STOCK MARKET CYCLE LOW IS NEARING

market cycle low

The stock market cycle low is nearing.

The market is already close to oversold levels capable of forming the cycle low. If the S&P doesn’t drop more than 60 points before bottoming then the runaway move will be confirmed.

One or two more down days and the RSI (5) will reach oversold levels.

The McClellen oscillator is already at oversold levels capable of forming a daily cycle low.

And, oil may have completed its cycle low today. When oil starts back up that will be a positive for the stock market.

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182 thoughts on “STOCK MARKET CYCLE LOW IS NEARING

  1. Ron

    Would appreciate a little clarification…If this does become a “runaway” move…what length of time are we talking? Up until the historical “Sell in May and Go Away” period which isn’t far off.. or much longer? What happens in the scary Oct period if it is a runaway move? Are we talking 1550 on the S&P etc.? I seem to recall various statements and time periods up to 2 yrs but not sure…Sorry for the naivete but I do my best.
    Thank you for everything you do.

    1. Gary Post author

      There is no telling how long a runaway move can last. Cycles become worthless in a runaway move. The one in 2006-07 lasted 8 months. Then when it crashed it lost 4 months worth of gains in a couple of days.

      That’s the problem with runaways. Everyone becomes complacent so when they end everyone tries to get out the door at the same time and you get some kind of crash or semi crash event.

      I’ve given up on testing 1600. The 7 year cycle low is almost certainly over and got cut a little short in February when the PPT stepped in to halt the sell off and prevent the market from breaking that critical support at 1800.

  2. Gary Post author

    The current excuse the bears are now using for why stocks will head back down is that the Nikkei is nearing 52 week lows. One can come up with reasons for why this should pull the US markets down, but like most of this kind of analysis history shows that the exact opposite happens. Since 1970 every time the Nikkei has fallen near a 52 week low while the S&P was near a 52 week high it has been a positive for stocks 100% of the time. On average one month later the S&P was up almost 2%. 3 months later it was up an average of 6%, and one year later an average of 12%.

    Folks the Nikkei just does its own thing and has never shown any predictive ability to forecast weakness in the US market. On the contrary by the time the Nikkei gets this oversold most of the selling pressure has already been expended.

    I keep saying the Nikkei is simply driven by the yen, and the COT is showing one of the heaviest commercial short positions in awhile in the yen. When the yen starts back down into its ICL then the Nikkei will head back up.

    Source: sentimentrader.com

    1. Duncan Smith

      Oil seems to be the driving force. Oil down markets down and vice versa. The supply glut hasn’t disappeared , if the “deal” goes through oil should rise to $50 and take the markets with it. Otherwise we could be in a for a fall. Don’t forget oil double bottomed a year ago only to tank again, check the charts!!

      1. Gary Post author

        Yes but now it’s even later in the 3 year cycle so the odds are much slimmer that we get another lower low. I’m about 90% convinced oil has bottomed.

  3. Mogonzo64

    Gary,
    I jumped back into LABU last Friday also. I seriously thought about waiting for Oil’s DCL to finish before getting back in. But Amazingly, Bio has looked pretty resilient and is holding up well quite well despite the markets direction. As you said, huge accumulation at any signs of price weakness. It doesn’t look like Biotech is getting affected in any adverse way by either an Oil DCL or a possible SM correction. I Will gut it out, holding onto my bio shares even if the tree gets shaken in the next 2 days. But I don’t think it will drop at all. I doubt that Bio hardly pulls back and wouldn’t be surprised if it keeps climbing higher as smart money keeps accumulating shares. Great call to jump back in before the train leaves the station. Looking to get back into Oil stocks in the next day or two. Great call on the current Oil DCL as well….

  4. Mogonzo64

    Maybe Runaway will be confirmed tomorrow. Asian markets look positive and US Futures all showing Huge Up day tomorrow. Even WTIC Oil price is Up over 2 % at this time now. Maybe Oil’s DCL is finished as well… Runaway starting tomorrow??

