1. jhmoffett

    Gary — nice long-term, bigger picture perspective and needs to be kept in mind at all times. In the near term, if stocks (SPX) test or slightly exceed their all time highs at 2134, will that trigger an immediate larger breakout, or do you see a pullback & retracement occurring first before that larger breakout??

      1. Bilf

        Hi Gary, I am a Chinese trader, I really like your views on the gold trend, but here in China I can not see your video, Do you have any good suggestions to solve this problem,Very grateful!

        1. chrisG

          Dude, china bans youtube, fb etc. Video contents from western will be banned there. Use vpn maybe

  2. eddy1974

    if gold’s botton is in area 1140/1160 how will be the arca gold miners index?
    Looking january-may NUGT did a big rally : over 500%
    And now DUST is another good opportunity?

    1. Gary Post author

      I don’t know that it is possible to extrapolate a price for the miners.

  3. tulip

    Gary- big difference between 5 & 10 yrs…
    I think you better choose a time target if you want any credibility.

    1. Gary Post author

      Well the last secular bull lasted 18 years after the breakout so we may be at the very beginning.

  4. Gary Post author

    Well gold just broke below the March 28 low. How long do you think it will take before Plunger and the other pie in the sky gurus who critized me for not chasing, finally admit I was correct?

    He had the gall to call me a charlatan??? Well I think we now know who the fool is. Anyone who listened to his nonsense to buy buy buy with the mining stocks 75% above the 200 DMA is now getting the crap kicked out of them.

    1. KimJ

      Gary, I am sure happy I followed your advice. My fav. goldie down 35% now……
      Oz gold miners index down 14% – similar to HUI depending on the dates.
      Just keep doing what you do.

    2. mike trike

      Gary, why don’t you sign up at Goldtadise and post once in a while. Avi just signed up and a few other “Guru’s” post there as well. It’s not like Korelin’s site, no trolls are tolerated.

      1. Gary Post author

        That crowd is too busy bashing me. I doubt they have any intention of allowing me to post anything there.

    3. JetFuel

      Gary, listen…..the GDX has dropped a mere 27% after more than doubling (12.50-26) between Jan-May and is now trading in the 50MA zone with plenty of setups supporting the next leg up from here if you look at gold, dollar, euro, and GDX-based charts. A 27% gentle pullback from a 2X run is nothing….far short of your 62% pullback call, or retrace to 200MA or gold pulling back to 1160 or whatever you think is actual support. So if I am correct as suggested last week that Wed was the swing low in the HUI and prices only go higher from here, will you be stubborn and not buy back in at higher prices or is it more important for you to be right than rich? I hope you don’t coach your subscribers out of participating in the next solid leg higher because of your ego.

      1. chrisG

        Jet, go take a flight. If if if. Hey. Why should Gary patronize you. He has already made his point. In 1.5 months time, or shorter, we shall see. And you? The results will likely show that you’re wrong. And your arguments etc, will just dissolve. Stop challenging people over the same point. You can continue to post views that prices going up, but dont challenge others.

  5. fb7777

    that is an excellent presentation. I don’t know if you this but your thinking is starting to reflect what Martin Armstrong has been saying. His views are as interest rates start their rise (whether the Feds raise them or the market forces them up) the US$ is going to rise and the bond markets will commence going lower. This will cause gold INITIALLY to settle down perhaps below $1000. You know that we have not had a big washout in gold yet. The SM could perhaps peak and then settle down at lower prices. Once fear goes into the bond markets, Martin says that there could be the possibility of there being no bids, interest rates will rise and the US markets will suck in money from around the world propelling it to greater highs and gold and the other commodities will rise to new highs. This is the same scenario that happened during the 1920’s. Europe and Japan were in turmoil so money flowed into US$ and US stock markets and real estate. So it looks like history is repeating except this time you have more money floating around the world than before.

    1. Gary Post author

      He’s right about bonds, but he’s going to be wrong about gold and the dollar. He’s made a big call about gold going below $1000 and he can’t reverse that call without looking foolish so he’s going to stick with it until it’s obvious he’s wrong. The bottom line is that gold has bottomed.

      And he’s going to also be wrong about the dollar. It has started a new cyclical bear market. Again he’s been very vocal on this one and can’t reverse his call. He will be wrong on this one as well.

