DON’T LOSE SIGHT OF THE BIG PICTURE

CHART – MULTI YEAR CYCLE LOWS

It never ceases to amaze me how quickly traders lose sight of the big picture. Any unexpected move in the markets and traders panic. The Brexit vote Thursday was an unexpected event and it took the market by surprise, but it hasn’t changed anything.

The bottom line is that every asset class has completed a multi-year cycle low, the dollar has topped and is starting down into its next 3 year cycle low, due in mid to late 2017. This means everything is going up.

It’s virtually impossible to lose money in anything from now to mid 2017 ifย you are long. All wiggles and mistimed trades will be rescued.ย 

Folks, it doesn’t get any easier than that. Just buy long and hold on. Eventually the market will turn your trade into a winner.

The only way to lose money is because you buy high and then sell low. If you are going to sell low then make sure you buy even lower because price is going higher.

The other way to lose money is by selling short. The dominant trend will be against you. If you don’t time short trades perfectly, selling short could cost you your portfolio. The market will not rescue a mistimed short trade. The only thing worth shorting over the next year will be the dollar.

multi year cycle lows

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77 thoughts on “DON’T LOSE SIGHT OF THE BIG PICTURE

  1. muskie032

    I don’t know Gary things might have changed with brexit. This will cause uncertainty in the eu on who is next to leave. This alone could keep the dollar stronger for years to come with the euro becoming extinct. I wouldn’t be to overconfident that the dollar is toast.

    1. Gary Post author

      This is why I use cycles, so I don’t get caught up in the noise of meaningless news stories.

  2. muskie032

    Don’t get me wrong I think the elite would love to drive the dollar down but until I see it clearly break 92 king dollar is still sitting on his throne. Until brexit i figured the dollar was done for also but not so sure anymore. Cycles or not you cannot totally ignore fundamentals. Please do not take offense from this but my observation from what I see of these cycles they are just a post reflection of what the market has done and then you tailor it with whatever lingo suits the pattern. Hcl,dcl,icl,ycl There is really very little predictive nature to it no more then Elliott wave or chart patterns it’s all determined after it has occured. Ex. the bloodbath in the miners this month that you were beating into everyone’s heads never happened for the ICL and ycl. Maybe the ICL is still coming in the miners and we can re label the charts after it occurs. Of coarse this is just my opinion but your flip flopping on a daily basis makes it hard to put alot a weight into your reccomendations and predictions. I thought you were going to hold the metals portfolio for 3 months now it going to be 3 weeks lol.

    1. Gary Post author

      If that was the case then how in the world is the stock portfolio up 45% during a time when the S&P is negative? And how is the metals portfolio up 56% when gold is up 10%?

      You do realize that you are only getting a very small portion of what we do by monitoring the free blog. Everything here will be after the fact whereas subscribers get real time trades.

      If I see something isn’t working out as expected I adapt as quickly as possible.

      This is how we caught the bottom a month ago even though I was expecting a deeper correction. The gold market told me I was likely to be wrong so I didn’t argue with it. I just went ahead and started buying.

      I’m not sure what you mean holding the metals positions for 3 weeks? I’ve said over and over that I don’t expect a final top for at least another 12 weeks.

      1. Gary Post author

        BTW what fundamentals are you talking about? The Fed has printed more money than just about anyone other than maybe Japan.

        Seriously? The consequences of that can not be a strong dollar. There has to be a reckoning at some point. It doesn’t take a lot of commonsense to see that one coming from a mile away. At some point there is going to be a dollar crisis and severe inflation. Then I expect there will be a euro crisis, yen and juan as well as the contagion eventually spreads into all currencies.

        1. muskie032

          You could be right but right now the usd looks like the cleanest of the dirty shirts. I’m just saying that with brexit things have changed and the dollar crash might not be happening anytime soon. Fundamentally stocks are overvalued at 24x, earning are coming down and growth is slowing. That is the question inflation or more deflation, no one really knows. Don’t get me wrong I appreciate your work and views and your ability to be flexible. Just sometimes you can be really confusing in your message and direction. And no I don’t want go with Gary he would kick my sorry arse lol.

          1. Gary Post author

            I’m not sure why anything would be confusing. All trades are posted in real time with an explanation of why I’m taking the trade.

          2. ras

            Spx looks tired. Look at SVXY. Spx not going anywhere in a hurry. Ditto gold miners. With BPGDM at 90, where will the gold miners go? Not locked into any particular scenario, just pointing out what I see in price.

          3. Gary Post author

            Stocks may drop into an intermediate cycle low. They are in the timing band.

            Miners are still stretched above the 200 so I’m not expecting a big rocket shot. The one asset that does look good for a big move is silver.

  3. chrisG

    Armstrong is clear in his latest blog that he expects USD to go up much higher with the collapse of euro. Now let’s see Armstrong vs Gary.

    1. Gary Post author

      Armstrong has consistently been wrong on both gold and the dollar. He made such a big deal about sub $1000 gold that I knew it would be impossible for him to spot any bottom that might occur at a higher level and he would miss a lot or all of the baby bull rally.

