78 thoughts on “GUARANTEE

  1. Gary Post author

    I especially like the energy sector at the moment as oil is breaking out of its half cycle low consolidation zone. At a bare minimum the energy stocks should test the next resistance zone over the next month.

  2. shine07

    Inverted Head and Shoulders figure – I will post an image on “morning report”.

  3. Frederic Degembe

    IBB candle Wednesday erased any bullishness to bounce it had Monday. Now neutral to bearish short term.

    1. Gary Post author

      We have all the indications that a major bottom is forming. Constant bombardment of negative news and a long drawn out consolidation. Just exactly like the energy sector 3 months ago.

  4. Dave

    What is the fascination with being right and making these rediculus garrentees?

    There are NO garrentees is this business.

    I guess it all boils down to marketing.

  5. Joseph69

    I shouldn’t have bought back the LABU position. Back down another 10% from my 25.64 entry.

  6. Gary Post author

    I’m just watching the dollar. If it makes an undercut low then I think stocks have one more washout next week to the 38% Fib. That would push the NYMO down to -60 or lower and that should produce a more sustained rally.

    1. Joseph69

      One washout below 2040 on spx and then you expect it to rally 100 points in the next 4 weeks to new highs?

  7. Joseph69

    I don’t want to be disrespectful, but who gives a rats ass about the 300 bucks in annual membership.
    I have a LABU position that is already down 35k from my entry at 35 bucks. That’s 100 years of annual sub. Would had been a lot more if I didn’t sell at 27.5 and got back in at 25.6.

    1. itsinthedna


      I’m not defending Gary here but anyone playing with those leverage ETFs is gambling. Trading is speculation be it stocks, ETFs or whatever but leverage ETFs in my opinion is flat out gambling.

      That being said, we have a non political candidate leading in the Presidential polls. He wants to eliminate the trade deficit and enact fiscal policy over monetary policy. And in a nutshell wants to completely transform the way our government has operated since the 1960s. If this doesn’t create volatility in the market, then nothing will. Being on the sidelines or slightly hedged to the downside is the most prudent choice for investors and traders.

    2. Gary Post author

      Heck we were down much more than that in energy 3 months ago. Everyone was freaking out and telling me how wrong I was. Now look at it.

        1. kupqaz

          I disagree with the assumption that AAPL may drag the market down, yes, its hurting their suppliers but not the SM anymore, the big money is already out from AAPL, into AMZN FB GOOG and more. tech is involving, JMHO.

  8. Anthonyo


    Is it possible we may be going for a double bottom DCL in SPX again like it happened in mid-Jan to Mid-Feb , before it rocketed up again?

  9. andballstoyou

    Gary is gonna be refunding a lot of money.
    But what you guys do not get is that this is a no lose situation for him.
    Heads (he is correct) and 500 additional subscribers…voila…additional $100,000.
    Tails he is wrong and he loses….get this $0000000000000000000000
    I would make these kind of bets all my life.

    1. bill

      That’s called freedoms of choice and Gary dies not twist arms. Gary is also a wise busses man, don’t be jealous start your own…if you can.

  10. andballstoyou

    A real ballsy bet would be that if he was wrong to double refund all subscribers…i.e. LOSE $100,000.
    Ah well….most people don’t have my intellect so it is easy to miss.

      1. andballstoyou

        I am referring to anyone who subscribes because of this money back offer.
        If that is not you…well good for you 🙂 !

  11. andballstoyou

    Some would argue, that he is selling a subscription. Well once you reach a certain number of subscribers, your marginal cost on each additional subscriber is about $0.
    He is going to write that newsletter regardless of whether he gets another 50 or 500 subscribers but by making this bet he will induce many more to sign up than otherwise would.
    If he is right, great, additional money…wrong ha too bad..he did not lose anything.

    In fact he could run another newsletter site with the name Gary Docile and make the exact OPPOSITE guarantee. The SPY WILL break the DCL. In this case he is GUARANTEED $100,000 (assuming 500 subscribers), how fucking cool is that?

  12. Dave

    Well I’ll I can say is what u said a few years ago when u said GDX was going to the moon.

