Super bull Plunger is calling for a straight up move to 400 on the HUI with no pullback. That would be the most extreme baby bull rally in history. I think we are going to need some corrective moves along the way. We’ll see who is right.
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Plunger was making a killing shorting gold and miners while you trying to pick a bottom.
I don’t know about Plunger but Rambus missed about 35 out of 40 short trades trying to short the bear market. And since Plunger spends his time on that site I have to wonder if he really made much money shorting during the bear.
BTW I did OK picking intermediate bottoms during the bear.
Riding a multi year bear Market is much more different then picking a few intermediate bottoms
Robo supplied me with the actual trade data for the first half of 2015. You tell me whether any money was made shorting gold like they claim.
UGLD 5-21-15 5-26-15 11.31 1000 10.89 11310.00 10890.00 -3.71 -420.00
USLV 5-15-15 5-22-15 23.26 500 21.44 11630.00 10720.00 -7.82 -910.00
USLV 5-15-15 5-21-15 23.26 1000 21.79 23260.00 21790.00 -6.32 -1470.00
UGLD 5-15-15 5-21-15 11.31 2000 11.45 22620.00 22900.00 1.24 280.00
JDST1 5-8-15 5-12-15 8.01 500 7.47 4005.00 3735.00 -6.74 -270.00
DUST 5-8-15 5-12-15 13.56 500 13.09 6780.00 6545.00 -3.47 -235.00
JDST 2 5-6-15 5-12-15 8.23 3000 7.47 24690.00 22410.00 -9.23 -2280.00
DSLV 5-6-15 5-12-15 52.77 350 53.73 18469.50 18805.50 1.82 336.00
DUST 5-6-15 5-12-15 13.74 2000 13.09 27480.00 26180.00 -4.73 -1300.00
JDST3 4-30-15 5-5-15 8.16 3000 7.48 24480.00 22440.00 -8.33 -2040.00
DUST 4-30-15 5-5-15 13.02 2000 13.02 26040.00 26040.00 0.00 0.00
DUST 4-23-15 4-27-15 14.69 500 13.57 7345.00 6785.00 -7.62 -560.00
JDST4 4-23-15 4-23-15 8.93 1000 8.93 8930.00 8930.00 0.00 0.00
JDST5 4-23-15 4-27-15 8.93 1000 8.21 8930.00 8210.00 -8.06 -720.00
JDST6 4-22-15 4-23-15 9.25 2000 8.62 18500.00 17240.00 -6.81 -1260.00
DUST 4-22-15 4-23-15 15.15 1000 14.22 15150.00 14220.00 -6.14 -930.00
GDJS 4-22-15 4-29-15 20.94 1000 19.43 20940.00 19430.00 -7.21 -1510.00
GDXS 4-22-15 4-27-15 21.38 1000 20.21 21380.00 20210.00 -5.47 -1170.00
GDXS 4-13-15 4-14-15 22.49 500 21.76 11245.00 10880.00 -3.25 -365.00
GDJS 4-13-15 4-14-15 22.17 500 21.54 11085.00 10770.00 -2.84 -315.00
JDST7 3-31-15 4-1-01-15 12.3 1859 10.15 22865.70 18868.85 -17.48 -3996.85
JDST8 3-30-15 4-1-15 12 1000 10.15 12000.00 10150.00 -15.42 -1850.00
JDST9 3-26-15 4-1-15 10.51 3000 10.15 31530.00 30450.00 -3.43 -1080.00
DUST 3-26-15 4-1-15 16.92 2500 16.18 42300.00 40450.00 -4.37 -1850.00
JNUG 3-24-15 3-26-15 22 1000 21.54 22000.00 21540.00 -2.09 -460.00
JDST10 3-13-15 3-20-15 14.56 1600 10.87 23296.00 17392.00 -25.34 -5904.00
JNUG 3-23-15 3-26-15 22 1000 21.54 22000.00 21540.00 -2.09 -460.00
JDST11 3-12-15 3-20-15 13.65 1000 10.87 13650.00 10870.00 -20.37 -2780.00
DUST 3-12-15 3-20-15 20.46 750 16.87 15345.00 12652.50 -17.55 -2692.50
JDST12 3-9-15 3-20-15 14.1 2500 10.87 35250.00 27175.00 -22.91 -8075.00
DSLV 3-9-15 3-20-15 65.09 300 57.21 19527.00 17163.00 -12.11 -2364.00
DUST 3-5-15 3-20-15 15.68 1500 16.87 23520.00 25305.00 7.59 1785.00