      Well I was right. Now the question is how long does he keep his head in the sand before he finally admits he missed the bottom in gold?

      1. Don

        I have been following Martin Armstrong for several years and I can conclusively say that while his track record is better than most, he is not infallible and has made more than a few predictions that didn’t work out.

  4. TraderPete

    Armstrong is a nut. If the dollar goes up much higher, the stock market will collapse; and the PPT will not allow that to happen. Therefore, they will have to lower interest rates and do another QE. Gary is right. The dollar is in a down cycle and gold is in a up cycle.

  5. humbled

    Picture this : as yen depreciated.what it has done to boost Nikkei; when usd goes bear how much translation gains when profits are accounted back to usd? Big margin step up.This not even taking into account.fund flows from.fixed income securities to equities and commodities as participants.continue to chase asset returns. Liquidity remains ample. Markets climb a wall of worries. Central banks remains accommodative to market developments.

  6. humbled

    i would not be surprised if the Fed consciously engineers a weak dollar to inflate its way out. Pure rhetoric could do the trick : manage rate hike expectations from 2 down to 1 and done then no more dollar bull to expect. long unwinds into short and then a dollar bear.

    You see the strong dollar argument is counter intuitive.. if things are getting so bad how could central bank allow a strong currency? That would be the last thing they want.

    The fundamental solution is to have a weak dollar so it can boost everything else and rely on wealth effect to continue boost asset prices. The IMF is saying usd ia overvalued by up to 20%

    1. humbled

      that is the ‘fundamental’ of the dollar for you. If anything, Fed still got the rate hike tool to support the dollar. But with market panic the Fed can’t and won’t hike. With dollar recent strength all the more no need to hike as stronger dollar is itself contractionary.

      So i.do not see much of a dollar support for continued upside. If dollar acts as safe haven gold should fare even better, then we have gold rallying alongside dollar again, perhaps for a while.

      That still make gold and silver better ‘currency’ alternatives no change.

  7. humbled

    all this would tie in with Gary’s cycle studies and analytics.

    Thanks Gary, nice intermarket charts ~ ๐Ÿ™‚

  8. Steffmeister

    Gary do you remember 2008? I think we are in for an event like that within 2.3 maybe 4years. Brexit is just a step in that direction. Look at Deutsche Banks stock chart, what a nightmare,Then all asset classes will come tumbling down, even gold, but less than other assets.

    In such an event most of your charts will fail.

  9. tulip

    all asset classes will come tumbling down, even gold, but less than other assets.

    Why do you believe gold will fall….?

    1. Steffmeister

      #tulip, look at 2008 what happened to gold back then ?

      next crisis is going to be much bigger, we are on a global scale now, the debt is everywhere.

      After a short period of deflation, massive inflation will follow. Commodities and gold&silver will soar. Gary is too early with his call imo.

      1. Gary Post author

        In order to get the next crisis we need the next bubble. Note that we didn’t get a crisis in 2003-03 until after a tech bubble. We didn’t get the crisis in 2008-09 until after a housing bubble.

        We need the next bubble before we can get the next crisis. This is what money printing does. It creates bubbles.

        1. daummer

          Gary, don’t you think we already have bubbles? How about the bond market? Massive bubble! I would argue that we are already in a housing and stock bubble as well. We’ve already had a nearly 8 year bull run. As a cycle guy, isn’t an 8 year bull run getting a bit “long in the tooth”–especially in light of rapidly deteriorating economic conditions? aren’t we due a bear move? It seems highly plausible to me that there will be some exogenous event that will take this market down this year, probably before the elections. This brief but dramatic deflationary episode will be the impetus for the helicopter drop of paper dollars that will light the hyperinflationary fuse. That’s when gold and silver will really fly and not look back. That’s when the stock market will soar higher too but not in real terms due to the massive devaluation of the dollar. That’s what I’m expecting. RE: silver, I’m a super bull for it medium & longer term but short term look at how its underperforming. This should make you very cautious as to the validity of this latest move up in gold. Even tonight gold is up a bit and silver is down. Silver is a miniscule market relative to gold. If this move in gold was legit, you’d see at least as strong a move in silver, if not stronger.

          1. Gary Post author

            There has been nothing that even remotely qualifies as a bubble yet. During a bubble price gains 100% or more in a year or less. During a bubble price stretches anywhere from 50-100% or more above the 200 DMA. And most importantly during a bubble the public piles into an asset class that they believe can never go down and they can get rich quick.

            None of those things have happened yet.

        2. ras

          May be. Right now, spx, oils, metals are going down. Gold stocks should be joining soon. Sharp pull back in bpener and bpmate, encouraging, potential long opportunity in oils and metals at some point. BPGDM still powering up. gdxj and juniors beginning to stall. Need to wait until bpgdm pulls back to attractive level. Labu in down mode, but support at 20 nearby, potential long opportunity soon?. spxa50r is already at 22. Spx tends to turn when this hits 10 or so. Potential long opp soon? markets need to stabilise after this drubbing. Not in a rush here.

          Gary is a talented analyst. He tends to be a bit early, possibly because of competitive pressure with other analysts. Many folks on this board were expecting this decline.

