46 thoughts on “CHARTS OF THE DAY – DOLLAR STARTING A NEW BEAR MARKET

  1. Gary Post author

    I’m on my summer climbing trip so no videos for awhile until I get back to Vegas.

    1. Gary Post author

      This is just a knee jerk reaction to the Brexit. Once that is past the market will have to recognize that the dollar is in serious trouble and gold will go back to trading in its normal inverse relationship.

      Just have some patience, it won’t be too long before gold turns back up.

    2. humbled

      hi shine07

      that’s because market participants are too absorbed with Brexit to see it at the moment

  2. chrisG

    Gary, i think u are right. But after brexit vote, gold is in the best shape to plunge $50 ish or more , who knows maybe to 1190-1210 area. THis drop could be over in 3 days. Note, it did not make a big fib retracement. Thereafter, then gold will figure out that dollar is dropping, and then reverse to upside breakout.

  3. Alexandru Popovici

    market has already digested the proEU UK vote.
    1) miners have produced a swing low –> day 1 in new cycle and advent for gold’s resumption of growth in a new DC
    2) stocks to resume quickly their strong, forceful decline till autumn.

    Trades to have:
    – long gold (already have it)
    – long treasuries –> to initiate tomorrow.

    1. Alexandru Popovici

      the negative correlation gold-usx has resumed since 11:20 ET
      stock bulls should be aware that this brexit thing will act as a classic buy-the-rumor-sell-the-fact event.
      the only assets worth being long in are gold and treasuries.

      1. tfinavia

        Thanks Alex! I am following the same but maintain that after strong dip post Brexit (Britain exits or modifies treaty with EU while remaining) we will have one more strong rise and then the strong, forceful decline you mention could start after July 20 going into August. October may show long trade. Please share additional insights as they come.

  4. humbled

    Alex: agree with you on the DC.
    Seems miners led Gold by at least 1 day in what appears to be a 1-2 or (i❩-(ii) bullish setup to swing higher again, possibly into the traditional seasonally strong months of Q3 (July/Aug/Sep❩.

    Silver been holding up quite well

  5. Anthonyo

    Dissenting point of view on gold and USD. Dont shoot the messenger pls.

    ” Gold: The latest COTs in gold show a dramatic surge in Commercial short and Large Spec long positions over the past two weeks to new record extremes. This is viewed as an outright bearish setup.
    “www.sentimenttrader.com in gold now at a wild bearish extreme. If you are a trader long the sector, and are not worried by this, then I am sorry…”

    ” USD: On the 3-year chart for the US dollar index we can see that it has stabilized above strong support towards the lower boundary of a giant rectangular trading range, with a potential base pattern forming in recent months.
    The latest US dollar Hedgers chart makes for interesting viewing. This chart shows that Hedgers’ positions have been steadily improving since the dollar peak over a year ago, following the strong run up, and they are now closing in on being outright bullish.”
    “Additionally, with negative rates in Europe and Japan, and the US Fed due for at least one rate hike this year, how can USD not rally as a safe haven and for global investors looking for higher yield?”

    1. Gary Post author

      I’m going to bet my cycles against the COTS this time. I say the dollar has begun another secular bear market.

      1. Robert

        Gary the next good play could be short oil and the market? Remembered you saying one more leg up on SPY and then market should pull back.

  6. Alexandru Popovici

    yeap, Humbled, let’s see how it all unfolds.
    in the meantime the negative correlation btw USX-gold has gained control: since 11:40 ET trends have temporarily reversed with USX up and gold down.

    It’s nice to see Brexit noise fading away!

  7. Alexandru Popovici

    Victor! hey, hey, dear mate! Good to hear from you too 🙂
    I hope you’re doing fine.
    looking forward to tomorrow’s price action!

  8. tulip

    Hi Alex,
    Im interested in how things are in Romania…economy
    people….it is very tense in the U.S. not healthy at all.
    Sanders the single viable candidate.
    tulip

      1. tulip

        I m doing here because Im highly supportive of rules and regulations not organized
        crime in our govt and military industrial complex…
        I support our Constitution & I support Sanders..
        There are distinctions and having a brain sees them~

  9. humbled

    yes, and the currencies are getting wild swings as the poll results are gradually released by the media

    1. Gary Post author

      The PPT is already at work trying to reverse the sell off. I’m perfectly happy with them propping up the stock market. I’ve come to expect it by now.

      But I hope they also leave the metals alone to continue their natural rally out of the intermediate cycle low.

  10. Steffmeister

    Congrats Great Britain, a great day for Europe, lets get rid of the tape worm called EU as soon as possible !

    Do not trust Gary’s 7year low is in and now we will see a new bull in stocks. Yes we could break to new highs in 2017, but it’s going to be a brief moment, then we turn downwards big time, holy smoke.

    Here is a guy how knows cycles very well:
    https://youtu.be/SDoIbFuKgfU

    Raoul Pal is a skllled man, a pro avaliable for us grass roots investors.

  11. humbled

    I believe Gary is correct.
    Multi-year cycle low is in at 1,810 on the S&P 500 index and current correction is unlikely to breach that low.

    We may test 2,000-2,025 and subsequently head up and down over time to 1,950+/- intraday and that’s probably it for the c-wave dip however timing wise could stretch a bit into July/august mayhaps. It depends on how much of the dip we achieve today US stock markets for a Friday weekly close.

  12. Joseph69

    So did Gary try to time this post with the thinking the BREXIT vote would be shot down?

    Dollar roared last night. Still king of the hill.

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