Gary, “mini analysis” lol. That made my day. Can’t wait to deploy the 3x oil, bio troups into gold 3x on ur word in a month or two. Ur the best.

  5. Joseph

    A Tulip….. Last THUR and FRI went short and also said short this early week as a few things didn’t add up incld OIL under 43.75…… Well shorts payed off very very well today via emini…..
    I didnt say crash… But a at least a small pull bk….

    Anyhow, it payed off

  6. Steffmeister

    I think SPX will drop hard going into May ! B-waves are very moody, but I think we will see a top soon or maybe it’s already in.

    I am studying EW and it’s a lot of fun 🙂

    1. Gary Post author

      No intermediate cycle has ever topped with the ROBO ratio so heavily skewed toward put buying by small investors.

    1. Duuuuuude

      I work within the ag industry. For what it is worth I would stay away, allow price to settle back to where it was in early April, then perhaps enter in June and ride a weather rally. Agriculture, like all other commodities want to go higher, but the fundamentals are horrible. I think traders will use the excuse of weather problems to create a large rally then, but for now I would stay away.

  7. chrisG

    Gary, u said that stocks COT is not bearish. But on the contrary, Clive Maund just said that Commercial went even more short last week. He said smart money is now bearish, dumb money has now turned bullish. Why this huge disparity against yours? Tks

    1. Gary Post author

      He’s wrong. Unless he’s talking about the metal COT’s. If that’s the case then yes the commercials are extremely beaish.

  8. Ralph Wiederzane

    Cliven Mound also told us to sell gold and miners a long time ago and before the great gains were made. I sometimes read what he writes, but will never make any decisions on his analysis since he compares the markets to a skateboarder which is less than useless, in my opinion.

  9. chrisG

    Gary, I guess he is wrong , interpreted the cot of stocks wrongly. He is bearish on PMs, and now very bearish on stocks too.

    1. victor

      I even deleted his link from favorites…, reading such biases make influence on your decisions you want it or not…, can’t imagine how mad his subscribers, if any, been last couple month…, grumpy permabear…

        1. Ralph Wiederzane

          He totally missed the single best rally I’ve seen in my lifetime, while Gary spanked it outta the park.

  10. Gary Post author

    Here is the cot analysis I did a couple of weeks ago. Not much has changed.

    The ROBO ratio hasn’t improved at all since writing that article, and no intermediate cycle in history has ever topped with retail traders so bearish.

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