JDST13 2-18-15 3-2-15 9.77 1074 8.65 10492.98 9290.10 -11.46 -1202.88
JDST14 2-17-15 3-2-15 9.28 2000 8.65 18560.00 17300.00 -6.79 -1260.00
DUST 2-17-15 3-2-15 14.6 1000 13.13 14600.00 13130.00 -10.07 -1470.00
JDST15 2-11-15 3-2-15 9.22 1000 8.65 9220.00 8650.00 -6.18 -570.00
DUST 2-11-15 3-2-15 14.01 500 13.13 7005.00 6565.00 -6.28 -440.00
JDST16 2-10-15 3-2-15 8.87 1000 8.65 8870.00 8650.00 -2.48 -220.00
DUST 2-10-15 3-2-15 12.53 1000 13.13 12530.00 13130.00 4.79 600.00
DSLV 2-6-15 2-13-15 56.62 500 49.87 28310.00 24935.00 -11.92 -3375.00
JDST17 2-6-15 3-1-15 8.95 2500 8.65 22375.00 21625.00 -3.35 -750.00
DUST 2-6-15 3-2-15 13.25 2500 13.13 33125.00 32825.00 -0.91 -300.00
DSLV 2-3-15 2-5-15 51.34 500 51.23 25670.00 25615.00 -0.21 -55.00
DUST 2-3-15 2-5-15 12.65 2500 11.71 31625.00 29275.00 -7.43 -2350.00
JDST18 2-3-15 2-5-15 9 2500 7.99 22500.00 19975.00 -11.22 -2525.00
DUST 1-29-15 2-2-15 13.35 2500 11.92 33375.00 29800.00 -10.71 -3575.00
JDST19 1-29-15 2-2-15 9.15 2500 8.83 22875.00 22075.00 -3.50 -800.00
DUST 1-29-15 1-30-15 13.94 2500 12.38 34850.00 30950.00 -11.19 -3900.00
JDST20 1-29-15 1-30-15 9.64 2500 8.28 24100.00 20700.00 -14.11 -3400.00
JNUG 1-27-15 12-10-14 40.1 500 34.27 20050.00 17135.00 -14.54 -2915.00
NUGT 1-20-15 1-28-15 20.63 1000 17.55 20630.00 17550.00 -14.93 -3080.00
JNUG 1-20-15 1-28-15 44.8 500 34.27 22400.00 17135.00 -23.50 -5265.00
NUGT 1-16-15 1-28-15 18.51 2000 17.55 37020.00 35100.00 -5.19 -1920.00
USLV 1-16-15 1-28-15 26.1 750 28 19575.00 21000.00 7.28 1425.00
JNUG 1-16-15 1-28-15 41.5 500 34.27 20750.00 17135.00 -17.42 -3615.00
JDST21 1-14-15 1-15-15 9.31 2805 7.96 26114.55 22327.80 -14.50 -3786.75
JNUG 1-12-15 1-13-15 41.78 500 34.81 20890.00 17405.00 -16.68 -3485.00
DUST 1-8-15 1-12-15 18.85 1000 16.11 18850.00 16110.00 -14.54 -2740.00
JDST22 1-8-15 1-12-15 10.67 1500 8.98 16005.00 13470.00 -15.84 -2535.00
Gary, I have to give you credit for calling the bottom but Plunger did as well. Plunger was a Perma-Bear but he also called the bottom on the HUI at $100 several years ahead of time based on his exceptional chart work. This guy has studied bull and bear markets across multiple assets and his research shows that in very early stages there is little to no pull back for 9-11 months.
Examples include: 1980’s DOW Bull and several instances of earlier Gold bull runs. The USD and TLT moves in 2014 were also very strong runs where normal up trend lines were not broken to the downside.
My cycles work also shows that it is very likely that Gold has had a consolidation IC Low here at 5 months and we are now in month 6 since the early Dec 2015 Bear Market lows and several miners are making new highs while both GDX and GDXJ broke their respective downtrend lines today.
I’m not expecting a “straight up” move but my first and third chart in the link below show my current price channels.
https://goldtadise.com/?p=369543
Even the initial bull run in 2001 still suffered a 62% pullback. So I’m not sure where this data that shows no pullback is coming from. It certainly didn’t happen coming out of the the 2000 bottom or the 2008 bottom.
