Gold COT’s and sentiment levels suggest one thing – traders you don’t have to chase, you will get a better opportunity. Traders already long should trail a stop. Old Turkey’s just ignore the market for the next 4-5 years.
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reading ker just now…. totally in lala land over there.
They diss anyone who has an opposing view….. ban those individuals…
inc Zero Hedge… and poor doc postma is repeating what was on KWN this morinng i.e. Arnott…
zero hedge just reported on charles schwab…and I trust postma will read that before tomorrow am.
He sounds lost.
The name of the game is patience. It’s a lack of patience and discipline which leads to all this needless chasing. It’s interesting how folks start coming with up with new theories of how they think is happening in the market as prices rise or fall.
I only look at the COT structure for Gold and Silver and use Larry Williams methodology. Extreme positions in the last 3-5 years indicate a reversal soon – that ‘soon’ could be a few weeks or more, there is nothing else to this. I have a job and don’t look at prices 24×7. For me this is perfect. One look at the present COT in metals indicates only one thing – a massacre is around the corner. Ya it might be delayed but it’s coming nonetheless. This time a gold beating will be painful the – the disconnect between COTS and price is too much. This is not the time to go long – that time was in Dec of last year as the COTS illustrated quite aptly – I am pretty sure lots of folks missed that too.
The current situation presents a excellent opportunity to short the metals.
HHJ, thanks for you post. I will look up the Larry Williams Methodology.
I agree patience and discipline.
IMO the bottom is in for Gold but that does not mean we will not see volatility through 2016 (I am looking for 2017 for a take off). Gold could quite easily retest the lows but IMO will end the year up over all.
What everyone should repeat to themselves at night and first thing in the morning is:
“The Banksters are still in charge”
No change there. and until there is gold can be any price they want.
What I am aware of is that there has not been a washout-capitulation event in gold. Now you can do this by price, ie taking gold to $800-600 but the problem for the banksters is that china and Russia will just back up the truck and take the lot.
The other way to get the washout-capitulation event is with volatility. Take it right up so everyone feels elated and jumping in with both feet, then bang take it down back to the lows for weeks/ months and let them give up and jack it in forever.
Repeat this as many times as needed and once more for good measure. That is how the banksters can get their washout event without handing over gold at $600 to china.
I’m 3x short gold and miners right now.
Gary is right everything is manipulated: for goodness sakes DB just came out last week. Its not called the London Gold Fix for nothing.
3 weeks ago I tried selling my Alexco AXU shares for $1.09
Only got a partial fill; so I got stubborn and held out for $1.25 on the rest. Sell order was filled on Friday.
Now that I’m out, it should clear the way for a nice move up without me. No worries though; I learned my lesson on watching profits evaporate in the dot com boom and bust.
Still waiting on a decent pull-back to buy more Franco Nevada FNV.
One thing to watch this week is the volume on DUST. it it explodes to over 150% more than any other time in history that would be a strong sign that the miners have topped.
NUGT = $128.00 premarket. Out at $64.00 = Stupid me! Will we get a chance to buy it back below $64.00??
Yes. The miners are going to make this run all over again, but the next time the move will be sustainable.
Miners continue to rocket higher, thinking about doing some trimming here because it’s too far too fast. I might sell as little as a quarter of holdings, but certainly no more than half, other half is for Old Turkey gobble gobble.
I’m off to the gym to think about it, helps clear the thought process.
Gary, are you just entered metals?
It’s not what you think. See the morning update.
Great video presentation Gary.
The dollar has broken the August low. We now have definitive proof that the dollar to 120 bulls are 180 degrees wrong. The 3 year cycle in the dollar has topped just like I’ve been warning. That being said don’t expect any follow through to the downside right here. That will come during the next intermediate cycle.
“I agree with everything everyone says, But-The-Fact-Of-The-Matter-Is, I don’t know shite”.
Phoo King-Fleck is sure an annoying little dweeb.
Gary, do you have any cycle lows due in biotech ? Looks like sector should turn back up soon.
It should more or less follow the stock market.
Gary,
Can you please clarify again..
You expect the Dow to correct & then enter
the Bubble phase at the end of this yr..??
Time wise I am quite confused..
thanks
A bubble phase will take at least 2-3 years to develop but we started it at the Feb. bottom.
So- when do you expect a stretch to the down side & when do you expect the beginning of the bubble phase..
Thanks
Gary Post author
May 1, 2016 at 3:31 am
I believe the bear cycle ended in February. The Dow is already making higher highs as is the advance decline line. It won’t be long before all the other indexes are also making higher highs, and new all-time highs. Although I have my doubts about a sustained breakout this year. The PPT didn’t allow the market to fully express the 7 YCL and test the 1550 level so we didn’t get the full stretch to the downside we needed to generate the fuel necessary for a breakout and run this year.