  5. Dan

    Alright Savage.

    If the market makes new all time highs with volume, I’ll chase right along with your bubble phase. The SPY is so close to ATH, no one has to miss it.

    Until then, it’s a bear market until proven otherwise. Your lecturing and table pounding mean nothing.

    VIX and UVXY looking strong.

    1. Gary Post author

      It was never a bear market. Neither the Dow, S&P or the Nasdaq dropped 20%. This has always just been a correction.

    2. Herman

      Dan, we are getting very close. One hallelujah leg-up, then countertrends in gold, oil and stocks are finished, and we will start busting. But still, good money can be made during these countertrends. Gary made an excellent call in the miners, and also biotech.

  6. Mogonzo64

    Is that the sizzle and smell of burning Shorts? Maybe “Da Bears” will be tripping over themselves to cover and run for the exits tomorrow. Bull Trap in the making? Wouldn’t sleep too well tonight if Shorting market and was foolishly expecting the DCL selloff to continue…. Another fake out? Lol…

  7. jacob 2

    Are people rationale. No. Can a logical argument change there mind. No. People do what they’re going to do. It’s not about the money it’s about being right. Yes.

  8. david

    OIL rising after markets, as the API report, out today at 5 PM shows that crud inventory’s are finally DOWN by 4.2 million barrels, against expectations of a rise of 2.4 million barrels. this is a game changer for OIL,
    Tomorrow 10:30 AM is out the government official inventory numbers, it will probably show the same.
    Good look for all longs here, its also pulling the SM futures higher.

  9. Van

    How can any technical indicator be oversold after a 1 day correction? You have called the market very well Gary, but I maintain that the US is completely detatched from the rest of the world aS global markets continue to sink, and this divergence will eventually be resolved.

    1. Gary Post author

      It looks to me like all global markets have bottomed. Some are rallying faster than others but all appear to have completed the 7 YCL.

    1. Gary Post author

      You love to exaggerate πŸ™‚

      No sooner did you start calling for $500 gold than it formed the final bear market bottom.

      1. Stefan

        Show me where I called for $500 Gold!? You are mistaken me for somebody else.

        Slightly sub 1000 yes in a couple of years 500 no!

        1. Gary Post author

          You posted this back in January:

          “The bull was broken in 2011. We are in a 7-8 year bear now and we are only 60% through. Then a 4-5 year bull with new ATH.”

          Posted back in January.

          The whole way up you kept trying to call tops claiming this was a bear market rally.

          1. Stefan

            Yes I recognize those first lines πŸ™‚ and I still think it will act in that way, but calling tops?

            Yes we are still in a bear market for gold so this is a BEAR RALLY, but in between we will have a spectacular run to 1450, I am waiting for that !

            As I stated yesterday I own small juniors at the moment.

            Sold Victoria Gold yesterday though.

        2. Herman

          I am the one calling for 500 gold πŸ™‚ After the last leg up in this countertrend, which seems to have begun. Gold has the possibility to shoot to 1400/oz in this final leg up,

          BTW: still riding oil, EUR and LABU. I will exit oil around 46/barrel, EUR/USD around 1,20 and LABU no later than EUR.

          Yes, this is still a bear market rally.

  10. Stefan

    Oh, on another note, there is an esoteric trendline in Spx from the bull in 1987, a very gentle upsloaping trendline, that sits at 2140ish and it has NEVER BEEN BROKEN including adjustment for inflation and QE !!!

    Last summer it was at 2130, it was an easy shorting case to collect as many short contracts as possible the whole summer just waiting for the big drop and the big drop arrived in August.

    Peter Eliades talks about the trendline in an interview from last summer. Maybe, just maybe QE4 will break the trendline, but the FED has not announced that yet.

    Be careful out there !

    1. Gary Post author

      I think I can say with a great deal of confidence they will never announce QE again. They will just do it. If the dollar continues to roll over after a brief bounce out of an intermediate low then we will have confirmation that QE4 has already begun.

