I think there is a good chance yesterday’s FOMC minutes were the trigger for the stock market’s daily cycle to bottom.
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I think there is a good chance yesterday’s FOMC minutes were the trigger for the stock market’s daily cycle to bottom.
Like our new Facebook page to stay current on all things Smart Money Tracker
The market needs to break the cycle down trend line before we have confirmation of the cycle low. We’ll see how the rest of the week plays out, but it’s going to need to get above roughly 2075.
If you did your homework you would have realized that DUST splits tomorrow 1 for 10.
http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/direxion-announces-reverse-splits-of-two-leveraged-etfs-300252506.html
The reverse split already happened and the volume has been adjusted for the split.
Split today.
Here is a split adjust chart. Take a look a the volume bar.
Not so HUGE
http://schrts.co/VxnK4u
your chart is “unadjusted” Dave. Gary’s should be correct.
volume on GDX and GDXJ today was highest for 2016 today as well.
Correct. Dave your chart is unadjusted. yesterday’s volume was for shares that were priced at $1.50. Todays volume was much lower as the shares jumped to $15 today.
The chart I used in the vid is the adjusted chart. It shows the true volume change from yesterday to today and takes into account the reverse split. The huge volume is money recognizing that a top probably occurred and hedges are being placed.
Super Dave doesn’t know the difference between “adjusted” and “unadjusted” charts.
What a freakin’ door knob.
And yet Dave speaks about Garys credibility, the hypocrisy it burns…
Nice work Gary and thanks
I second that one also. Dave you need to “ZIP IT” because it’s obvious you are out of your league when compared to Gary so don’t even bother. You just wasting everyone’s time and you make yourself look like a rookie.
You must be new here musty.
I suggest you do a little research a his long term calls. Its like long term weather calls.
I will give him credit on short term calls.
Nobody on earth can predict 4-5 years out.
Be that as it may your wind bag BS has run its course and your continued petulance of bringing up something 4 years or older is childish and boring…
Swing high in crude oil.
I googled T-1 theory to learn more about it and this post from Gary in 2013 came up in which he called for an SPX top in 2013 at the 2007 highs(around 1550-1600) followed by a huge plunge and also called for a move up in Gold to $3200. Yes, hindsight is 20/20.
http://smartmoneytracker.blogspot.com/2013/02/major-top-in-stocks-major-low-in-gold.html
Without QE I wonder what gold might now be worth……….fin system collapse (??)…………gold could be worth 3x that.
sorry, i was meaning to imply that Gary was probably around the mark, but for QE
I realize that’s his trick.
Make many calls within a timeline and then point back and go.. See I made that call and I’m always right.
His subs are getting slaughtered.
well, at least Gary got it right back then in terms of timing: stocks bottom in 2016 and it will be a bottom in the autumn to come.
Gary omitted there one important aspect of cyclical analysis: the K-wave.
Had he considered this larger wave then it would have been clear that the K-wave low was in the books to come, hence CRB decline –> a low in early 2009 would have been too soon since the K-wave began in 1949.
On the other hand, if one had taken notice of smart money action, then a top in gold in 2011would have been clear: GEORGE SOROS HAD SOLD ALL HIS GOLD IN SPRING 2011 when gold was still at some 1330.
Now, a wise investor should consider the same smart money action and look at Soros having sold lots of stocks and loaded Barrick –> Barrick and gold will be worth buying at ICL to come
…while playing the “bubblish long stocks” song will prove a mistake.
BEAUTIFUL: aaaall commodities deflating like a stung balloon ! 🙂
TMF is the place to be or, alternatively, short in commodities and selected stocks, such as DIS
I’m going to say that sentiment on oil is still too bearish for an intermediate top. This will just be a short term pullback, or at most a DCL. Oil is still stretched way too far below the 200 WMA. It has further to regress yet.
