Back in May I guaranteed that the stock market would test the highs by mid June. I made that guarantee as stocks were moving down into a daily cycle low. Everyone was bearish and telling me the stock market had rolled over. I knew they were wrong, because all assets had completed their multi-year cycle lows, and the advance decline line had already moved to new highs. That is not something that happens if stocks are entering a bear market. On top of that the breadth thrust out of the February bottom was one of the most powerful in the last 50 years.

subscription money back guarantee

During the next two months we added 20% to the stock portfolio, over 20% to the metal portfolio, and I gave traders an option trade that covered their yearly subscription in the first 3 days of the trade. Those people that took me up on my offer have profited tremendously. In fact they have made more money in the last two months than most money managers make in two years.

Now I’m going to do it again. I’m going to guarantee that between now and September not only will the S&P test the all-time highs, it’s going to break above the all-time highs and put to rest forever this silly notion that stocks are topping and starting a bear market. Nothing could be further from the truth. Stocks are not topping. They are forming a long consolidation after a huge move up over the last 7 years. Once the consolidation is¬†finished we still have at least one more leg up – the bubble phase. And that phase should last at least another 2-3 years, if not a little longer.

Anyone buying an annual subscription in the next 48 hours I will refund your purchase price if the S&P doesn’t make new highs ¬†by the end of September. I told my subs several months ago that 2016 was going to be a phenomenal year for investing. Why? Because all assets completed multi-year cycle lows early this year. We’ve already made incredible gains and the year is only half over. If you are tired of listening to the perma bears or analysts that simply don’t understand what is happening, and you are tired of losing money trying to short every rally then it’s time to try something different. Einstein said doing the same thing over and over expecting a different result is the definition of insanity. Stop the insanity…

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42 thoughts on “ANOTHER GUARANTEE

  1. newtotrading

    Please don’t erase this comment – people need to have some sort of warning about the validity of your predictions and the fact that your track record isn’t as stellar as you want other to believe. Invest several million in the market a if I’m wrong at least you’ll get your subscription fee back. Come on Gary – too much time in the weight room and not enough time in reality

    1. Gary Post author

      All my trades are placed in real time. The results can be verified by any of my 3000 subs. Sorry troll boy. You get an A for effort. But an F for quality.

    2. bill

      This is a business and Gary is in the business of making money his time and efforts are not free ( unless of course if you troll the free blog which no doubt you do ) none the less your ignorance is truly what stellar here.

      Pony up some of that ( free info ) doe you made and buy a subscription or are you to cheap?

  2. Gary Post author

    Looks like silver wants to try again today to break through that resistance zone at $18.50. Once it does I expect a big move will follow.

  3. Don

    Gary did specifically state on or about May 11 : “the S&P is going to test the all time highs by mid june” Credit is due.

  4. humbled

    taken a look at the SPX chart just today. The high was approached and tested a few times.

    Silver indeed trying again. Clearance of 18.50-18.55 zone crucial. may need one more session. Tomorrow maybe ?

    dollar index not headed south yet.. see how it goes later today dxy.

  5. humbled

    just thinking we may need to test the recent low just below 2,000 once more in the weeks ahead.. mayhaps in the 1,950+/- region for a lower low to mark the IC low.

    The Brexit dip took so few days…

    1. Gary Post author

      Once an ICL has formed they almost never look back. They usually rally 6-8% in the first 12-18 days.

      Getting in at the bottom and hanging on while everyone else hesitates is why we have made so much money in the stock portfolio over the last year and a half.

      1. ras

        May be. Sideways price move. Trendless. Difficult for both bears and bulls. 3 days upmove unable to push spy macd above trigger line. Not impressed. Glad to leave the arena to folks more talented than myself. 60 minute chart of spy also trendless.

  6. bill

    Add in the UK drama, The UK implodes all the more reason for our markets to shine as the money will be pouring in from the Peninsula looking for a home…

  7. heybuddy

    SPX shot up 135 points in 6 trading days out of the February low. An equal move out of Monday low will put SPX at 2125-30 next week.

  8. jhmoffett

    Gary — am not sure if we have an ICL yet. What’s the tell on that? And when…next week? Wonder if we are likely to test the lows of this week before an ICL forms.

    1. Gary Post author

      Lows don’t get tested once the ICL has been struck. As I pointed out, intermediate cycle lows usually rally 6 to 8% in the first 12 to 18 days. Traders waiting for a retest end up getting left behind.

      1. jhmoffett

        Okay, thx, understand. Yet do we have an ICL yet? Or need to wait to see next week?

      2. ras

        May be. Not sure about ICL. Inverse volatility etfs look terrible, exhibiting bearish behaviour. A bit more unfinished business on the downside? Next 6-10 days could be telling. BP indicators of major market indexes are too sluggish compared to index price movement. Unable to see any attractive set up to go long, except for day traders. Do n’t know about getting left behind. Always tend to take the middle and forget about bottom fishing and scalping at the top. Leaving that exercise to folks more talented than myself.