  11. Joseph

    Presidential election years, 2nd term PREZ, seasonal trend over 85 years of data Blue Chip stocks over a period of 7 weeks 70% of time Had Looses And then rebounded Hard UP into late MAY-JUNE . This info from a site that focus only on seasonal trading . What’s cool is they had a chart over 85 Yrs and you see all 3 charted being AVG, Election YR and 2nd Term PREZ

  12. Walt

    The US dollar finally getting its act together.
    Still short s&p . Will enter IBB after this move down is done . I think we retest the s&p highs after this April move down completes .

    1. Alexandru Popovici

      well done!
      agreed on the USX move & on a higher DCH in stocks to come after a DCL today or tomorrow

      1. Bill

        Is this another one of those USD to 120 ad nauseam calls? The dollar always pop’s on any given FED related news I certainly would not bet the farm on anything today…

        1. Herman

          has nothing to do with the FED today. EUR/USD is in a countertrend rally, that will take it to 1,20-1,22.

    2. Alexandru Popovici

      …as to IBB…I do not understand why there is so much fuss on this forum on XBI/IBB/LABU – a sector which has obviously lagged the market regardless by what index you look at it.

      I think it is more opportunistic to the foam/cream of many opportunties while they are already trending strongly rather than TRADING ON ANTICIPATION OF FUTURE STRENGTH.
      Of course, trading anticipation and waiting for the thing to occur is more orgasmic – it satisfies vanity: “look how good I am! I anticipated strength half a year ago and here it is now.”

      1. Bill

        Im up over 200% playing LABU since it was first mentioned, Ya I can see how its lagging lol

      2. Gary Post author

        Here is the problem. One can never know when something is going to trend or when a trend is going to end. So to say one will wait until a trend develops is nonsense.

        If you really want to catch a trend you have to get in early and get a margin of safety in order to ride the trend.

        I have to laugh when I hear people make statements like that. If it was that easy everyone would be rich. Gold just had a monster trend and almost no one caught it.

        So much for waiting for a trend.

    3. Gary Post author

      I noted on the Kereport that Doc was the perfect contrarian signal for the dollar. He got the exact bottom of the intermediate cycle…although he was calling for lower lows based on his charts.

      Like I keep saying charts never catch these intermediate turning points.

      I started a long dollar position on the jobs number. That was the most likely trigger for the bottom to form.

  13. Alexandru Popovici

    …the rise of stocks towards a higher DCH (to finish the bull trap) will come in the whereabouts of a DCL in treasuries –> there I’ll rebuy TMF.

  14. Stevie

    Gary,
    For a guy claiming technical analysis is useless, you use it quite a bit and actually believe that these indicators are useful.
    You’ve warned folks in the past about breakout/fake outs. Take a look at the DOW. Classic break out above a key trend line and then got reversed. If we start to move down and pick up steam, would you consider that maybe we might still be in a bear market.

    1. Gary Post author

      Again we have never been in a bear market. The Dow, SPX and Nasdaq all never even corrected 20%.

      You do realize I’m using many many more tools than just the chart pattern, which is all the bears are using to call a bear market.

      The COT’s are not confirming a bear.
      Sentiment is not confirming a bear.
      Cycles are not confirming a bear.
      Even the economy is not confirming a recession (and we would need a recession to have a bear market).
      The ad line is not confirming a bear.
      The monthly charts are not confirming a bear.

    1. Bill

      Gold is down $13 bucks should I head to the window now or wait? and no I did not buy gold, I always own gold.

      1. Gary Post author

        Just be patient with gold it’s going to be a very erratic ride down to the ICL, but it still has several weeks to go. The dollar has to produce an intermediate degree rally first.

    2. Herman

      EUR/USD is preparing to break through 1,14, and then it could rally to 1,17 very fast. The move to finally 1,20 could propel gold to 1400/oz, the final top in this bear market rally. After that, the bust and 500/oz is waiting for us.

      BTW: I am stil riding EUR, oil and LABU up, during this very profitable countertrend rally.

