The voice of complacency says no pullback in gold. Anyone who took profits will not get a chance to reenter. Here is the chart. Clearly this analyst was expecting gold to soon take out the 2014 high. It’s forming a bull flag and cup and handle patterns in preparation for the rocket launch right?

final intermediate cycle low

Well this is why I don’t put a lot of faith in chart patterns. They often morph into something else. Doesn’t look much like a bull flag, or a cup and handle anymore does it?


“Bulls won’t get a reentry into the metals sector”

I’ve got news for you, We already have a 17% better entry.


I’ll say it again. At intermediate turning points, either tops or bottoms, you need different tools to anticipate the turns. If you strictly follow chart patterns, and technicals like most amateur analysts, more often than not you are going to get caught on the wrong side of the market.

And anyone who tries to convince you that the volatile metals market won’t have an intermediate degree correction, or that it will be mild just hasn’t been paying attention. Gold is a very emotional asset for most traders. That means it tends to have big swings in both directions.

Let me stress again to have some patience. Both gold and silver will need to break their intermediate trend lines before the intermediate cycle low can be complete.

final intermediate cycle low gold

I’d also like to see the commercials reduce their large short position considerably more, and I would like to see sentiment move a lot further in the bearish direction before I try to call an intermediate cycle low.

Like our new Facebook page to stay current on all things Smart Money Tracker


  1. KimJ

    “Doesn’t look much like a bull flag, or a cup and handle anymore does it?” Falling knives!

  2. Gary Post author

    Where are all the traders that assured me biotech was dead? You had a chance, actually you’ve had multiple chances to buy low, but I wager none of them could fight their emotions and do it.

    If you had bought LABU at the bottom of the correction you would now be up 62%.

    Remember this the next time I try to get you to go against your emotions and buy low.

    1. smoothie

      I used your advice and bought in at 22.35!

      I did sell at $27.40 as I was nervous about how quickly it had recovered. 🙂

      That was in a separate account. I have my original position with a cost of 33$ that I’m much happier with.

      As mentioned before, your teachings are much appreciated.

    1. Gary Post author

      I like Ricks system. I’m not really into the whole day trading thing but his hidden pivot system works pretty darn good.

  3. chrisG

    Yes, I agree. He sometimes missed it a bit. But mostly , his targets are met. I had some experience there. It’s forum though, sucks. Spx 1800, to 2050, mostly missed it. He was bearish, but adjusted to point it up. His forum guys, some thinking they are expert, could still doubt it. And many still bearish then.

  4. chrisG

    I could see it was going up, based on price actions, but whenever I post it looks up, the regular forum guys attacked u. There’s a cult thing going on there. Recently, I could see semis being strong, and in a week , semis rallied a lot, spx too. But as long as u don’t post HP, they attacked you. Wierd forum.

  5. chrisG

    Here it’s different, when I said just look at semis, looking strong. Gary replied, yes semis…. There, u make such posts, they say you mumbo jumbo. Lol. It seems like only HP can make money, tape reading, cycles etc all will be attacked.

    1. Gary Post author

      The only problem I have with Rick is that he’s a perma bear so he’s always looking for a reason to short stocks.

  6. chrisG

    Anyway, Gary, any views on Brexit? If out , will US$ rallied and crash gold? How will it impact stocks? Anyway, I am in the bull camp still. I hold some social media stocks. As long as certain levels not taken out, I sit tight. That’s the way to make big bucks during bull market

    1. Gary Post author

      Even if they have to rig the vote I expect Brexit will turn out to be a nonevent.

  7. chrisG

    Lol, ya, I had this thought yesterday. I think Churchill said something like it’s not the voters that matters,. It’s the people counting that matters!!!

  8. chrisG

    Your cycles thing is quite good in its merit. Rick previously says u are probably a good guy but he disagrees with most of the things u r saying. Hey, he missed this 1300-1200 drop. His bias is to have gold go up to 1370 ish. So has been advising to buy on dips

    1. Gary Post author

      The one problem with Rick’s system is that it doesn’t spot cycle turning points.

  9. Gary Post author

    Folks, we made a change to the metals portfolio today. So if you want to follow in real time you need to at least get a monthly subscription.

  10. nonew

    Hello Gary,
    Can I ask you to reflect on Tom McClellan’s recent article titled “Major Cycle Low Upcoming in Gold”? Additionally, if you were to try to merge your cycle work and his together, how do you think might play out.
    Really interested to hear what you would have to say since that article involves cycle work.

  11. JetFuel

    Good luck guys waiting for the magical cycle low to come in late June or early July. What’s the game plan once a new swing high is made in the GDX? I suspect there is NO plan for that scenario…just watching on the sidelines or buying DUST and constantly getting stopped out.

      1. JetFuel

        Couldn’t agree more Gab. The problem with these guys here is that they don’t trade what IS happening, they trade what is SUPPOSED to happen as they quietly let price run away as they wait for their cycle low to emerge like a mythical creature and save the day. Hope (or guessing) isn’t a trading strategy.

        1. Gary Post author

          I’ve got it covered. Why don’t you get a monthly susbcription so you won’t have to be three steps behind us all the time?

          BTW here is what IS happening. Stocks are trending up and holding above a rising 10 DMA, gold is trending down and holding below a falling 10 day moving average.

  12. victor

    JetF, all analysts “hope or guessing” difference is most of them try not to use this words…, if you like analysis that is “nicely wrapped ” to sell it to you – just don’t listen Gary, that’s all…

  13. Surf City

    Sentiment Trader still sees the Stock Market at “High Risk” near term. Smart Money is excessively pessimistic and Dumb Money is trending towards overly optimistic. The Put/Call ratio is also a concern.

    “The ratio of defensive put option trading to speculative call option trading has dropped to its lowest level in more than a year.”

  14. chrisG

    Jet, don’t be a fool. If gdx doesn’t drop, it rallies, we being the smart ones will have a plan, and entry point if that happens. But we don’t have to plan now. When it happens real time, we will know when to enter. But u better have a plan if this turns out to be a dead cat bounce. Our next entry price will be low when this happens, so, even if we have to cut, we will make good profit since we have already booked good profits previously.

    Not forgetting, we have recycled those profits into stock market , while gold is dropping

Comments are closed.