I also think Kondratieff waves are useless in a fiat money system. It’s only possible to get deflation in a fixed monetary system. As long as a country is willing to sacrifice their currency inflation will always be the threat, not deflation. Bernanke proved this when he stopped deflation in its tracks with QE1.
1) Central banks can “halt” a K-wave low just as the same central banks have been “able” to halt recessions by relaxing monetary policy.
The point is that central banks will always be found behind the curve at the onset of a downtrend to catch only later on when desperation kicks in and un-warranted monetary relaxation is unleashed.
Specifically about FED’s prior QEs and current ECB’s and BOJ’s QEs, THEY WERE AND THEY ARE TO LOW TO HALT A K-WAVE.
This is an now event too important for world’s economy and furthermore occurring in a globalized economy (it requires centralized monetary policy or at least some concert of actions of central banks worldwide) to allow us to simply accept that the initial thrust of central banks has sufficed to bring in inflation!
I think that such an easy acceptance would be too…un-appropriate.
If central banks have always found themselves behind the curve for more simple affairs such as recessions how could they doge a K-wave low from the first couple of QE gun thrusts ??!!!
What tools to calculate the RIGHT AMOUNT OF MONEY TO BE PRINTED do central banks have ??!!
No way, this is a blind’s an touch, they printed and they are printing, that’ will prove insufficient and then they will print more, more than necessary and ONLY THEN WE WILL HAVE THE K-WAVE LOW! IT WAS UNAPPROPRIATE TO THINK THAT THE LOW WOULD BE HALTED SO EASILY.
2) on oil: Gary, maybe too much reliance is granted to sentimentrader.com ‘s sentiment readings.
We had an ICH yesterday in commodities and oil, we are in Yearly Cycle decline with stocks, you will see.
Now you are repeating the same mistake you made on reading and calling for gold’s low via sentiment.
It is ok for us as traders and humans to make errors but it is not ok to avoid learning from them.
You will have to change something in the weight you grant sentiment once it will be obvious the tops in stocks, commodities and crude have been charted.
You’ve missed almost every cycle call you’ve tried to make over the last year. I think I’ll stick with my analysis 🙂
The key chart to watch will be the McClellen oscillator. Most DCL’s occur in the minus 60 to minus 80 range.
now that you’ve removed your stops, how do manage risk?
I don’t know what you mean. Did you not read the morning report?
That’s why his sub rode a position from 30 to 22. We were lucky it bounced.
Remember this is a triple leveraged fund. Those are going to move big. Instead of concentrating on percentages which we know will be large, focus on the chart. There is a very good possiblity that we only missed the bottom by 4 days. That’s pretty darn close in my book.
Everything is inline for a drop.
Stocks, Gold and oil…
Gold for sure. Stocks and oil, maybe. Like I said most DCL’s occur with the NYMO around -60 to -80. So there is room for a quick push to test the 200 DMA.
We already have a divergence in the TSI. That usually occurs when a DCL is ready to form.
New lows across the board.
Same stuff every week Gary.
Eventually you’ll get the low but at what cost?
Market is now discounting the possibility of a rate hike in June. You really think this thing will explode into new highs before the fed meeting?
Absolutely. How do you think the Fed will be able to raise rates if the market isn’t at or near the all-time highs?
They can’t raise rates into a declining market.
MONTHLY SWING HIGH IN STOCKS !!!
We have got the signal that we are indeed in Yearly Cycle decline and, what I’ve been advocating since February: THAT THIS ADVANCE WAS ABOUT TO BE AND HAS BEEN INDEED SO STRONG SIMPLY BECAUSE IT WAS A YEARLY CYCLE ADVANCE and that’s how YC advances simply are 🙂
And…fasten your seatbelts, ladies and gentlemen: WE ARE MERELY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE Y.C. DECLINE! 🙂 🙂 🙂 UHAAA! rollercoaster stop not earlier than this September 🙂
To the TROLL (DG) on another blog, which shall remain nameless:
hahaha on you.