  15. Walt

    Alex , I think ibb will do well , into 2017 .
    I’m not in the stock market goes into bubble though , like Gary and others here .
    Ibb is oversold , and a good sector into the future .
    I think markets go sideways + – 10%
    Into the end of 2017 . Then the 2-3 yr bear starts . It will be pretty bad I think .

  16. Bill

    As Gary would say its days like this that Gold / Dollar bulls and bears both get taken to the cleaners, this is why its best to remain neutral on any FED days, WAY!!! to many emotional lurkers here…way to many and this is why you lose money.

    1. Gary Post author

      The intermediate cycle and 7 year cycle has bottomed. Stocks are overdue for a minor daily cycle low though. Once that has run it’s course then we will test the all-time highs by May.

  17. Alexandru Popovici

    Walt, yes, agreed, the bubble idea is out of the context indeed [for now].
    I would not bet on the churn thought, though, for an extended period because of the character of the market so far and because of the QE world which renders the market more prone to trending on high volatility:
    – strongly upwards since mid 2012 til Sep2014
    – strong and swift YC decline in Oct 2014
    – strong uptrend into the end year 2014
    – exceptional churn for half a year into mid 2015 due to traders post-QE confusion (“is FED gonna print more or not?!!” was everybody’s question)
    – then trending swings : down into AUG2015, up into Oct, then down again and now up.

    I also expect large trends:
    – the down movement to resume quickly o new lows due to Japan and to a strong US labor market (food for rate hike expectations, hence a lid on stock prices) and
    – then the FED will be expected to ease back its monetary policy leaving room for strong uptrend into a new multi-year cycle for stocks.

    1. Gary Post author

      I noted above how the concept of Japan leading US markets is actually the opposite. Since 1970 this setup has led to strongly higher US markets 17 out of 17 times.

  18. Joseph

    Watching g SnP emini if it breaks 2035-2030 then 2012-2010, …..
    I think today is sideways, THUR Aprill 7 down….

  19. Gary Post author

    Biotech bucking the DCL nicely. This is very good news for stocks. The speculative driver of the bull is getting back in gear. Once the S&P completes it’s DCL then it will follow biotech higher and test the all-time highs by May.

    1. david

      Gary,

      Is it a possibility DCL completes today? helped by OIL, LABU, and the fed minutes.

  20. Enoch

    I guess Gamble isnt getting his 25-27 LABU entry any time soon he will be in the same camp as those who missed the miners and waiting for a pullback…which may never come

    1. Gary Post author

      It’s dangerous to miss the train on any baby bull, whether it be miners or biotech.

    2. Herman

      the pull back in miners will come, and it will be memorized for a long time, don’t worry. But not yet. LABU is on fire, very powerful move up. I bought it during the swing low at 22.04, and still holding. Was tempted a bit to exit around 33, but did not bite.

      1. Herman

        who said something about time decay? It moves up so fast that time decay is not an issue.

  21. Gary Post author

    Tell me again how that huge surge in volume in LABU was not predictive for a bottom forming….

    1. Alexandru Popovici

      even if the bottom call was right, the point is making money at very low risk and getting a bottom does not guarantee that.

      one may call a bottom right and still expose his portfolio to an overal reward/risk ratio lower than another trader who buys STRONG MOMENTUM driven by a PROVEN [not anticipated] TREND at a level which is …+100% or even +200% from a major bottom !

      As I said, getting a bottom is orgasmic but not the optimal trading strategy.
      As Mark Minervini said: who makes more money: the Ferrari salesman or the chewing-gum seller? In trading usually it is the latter, the trader who chews the low-risk meat in between of many opportunities and not the one hunting trades with mamoth returns by bottom fishing.

      1. Enoch

        not disagreeing with you but the reward side is huge, look at the 08 sell off, if one buys at the bottom, the gains are staggering. the thing about bottoms are either you are wrong or you are right. if you are right, you win big, if you are wrong, well you could lose big but at the same time, because it is already near a bottom, the breakdown usually comes back and retest the previous support which gives you an exit. I can see why Gary continues to hold ERX considering being in on too early. So this strategy isnt really impossible to fathom. at the end, what ever floats your boat mate. as long as one is making money

      2. Gary Post author

        I strongly disagree. Getting in at a cycle low allows you to place your stop very close to your entry.

