Time to hedge metals positions. Here’s why:
So far gold has done exactly as I predicted. The minute the dollar bottomed, gold topped. I think this is a good time for Old Turkeys to place a hedge on their metals positions.
Gold needs to break the daily cycle uptrend line to confirm the daily cycle decline has begun. It should do that this week as the Euro starts to accelerate down into its own daily cycle low.
I don’t expect a top in the dollar / bottom in the Euro until after the Brexit vote. So look for gold to finish its intermediate decline around that time.
Silver is not in a bull flag like some are suggesting is developing in gold. It appears to be leading the metals down into an intermediate degree correction.
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The intermedaite trend line in the euro stands at around 1.11. That’s probably a likely target for the euro to finish its DCL. Then there should be a bounce followed by one more failed daily cycle into a final ICL around the Brexit. The final ICL should reach somewhere around 1.06 – 1.08.
Your preview is a plunge of 5% in 4 weeks?
I have no idea where the ICL will occur at.
Why?
You touted that gold did exactly as you predicted. Why can’t predict where the DCL will occur?
I predict by the end of the Dave Dave will continue pontificating about the past. As we all know Dave offers us his calls in real time and is NEVER wrong… we are not worthy.
Cycles aren’t useful for predicting targets, only timing bands for a low.
Dave is a Troll .. he never has anything constructive to say .. Gary has lots more patience then I do putting up with jerks like Dave!
In EW terms I am waiting for a clear end to the B-wave. I want sub1200 for Gold and 15.70ish for Silver by mid summer.
When the C-wave kicks in later this year we should see some real fireworks imo, watch out !
C-Wave going into 2017:
GOLD: 1450-1550 by mid 2017
SILVER: 25-30 by mid 2017
I will soon be released from my golden prison, a signed deal from the ministry of Quebec and I am in a profitable heaven 🙂
+700% since last summer: http://www.stockhouse.com/companies/quote/v.gbb/gold-bullion-development-corp
How stupid do the trolls look now who told me LABU was dead? 🙂
Just another “I told you so” for the books.
You would think these people would eventually learn. I mean seriously, how many times can one stick their foot in their mouth before they finally figure it out?
The semis are on fire and should lead the market out of the DCL.
Cheech and Chong: “Dave’s not here.”
NDX is knocking on the MAs and recent resistance. If cleared, its a double bottom. Maybe it could proceed to make and ABCD to target 5000?? WHo knows?
GAry,
This may be a repeat question but worth revisiting now>>> Oil: Would the same factors affection gold down, i.e., rising rates and USD, also affect oil down now?
I don’t think so. Oil should just follow the stock market and I think stocks are going up.
Oil also has a brewing supply problem. The market is already startign to sniff it out. By later in the summer the glut will be gone and in it’s place we will have tight supplies.
Gary,
Gold: would you recommend increase from 200 shares to more now on DUST as a hedge?
Absolutely not. DUST is only a hedge for an Old Turkey long position, nothing more.
We are not going to try to short a baby bull. There are easier ways to make money. LABU for instance.
Got You Gary Thank you for both replies; Appreciate it. Solid as always.
“Before we get started, just two quick charts to shut the mouths of all those proclaiming this is a hated rally and that sentiment is shitty… it’s not!
Net speculative positioning for S&P 500 futures is at its highest since Feb 2015 as the major short position of the last few months has been unwound off the February lows…
And speculative shorts in VIX (bullish stocks) are at 3 year highs…”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-05-23/equities-coil-despite-usdjpy-turmoil-bullish-stock-speculators-hit-16-month-highs
Gary, you might want to save that smugness about the Biotechs until IBB has actually made higher high. I am not saying that it won’t but there is no need to call people trolls because they dare to challenge your ‘expert’ analysis.
Here is a fact concerning the Biotechs and one of your past calls: On April 1, you wrote “You’ve got a very rare opportunity to get on board right at the bottom as the next leg of the biotech bull is beginning.” At the time, IBB was at 268.31 which was ABOVE today’s close of 266.03. In other words, in seven weeks, the biotechs have essentially gone no where. Granted, IBB did go up to 287.77 on April 7 but then it dropped as low as 248.90 on May 12. Sure, a few lucky day traders might have made a few buck s but those who have bought and held have not made a dime!
The trolls may not be as “stupid” ” as you think.
As you know I have no problem with people disagreeing with me. A civil debate is always welcome here.
But we can all recognize a troll. They never fail to materialize if I don’t time every call down to the minute… and then they disappear again when my calls turn out to be correct.
I’m going to be correct on biotech. By this time next year anyone who bought in this zone will have made huge gains. Unfortunately most people think like you do, and if the trade doesn’t pan out immediately you write it off and then miss the move when it comes.
Trading is about patience. Most people have none…and that’s why they never make any money.
Gary will be right on biotech. Obv has been under heavy accumulation, big money has been buying. It should make new highs pretty soon
The COT’s aren’t a proxy for sentiment.
FWIW the commercial COT level in the NDX contract (the most useful for short term timing) is at roughly the same level as the bottom in February.
I would be a bit embarrassed to post anything from zerohedge. It’s nothing more than a conspiracy site and permanently slanted towards the end of the world. Not really something that is going to help one make money.
“I would be a bit embarrassed to post anything from zerohedge”
It’s not an opinion article. It is entirely charts and facts. I would bet that most people who read your blog also read zerohedge.
First off let’s examine that article. Keep in mind that positions in the VIX can mean all kinds of things. They could be hedges for all we know. But let’s just look at recent history.
In late 2012 the VIX position spiked to similar levels. Did that mean stocks were about to drop?
I think we all know the answer to that. 2013 was one of the most positive years in the last decade. Then again in August of 2013 the VIX reached similar levels as this week. Again it was anything but a bad omen as stocks continued to power higher for another 14 months.
So I have to wonder what they are trying to suggest with this article, because based on history this is anything but a negative sign for stocks. In fact it looks like this is an incredibly bullish signal over the medium term.
Over the long term I can’t find any correlation with VIX positions in the COT and future stock returns. This thing is just all over the place. Some times low positions coincide with tops and sometimes bottoms. IMO completely useless for anticipating stock market direction.
USX hesitation induces stocks’ hesitation.
USX’ dive in DC decline these days will help stocks surge in their quick dead cat bounce – exactly the kind of action stocks’ Bear needs to recharge.
The ROBO ratio is almost at a 12 year extreme. When dumb money retail traders get this bearish it invariably leads to a nice rally. If you are bearish right now you might want to look in the mirror and decide if you are the chump sitting at the poker table, and about to get fleeced by the big boys.
Would a lower low this week make you rethink the possibility of a failed DC?
First the market has to break the cycle down trend line to confirm the DCL. Then if we make a lower low then yes I will be wrong and the intermediate cycle would have topped.
Wait.. So if we tend down for the next 2 weeks, it would still be classify as a potential DCL? Aren’t we way past the period for a DCL?
This is the time for swinger traders to buy a low-risk, low-weight gold position: stop loss at 1234 and profit target 1285 by Friday.
Friday’s GDP report and Yellen speech will be the catalyst for USX rise and for fall resumption both in gold and stocks.
There is another catalyst you failed to mention the June 2 OPEC Meeting , yes not to many people aware of that one.
All we can do is laugh Gary…oh and told you so lol
Different this time my ass lol