Oil is going higher. All the fundamental and technical analysts calling for lower oil got it wrong again at the cycle bottom. This has become almost like clockwork. As soon as they start pulling out “the fundamentals” you know it’s time for the cycle to bottom.

Oil is going higher

During this second daily cycle oil will break through the 200 DMA and I expect we will at least see price above the October highs before this intermediate cycle tops. And, with oil resuming its rally, there probably isn’t going to be much further downside to the stock market daily cycle low (DCL).

Like our new Facebook page to stay current on all things Smart Money Tracker


  1. Gary Post author

    As soon as Chris and Doc over at Kereport start talking about the fundamentals or technicals for oil to go lower that is almost always the buy signal. Don’t these guys know that by the time the fundamentals have changed the market has already long since anticipated it?

    1. Gary Post author

      One can only get lucky so many times trying to fight the trend before you lose big and wipeout all the small gains you made.

      I had to learn this the hard way… apparently Steve will too.

      1. Ralph Wiederzane

        Nice call G on the miners, I have several right at the 52 week highs again already. I’m quite pleased with the Old Turkey hold on that group!

        1. ndmaster

          What are you talking about? Gary recommended selling all miners weeks ago and avoiding them until late April/May!

          1. Gary Post author

            That’s still what I’m doing. Some people are holding Old Turkey. I’m going to wait for the next ICL then go heavy again. We made an insane amount of money on the trade. I’m not worried about trying to catch every penny and risk getting caught in the the ICL.

    1. Ralph Wiederzane

      Stevie shoulda been buying the ERX just about the exact time he was chiding Gary the other day. At least he’s 300% short today, that should make up for it. 🙂

        1. Ralph Wiederzane

          Great article to keep handy. Combine all those losing factors with taking small profits every time they present, thus training oneself to cash out of what could be a big winner far too early (when it finally comes along), and its a recipe for disaster.

          1. Bill

            Indeed, again Ive tried the day trading ( 300% short lol ) and all I was doing was fighting myself for scraps, and missed many many big pay days. Now I wait for the money to come to me. Many people say they can’t make money playing options, well I must be one of the positive percent as I make money on options with no issues. As Gary noted position and length of time…

          2. victorm

            this is so true… many time I told myself to quit day trading ( I will ) and just catch up big moves… , so tired to pick up peanuts making with stressful day trading but lose bigger money with less headache…, Gary looks on such folks like daddy on kids probably…

          3. tulip

            ralphie- I thought u were holding old turkey…
            taking small profits in the gold mkt is a terrible idea-

  2. Don

    Yes Bill, you are a brilliant investor, we get it. Gary must be getting sore from all the back slapping. No dissenting voices today? Where’s Stevie?

    1. Bill

      Thank you Don, and yes Ive been told that many times, glad you noticed that through my text as well 🙂 so instead of firing back at your ignorance Ill take it as a compliment.

  3. Don

    What’s up with the Bio techs? Market is up strong ( to be faded) and LABU is falling apart. Of course, everyone got out yesterday at the highs or so we should be hearing soon.

    1. Gary Post author

      After that monster move bio is going to have to flag and allow the 10 DMA time to catch up to price. Sentiment hit 99% on that big up day. That’s going to have to cool off for a few days.

    2. Ralph Wiederzane

      Stevie probably blew out, if not today then soon enough. You stink Don, must be a lot of fun at parties!

      1. Bill

        Well its a fact, or are you being sarcastic its hard to tell. Or is this another one of those what Gary said in 2011-2013 posts? people evolve people hone their skills, this what Gary said before stuff is ridiculous!…Hell the FED and Goldman NEVER! EVER! hit their calls…EVER!

        Goldman just said they are long the dollar just Wednesday, sure they may hit their call, but in the mean time they are not making anything… so should we chastise them or take what they say and make it work for us personally?

    1. Ralph Wiederzane

      Great charts all over the place in the mining sector, so much for the clowns calling for $800 gold. If those charts don’t shout higher prices, I don’t know what does.

      1. Ralph Wiederzane

        And what’s most funny is the dummies don’t have any conviction in the crap that spills out of their mouths, or they’d be short this supposed downtrend. Nope, they just come here to try and shake winners out of their positions since they can’t stand to watch all this easy money being made.

        Thanks again Gary, this might end up being the call of the decade!

      2. Bill

        Funny thing that Regency bias Ralph, the louder they scream for $800 dollar gold the more you buy lol….