        If you wait till your emotions allow you to enter then that’s the same time everyone elses emotions are saying the same thing and that’s when you get a short or intermediate top. At that point your stop is a long ways away.

        Any stop other than a cycle low is mostly just a guarantee you will lose money as the computers can pick off virtually all stops other than a cycle low.

      3. MuffinTop

        This is what a Stubborn man sounds like.. And this one (no matter what) is always right.. even when he’s wrong, Lol

        β€” Ego πŸ™‚

  22. Joseph

    Emini snp bounced off 2035, need it to break 2030… To go short for a safer day trade for me…..

  23. Stevie

    Before you make a call about runaway, how bout waiting to see if it can even take out the ATH.

    Transport in free fall.

    1. Gary Post author

      We don’t have confirmation of a runaway yet. The DCL would have to drop 60 points or less and then make another higher high. If that happens then I would be willing to call the runaway move in progress.

      1. Enoch

        Gary

        didnt you say it was in a runaway market last week? or it was suggestive and now you are waiting for confirmation

  24. MuffinTop

    LABU β€” Amazing how some of you are/were still sitting on the sidelines despite all the information provided on this opportunity.

    Stubborness + pride will not make you money folks πŸ™‚ Just sayin’..!

  25. Ryan Walker

    I’m just not seeing the long awaited selloff in the high quality miners like everyone thought. Maybe it’s still early, but I’m seeing the price rise everyday in a few that I have my sights on (Mexus, Minco Silver, & THM). Should I just pull the trigger?

  26. Gary Post author

    I’ll say this one last time. The size of the bottoming pattern is large enough that the rally in biotech should last at least two months. It’s still early and definitely not too late to get in. Don’t let this one runaway from you like the miners did.

    Get in and sit still. Don’t fool with this baby bull either. It’s no different than the baby bull in miners.

    Alright I’m off to go climbing.

    1. RickyBobby

      Look out below – world markets rolling over and will take US markets down with them. S&P 1600 here we come. With all due respect, thus runaway move thing is ridiculous nonsense that you hear on CNBC.

  27. Chris

    I am so happy to see many bears here. My cost is much lower, and with every day, weeks of rally, my trailing take profit level kept on getting higher, and my profits too. All these bears, kept talking, meagre gains if any. Shiok!!!

  28. Chris

    Armstrong latest tout is out. Says if clear 3rd weekly key level, may test all time high. But no breakout. Breakout could only happen in first quarter of 2017. Lets see

  29. Stefan

    meeehh I will skip Biotech! I am waiting for a permission to pour Gold in Quebec.

    GOLD BULLION DEVELOPMENT up 500% since last summer, another 500% the next 6months?

    waiting for the merger in KOOTENAY SILVER, ready to explode to the upside if silver price cooperates in the nextcoming months.

    Sold Victoria Gold yesterday, a beautiful five wave up, waiting for a correction.

    … and so forth …

  30. Stefan

    BILL you are not coming forward as very intelligent human being.
    Always aggressive, this I didn’t miss, you are an idiot !

    1. BILL

      Yes thats my style Dope, aggressive, don’t like it go back to boys town where you belong…

  31. Stefan

    Talking about hometown, seen the movie KILL BILL. You are Daryl Hannah and I am Uma Thurman, her grandma was from Trelleborg, my hometown. Soon you will lose an eye, Daryl …

    1. BILL

      β€œThere’s none so blind as those who will not listen.”
      ― Neil Gaiman, American Gods

  32. Stefan

    Talking about labu-Bill, there is a Swedish saying, even a blind hen can find a grain of gold

    1. BILL

      Next resistance zone $37

      https://s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/snapshots/h/HWhtAJdE.png

      Ill refrain from the name calling, no need to belittle ourselves. Yes I am the aggressive type, and I will not change..this is fight club I’m not here to read long winded affirmations about what a market should be doing based on emotions I followed the doomer crowd and lost thousands of dollars due to the world is coming to an end any day now or the great and coming crash….Im still waiting in the mean time Ill do the opposite of whatever you and all the other fuzzy eared types offer on this forum…the opposite always!…

      1. Stefan

        Finally an intelligent post, Ok I have another one but I will keep it for now. What good is coming out of it if everybody is yes sayers, we learn more with different views.

