I’m pretty confident that stocks completed their daily cycle low on Friday. After I see how today closes I should be able to make the call. If it did complete the DCL on Friday then this was the mildest DCL in the last year and a half. Just another sign that I’m correct about the 7 year cycle low having bottomed. The perma bears are about to get kicked in the teeth yet again. 

I’ve made this call before, and I’m going to make it again. The S&P, and probably the Nasdaq, are going to test the all-time highs during the second daily cycle. The Dow will in all likelihood make a new all-time high. 

Remember, the time to buy is when you are scared. I think you can buy today, and even if it turns out we have another day or two before the final DCL, once it is complete we will then make a bee line for the highs. 

In fact I’m going to give you a money back guarantee that the market is not rolling over like the majority of clueless analysts and perma bears are calling for. If you buy a yearly susbcription to the SMT newsletter today or tomorrow and we don’t test the all-time highs by the middle of June then I will refund your subscription. I only make this kind of guarantee when I’m very confident about the current cycle structure, and I’ve never missed on a guarantee yet. 

How many other newsletter writers are willing to back up their product with a money back guarantee?

The guarantee only applies for those that sign up for a yearly subscription today or tomorrow.

This is your chance to buy at a low risk entry. You have to buy at, or close to the bottom,  not 3 weeks later when your emotions give you the all clear signal. If you enter a trade too late you risk losing money on a trade that the rest of us make money on. 

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43 thoughts on “MONEY BACK GUARANTEE

  1. Gary Post author

    At this point I doubt the dollar will manage an undercut low. It looks like we have a final ICL, and just like I predicted it came as a marginal break below the August low that failed to deliver any follow through.

    As usual most peoples emotions took over and they couldn’t imagine any scenario in which the dollar could rally, just like 4 months ago they couldn’t imagine any scenario in which the dollar could drop.

    Folks the euro has to drop as we head towards the Brexit. That means the dollar has to rally.

    The same logic applies to gold. 4 months ago no one could imagine any scenario in which gold could rally. Now after four months of rising price no one can imagine any scenario in which gold can drop.

    Human nature never changes. It’s why the vast majority of traders keep making the same mistakes over and over through out their entire investing career.

    1. Gary Post author

      That’s only about a 9% move. That doesn’t seem too hard to achieve.

        1. Gary Post author

          It’s in a DCL, but I think that will end sometime this week if it didn’t end on Friday.

  2. shine07

    Summarizing: So, despite a rising dollar, apart from gold and PMs, we should see a rising in all other assets.
    Man it is crucial for the SM to make ATH, otherwise…”game over”. But.. the way CentralBanksters behaves you are might be just right about it! Let us see and make some money, that all it matters in EOD after all.

    1. Gary Post author

      Actually I would say that if stocks don’t make a lower low during the next ICL then it’s game over for the bears. And at this point it’s not looking good as all indexes have broken their 7 year cycle trend lines. And the Dow has completed a higher high, and a higher low.

      In a declining 7 year cycle price has no business making higher highs. That strongly suggests that the Dow is no longer in the 7 YC decline and that it ended in February. If the S&P goes above the November low during the next daily cycle then the perma bears will need to find another site to troll as no one here will be able to take them serious. Heck they’ve already lost 90% of the battle once the trend line was broken.

  3. shine07

    Why is Crude receding so fast from the highs…it hapens for several days in a row..opens high and closes weak…frustrating.

    1. Gary Post author

      It’s been trying to drop into a half cycle low. It may still have more to go before it’s finished.

    1. Gary Post author

      I haven’t missed one yet.

      If we didn’t complete the DCL on Friday we will do so sometime this week.

  4. Gary Post author

    It’s starting to look like I probably got the top correct in gold. When everyone starts talking about no corrections for a year, or just a mild correction thats the bell ringing that a top is near.

    Back in 2006 I heard lots of talk about housing prices just “leveling off” That told me it was time to sell all my real estate because a crash was coming.

    1. kblue

      Hi Gary, speaking of real estate, how many more years of bull market are left for real estate? And will the correction be severe?

      1. Gary Post author

        I would expect real estate to turn down during the next recession. My best guess is that won’t occur until 2019 or 2020???

  5. CaliJoe


    With so much knowledge and insight, you should be working for some top hedge fund or Goldman Sachs in New York!

    Appreciate all your hard work.

    1. Gary Post author

      Then I wouldn’t get to go rockclimbing for two months and I would probably have an ulcer. No thanks. I have more than enough money to last me the rest of my life.

          1. Gary Post author

            By the time the long term charts turn you will have missed a huge move. I don’t like to wait that long. My tools are used to get me in long before it becomes apparent on a long term time frame.

      1. tfinavia

        I would be bullish and aim for 10 SMA monthly near 60 this month. That would be awesome.

  6. Don

    In case anyone plays the futures market, natural gas is looking quite bullish. I am board

  7. Don

    This just in: Dennis Gartman is now bullish on crude and bearish on the stock market. Now I am worried. That idiot has an almost perfect track record of being wrong,

  8. jhmoffett

    Gary – with today’s activity in stocks, are you more or less bullish and long?

    1. Gary Post author

      That’s the problem with almost all retail traders. They can’t pull the trigger at bottoms. They have to wait till their emotions tell them the coast is clear. Of course that’s usually right about the time a correction is due.

      Gold is a classic example. All last week all we heard was how this time it was going to be different and no correction would occur. So those that followed the advice of Plunger, or Jordan Byrne, etc. are now caught in a downtrend and probably in an ICL decline that won’t bottom until June.

    1. Gary Post author

      LOL actually the 50 didn’t cross the 100, and won’t unless we get a big move down this month.

      Just more of the usual perma bear shock and awe nonsense, not to mention a sample size of 2 is completely worthless.

        1. Gary Post author

          A kiss. And it will cross right back above unless price drops back below.

  9. Gary Post author

    I’m going to make a tentative call that the DCL occurred on Friday.

    We will now get a test of the all-time highs by mid June.

    All we need now is for oil to finish the half cycle low and start back up as well. Once that occurs then the energy stocks will add even more force to the rally.

  10. shine07

    Gary, you talked about a DCL one week ago! Are you sure we are not rolling over tomorrow? Keeping Long at this point is becoming painful…

  11. Joseph69

    Sold my Labu at 27.50 today for a lost -21%.
    Couldn’t bare the pain anymore and decided to sell on any bounce today. We got a good one so I decided to exit.

    1. Gary Post author

      I think you sold right at the bottom of a daily cycle low.

      I never sell this late in a daily cycle. This is how traders lose money consistently. They buy high and sell low.

      I think I would buy that position right back tomorrow and sell it when the SPX tests the all time highs.

    2. J

      too Early,,,,LABU will be up for the next few days minimum, some of the largest volume yet last two days, 23.25, was a an easy entry

  12. Pingback: BUY LOW, SELL HIGH: EASY TO SAY, HARD TO DO - Smart Money Tracker

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