  4. Gary Post author

    Remember the time to buy is when you are scared (as stocks move down into their DCL) and the time to sell is when you are happy (as gold and miners move into their cycle top).

    Expect gold to top when the dollar and stocks bottom. That could happen any day as the McClellen oscillator is getting oversold and it’s late in the daily cycle. I would like to see the 5 day RSI reach oversold on stocks first though.

  5. Don

    Bill, have you noticed how much you and Ralph think alike? Even your grammar and writing style are very similar. Related perhaps?

    1. Bill

      When all else fails the Grammar Nazi’s attack…you got nothing. Again Ive dealt with your type, from Kings World News, to Zero Hedge, to TFMetlas report and back again, I’ve seen and read it all and have put many like you in their place. But see I’ve evolved you on the other your like the other vermin who hope for disaster so you can profit from it. Sure guilty as charged I was lead to believe this as well, and lost thousands of dollars following the world is coming to an end crowd, so glad that is behind me.

      And no Ralph and I are not related perhaps he too is a reformed Doomer…

    2. Ralph Wiederzane

      You’re a paranoid fool Don, and only Bill and I can know that for sure since we know we’re not the same. You’ll just have to keep thinking about it with no resolution.

  6. Don

    NDMaster: You are correct. Gary did say to stay out of gold and the miners for several weeks. His article of April 3 is quite clear on the issue.

    1. Gary Post author

      Correct. Unless you are holding Old Turkey it’s way too late in the intermediate cycle to be buying miners now. This is that time where smart money dumps their shares onto the emotional retail buyers ahead of an ICL. We are 18 weeks into an intermediate cycle. Any upside from here is going to be given back during the ICL. At this point you will just be playing musical chairs trying to pick the exact top without getting caught.

      I would rather just wait for the ICL and then buy when the upside potential is much greater.

      This is what recency bias does to traders. The further price rallies the more our emotions make us think it will never come back down. Or vice versa, the more something drops the more our emotions tell us it will never recover. I think we all know that is illogical yet we can’t help ourselves from doing the exact thing that ends up costing us money.

      Buy low, sell high.

      1. Gary Post author

        After today sentiment on GDX will be above 85-90% bulls. That’s dangerous levels. Sentiment on biotech will have pulled back nicely.

        If your trades are driven by your emotions you will buy miners and sell biotech. If you suppress your emotions and try to think logically you will realize that the odds are better to sell miners and buy biotech as the sentiment is skewed for better returns by doing the opposite of what your emotions are telling you to do.

  7. Don

    Given that both Bill and Ralph blogs are almost all about praising one another (and Gary to keep on his good side?) and attacking virtually everyone else with name calling and other childish tactics, perhaps it is understandable that some may conclude that Bill and Ralph are the same person, however, I will concede that they may be two different very different but pathetic individuals. They add nothing of substance to the blog that can be helpful to the exchange of ideas and discussion of Gary’s methodology.

      1. Ralph Wiederzane

        You got lucky, I’m going to go outside and get some sun. I’ll leave you here to add all your perceived value to the blog as you call everybody liars for selling yesterday, which nobody did. Just try not to whine too hard to Gary, it’s annoying as hell and I’ll be back later to let you know how I feel about it if you do.

    1. Bill

      Yummy I feed off of your hate…keep it coming. It just tells me the next leg up is coming and I should buy more. Also Hypocrite, since when have ou cared as much for Gary’s Mythologies? you have scorned them since day one. I on the other hand have excepted his formula and Greatly appreciates it, whereas you continue to chastise him on a daily basis.

      Scanning through the many threads with your name I have never once seen you post anything of substance related to trading such as a chart a link ….nothing, yet you sit here with your hate ( which I feed on ) and tell me I add nothing to the blog.

      Ha ha ha….. My guess is your nothing more than a Dorm room punk or someone who camps put in their moms basement or worse A Goldman employee…

      1. Don

        Again with more name calling. And, it’s Methodology , not Mythologies. Do you even bother to read before you launch yet another attack?

        1. Bill

          Don don’t think for one moment I don’t see through your poor me routine lol, again son…. I do this for a living. Trading and blogging, to bad you didn’t know my other surnames I ma pretty popular guy, but you’ll never know now will you.

          1. Don

            “Poor me”? What the heck are you babbling about now? And, why would anyone care about your other surnames? I refuse to believe that you could be popular on any blog site.