        I’m not DOOM, far from it, however we are entering a time with alot of turmoil. It is not black and white it’s 5millions shades of gray πŸ™‚

        My calls for a bear rally in gold, and a downsloaping trend for NIKKEI is purely based on tech.analysis with fibonacci ratios and EW.

        1. Anthonyo

          Fibonacci Schibonacci, TA, EWT, Jap Candle sticks Not wortha hell of beans in highly manipulative PPT-ridden markets. Especially EWT is a crock of sh..t. It enevr worked when it worked even. Bob Prechter is an idiot.

  33. Ralph Wiederzane

    Congrats to all the winners in the biotechs, great f’in trade!

    Unfortunately for Still-Watchin-Stevie, we’ve already made more today alone than he has made all year, AGAIN!!!! πŸ™‚

    1. Ralph Wiederzane

      If he’s even telling the truth when he says he is making chicken feed, which I personally don’t believe. Keep shorting, suckers!

    2. Stevie

      I covered yesterday as noted.
      Just shorted SSO again. 63.79.
      100%.

      Will add another 200% at the close.

          1. Ralph Wiederzane

            you shoulda bought LABU, or even ERX yesterday when you were whining to Gary, would’ve been up more than your entire year already.

  34. MBP3

    Well, I certainly chose the wrong time to jump off of the LABU train (yesterday). Looking to buy LABD puts now to take advantage of erosion and the strong move in Bio.

    1. BILL

      Careful M, every time we think erosion is coming this thing jumps another $3, don’t throw good money down a sewer.

  35. BILL

    Looks like the dollar bulls got caught off guard here…should be an interesting 2:00 o’clock..

    Until then…

  36. Stevie

    This market isn’t going anywhere without the banks and transport. Show me a bullmarket breakout without them and I can show you a market crash with transport and banks at new highs. Sh!t just doesn’t happen.

    1. Richard

      Stevie, look at the correlation between 10YRs and the financial index beginning at 12/2013 to current.
      We are testing the lows on interest rates and at a decision point.
      To me, it looks like the market was primed for rate increases and now the market has come to it’s senses and is reading through the FED b.s. Bonds failed at key level weeks ago. If the bond market fails here, we should be testing the 1.5% 10YR. Transports working like a charm. Bouncing off major support weeks ago and now failing the 50% retrace and testing 7700. Doesn’t look good to me.
      See Alex comments about lower rates. He was bullish bonds and got off for some reason I didn’t see recently and is now looking to go back in.
      So FEDs wanted two increases in 2015, they issued one. They called for four increases in 2016, haven’t done one yet and now are looking for two. Go figure. They still need to halt interest payments on excess reserves.

      1. david

        Is’t it remarkable the turn around from yesterday week performance?
        After the fed minutes is out, the party may even start a new phase, i’m not saying it will, but there is a good chance of it, the market may just start a runaway today,

  37. Joseph

    Guys..,.. Too many comments about bulls/bears, its about making $$$ and mitigating risk…
    I make $$$ both ways….
    It’s similar to folks saying renting Real-Estate Apartments is too much trouble…. LOL
    Too each his own,…
    This is a Tradable Market !!!
    There is NO Clear Trend !!!

