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Or it could be a cup and handle dollar could go to 120.
What is going to happen that will cause the USD to sink into the abyss? NIRP in US down th road??
Trillions and trillions of dollars have been printed. That is going to have consequences at some point.
So at the open today the bears will have given back almost all of the gains they made over a 4 week period in only 5 days.
Now you see why I don’t like to sell short. If you don’t time the perfect exit you end up giving back all of your profits in just a couple of days.
We are now in the stage where the bears hang on trying to find reasons for why the market will soon turn back down. All they will end up doing is digging a deeper and deeper hole for themselves.
Folks stop listening to these people. The perma bears are going to cost you huge amounts of money in the years ahead. Now is the time to get on board, and especially on board the biotech sector as it will be where the first bubble will focus.
Should open at 2080+(s&p). I would like to see a close above last summers high before putting the possibility of further falls to bed. But sure last couple of days put momentum back in the bulls court.
Victor, I just saw your reply in Gary’s prior post.
GOLD TO HAVE DCL TODAY!
I have a buy-stop order for gold at 1226 for the same small weight (part of a swing strategy – it is different from my main momentum-driven strategy) which if triggered, I’ll attach a stop-loss at 1220 and a same take-profit target of 1285 – where I figure now that DCH will be charted.
After that I’ll enter short on gold with a larger weight.
Thank you Alex..
Gold should be getting close to a DCL and the first convincing bounce to fleece late shorts and get bulls back in too early. After a 4-6 day bounce it will then start back down again.
agreed
The trolls are awfully quite today.
…. I told you so…….
they are quite quiet Gary!
Is the light volume a concern in LABU? Are you expecting a final dip down to test the lows similar to what GDX did in January before the final bottom?
LABU had gingantic volume at the bottom that is a sign that a major leg up is going to unfold. Hold on tight as it will take a couple of months or more to play out.
I just looked at all my indicators, and I barely have any that you can make a bear case at this point. I don’t understand why people are fighting this market anymore.
The semis have made a higher high. They are leading the market. It’s only a matter of time before the SPX goes above the April high and then above the November high and confirms what I’ve been saying all along. This was never going to be a bear market.
Chartists always always get this wrong. It takes more than charts to understand what’s going on underneath the surface.
When you finally get tired of losing money by listening to these nitwits get a monthly susbcription so you can learn how to really analyze the market. Blatant sales pitch 🙂
But I purposely keep my rates very low so everyone can have access to serious analysis as opposed to the worthless nonsense you get on most other sites.
“You guys , gary etc are fools u know. Gold is now at $1319!!! Not $1219!!” lol
Everyday rally $50, in 100 days, $5000 gold. Never a correction. Cant understand the repeated questioning and doubting of Gary those few days. Even with the scary COT, still proclaim no correction. That this time , its different. COT doesnt work. No more fib drops, oh yes have, only can accept $20 correction.
I can tell those trolls something, GDX is heading for 200 dma. Yes , maybe after some bounce. But in June/ July, see ya
The banks, bkx, xlf etc are making higher highs too
Gary,
Excellent wrap up of baby bull phase conclusion and the long slow grind phase in the intermediate bull market coming in gold.
Question: How do we pair the Fed’s hiking rates stance which is just beginning now(and presumably will last a few years) with a 6-7 year bear market in USD?
During the last rate hiking cycle the dollar was in a bear market. Rates appear to be meaningless. It all just depends on quantity.
Indeed. Thank you.
Gary,
“But I purposely keep my rates very low so everyone can have access to serious analysis as opposed to the worthless nonsense you get on most other sites.”
oh, stop adding that additional salt …, they hate you already a lot…
Thank you Gary for the analyses, there’s seems some complains about audio quality earlier, I would suggest invite a professional and fix those issues. Gary agree on that: your professional analysis made on unprofessional equipment…, hell, Armstrong even made a robot for that…, and expenses sign off on taxes anyway…
I can’t fix it because I can’t reporduce the problem on any of my equipment. The sound is turned all the way up when recording and every video I make it sounds completely normal when I play it.