GGN $0.07 distribution secure for another 3 months.
“The Board of Trustees of the GAMCO Global Gold, Natural Resources & Income Trust (NYSE MKT:GGN) (the “Fund”) approved the continuation of its policy of paying monthly cash distributions. The Board of Trustees declared cash distributions of $0.07 per share for each of July, August, and September 2016.”
http://seekingalpha.com/pr/16495055-gamco-global-gold-natural-resources-and-income-trust-continues-monthly-distributions
Gary, It would seem that 68-69 days is way outside the normal timing band to still be seeking a Daily Cycle low here. My Cycle work shows the SPX had a possible DCL back in early April on day 38. Sure it would have been a mild DCL but certainly within the normal timing band. Time is just as important as looking at the oscillators. In any case, if that was a mild DCL in Stocks, that would mean that the current Daily Cycle has just failed with the move below SPX 2033. If so, watch out below.
Hope you have your stops in place for you and your subs.
That’s my exact thought.
I feel like he’s just pulling and grabbing.
He’s going to cost a lot of his sub a lot of money.
Wasn’t Stevie shorting this market with SSO a month ago. That dude caught the top!!!
Even if my SPX alt DCL on day 38 is not correct, that line is also the neckline on a 3 month Head & Shoulders pattern that was posted here a few days back.
This is just the half intermediate cycle low. Those tend to be scary.
I’m going to guarantee by next Friday I’m going to be saying “I told you so”.
….and biotechs, those sweet biotechs, ARE NOW RIPE FOR SHORTING!
They are early in their fresh, brand new DC, just day 5, and they are leading the decline 🙂
SHORT BIOTECHS!
Mark over on GoldTent has a wolf wave chart that shows the LABD 3x BioTech short going as high as $75 over the next month. I don’t like 3xers, however, but do have a nice position in BIS the 2x short. Mark is very sharp. Not always right but no one ever is. Still, I would not bet against him.
https://goldtadise.com/?p=370090
Bought another $1,000 tranche of FNV this morning.
Think I’ll set my limit at 100 tranches.
j/k about the second part.
Not sure what Gary is seeing but sentimentrader is reporting retailers super bullish with smart money short.
I also see it on the large COT futures report.
SPX is not looking good imo, I mentioned several times in April that we would see some weakness going into Mayhem May.
Gold, a just brutal rally last weeks, holy crap, I sold way too early… however I am sitting with pennie stox right now and great news is pending in all of them, ATH in my portfolio yesterday 🙂
A great call from this golden wizard on Tuesday, I sold my whole position in Blackrock World Gold Pension Fund:
http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/553477#comment-553477
Surf City, yes, $75 is the pivot of LABD’s harmonic chart. That will be tested.
It seems to me that MOST of the bulls miss the runs up;
and MOST of the bears miss the big drops.
The easy way is Old Turkey.
I don’t have a problem with easy.
“Take profits if you gotem” is good advice on days NOT like today.
PS: I’m trying to learn how to talk in circles like that Rabbit Hole character – just for fun and all that.
It’s a good day for gold bulls.
By the way …
This Savage blog and Stewart Thomson are my two favourite reads; not because of their track records. Having never subscribed to either service, I have no idea what the track records look like.
The reason I enjoy reading these two is that I know exactly what they’re saying. They might be right, they might be wrong, but at least I can understand the concept.
Rabbit Hole and Armstrong – now there are two circle jerks to waste some time, if one is so inclined.
LOL on Armstrong. 😉
Have not spent much time at the Rabbit Hole.
Indu, spx tested the 200 ema. NDX tested its previous breakout range. Could be a double bottom? Dunno. I just know, if all these doesnt hold, not too good.
5 Min back, I just some tasty profits on my Stock market short positions (SDS, QID and BIS) as they have hit the top of short term price channel. I think we get some kind of dead cat bounce here where I will look to reload later.