    Cheers
    Joseph

  38. BILL

    Fed’s Loretta Mester speaks in Cleveland

    Fed policy isn’t behind the curve, waiting too long has risks
    Fed will still be accommodative for some time
    Underlying economic fundamentals remain sound
    It’s appropriate to gradually lower accommodation in 2016
    Sees low inflation in 2016 which will move to 2% over the next couple of years
    Economy to grow at 2.25-2.5% this year

    Nothing of any real note here.

    1. Stefan

      Bo Polny sharp??? He has made alot of very bad calls, 3 digit silver in 2016 …

      Why make such an unrealistic statement, that’s not very sharp.

      or you are being ironic …

      1. MuffinTop

        Stefan — first and foremost.. blow me πŸ™‚

        Just because he’s made some bad, or rather unrealistic calls, doesn’t mean the guy’s a total idiot, hence my use of the word ‘sharp’. I respect anyone that puts time and effort into their research.

        Also.. Did I say he was ‘bang on’? No, I didn’t. I just mentioned that he was offering a very interesting perspective, one that everyone should hear.. even if you don’t agree with it.

  39. Don

    I like this Stevie guy and his thinking. The NYA is not looking very healthy. I think the stock market is headed back down.

    1. Ralph Wiederzane

      Stevie=Don, nobody could be reading here and think Stevie knows which end is up.

  40. BILL

    Dollar longs take warning….

    Goldman Refuses To Stop Crushing Its FX Clients: “We Hold To Our Dollar Bullish Call”

    Goldman couldn’t call a bingo game….

  41. BILL

    FOMC saw global conditions posing risks to US Outlook
    Global economy, financial data are relevant for policy.
    FOMC noted, weak global growth could further boost US dollar
    MANYon FOMC saw bigger global risks warranting policy caution
    George said postponing rate hike could undermine Feds goals
    many on FOMC said prudent to wait before next tightening step

    1. BILL

      FOMC saw further strengthening of the labor market and housing.
      Fed. So economy expanding moderately despite global headwinds.
      Fed. So economy broadly in line with earlier expectations.
      Several on FOMC saw world disinflation as downside price risk.
      FOMC generally agreed US been resilient amid global events.
      A couple on FOMC saw quarter-point hike as appropriate in March

      1. BILL

        Several on FOMC argued against April high as some favored it
        Business investment seem likely to remain sluggish
        some policymakers saw firming trend inflation. Other views increase as unlikely to be sustained

        1. david

          TA of ZLTQ please.. If it breaks above 200 MA, which is almost here, where can be the short term top.. I would like to sell before the masses.. then waiting for consolidation, and buying back at lower prices.

  42. Duuuuuude

    A message for the folks who balk at being charged an extra $50 for a SMT Subscription…… Can you honestly look at any trade you have made and say you could be up 17-18% in one day? Would a $50 piece of that have mattered? The service he provides, as well as the Dr. Phil time he spends explaining traders emotions would be worth 5 times as much. I highly recommend SMT for any person who actively trades.

    1. Stevie

      Tell the folks that blew their accounts up in 2011-2013 with his constant gold picking bottoms.

      He sells a advice with no financial consequences. He doesn’t have to make a single trade because he’s making a living off of the sub.

      1. BILL

        Blew up their accounts?, on that allegation I want proof…Again small time with big words, I highly doubt this is a living $200 bucks a year? good lord your worse than a shoe shine boy pitching for quarters… Even! even if Gary had 100 subscribers that only $20k a year lol… haws that free Cave living there Stevie have the UFO’s from another plant come to take us over yet?

        You are without a doubt hilarious….so at least you have that going for ya..

      2. Duuuuuude

        You still must use proper position sizing…. invest only what you can afford to lose. I have heard Gary preach this over and over.

    2. doctorzais

      I agree. This was one of the best subscriptions I have ever purchased. I’ve already made 100 fold profit. Absolutely amazing!!

    3. klo

      Totally agree. He has been nailing it. Esp with the don’t get stopped out of biotech call.

    1. Ralph Wiederzane

      Speaking of blowing up accounts, don’t look now but you’re in the process. At least you’re trying for some transparency, it’s only fair if you’re going to hound Gary every day while never having any intent of paying for his services or even hopping on the same side. If you have such contempt, why spend so much time here? This site is for big winners, baby!