So the problem has to be on users end, not my side.
Gary, Here is a repost from yesterday regarding your proposed Blood Bath ICL phase. Gold, is now almost 6 months from the early Dec 2015 low so I am curious how you KNOW that the ICL will be in late June? Also how do you KNOW that June will also be the Yearly Cycle Low?
Take a look at the Gold fractal from the 2009 bottom in this post? Where was the bloodbath phase ICL on the charts? Was it the 38%+ retrace near the normal 6 month ICL timing band (hardly a bloodbath). Also, where was the Yearly Cycle low on the move out of the 2009 low?
https://goldtadise.com/?p=370732
Lastly, most are not buying the metal here but rather the miners. GDXJ is up 50% since mid-February while Gold is only up 2% over the same period.
My chart work shows that a Gold DCL is close and yesterday I was busy buying back my “Trading Shares” that I took profits on right after the FMOC meeting.
Trading Shares are green now 😉
https://goldtadise.com/?p=370882
38% retracement “hardly a bloodbath”.
I weathered those in real time and I can assure you they were scary as hell.
We had a 23% retracement in stocks and everyone was freaking out.
Remember this is the fakeout move that gets everyone long too soon only to drag them back down. The final ICL when it comes is going to be a hell of a lot scarier then this first leg down.
How about you post on your site that I was exactly right and you guys were wrong. Just admit that you got it wrong and show some class and then quit the back stabbing nonsense so you don’t have to eat crow anymore, because let’s face it you guys are really looking pretty foolish at this point.
Troll alert.
I’ll open the long-gold swing-trade position in the instant USX reaches 95.35, i.e. renders a lower low today, with stop loss at 1215 and take profit at the same 1285 –> many many multiples of reward/risk.
Facts: In one month, the S&P is up 0.26%, the Semis (SOXX) are up 3.79% and the Biotechs (XBI) are DOWN 1.75%
I think it may be a little premature to conclude that the market is being led up to new highs by the Semis or that the Biotechs are on the verge of a parabolic move.
What is really bring the market up has been the same old favorites such as Amazon, up a whopping 13.% Facebook, (a company that produces nothing) which is up 7% and a squeeze on the ‘most shorted stocks’.
Amazon is the pioneering epitome paradigm of our age. It has just begun in its accelerated ascent; and a long way to go yet. Drones are in your future coming to a street near you.
Talk about old turkey.
Yes, everyone loves Amazon.
Don,
And this is why you continue to be on the wrong side of every trade. You wait for confirmation. By the time you get it it’s time for a corrective move.
I don’t wait, I anticipate bottoms and I’m selling the confirmation when you are buying.
Gary, I don’t know where you get the idea that I am “on the wrong side of every trade”. I made a bundle on silver via a triple leveraged fund and and am now accumulating SLV as a longer term hold. I lost about $30 on a short term trade on LABU. I am neither short nor long the Biotechs. I just don’t believe they will go , as you put it, “parabolic”.
I am short the S&P and that position has cost me very little given that The S&P has gone no where for very long for more than a year. I remain short because I believe we are in a bear market rally, despite what your OPINION is on the matter.
Please stop making unwarranted assumptions about what my positions are or what I may have lost or gained on. I have had to pay taxes on market gains for 29 of the last 38 years.
Apple was the favorite flavor in 2015 (now down 26% from it’s high).
Apple’s best days are behind it…it will become another Microsoft(an over the hill company), or at worst an IBM.
Surf City, why do you even come to Gary’s blog? You bash him on other trading/gold rooms (I see you did that on Bullbeartalk) and probably Gold-Eagle, etc. Oh, let me guess, Oscar Carboni’s chat as well. You have your own website….why do you constantly have to be needling here?