    July 6, 2014 at 10:21 PM
    It’s going to be with extreme pleasure when I make you eat those words over the next 2-3 years.

  13. smtsalt16

    So what’s with all the personal attacks against Gary?This is the market and how it moves, there are no guarantees.You make the trades with your money and have to take responsibility for them. He is the only one I know who gives real time recommendations about the markets. They are recommendations, not guarantees. No one does that.This is the best site I’ve found for insight into the markets.

    1. andballstoyou

      Hey I was just pointing out that Gary has a no lose situation. That is not a personal attack.
      I am envious that he is able to convince masses to enter into what is essentially a win-no lose situation for him.

  14. OReally

    I’ve been investing (gambling) for over 30 years. I’ve learned more from Gary than everyone else combined. I’m currently holding 1000 shares of NUGT (old turkey). This is my (our) retirement money. All I want is $1,000,000.00 in the bank and then I’ll sell. Will I blame Gary if I lose it all? Hell no!

    Like Gerry Garcia said, ” All that I am asking for is ten gold dollars and I could pay you back with one good hand, come to daddy on the inside straight, cause I got no chance of losing this time”.

    1. andballstoyou

      NUGT will go to zero (almost…gonna say down 90%) in 1 year.
      One 20% down lose 65%. 60% actual plus decay
      10% up gain 9% of original. Then down down 20%. Lose another 70%.

    2. Surf City

      OReally, be careful on NUGT or any 3x instrument “longer term” as they are primarily trading vehicles, IMO.

      To get the 3x boost short term, they load up with leverage and derivatives which lead to price “decay” over time.

      Something like Newmont which is a low cost producer will start raising its dividend over time and would be safer in an IRA over the long term. I would never advise anyone to hold a 3x vehicle longer than a few months. JMHO.

  15. Anthonyo

    People with attitude to give need not hang around and be dark and bitter here. Be gone hater.

    1. Don

      Contrary opinions (attitude?) are a welcome addition for serious investors unless, of course, all you want to hear is what supports your own views.

    1. Dave


      You MUST cut losses fast with 3x because small losses can turn into huge losses very fast.

    1. Don

      If I may interject, Gary has been pounding the table trying to get folks into the biotechs so I presume that these pullbacks would be buying opportunities. Personally, that is the one sector I would avoid. I still like silver and natural gas.

    1. Don

      Joseph, I have had some success with short term trading of single leveraged funds but it’s much tougher with the triple leveraged because they go down MUCH quicker than they go up (structured to decay). Going for a piss can be costly when trading leveraged funds. I should mention that after making some calls to various brokerage firms, I learned that many will not allow shorting of triple leveraged etfs and those that do, want 3X the margin! It would seem that the built in decay is for the benefit of the ETF sponsors and those who can afford to short them with 3X margin.

    2. Joseph69

      Got out at 23.50 and made some back.
      I can’t stomach this. I’m done with this thing.

    3. mike trike

      Way to go Joseph. I bought some LABU today as well but not near the lows. Hopefully it has bottomed. If not I have another bid in at a lower price.

  16. Surf City

    I added to my BioTech short BIS position and my QID short QQQ position this morning.

    Also picked up some June APPL PUTS.

      1. Surf City

        My chart work and cycles work shows me that this downturn may just be getting started and that we may be moving into the next IC Low. I am seeing a 5 month pattern since Aug 2015 to Jan 2016 and 5 months from Jan gives me the June/July timeframe for the next IC Low.

        Will it be a higher low or a lower low is the key question? I am very open to being wrong but my chart work show little evidence that the 7 year low in Stocks is behind us. The price channels I am following (first link) look ugly and until they are broken, the trend is down.

        As always, my chart work will guide me. Good trading to all. 🙂



        1. kupqaz

          can you please give me a idea where ZLTQ may find a short term bottom, and to which level can it rebound?

          1. Surf City

            Kupqaz, Boy that is a tough one as they just disappointed the Street with their earnings release. Looks like you have exceeded the 50% retrace thus far out of the Feb low so the 62% comes in around 23.50 or so. Looks like there is support near there from uptrend pivots out of Feb as well.