      1. fb7777

        I don’t mean any disrespect to you but I can see gold going down initially below $1000 at the initial start of interest rates rising as the gold bugs dump gold out of fear. Even for me looking at the Gold price using EW I see the last rise as wave 4 up with a wave 5 down needed to complete the correction in gold. Once the bond market problem begins to become obvious gold will then reverse and commence its rise to $5000. If Europe and Japan start to crash I can see the US$ going nowhere but much higher which will impact gold. With the US raising interest rates this will further add to demand for US$ as some countries have gone into negative rates.

        1. Gary Post author

          As far as I’ve seen EW is completely useless in real time. All the EW traders completely missed the bottom in gold.

          Gold has already rallied above 2 prior intmediate tops, and generated a right translated intermediate cycle. The miners rallied 135%.

          Gold has bottomed. And the reason it has bottomed is because the Fed needed liquidity flowing back into the oil market so they released the suppression artficially holding the gold market down. Once gold bottomed the entire commodity market bottomed. Gold did exactly as I said it would once the suppresion ended. The entire sector exploded higher. Oil followed accomplishing the Fed’s goal and saving the financial system from a collapse in the fracking industry.

          1. gab

            Sorry but I disagree.
            This guy called the bottom imminent last year in July using EW.
            Personnaly I think he was spot on. Gold made a lower low in the Ending Diagonal and started the new leg up.
            Actually I am looking for this count. EW is just a tool and I don’t claim that I called the top in 2011 or the bottom in 2016 like some others gurus …


  6. Gary Post author

    S&P futures are only 2 points away from breaking the November highs and confirming what I’ve been saying all along, that this was not a bear market, it was just a corrective move down into a 7 year cycle low. Yes the PPT aborted it a bit prematurely, but we knew all along there was risk of that happening. It’s why I kept stressing not to short the stock market.

  7. chrisG

    FB, if we see gold at 1110, then u have a chance. Above that, you can continue to wish for that scenario. Dont have to think too far. Once gold is around 200 dma, just look to long.

  8. eddy1974

    gold’s DCL coincide with NYSE Arca Gold Miners ‘s DCL? For me Nugt is a big opportunity if you look history price…..we are very low

    1. Gary Post author

      NUGT is not a long term hold. There is too much decay during intermediate declines. And we are never going to have another period like the baby bull for many years. That was a once in a decade opportunity. The bull from here on out will be much slower.

    1. Gary Post author

      Avi likes to claim that I tried to call the bottom every other month. Of course anyone who follows my work knows that is ridiculous. I try to call intermediate bottoms. Those only occur about every 5-7 months.

      In fact we did pretty good trading the intermediate rallies during the bear market. I didn’t trade the downside much during golds bear market because I don’t like to sell short. It’s hard to make money on the short side, and for all this talk about how much money these guys made shorting gold during the bear market, the truth is very far in the other direction. Out of roughly 40 short trades Rambus made money on about 5 of them during the bear market.

      The simple fact is that markets go down differently than they go up, and it took gold 2 1/2 years to go from $1150 in 2013 to $1045 in 2015. That isn’t a market conducive to making money either on the long or short side. Anyone who claims to have made a fortune shorting gold during this time is just flat out lying, or is the luckiest trader in the world and trading massive leverage. There just hasn’t been a sustainable trend in gold since the summer of 2013.

      1. gab

        This “gura” was calling for gold above 2000 in December 2011 when gold was near 1600$ …
        I wonder why he’s still saying that “He called the top in 2011” … oh well !
        “In the event that gold does find support at one of the higher levels, then the higher targets for the metal that I left you with the other day are still applicable: $2,111 (2.236 extension), $2,232 (2.382 extension), and $2,429 (2.618 extension).”


      2. aceskings

        Rambus actually had some incredible trades on the short side but always gave back all of his gains as never knew when to cover his shorts. Some of the best technical analysis with the worst money management I have ever seen.

        1. Gary Post author

          Selling short is a tough way to make money for sure. Markets go down differently than they go up. If you don’t time the bottom correctly you end up giving back all of your gains in a very short period of time.

          Any bears who didn’t cover 7 days ago probably gave up all their gains that took 4 weeks to amass during last weeks big rally.