Don’t think I am Bashing him at all. Rather, I am just holding him accountable on his “Guarantees” asking him to clarify his Cycle Analysis where he “Guarantees” this or that mostly on what he thinks the PPT will or won’t do. He may be right but the word “Guarantee” implies that he can never be wrong.
He guarantees that the 7 year Low is in on Stocks based on a couple of failed trend line breaks and I have shown that in the 2000-02 Bear, various indicies broke down trend lines only to move much, much lower.
On Gold, he guarantees that the Blood Bath phase is just ahead as it always is but i have shown several bullish breakouts in Gold and other assets, where normal cycle trend lines were not broken to the down side for 9-12 months. The point is, what if he is wrong?
Someone pointed out that back in 2014 he Guaranteed that the Gold Bear over and had his Subs buy GDX and GDXJ Old Turkey along with long dated LEAP options? Just saying be careful as anyone who guarantees anything will likely be humbled.
Do you know any other newsletter writer that has ever offered a money back guarantee if he was wrong?
I’ve done it multiple times and never been wrong once.
You also have your facts wrong. I never guaranteed the bear was over in 2014 and we never bought LEAP’s in 2014. By 2014 it was clear the market was being manipulated down by controlling the futures market.
How about you post on your site that I was exactly right and you guys were wrong. Just admit that you got it wrong and show some class and then quit the back stabbing nonsense so you don’t have to eat crow anymore, because let’s face it you guys are really looking pretty foolish at this point.
Gary, Sorry I got it wrong about the 2014 Leaps as it was actually May of 2013
https://smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/may-12-leap-options/
Correct and it was only a 6% position so no serious damage was done.
goldilocks, exactly my thought, too. What does anyone gain by being a constant nagging nuisance here?
goldilock, I say, A woodpecker in heat pecking the stucco in the month of May would have been less annoying than this “Surface Town” pest here. Shoo, shoo, Off with you sir! No substance at all, just likes the attention and a congenital nagger here. Some peoples’ kids!
Agree with Goldilocks. Surf, if you don’t agree with Gary’s cycle work, don’t read it. I’m tired of you bashing him every step of the way, particularly on goldtadise.com. DIfferent views make a market – have some class and stop needling.
Aida, I loved the opera, and now you. Kudos. Shoo the surf pests.
I agree that it’s not time to get crazy with Gold although I have kept most of my penny stocks. However, I am not buying into this new stock market high by July idea any more than I buy into the biotech going parabolic thing. Just my opinion, not bashing anyone.
If we look at the beginning of Gold Bull Market in 2004 and 2007, we had shallow correction …
http://postimg.org/image/8utmc06sb/
http://postimg.org/image/rnos1aul7/
Since the beginning of 2016 some people are still waiting for a bigger correction …
http://postimg.org/image/un5singpn/
Are we really gonna have a second chance to enter the market at favorable levels for those who got caught sleeping and missed the initial move.
Gab, Nice charts and research. The moves in the miners are especially telling here so far in 2016. Every dip is being bought aggressively. Just pull up almost any Miner chart and look at the On Balance Volume (OBV). Smart Money is using dips to accumulate, IMO.
Also, this is a bull market now so everyone should have a core Buy and Hold position, IMO. Have the right strategy for the right market. You can Trade a Bear, but you should Ride a Bull.
http://www.investopedia.com/articles/technical/100801.asp?utm_term=on+balance+volume&utm_content=sem&utm_medium=paidsearch&utm_source=google&utm_campaign=adid-e5ab8168-1bd4-432e-a105-94467df50a9e-0-ip_gsm_ocode-36677&ad=semD&an=google_s&am=modifiedbroad&o=36677&askid=e5ab8168-1bd4-432e-a105-94467df50a9e-0-ip_gsm&l=sem&qsrc=999&qo=semQuery&ap=google.com
Thanks Surf City. Appreciate your charts too.
