We have confirmation: The bull market in the dollar is over

The bull market in the dollar is over.

Just like I warned the dollar has signaled another failed intermediate cycle. There’s no longer any question. The deflationary, dollar to 120, scenario is out the window. Just like I predicted there was never any real chance of that happening to begin with. When will these guys stop living in the past and realize we aren’t going to make the same mistake again that we did in 2008.

The risk was never deflation, it was always inflation.

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18 thoughts on “We have confirmation: The bull market in the dollar is over

  1. muskie032

    With the bull market over in the dollar over, what kind of bounce do you expect in the dollar before it rolls over and dies? 98 tops?

  2. jhmoffett

    Gary — good update, thx. With the DCL occurring today in stocks, sounds like it’s time to move back into stocks, at least partially?

  3. muskie032

    Hey Gary do you think the break out in the Euro today is a head fake and will turn back down right away?

  4. Surf City

    Gary, I 100% agree that the 3 year (and perhaps the 15 year) cycle in the USD has topped. Nearer term, however, the ICL picture is a bit cloudy to me. The last confirmed ICL for the USD was August 2015. Looking at the charts, it sure looks like we had another one in mid Feb with that wicked drop below the IC uptrend line. That was right near the 6 month timeframe where we would see an ICL. If it was an ICL, then the bounce here may be a Daily Cycle bounce with the next USD ICL “possibly” sometime this summer.

    If you look at a 40 year chart, one thing that is clear is how quickly the USD can fall once the 15 yer cycle has topped. Witness the drops that started in 1986 and 2002 which are the last two 15 year tops that I have.

    Here are some charts that show a “potential” ICL for the USD in mid-Feb:



      1. Surf City

        Gary, With all due respect, trend line breaks are the norm but there are exceptions. During the down turn of Gold in Oct 2012, out of its secondary top, I show Intermediate Cycles where the Gold Price did not test, let alone break, the IC downtrend line. The point being that new ICs can occur without a break, especially if the asset is in a bearish phase.

          1. Surf City

            I understand perfectly but you stopped one trend line short. Now draw the next IC downtrend from Nov 2012 and show me where it gets broken to signal a new IC? That line is not broken until March 2014 almost 1.6 years later.

            So there is your example and there are others. I have also shown where the USD in its uptrend in 2014, on two occasions, never broke below the IC uptrend to confirm an ICL. There are exceptions within Cycles to the trend line rules.

          2. Gary Post author

            Those are when the clearly recognizable rule comes into play.

            All ICL’s should be clearly recognizable on a long term chart. The bottom in February doesn’t look like a true ICL.

            The move down right now however does quailfy. We are clearly in a bloodbath phase right now. At most the dollar may make it back to the 89-90 level over the next couple of days. But that will be a final ICL, not the middle of a new cycle.

            The euro has to fall as we approach the Brexit. So once the dollar puts in the ICL then traders are going to start bringing the euro back down ahead of the June 23 vote. We will then have a panic in the euro in late June that will form the ICL in the euro.

  5. tulip

    Gary Post author
    May 2, 2016 at 11:47 am
    A bubble phase will take at least 2-3 years to develop but we started it at the Feb. bottom.

    TO DEVELOP…. you said for weeks it was developing Gary… and would continue for 2- 3 yrs..
    Now— you are singing a very different tune.
    This is very ambivalent….WHERE DOES the bubble start…????????

    1. barney

      Tulip, come on Gary has been total consistent stating the bottom is in. Gary does not have a crystal ball that tells the future but has to workout from his knowledge and experience what is most PROBABLE.

      For me the lows are in for this year. This is within the bull market of your life, that from 2009 people have been calling for to fail. I don’t think I will get a chance like this this one again.

      Where I differ from Gary is that I think a corrections is a head at some point (may retest the highs before ) .

      Gary’s strength is that he states what he thinks is happening unlike others that just seem to hedge their bets…

      for example Clive Maud has went from the “get the body bags out” to maybe it will go up or maybe down:

      The key here is that you can never challenge Clive Maud as there is no blog (he has been a good read at times I should add).

      I am shorting the s&P 3x but have hedged at the top. Fed can do what they want.

      The number of post here that run Gary down or are just plain rude is unbelievable .

      If you disagree just state that. Or state a source that helps us all.

      anyway best of luck to you Tulip

  6. zbigkid

    Traders are the most bullish they have been in 2016, today. Options tell the story. Sentiment isn’t worth squat.

    Just sayin’ anyone long stocks, is gonna take it up the you know what. Any day now.

    If you think its good to be long, if the dollar drops, you’ve been missing whats happening.

    Also, traders are the most bearish they’ve been on bonds YTD 2016.

    Long Gold
    Long TLT
    Anything else is where the majority is. The majority is NOT where you want to be, in this current market. The majority was wrong before the tankage in early 2016. They are wrong again now. Big time.

    1. Gary Post author

      Actually that isn’t correct. small traders are still excessively bearish based on options data. Most retail traders think like you do that we’ve started another bear market. Intermediate cycles just don’t top with the dumb money on the correct side of the market.

      Also the stock:bond ratio is nowhere close to levels that indicate excessive optimism about stocks.

      You really need to buy a subscription to sentimentrader.com so you can get actual sentiment data instead of extrapolating it from your bias.

      As I pointed out in my last vid, sentiment on the gold sector is at 96% bulls. This is what happens when something rallies 140%. Everyone gets bullish and their emotions tell them it’s just going to continue higher indefinitely.

      It never does.

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