            Much also depends on the broader market here. If Gary is correct and the DCL is near, it should start to move up with the broader market. One of my possible Daily Cycle counts is different than Gary’s, however, and has the SPX on day 25 struggling to break the downtrend line out of the Apr 20th top (so far).

            If my alternate count is the correct one, then the broader market looks like it may be ready to roll over. Again, the downtrend line out of Apr 20 is key. Above that line is bullish, below it is bearish, IMO.

          2. kupqaz

            Thanks Surf,
            Yea, I hope for a rebound tomorrow, it was a tiny miss on margins, actually beating revenue, raising revenue guidance, meeting EPS bot they used to beat EPS as well, anyways its a very strong fundamental company. I forgot to sell before the earnings release.. a lot of short sellers there,
            I ride it since 20, I can not understand how stupid I was by not selling at 31..

          3. Surf City

            Hi Kupqaz, Funny thing about Cycle. I think that Charles Nenner has said it best. Two examples using IBM (or any stock). IBM has a blow out quarter beating expectations. In scenario 1 we are in a cycle low so the stock goes up and the news is “IBM rallies big on blow out earnings.” In scenario 2 we are near a Cycle Top with the same type of earning and the price drops. The new byte is “Investors take profits on IBM’s blow out earnings.”

            The point being that it is the point in the Cycle that “frames the news” not the earnings. Best, Surf

          4. kupqaz

            Mack’s sense, I guess ZLTQ related to the medical stocks, IBB etc, hopefully IBB XBI moving up tom.. so it may get a lift,
            Very interesting charts, I hope your first scenario/Gary’s will materialize tomorrow, it will save me a lot pain..

  17. Surf City

    Another of my small miners, Anfield Nickel (ANCKF), just changed its name to Anfield Gold and it is up 36% today. Guess that is all you need to do.

    Here is a chart on the breakout today. Note the breakout and backtest yesterday on high volume and then today, BOOM. Classic Edwards and MaGee stuff.


  18. Joseph69

    Transport collapsing.
    Rut already below 50 Dma.
    Spx just broke the 50…

    A breakdown in opex next week will catch a lot of folks on the wrong side.

  19. Alexandru Popovici

    so much for the 7YCL-left-behind idea.
    the market has begun to unveil its bearish face: all the upside we’ve had has been no more than an expected big dead-cat bounce of an YC advance that now is revealed by Hong Kong’s $HSI, by Transports by biotechs’ and by NASDAQ’s leading worldwide stocks’ YC decline through failed daily cycles.

    despite that, I think the market should have a breather next week as treasuries are due to fall into their DC decline.
    on the other hand, the overall picture is dismall for commodities and stocks as cast by teasuries: they produced an YCL in April and they are now early in their YC advance!

    1. tfinavia

      Alex, I have TLT and IEF both showing bullish with higher price targets. So, it seems we will have rocky summer in stocks and commodities. However, I am wondering what are your projections post July for stocks and commodities with respect to treasury rallies? Thanks!

      1. Alexandru Popovici

        As i’ve stated since JAN8 when NYSE decisevely broke its 200Wma, I am very bearish on stocks.
        Likewise, in FEB I drew attention to a BIG UN-SHORTABLE DEAD CAT BOUNCE ready to unfold for about 5 weeks (it proved longer though, 11weeks to YCH in April) becaue of two reasons:
        – the prior YC had extended for too long (since OCT2014) and it needed to finish so that a fresh YC advance was to ensue in its aftermath and
        – all mean retracements after a 200Wma breakdown of NYSE have been violent on the upside.

        Now I expect this YC in stocks to be shortened –> YCL in SEP/OCT which will also be the 7YCL.
        But I think stated that expectation of an autumn completion back in FEB as well.

        As to commodities –> weakness will be fantastic after a bull trap to come next week as treasuries fall into their DC decline (crude at 49 is in the books for a nice ICH).
        I do not know though if oil will be able to break below 26 though…

        Thus, all in all, my expectation since FEB has reamained unchanged.
        So, be prepared for an UNtradeable up week before the summer ordeal to start quickly!

