Gold is definitely in a new bull market.

From time to time I have to respond to something I hear or read over at the Kereport. Since Al has blocked me from posting I have to respond here on the blog.

Today I want to address the nonsense by Birdman that the technicals are indicating that gold is still in a bear market. Nothing could be further from the truth.

First let me dispel the idea that somehow the mining stocks haven’t broken out of their bear market down trend. Not only has the HUI broken the long term down trend…

new bull market

But the miners have also rallied above two previous intermediate cycle tops and tested last years yearly cycle high.

new bull market miners

So for the first time in 4 years the miners are making higher highs. This is the very definition of a new bull market.

That’s the technical picture. Now let me go into the other signals confirming that the bear market is over.

7 weeks ago the COT for gold (and silver) reached levels that would be considered bearish, and during a bear market would have immediately turned price back down. Every analyst I know of started calling for an imminent collapse in the metals back below $1000 (Birdman included). At the time I pointed out that during bull markets the COT can reach bearish levels but price will remain elevated for many weeks and even continue higher. As we now know I was correct and gold just continued to rally and has held onto most of its gains for 7 weeks despite bearish COT levels, just like I suggested was going to happen.

During a bear market sentiment rarely goes much above 50% bulls before price rolls over and starts the next leg down. During the last 3 1/2 months sentiment in gold rallied above 65% and more importantly has held above 50% for a month and a half. That is bull market behavior.

This is the problem with being closed minded. You can’t recognize what is happening, you are driven by your bias. There is one reason and one reason only why gold generated a massive bear market. The Fed needed to do QE3 and keep the stock market inflated. They didn’t however want that liquidity to flow into the commodity markets, spike inflation, and destroy the global economy like it did in 2008. The easiest way to prevent that was to set aside the laws governing the futures market and attack gold with paper shorts creating a bear market. If gold was collapsing the rest of the commodity market would at least remain in check. It worked.

But by the fall of last year the energy industry was in trouble and on the verge of triggering another financial crisis as many overleveraged energy companies were on the verge of going under. The Fed desperately needed some commodity inflation. The simple solution was to stop the price suppression in the metals and allow the natural bull forces to regain control. That would tend to put a bid under the rest of the commodity markets.

Again it worked perfectly. Gold resumed its natural bull market trend, and oil bottomed not long after and has rallied 60%.

These people say that price manipulation is an excuse. Folks, once I recognized the manipulation and why it was happening my trading results improved dramatically. Recognizing that manipulation was occurring allowed me to alter my trading strategies and profit, not use it as an excuse to fail.

Now this same inability to recognize that the manipulation has ended is causing many of the bears to miss the new bull market.

How long will it be I wonder before Birdman blames manipulation as the reason he missed the bull market in gold 🙂

Yes gold is due for a multi-week correction, but it is not going back below $1045, and I even have my doubts that gold will drop back below the 200 DMA.

new bull market gold

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  1. muskie032

    Gary if gold possibly goes sideways for the 200dma to catch up, would the commercials start to cover and reduce their position in this scenario? Or is it possible that we can hold the 0 blees and still have a ICL. If we went sideways I doubt the miners would correct at all or the sentiment reading. The other thing is if the USD is just doing a dead cat bounce as it looks like it could have failed at it’s 20ema we could be on our way to 84 on the dollar and fairly soon. It seems that’s what the fed wants to do is have the dollar crash to save china.

    1. Gary Post author

      The dollar is way overdue for an intermediate degree rally and completed a bullish engulfing candle on the weekly chart this week.

      1. muskie032

        Yes usd at the lower end of the channel and oversold but if it doesn’t rally this week it will crash. Markets crash when they are oversold. Seems to me this is what the fed wants to save china and oil. A crashing usd will drive up oil and save alot of defaults in that sector that could cause the broader market to crash. A lower yuan pegged to the usd will drive growth in china and save them from crashing into the abyss.

      2. ras

        Hi, Gary, What is your target for pull back in silver? Silver is reluctant to follow gold’s decline to the same degree!

  2. muskie032

    Just 1 more question. This China gold exchange that’s going to start up on April 19th will this have any effect on the gold price?
    Thanks Really appreciate your insights and work.