  9. Don

    These violent moves down-up-down-up, always end the same way: Bear market. That is according to what I have witnessed in almost 39 years of investing ( now called gambling). The steep rise may continue and even make new highs but I have my doubts. I feel a lot safer being short except for being long silver and gold.

    1. Gary Post author

      I would argue that violent sell offs followed by violent recoveries have been the hallmark of this bull market for the last 7 years.

      I would also point out that violent sell offs are not bear market behavior.

    2. bill

      I will also add day trading this market stinks to high heaven long and hold seems to be the way. But many can’t grasp this concept. I have my longs and I gamble with options that simple .?

  10. elvira33

    Way to go Gary!

    Thanks for your insight and wisdom….and because of you I kept my wits to reach short term milestones. Appreciate your patience and steadfastness with trolls.

    Waiting for Silver 25….high ho!!!!!

  11. tednation

    Do you realize the AAII sentiment survey shows the following:
    BULLISH 28.9%
    NEUTRAL 37.7%
    BEARISH 33.4%

    With over 70% either being out of the market or short, that means there is plenty of fuel for this bull to go on. We are no where near a tops!

  12. bill

    I bought the 4200 contract oil dump today or $203 million dollar dump that is lol thanks for the sale.

  13. tulip

    Gary, can you think about not saying you ‘guarantee’..
    No one can guarantee prediction in the markets…

      1. Robert


        I think last month you guaranteed that miners would have a deep pullback because they were so stretched from the 200 DMA. You even had a chart going back years and we did not get much pullback. Now you are advocating a super stretch above the 200 DMA way above the mean. Have fun chasing miners here but I will sit it out even if I miss the gold bull run. It is ridiculously stretched….reversion to mean is necessary to fuel further gains and not that little pullback in GDX to 23.9.

        1. Gary Post author

          Silver is the place to be. It needs to catch up and it’s not stretched above the mean. Miners benefited the most during the baby bull phase. Silver should deliver the fireworks during this second intermediate cycle, with miners maybe generating most of their gains later in the cycle after the 200 DMA has had more time to catch up to price.

  14. humbled

    I think Gary is correct.
    The rally in SPX until yesterday has been impulsive not corrective.

    Low probably already hit marginally sub-2,000 pts. Am going outright long before missing the whole train.

    With dollar pausing market participants realize dollar can’t get any stronger (by much), now they are piling in across asset classes.

    Global asset melt-up may have begun this week.

  15. crawfordnews

    This is nothing but short covering. We are heading lower. I will watch the action tomorrow and may pick few VXX.

  16. crawfordnews

    Just bought VXX call option.

    Settle Date: 07/05/2016
    Action: Bought
    Quantity: 20
    Symbol: VXX 01/19/2018 60.00 C
    Unit Price: $0.90

    Lets see if my charts are accurate.

  17. Gary Post author

    The bears still wont trust my cycles and continue to try and short, and at the very beginning of an intermediate cycle no less.

    This is absolutely the worst time to ever be short. Stocks typically rally 6-8% during the first 12-18 days coming out of an ICL.

    On top of that it is monumentally stupid to fight the Fed’s printing press. You can’t win that battle until after the bubble forms and pops.

  18. Don

    Gary, do yo not believe the strong performance of the bonds and gold/silver to be a problem for the stock market? I know you said that everything will be going up together but for how long and which one is going to crack first?

    1. Gary Post author

      Look at the period from 2002 to 2007. Everything went up together. Look at 2009 to 2011. Everything went up together.

      This is the natural state of the market when central banks are printing money. The only reason we deviated from 2013 to 2015 was due to the paper market manipulation forcing gold into an artificially created bear market.

  19. palobar

    Gary has been a very good job. He has been correct about the metals and the US equity markets. Without the fancy stuff presented by others, we need to give him credit. His subscription is worth every penny. Well done. From my side, I just wanted to note that on 28/6, the Dow made a low exactly on a very important time band which confirms what he has been sreaming. Dont short this market. Despite the BS that is written by the vast majority out there, this market is preparing to move much higher.

  20. humbled

    Biotech too. Seems to have made that fiinal “fake out” low and embarked the upswing in line with the broad market, while outperforming it.

    Handsome return awaits the patient longs (ahead). The impatient longs who wanted instant gratification would miss what is coming.

  21. Albins

    Gary, I appreciate your work. You have held opinions that run counter to many others and have been right. Although we tested the highs in June did the market meet the criteria of your earlier guarantee, or did the people that bought subscriptions receive the benefit and get their subscriptions for free?

    1. Gary Post author

      Why would anyone want their money back? The market did exactly what I said it would do. It tested the all-time highs, plus we made a boatload of money during that time.

      We are making even more money now.

      The metal portfolio is now at +117%
      and the stock portfolio is at +53%

  22. humbled

    Thanks Gary for being so right, and steadfast amongst dissenting voices and parading trolls.

Comments are closed.