    2. Surf City

      Armstrong is saying the DOW will have a bearish reversal if we close below 17,568. We are at 17,550 now.

      My SPX Cycle work also shows that we may have had a DCL on day 38 back in early April. If so, it was mild but also within the normal timing band.

      If that alternate count scenario is correct, we are very close to a failed Daily Cycle here. The line in the sand under that alternative scenario is near SPX 2030.


    1. Alexandru Popovici

      yeap, Don.
      But one more short leg on the upside before the big fall through summer till fall

  20. Joseph69

    Sold all my Labu again at the close for 1.5 gain.
    Can’t stomach these moves anymore.

    Everything is below the 50 again.

  21. Joseph69

    Where’s Stevie and his 300% SSO trade? Wasn’t that week the highs for the year?

  22. Dave

    Gary is going to say that this is rhe time to buy when everyone is freaking out. This is a normal DCL. IBB was up today!!

    1. Surf City

      Can someone help me understand the cycle buy strategy on IBB or LABU? Sure we had what could have been “swing low” earlier in May but it was not. Rather, that mini rally could also have been the first pivot to establish the down trend line out of the top.

      If BioTechs are going to make new all time highs here, why not take the safer road and wait until you break the down trend line? Would that not normally be the trading approach from a Cycle standpoint would it not?

  23. Joseph

    Futures brk 2046 but for my personal counts every trader was looking for 2046-2048 to Brk….for me it needs to surpass 4-6 pts…..so 2040 needs to brk to resort. Went long at close and will sell at 2070 Apx
    We’re going up into May 16 then down into May 18
    Will rally up last week of MAY

    Personal note I’ve said a few times but do t post much
    SELL 3X ETFs every week or a majority of them.Close positions weekly and re-enter. Just like future contracts……. dont over hold unless the trend is really clear or Your GlodmanSachs.

    I’m shocked and saddened to hear many are holding these 3x or 2x ETFs for weeks at a time
    To be respectful, Your Wrong !!
    Dont do this or parcel down the holdings but markets are to volatile…….

  24. Steffmeister

    What happened in year 2000 before George w Bush was elected? What happened in year 2008 before Obama was elected? What will happen before Hillary Trump or Donald Clinton is elected this year?

    Is there an eight year presidential cycle lurking in the woodwork here ?

    So far my Spx prediction is playing out according to plan.:-)

  25. victor

    Alex, where have you been my friend? Are you enjoying playing with your baby boy? he’s 3 month now…
    so, USX in advance to it’s YC end of May then decline into September/October? Where do you see gold? Do you still think they rise interest rate? Thanks Alex, glad to see you again…

    1. Alexandru Popovici

      Good morning, dear Victor!
      yes, indeed, enjoying my time with the family 🙂
      tomorrow we’ll baptize our boy and today the ceremony and party of the 25-year marriage of some friends.

      yes, indeed, Victor, I think USX will advance and gold down just as Gary thinks.
      No interest rate hikes because of turmoil to come out of Japan and China; Hang Seng and Nikkei are discounting something…Japanese elections in June may be the top of the iceberg, the first domino pebble to fall and to entail the domino effect.

      USX should rise through this period since it is in inverse correlation with stocks for a couple of months and because Far East troubles will cast a lot of deflationary fears and flight to the quality of USX and of treasuries (which by the way, technically, they are early in their YC).

      Have a great weekend my Canadian fellow!

  26. Roadster

    That rounded/domed top sure looks to still be in place on the S&p500, dow….. ans well all US markets. S&p500 dropping below 50dma this week, on the weekly candles would you say it looks bullish? RSI/mac d looks like another fall to the 1800 area, just by looking at the chart, forget 7 year cycles, use your eyes. Respect to you for offering a refund if the S&P500 doesn’t make new highs by mid June. I wouldn’t discount that possibility, but yesterday sure reduced the chances of that happening. Also Dollar breakout looking good, comms down and look at Dr Copper, looks terrible. Also Brazil, Chinese markets, Brexit, ………

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