DUST – Gold Miners Index BEAR 3X Shares
Over the next 4-6 weeks we’re about to see just how idiotic this theory about gold avoiding an ICL (Intermediate Cycle Low) will turn out to be.
This always happens at major tops and bottoms. People become stupid and all common sense goes out the window.
Like our new Facebook page to stay current on all things Smart Money Tracker
The banks are on fire today. There’s a good chance the DCL printed today or will print tomorrow. The market will not be able to sustain downward momentum with the banking sector surging.
Right on!
Yahoo shows DUST up 14.14! @ 15.43 ??
Gary: I was just thinking that you might post about the volume on DUST and/or NUGT. What’s going to be even crazier is people not getting back into gold and miners after the DCL happens just because of a 25 basis point hike (which still may not happen).
Equities look tired…mixed data there. But thinking they head south for now too.
I’m pretty sure stocks printed a daily cycle low today. If so it was an exceptionally mild one not even retracing to the 38% Fib.
DUST did a reversed split
But there was no real reason to sell any Miner position early in the Bull Cycle.
I took some very mice profits on my larger positions, (more liquid miners) right after the FMOC meeting (NEM, AEM, AG, RIC, MUX, etc.) but have held onto Spock’s Rocks (micro miners like Anfield).
I also had several “stink bids’ on some of his Rocks that got triggered. Picked up another slug of Anfield at $1.10 right near the LOD and also near the backtest of its long term breakout.
https://goldtadise.com/?p=368457
Anyone who had the common sense to ignore all this idiotic talk about sideways ICL’s or no ICL is going to get another opportunity to get back in at much lower prices in June. The bottom line is anyone who bought after listening to that nonsense is going to suffer a big drawdown, as will Old Turkey’s.
In the long run Old Turkey’s are going to make a lot of money, but I’m going to guarantee again that at least for this year, I’m going to outperform Old Turkeys even though I didn’t catch every penny of the rally. How? Because I will be able to use leverage at the next ICL, and Old Turkey’s are stuck in unleveraged funds for the next 4-5 years. They can’t sell for at least one year or they will move the trade out of the capital gains tax rate, and back into an earned income rate.
I knew when I saw the articles by Plunger, etc. that it was going to come back to bite him in the ass.
I also predict biotech will do just exactly as I called and the trolls will miss this one as well, just like they always do, because they are unable to look past the next few days. Anyone who looks at a monthly chart of biotech knows this has to be traded from the long side.
Gary, Perhaps what you say will be true but my Cycle work show very clearly that the Intermediate Cycle uptrend lines for GDX and GDXJ broke to the downside TODAY, which is why I took some very nice profits.
Most of my miner positions have more than doubled since you exited your trades back in March.
So from a Cycles standpoint, why exit the trade before the IC trend line broke to the downside? Seems you left a hefty chunk of profit on the table?
Because in real time I didn’t have the luxury of knowing how far the rally would go, and in real time the intermediate trend line did break. We just didn’t know ahead of time that the market would make higher highs and the trend line wasn’t set yet.
This is the difference between trading in real time and Monday morning quarterbacking.
I use Price Channels in real time but my channel never broke down back in March.
Absolutely, right on both.
amazing how some of the miners had a weeks worth of gains erased in 90 minutes. A lot of 10% losers today.
Very true but it did not wipe out 6 weeks of gains. Any subs who went Cold Turkey could still change their minds and take bigger profits tomorrow if they want to wait out any correction.
This is a Bull Market, however, any decline into an ICL will likely look very different than what we have been used to during the long Bear.
Wrong, wrong, wrong!!!
If you are going to go Old Turkey you can’t ever sell. Get that through your head. The only way to catch all of a rally and move the trade into the capital gains tax bracket is to buy and forget. If you start second guessing now then you will do it again and again and your Old Turkey strategy is out the window.
I am going Old Turkey on my miners. If there is a major selloff I will load up on options as I did in Dec/Jan. Most people going Old Turkey are doing so with micro-cap juniors. I will buy/sell options and positions in GDX, GDXJ, SIL etc and try to make a few bones trading. Smaller juniors don’t necessarily move with GDX and GDXJ so they are the ones to hold.
Many who read your blog aren’t Americans so all the capital gains nonsense doesn’t apply to them. Makes no difference to a Canadian like me.
You’re arch-enemy Plunger is also into micro-cap juniors so moves in GDX/J won’t necessarily effect his portfolio. GDX might be down 30% but Plunger’s portfolio might be flat or even up.
Bingo Mike, It is a hybrid strategy. Ol Turkey on the micro caps and Cycle trading on larger, more liquid big caps.
Gary, Regarding BioTech’s, you may be correct, but according to the Weinstein Stage 4 Model, the Jury is still out. Weinstein’s model, BTW, worked perfectly when I used it as one of my tools to confirm Gold’s transition to a Bull. The 30ema on the weekly is a powerful tool and right now on BioTechs it is still pointing down and providing resistance to any rallies.
Here is my chart on Gold using Weinstein’s approach to confirm the Gold Bull:
https://goldtadise.com/?p=369725
More info on Weinstein’s 4 Stage Model: (note that it shows IBB in stage 4 or Bear)
http://www.nextbigtrade.com/stage-analysis/
My gosh, that arrogance despit being wrong on gold is astounding…. You left at 1190..it got to 1308. You missed out on 120 dollars which is A LOT!
Surf
You was amazingly right about ZLTQ.. hitting low 23.6..
Where do you see it go now? back at least to the 200ma 27’ish?
I’ll take another look as my initial thoughts on where it might find support were based on just a couple of minutes looking at it in stock charts with some trend line and the Fib tool. Seems it hit one of the key lines I spotted right near the 62% retrace. 😉
Kupqaz, Much depends here on the 7 Year SPX Cycle. If Gary is correct, then you should expect new highs later this year. The Stage 4 site I mentioned above, however, shows ZLTQ to be in Stage 4 or Bear. With this in mind, you should consider getting out near either the 150ma or the 200ma.
The downtrend line out of the top should come in around 28.50ish if you want to push your luck on something Weinstein considers a Stage 4 Bear stock.
http://www.nextbigtrade.com/stage-analysis/
Surf,
” Much depends here on the 7 Year SPX Cycle. If Gary is correct, then you should expect new highs later this year”
This is even its a stage 4 bear, correct?
In other wards, if the indexes are for sure no more in a 4 stage bear, it will take out all the 4 stage bears with it, correct?
Kupqaz, too some extent that is true but not always. In general, however, “a rising tide will lift all boats.” In a Bear Market, however, even the best stocks often get hammered as the panic selling just gets silly as investors throw out the baby with the bathwater, so to speak. Best, Surf
Thanks again.
This is by far the MOST INCOMPETENT, CLUMSY, WEAK, DISGRACEFUL, and STUPID FED EVER in US HISTORY.
She and her “committee” make me SICK.
This Fed is just an abomination.
Gary, you’re been calling for a dcl for 3 weeks.
at what point would you give up on calling? What if we make a low in June instead of a high?
For intermediate cycles to work reliably, major shifts in sentiment need to occur. Generally, the best risk/reward trade happens at sentiment extremes. Once the ‘market’ is convinced the Fed will raise rates multiple times this year starting in June, the dollar strengthens accordingly, and gold has had its chance to punish the chasers, it’ll be time to buy again. June seems like the right timeframe.