    1. Gary Post author

      I don’t know if it will have any effect or not, but I think the price suppression has already come to an end so it probably doesn’t really matter at this point.

  3. beartrap

    Let them short it.
    With the perma bears shorts the rally will be stronger.
    If everyone is long we just get the central banks money.
    I want the perma bears’ money too.

  4. Anthonyo

    Gold I scold as it’s not acting as it’s told;
    the correction must unfold before we all get very old!
    As the man foretold, this thing is going to fold, into May/June we are told. 🙂

    1. Gary Post author

      I’ve wondered that myself. For two years Al let the trolls take shots at me. They weren’t even required to post the truth. They could just make up shit they said I said. Yet when I start defending my positions agains that nitwit Gilbert Al bans me.

      Hell if it wasn’t for me Al would have lost money on his puts during the Aug drop. I got him out at the exact bottom with a very nice profit. You would think that at least would be worth letting me post comments.

      1. BeachandBiscuits

        Hi Gary

        I don’t know the back story, obviously, but based on what I saw and some of Al’s comments, I think when you abruptly stopped doing interviews with the KEReport, without notice (that’s their side), it created hard feelings with Al, etc.

        I first saw that you were stopping regular interviews there when you commented about it here. I asked the KEReport and Al’s response was that they didn’t know you had decided to stop.

        Again, there are two sides to the coin and I don’t know all the details of what’s real vs. perceived, but this is just my $.02 on what I saw and the comments I’ve seen from them.

        1. Gary Post author

          I told Cory that I was willing to come on sporadically, maybe once or twice a month and still do the interviews. I even did a last interview with him where I made the comment that it was a good time to buy and hold gold and miners. How prophetic was that? Especially since all the other analysts were still looking for gold to go below $1000 at the time.

          I made it clear to both Al and Cory numerous times that I was getting sick and tired of the trolls. When I’d finally had enough I made the decision to step away.I don’t see why that would be a reason to shut me out from commenting. Heck I’m the only one who understands what is happening in the markets. My comments are valuable to people who actually want to make money. All he’s done is lose a valuable resource and the only person who understands cycle analysis and why and when market interventions are occurring.

          Everyone else is still operating under the delusion that we have free markets and that’s why they continually get their calls wrong.

          1. BeachandBiscuits

            Thanks for clarifying things from your side Gary. I wish it hadn’t played out the way it did, because I really valued your commentary on the KEReport. I think they’ve lost a huge resource and valuable perspective by not having you on.

            Glad I subscribed to your Premium service though 🙂

          2. Ray_B

            Gary was the only reason I went to Al’s site in the past … the others don’t compare to Gary if you ask me … their loss!

  5. victor

    ” May/June we are told. ” … Friday price action make me nervous, silver miners I sold on Wednesday went even higher despite gold went down…, with all that bullishness I’m intended to buy back when gold come to 1206 …, unless Gary say wait …

  6. Robert


    If gold is going to catch up to 200MA and fall from here, what are your price targets for gold and miners? I think 1205 and GDX 19.

  7. Jack of Spades

    (Sorry, posted on the wrong thread)

    Long time fan, first time poster. Love your cycles work, Gary. Just have a quick observation to share. Your HUI chart clearly shows a long-term breakout, but if you switch the chart to a log chart – showing percentage moves instead of absolute values – a long-term bullish breakout is still a ways off.

    On a different note, do you think it will be possible for the IC to invert? And if you do, what would be the signs to look out for?

    Thanks for all your awesome info.

      1. Jack of Spades

        Invert, instead of going down into ICL we continue to move up and instead make new highs?

  8. Joseph

    For those Canadians on this site and want to be a part of the GOLD & SILVER Case Action Law suit; contact the Lawyer firm in the article below. My brother and I did last Friday and have an appointment next week to be added to the case action law suit. You require proof that you had and lost monies via a ETF, Mutual fund, stock, emini contract, Physical etc….

    1. victor

      Joseph, what firm did you contact? are there possible expenses? please give some more details on it if possible, thanks

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