          2. Bill

            Of course you do, its like I can anticipate your every response before you say it lol, IF i could only trade on it ….

            Lol see below.

  8. Ralph Wiederzane

    But I will admit, I find Bill quite likable, as I do MuffinTop and Gary. Good day fellas!

  9. Bill

    Feel free to clear the board Gary sorry to clutter your forum with nonsense…after all the attacker is cowering now that he gets a little push back, Im here to talk trades not battle with words…so as the bigger man here I am sorry for that.

  10. Don

    I do not always agree with Gary and admit that I am sometimes even critical of his analysis. He is not perfect with his calls and has made mistakes. That said, Gary is one of the best analysts I have come across in my 38 years of investing and he is getting better at what he does.

    1. Bill

      Nicely said, well Ive been trading for 22 years myself, so see we do have a common ground. We can be friends or we can be frienemys matters not to me as I take none of this personal as I said Ive seen it all.

      With that good trades to you Don, I have other places to view as I’ve eluded to ( WAVES WHITE FLAG )

  11. silverrex

    Gary since gold is 18 weeks into its intermediate cycle and feels like it is not giving up, will this cut short the next rally that suppose to begin in May? or similar to how you say in a runaway market, DCL fails to register, can gold fail to register a ICL and instead just keeps moving higher?

    1. Gary Post author

      There will be an ICL. Any further upside now will be given back during the ICL. The dollar hasn’t found its ICL bottom yet and stocks are still moving down into their DCL. I expect both will occur together. Then once the dollar and stocks start to rally gold will have its opportunity to move down into the ICL.

      I’ll say it again. We made enough on the metals trade. There’s no need to try to catch every penny especially now that gold is 18 weeks into its intermediate cycle and with the Blees rating at 0.

  12. Don

    Gary, what do you make of announced FED’s meeting “under expedited procedures” on this coming Monday?

    1. bill

      Speculation on my part that this is to build agreement to delay further rate hikes to further the aims of the purported Shanghai Accords. ( Of course this is assuming you’ve read them )

      Minimal/no dissent would seem to be part of the play

  13. silverrex

    didnt I read last year china was going to peg their currency to gold in some way or form in April? I wonder if there is any chance that the ICL could be ignored if some currency event happens that intervenes Gary’s cycles

    1. silverrex

      might I add, Gary has been preaching how real market manipulations and so what if gold was to suddenly sky rocket? the miners refused to cool down, despite gold failing to make new highs, miners are making new highs, some suggest this is a sign that gold is about to follow.

      if Gary is correct on the bull market in this sector, I do not see why you cant leave 25% position as old turkey but instead exit completely (like LABU) only to buy back higher…. I have exited miners completely, I hope Gary is correct that in May we will see some sell off

  14. Don

    Interesting day today, stock market started out red hot and just faded away. Stock market smash down next week. starting Monday is my prediction.

  15. Don

    I have been watching Canadian penny gold mining stocks decline for years and have even bought some. penny stocks are beginning to show some life and volumes are up significantly. Many of the ones I paid one or two cents for are up 3 or 4 X . I bought 500000 of one particular stock for a half cent each and it is currently at one cent. It sure would be nice if it went to a dollar! (dreaming, I know)
    My point is that renewed interest in the penny miner stocks may be a sign of what is to come for gold. The time to make money on penny stocks does not come very often and I think this may be one of those rare opportunities.

      1. Don

        Gary probably wouldn’t like anyone flogging penny stocks on his website so I will give you an email address. Just send an email and I will give you a short list of some that hold promise. (insider buying, etc) email is [email protected]

  16. Don

    Gary, you said that sentiment for GDX would be 85-90 percent bulls. Is that the kind of info one can get from Sentimentrader.com?

  17. Rango

    Gary any thoughts where Gold and Dollar is in it’s daily and intermediate cycle?

    Dollar looks like crap on charts and USD/YEN is crashing like a rock too., while obviously YEN is surging like a mad man.

    BOJ is being awfully quite while US Fed is also quite. Very strange as Japan needs weak Yen for their exports as they’re big exporter of goods (cars, electronics etc) and strong yen would cripple their economy. Interesting play her by Yellen.

    1. Gary Post author

      I’m going to cover the dollar in the weekend report. The next week should produce a final ICL and tell us whether the cyclical bull market is over.

  18. Don

    Don’t need to be…. Gary has mentioned a few times that it is a good subscription. I want to know if it provides sentiment numbers for individual stocks.

Comments are closed.