NDX, nasdaq, tested the 32% retracements.
Potential leadership in the market…. CRM, CSCO, WB….
I can see it already.. We’ll get a bounce into the close and Gary will make another…
“I believe the daily cycle is in, IF NOT maybe tomorrow or next week.”
I’m just going over lots of stocks, most of them closing green or with a tiny loss, all of them bouncing back nicely, looks like they just got out of sellers, tomorrow may start the turnaround.
well, stock short should be closed now or at least stops put closer.
We are now on a high probability of having a DCL in stocks today because we are on day 30.
I have always considered that April hosted the prior DCL because I do my analysis based on NYSE, transports and Hang Seng primarily (SPX is peripheral).
So, I expect to see a bounce in stocks followed by a left-translated DC.
Whatsoever, I advise anyone NOT TO BUY stocks despite the very likely short dead-cat bounce round the corner.
Miners are actually green on the day with Gold down $18-20.
Amazing price action that is radically different from what we saw during the long Bear.
gold down as of now, 3.30
Yes, my point was Gold was down $20 and yet GDX, GDXJ and most of my small miner positions were still up. Anfield up 7% today while the metal was down. We never saw anything like this during the Bear.
How are the refunds coming along?
Gary should be refunding everyone as his earlier call of DCL failed.
I think if he has the brass he should offer to pay each subscriber $50 plus the refund next time he makes such a “sure call”.
The guarantee is for a test of the all-time highs by mid June. I stand by it.
And what do you lose if it does not happen?
You just refund the people who most likely would not have subscribed any way.
This is a “Heads I win…Tails I don’t lose” situation for you.
A real confident person would offer everyone a double refund.
Gary
I like better this one..
I’m going to guarantee by next Friday I’m going to be saying “I told you so”.
Gary — do we have our DCL in stocks? Too early to say…need a swing low and then upward break of downtrend line?
Yes the SPX needs to break the down trend line to confirm the DCL.
What has happened to Ralph? Dd he change his user name? I miss his big mouth.
Yes, it is DCL in stocks today.
A short dead cat bounce is set to start tomorrow.
…I.e., DCL on day 30.
The best place to be right now is back 100% cash and wait for the DCH to come in quickly and re-short there.
Good night!
All time high is 2140. A 100 point move with the potential for rate hike coming up.
Sorry, not going to happen.
Oh man GDX made a wicked turnaround. This is the most annoying correction ever. It just will not have a sustained pullback, always 1 or 2 days max. Tired of it, just want to buy miners cheaper
On another Forum that I frequent, another poster that I respect offered up this advice to those who are under invested here. Overall I find his thinking below to be sage advice. I also don’t expect the correction to last a month but Time will Tell.
“If the open is weak, buy some. I would expect a bounce, and then a lower low over the next month. Buy that too. A 20-25% correction should be expected after the run we’ve had.
So if you scale in over the next month, you should be able to build a nice position at good prices.
But keep in mind: in a bull market, these shakeouts are fast and hard. Don’t be surprised if the window closes a lot faster than anyone’s expecting.”
20 – 25% correction in GDX? That would be around GDX 20 -21 correct?
That was his view but I am less sure. What I am seeing now is Gold gets hammered down $20 and the miners go down early but end up green. Check out my charts on the attached link. I’m not saying the correction is over here, but Gold, Silver and the Miners all found support today at an interesting spot. GDX is chart #4
https://goldtadise.com/?p=370367
My view is that this is a Gold bull for the ages. Best to get a seat on the bus and hold on as the Bull will try to shake you off.
The long bear has shaken the confidence of many but you need to have the right strategy for the right market. You can Trade a Bear but you should Ride a Bull.
Thanks. These are contrary to what Gary is predicting. These charts suggest gold correction to only 1230 while Gary saying much deeper. I tend to want to agree with Gary. We need at least 38 – 50 fib retracement. Anything else is just not enough to reset sentiment