  43. El Lobo

    Short USO, DJP, GREK yet. USO at short term resistance. Should turn down soon if an intermediate top is in.

  44. El Lobo

    Seems like dollar’s next significant move will be up. Doesn’t look like it wants to go down anymore.

  45. Ralph Wiederzane

    Ouch! Gonna be a tough close for the bears. I hope they get smart and decide to take losses before the close because tomorrow is setting up for a “rip your face off” rally.

      1. Stevie

        Why once again?
        When was I crying last time billy?

        Waiting to add final 100% short on SSO.

        1. Bill

          Well doc I think this rallies all the way to 52 bio is so hot right now due to the PFE AGN deal falling through these companies have billions in that needs to be put to work who know what deals lurk behind the scene one big announcement and Labu could pop to 100

          1. doctorzais

            I actually panicked earlier and sold Labu early but I bought back in during the lunch hour when it closed slightly . I’m glad I did as the pullback I expected never happened and it was just a runaway train after that.

      1. david

        Bill,
        Some TA help on ZLTQ? where is the short term top, for a little consolidation?…. I hope you have the crystal..

        1. Bill

          I’m mobilie at the moment so i can’t post a chart but after a quick look that 52 week high is the goal earnings may 3rd …. My push it to all ne highs

  46. Don

    Nice rally today on weak volume. The smart move was to add to bearish positions which is what I did near the close. Bought 400 SRTY at 28.49. I think we saw a triple top on April 1.

  47. Ralph Wiederzane

    Pfffft!! Just like that Stevie is down on the year. That’s what one gets with 3x leverage and fighting a trend while booking miniscule gains just because they’re up a hair. Sooner or later a smashing comes and the dinky gains one bragged about are now huge losses. Tomorrow could be lights out for Stevie so it’ll be tough for him to get any sleep tonight. All he had to do was sign up and get on the G-Train, he’d be well on his was to riches!

    1. Bill

      I’m still long … I see no reason to bail the position just yet even tho the profits are exceptional it just gets much more expansive to jump back in I like my broker but I like to keep his fees minimal as well

      1. Don

        Bill, I pay a flat fee of $4.99 per trade. That is nothing unless trade dollar values are very small. If you are paying more, shop around.

  48. MuffinTop

    LABU update — I mentioned in one of my last post that LABU would jump up to $36/$38 and with momentum on our side, it is very likely going to tag (and possibly breach) $40 before we see a pull-back of any kind.

    Intraday charts are still very bullish and showing no signs of divergence. I would advise everyone to ‘Hold’ their position at this point — momentum is your friend, ride the wave!

    Ps: I would also advise against shorting OIL at this point folks πŸ™‚ And if Gary wasn’t busy climbing mountains, he would also advise against trying to pick a top in the Markets. Don’t be a Hero.

  49. victor

    Shorted LABU at 37.14… ? don’t know … lots of resistance here on other biotech GILD, AMGN, ABBV, CELG …

    1. MuffinTop

      Who knows, you could luck out..
      But I would seriously advise not to trade against momentum, that’s like trying to catch a falling knife πŸ™
      Don’t be a ‘Stevo’!

    1. victor

      9.99$ p/trade? I’m with Scotia iTrade, 4.99 p/trade. 247 trades last quotar though…, guess it makes iTrade happy with $1,232.53 just in commissions…

  50. Don

    I guess we will have to wait until tomorrow to see who got out of LABU near today’s top. (assuming it is down, that is)

  51. El Lobo

    Still short USO, DJP, GREK. Despite the rally in oil today, the short trade had yet to be proven wrong. No key levels taken out as of yet.

  52. Anthonyo

    Fibonacci Schibonacci, TA, EWT, Jap Candle sticks Not wortha hell of beans in highly manipulative PPT-ridden markets. Especially EWT is a crock of sh..t. It never worked when it worked even. Bob Prechter is an idiot.

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