The initial rally pushed price 66% above the 200 DMA (similar to the 75% that we got last week. Notice it took 6 months of sideways consolidation to allow the 200 DMA to catch up to price before the next leg up could begin.
In my experience it’s pretty risky to bet against the law of regression, especially in a sector as volatile as the metals that is prone to emotional over reactions.
Even at it’s peak in March of 2015, the dollar only stretched 15% above the 200 DMA. That’s a far cry from 75%.
Gary and everyone, just forget about gold if your not already in. I don’t think its worth it to play gold anymore. If it doesnt pullback there is no point in buying here even if it goes straight up to HUI 400. This whole move in gold has been too frustrating as it is not allowing anyone a chance to buy at cheaper price but rather to chase it higher. I am turned off by gold now, manipulated on the way down and now manipulated on the way up. I will be buying XBI, WFM or WDC.
And if gold goes sideways as Gary says without correcting I still will not buy. The move is ridiculous now
Plunger is saying that there will not be a gentleman’s entry:
“A Gentleman’s Entry is a second chance to enter the market at favorable levels for those who got caught sleeping and missed the initial move”
A long sideway’s consolidation would not provide a gentleman’s entry as defined by Plunger, which means Plunger gets the burrito if that scenario occurs.
https://goldtadise.com/?p=369075
I’m going to have to call foul 🙂
I’ve been saying that price either needs to correct or trade sideways for several months. One way or another the sector needs to regress to the mean. Plunger is claiming that there won’t a regression.
Plunger called the bear market perfectly, with a PO of around 100. I can’t find the link to the article but it was a year or two before the bottom I think. When the HUI tanked to the predicted levels, Plunger then became even more bearish and changed his PO to 65 or something I believe.
At the bottom of the HUI on Jan 19, Gary was getting bullish and ready to buy.
A guy named Mike Trike was also very bullish on Jan 19, and I quote:
http://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/2016/01/chart-of-the-day-214.html#comments
mike trike
January 19, 2016 at 11:09 pm
Massive volume on NUGT again. Normal to low volume on GDX and GDXJ, SIL also normal volume. Not much of a bloodbath. More like a short attack. My Canadian miners are up again today. They tried a short attack on a few of them but buyers overwhelmed them and they gave up.
mike trike
January 19, 2016 at 11:35 pm
Unless they are pricing in another interest rate cut in Canada tomorrow and an even lower Canadian dollar? Not sure, but when the miners have tanked in the past my Canadian miners were sold off as well. Today they were strong.
From the volume in NUGT it almost looks like Miners are being smashed so NUGT can be accumulated even cheaper. To me this looks like a possible change in trend.
Boom, Trike called the bottom!
Mike, Great Call. The bigger issue in play now is to have the correct “strategy” for the right market. The 4+ year Bear Market has trained us to “Trade the Bear.” If Gold and the Miners have resumed the secular Bull as we suspect, its time to “Ride the Bull.”
5 Years from now it won’t matter if you got the best entry or not. Not saying you don’t have some trading shares to trade near IC Lows but establishing a core position is critical, IMO.
Thanks Surf, and thanks for all the hard work you and the others do over at Goldtent!
Just have to wonder if the purpose of this post is to divert attention away from the market sell off today.
Dave, I does seem that the Stock Market is heavy here and perhaps the SPX is building out a small right shoulder. I shorted BioTech with BIS today and shorted QQQ with QID.
Good trading to all.
https://goldtadise.com/?p=369523
Rambus was calling for HUI 150 in Jan 2013.
Gary what was your documented long term HUI/GDX forcast in early 2013?
This is what u posted in Jan 2013
http://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/2013/01/the-character-of-the-mining-sector-is-changing.html
I was expecting a test of the previous C-wave top as every other D-wave except one accomplished that target. Granted I didn’t start expecting that until after the attack that took out 1500 on that Sunday night.
This guy Plunger’s article is more emotional than technical, and is full of fluff and devoid of any actual or substansive investment value. So if you like jokes and humorous writing with little or no investment value then OK.
Then I turned to the site’s Home Page and as soon as I saw him positing a video by Jordan R-B, the green behind the lips permabull, I quickly clicked the “X” in the upper right corner on the whole thing.