  9. chrisG

    Wow, lol. Ya, i think in 2013-2014, gary was a bit lousy with his constant calls for gold bottom. And he did not provide very timely updates when it seemed to fail. But really, since 2015-2016, he has improved. Even though some of his calls for potential bottom is off, hey, when it rallied, he did suggest selling and see what happens during those drop. This is where a good skilled guy is skilled. They adjust. But since 2015-2016, especially 2016, he has been on a roll. Anyone who couldnt see that is just blind. And plain stupid.

    Gary is now mostly , if not all right with all markets. And compared with others, I dare say he is among the top 3. Those who did not profit from him is just prejudicial. And once again, stupid.

    For me, if you are good, i dont care if u an AH, or god, u are good, you deserve following. There was a period when Alex was pretty good, but since late last year, I think he has been relegated to First Division. Gary, he’s in the champions league for very long.

    If one day, he is relegated, fine, i will view his posts as an entertainment source.

  10. chrisG

    Did rambus say that gold could be back into Bear market? Anyway, i just know based on TA, gold has bounced this way many many years ago, only to resume bear, or stay sideways with slight downside bias. So this could still be a bear rally. I know Gary will say only working based on TA is not good enough, need cycles etc. But, i trust price, more than anything else. And really, Gary is no god. He could be wrong this time round. And if you dont have a style to get out if Gary is wrong, and you are in too deep, you will be in trouble.

    For me, gold is bull, until certain price is taken out on the downside. Gary or not i dont care. I have my own successful skills as well. When things are in conflict, I play safe. That said, i think Gary should be right with 80% confidence level.

    1. Gary Post author

      This was the same time I made my bet with Doc that the bottom was in. Gold did manage to make a slightly lower low in Dec. but for all practical purposes the miners did bottom in July.

  11. gab

    So I suppose this statement is false …
    “As far as I’ve seen EW is completely useless in real time. All the EW traders completely missed the bottom in gold.”
    Calling Interm, cyle and daily cycle low is nice because one day you catch the REAL bottom. Right ?

    1. Gary Post author

      I’ve never seen any of the EW traders consistently making accurate calls. What I see is a lot of alternate counts.

      Case in point, I was confident that stocks were moving down into a DCL. I didn’t need an alternate cycle count to tell me to look for a bottom.

      The problem I see with EW is that there isn’t a timing factor as far as I can tell. So wave 2 or 3 or 4 could begin or end at any time. How does one judeg in real time when a move is beginning or ending?

      So what I have observed over the years is that during any given period a group of 10 different practioners will have several different wave counts, because they are data mining the charts to find a count that fits the theory. Here is a perfect example of what I’m talking about. Corrective moves should have 3 waves according to EW and trend ing moves 5 (correct me if I’m wrong). In the example we can clearly see that the bear market legs rarely fit the predicted pattern according to EW. So in order to make the chart fit the theory analysts will move to smaller and smaller time frames until they do find the pattern they are looking for. At that point it just becomes data mining.

  12. gab

    Don’t want to look like a troll here.
    Corrective moves can be more complex than just three waves and we can also have differents degrees in
    those waves … I agree with you that EW is not the perfect tool because you can also hedge your count with an alternate count … I use it just as a tool with other momentum indicators and cycles.
    I wanted to point out that McHugh made a right call in July 2015 with EW.
    I was a listener of KE at that time and I remembered the comments you made with Doc.
    You called an Int. Cycle bottom at that time and a possibility for a move down to 1033 BUT you also called
    the final bottom at 850:

    “I tend to think the final bottom is more likely at 850 which would be the breakout above the 1980 high. ”

    And if you listen the audio you you were expecting a price below 1000$ …

    Just the facts …

    1. Gary Post author

      Yes at one time I did think we might go back down to test the 1980 high, but just to be fair I was also the one suggesting that the bear would likely end slightly above 1033 and catch all the bears on the wrong side of the boat just like the top came at 1900 catching everyone off guard that was expecting 2000.

      The best anyone can do is make a plan based on real time conditions and then adapt the plan as time goes by and conditions evolve.

  13. chrisG

    Wow, this AVI is really garbage. Criticized Gary, while posting he was bearish on gold in Dec 2011. Yet, his SA article clearly stated he’s a bull. Charlatan! Guess his name is Avi Hillary!

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