I remember Joseph Granville very well. He predicted the 1981 stock market top and his ‘On Balance Volume’ theory was all the rage at the time as it seemed to work, at least until when the bull market of 1982 began. He was dead wrong after that and fought the great bull markets of the eighties and nineties with endless calls for bear markets to begin. A lot of money was lost by the many who bought into Granville’s theory.
This article does a great summary of Granville: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/four-lessons-joe-granville-taught-us-2013-09-10
Interesting article. Hard to believe that he could not effectively use the OBV indicator that he created? Ego perhaps?
The market eventually breaks every system. Cycles are evolving right now as an example. The traders that can adapt quickly are the ones who make money.
Gary, I will respectfully disagree with you on that front. Other than the length of long Stock cycles perhaps, nothing about Walter Bressert’s Cycle theory has changed at all.
This is especially true if you get the longer cycles correct as they determine the outcome of shorter ones. Blending Cycles with standard Technical Analysis and Price Channels seems to work just fine for me. All the chart patterns described by Edwards and Magee still show up in all the charts for Traders to recognize (or not).
Nothing is perfect but my blended approach seems to be working quite well.
Y A W N.
There is the possibility some of the indexes (maybe not all) do break to new, all time highs but the move is a big fake-out and reverses. My opinion…..there is a lot of money coming to the US from the Eurozone and, probably the East. I do not own any stocks except for some small cap miners/explorers that I plan on holding for a few years.
“the move is a big fake-out”
Maybe if the 7 YCL hadn’t already bottomed. But as the 7 YCL did bottom in February this is not a fakeout, this is the real deal, and when the Nasdaq finally breaks out above that 15 year top there is no telling how far this will go, especially considering the trillions and trillions of currency units available to drive it.
agree about the money ready to drive it……
long gold at 1224
USX decline which is in its infancy should allow stocks to rally by friday or monday the latest
I like 1208 or 1202 for a short term counter trend long (gold)….maybe I will get it (and maybe I won’t) this week.
gary, what is your view on GBP in the coming weeks.
do you still think it’s going to bottom against the dollar in june? my feeling is that it’s unlikely especially looking at sterling’s performance today. RSI lacks downward momentum as well.
No idea on sterling. I rarely ever look at it.
alright thanks. do you still still stick by your guarantee that we’re going to see highs in US equities given the possibility of a rate hike in june? (interested in subscribing, just want to know your thoughts before i do)
After the last 5 days a retest of the all-time highs is virtually a lock at this point. Only 5 days into a new daily cycle and only 44 points away.
Forum pollution brought to you by ….SC.
Gary, you and your bears must wait until confirmation before buying is so funny. Ya, i thought of something even funnier. Bears will wait until corporate earnings are good, GDP etc , all the figures are good. Then they will say, time to buy. Bull market. Then, because technicals are weak, and maybe because of buy the rumour sell the facts, market turn down. You say sell. They will turn around and argue with you, saying why you so stupid to say sell when everything is good!!! lol And then , this whole shit of fighting, arguing can continue again.
And Gary, i think you are right about US$. Will be breaking down over next 2 years. Because you look at IBM. It is making a major bottom. IBM is a good reversed play of US$, and a pretty good forecaster too.
Gary,
Avi is saying that the correction could have been completed for gold and that GDX could be on the way to 40 contrary to what you believe. I rather believe you but looking on gold tonight its strong. Maybe he is right?
Gary is very busy. This is easy. I reply for him. Yes Avi is right, go long. Can’t wait to miss the big run up. Please go buy a lot of gold. No big fib retracement. No 200 dma testing. Then after this bounce, gold plunge harder, hurting all premature buyers! Lol
To take a page out of Avi’s playbook, we traded this perfectly, and got out of our hedges at almost the exact bottom this morning because the DCL was due. Gold needs to rally at least far enough to break the cycle down trend line. That will cause premature bulls to buy too early and then get sucked down into the final ICL once the euro makes the final plunge into its ICL in June.