Where will the dollar bottom?

The dollar is now on day 4 of its bloodbath phase. There is potential support at the 92 level and a little below 90. But it is getting close to the final bottom. 1-3 days left. Once the intermediate cycle low is complete then the euro will start to drop ahead of the Brexit, and we will get an equally scary panic in the euro in late June.

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  1. Gary Post author

    Look for gold to top when the dollar bottoms (unless it anticipates a bottom, in which case it could top a day or two ahead of the dollar’s ICL).

    And stocks will remain volatile until the dollar bottoms. There is still a chance the S&P could continue down a little deeper into the DCL. But once the dollar bottoms stocks will turn and head higher and retest the all-time highs.

  2. isitpossible

    Gary: Can you please tell where do you get COTS data? and Is there a way to get historical data?

  3. Vortex

    Gary as crazy as it may sound and I know it completely goes against you’re ICL thesis in gold that you have projected.

    I think it may be possible with China continuing to weaken and with a significant crisis brewing, that its possible even with a strengthening dollar gold could catch a serious bid and move higher in a China led global meltdown event.

    This does not mean that the miners would follow gold to the upside. They may well correct in a liquidity event just as in the past.

    I know the charts are massively overbought with excessive RSI reading after massive moves off of the bottom, but we could be setting up for a crisis that is nasty beyond belief and the results could be that gold bucks the corrective counter move and just does what it does best as the last man standing. Honestly the miners could do anything. They could implode or just go no offer because of strong hands.

    Of course this is all pure conjecture, but one less visible component worth taking into consideration.



    1. Irwin

      That’s just crazy talk V

      Nothing drastic is going to happen;
      and even if it does, it makes no difference.

      The worst event , so far, is behind us.
      The reason no one is doing anything, is because nothing can be done.

      Japan Scientist/Radiation Pouring into Pacific

  4. Joseph

    SP dropped 60 pts from high-low last week….. lower high. 2020 wd be great if it hits and wd go LONG. Hope this plays out ……
    SP needs to BREAK 2050…..
    We hit 2056 overnight so looks like it will
    NFO this FRI as well…..

    1. Gary Post author

      The yen and euro are in support zones, so it is possible we get the ICL today.

      1. babolat

        Gary, I’m trying to follow the DCL and ICL theories here. You said before that when the 5 day RSI dips to oversold that typically creates a DCL. If I understood correctly, the a half cycle low coincides with a DCL. Didn’t energy/oil already have a DCL back in early April (like 4/4/16)?

  5. andballstoyou

    I think the $ bottom will create a full phase bloodbath as the strongest sectors of the market (energy and materials) start tanking. We are going to visit 2,000 on the SPX at a minimum and 1,950 most likely.

      1. andballstoyou

        Yeah it might hold there.
        In that case Biotech and Tech may go up with the materials still tanking.
        This rally in EM and Energy and PM, has been one for the history books.

  6. Joseph

    Oil is going to Test $41, then possibly 38 again
    Not in 1 move…….. 42.75 to 43.75 needs to BREAK….
    After that, it will bounce UP with SnP to Test highs again……THEN Back Down to break 2020-2000 or lower….

  7. novice

    US probably is the only country starting to get out deflationary comparing to Europe, Japan, China etc , and yet US dollar entering Bear market. It is just hardly to imagine this scenery..

  8. novice

    Whether or not, FED at least has a pressure to raise interest..
    Japan already has negative interest.. Europe is just matter of time..

  9. novice

    US has its best technologies, top talents, FB, AMZN, GOOGL, MSFT, you can name it..
    I really don’t want to own country’s currency, such as Japan, which is using more elder’s diaper than baby diaper; soon will be China..

  10. tulip

    ahhh novice you have heard go the precious metals..?!!
    food,, water.. commodities….? energy..

    1. novice

      US dollar Index is not $ vs gold/oil/water…
      It is against other fiat paper currencies. If people think the best investment in United State, US$ has to go up.. Nobody wants to hold equities or any shape or form investments in US if currency goes down..

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