  10. Don

    Gary, you are doing your best to keep people in the stock market and not to sell if a buy goes against them with “Just buy long and hold on. Eventually the market will turn your trade into a winner.” There is nothing ambiguous about that call.
    Some folks might have a problem sharing your bullish enthusiasm given that we are now seven years since the market bottomed in 2009. I guess they are just nit-wits huh? . Time will reveal if your predictions are the result of an incredible foresight or something not quite so flattering.

  11. Don

    Gary, I have noticed from your posted charts that each asset has a different cycle length lows, the S&P being 7 years, the CRB at 3 years, gold 8 years and so on. Have you back tested these cycles to ensure that the length of the cycles are consistent (and therefore predictable) or at least close?

      1. Gary Post author

        By going nowhere I mean it isn’t going to be dissolved. The euro is here to stay for quite some time yet.

  12. Alexandru Popovici

    dumped my treasuries + two thirds of gold position.
    I keep 1/3 of gold & rest is cash.

    UK politicians will find a way to keep UK in EU — maybe a 2nd referendum.

  13. Alexandru Popovici

    ….sold also the rest of my gold –> I am 100% cash.
    I do not like gold’s lack of action while all other asset classes have been moving while UK politicians are utterly against enacting country’s dissolution and economic collapse. No Parliament could vote such a thing.

    Markets are also highly overextended —> I bet people will blame PPT and spirits for the snap back to occur later this week! hahaaaa ๐Ÿ™‚

    1. tulip

      Alex… many think the euro union is a disaster… I agree with them.
      Who desires Brussels dictating…??? you read Moriartys article on 321gold this am…????

  14. Joseph69

    Gary,
    If you couldn’t see this drop, how can anyone trust your thoughts now? Instead of new highs as you have claimed for months, market is back below 2,000.

    You missed it.

    1. victor

      Joseph, in your comments sometimes it’s look like Gary is own you something…, ask yourself if you would do better if you didn’t read Gary’s report? Just look at Alex, before Brexit he said the only things is worth to own ar Gold and Treasures, next day he saw some negative development – out in cash. He have a plan and reacting quickly on market moves. Does he blame anyone for things didn’t go his way? Real pro for us to copy …

  15. Roadster

    You say the Euro is going to be here for a long time. If one of the countries France, Italy, Finland, Austria, the Netherlands, holds a referendum and leaves where do you see the Euro going. That rounded top which the “dumb bears” have been talking about still looks to be in place. Also interesting today gold hasn’t moved with falling markets. S&p and DJI both fallen below 200dma.

  16. Surf City

    Based on Cycles and other TA indicators, I have been shorting the stock market since June 14th when the SPX broke below my Daily Cycle trend line. My positions are rocking and rolling now. ๐Ÿ™‚

    If anyone has noticed, I have been forecasting for months now, based on Cycles, that stocks would be moving into their next Intermediate Cycle Low in the late June to Mid-July timeframe. New highs for the sock market in the June timeframe was never in the cards based on my cycles work.

    Here are my last three updates on the SPX Intermediate Cycle:

    https://goldtadise.com/?p=373328

    https://goldtadise.com/?p=373810

    https://goldtadise.com/?p=374393

        1. Anthonyo

          If it were not for a Black Swan event, this would have NEVER happened. He is as usual full of it. A real nuisance here. And a shill sent to discredit this site.

      1. Surf City

        Anthonyo, Are you still long BioTech’s with IBB or XBI? How are those working for you?

        One of my short positions is BIS (shorts BioTechs) is up 32% so far… ๐Ÿ˜‰

        1. Anthonyo

          Go shill elsewhere pest. Dont worry about it, shill. Your specifics, theatrics, and shill work is not welcome here. Get a job.

          1. Surf City

            My job is to laugh all the way to bank with the profits on my short positions. ๐Ÿ˜‰

          2. bill

            Name calling over the internet though humorous to some is comical to others. Why cause you most likely would not say it to the persons face. That being said take a deep breath relax just a few more days of this and then we bounce. Emotions are high but opportunity awaits like all things in life.

    1. heybuddy

      Below 15.50 in late July. Silver probably peaked on Friday for now. Seasonally negative until late July.

  17. Surf City

    Just took some very tasty profits on my Stock Market shorts here as many are testing the top of my current price channels. ๐Ÿ˜‰

    It looks like we may get some kind of bounce here and if it looks like the Dead Cat variety, I will reload on my shot positions which included: BIS, QID, SDS and SPXU plus some Calls on UVXY and some Puts on CMG.

    1. Surf City

      Don, You may be correct here as the last three declines into IC Lows were of the waterfall variety where the selling just continued without any bounces. I may be too cautious here but its hard to go broke taking profits. ๐Ÿ˜‰

  18. Joseph69

    Why would this be labeled a black swan event?
    Everyone knew it was coming. Everyone knew it was going to be close.

    And where’s the PPT when you need them?

    1. Surf City

      And why assume that the PPT’s plan is to always rescue the market? Clearly the plan changes at critical times (e.g. 2000 and 2008), so that once TPTB have “distributed” their positions near the top to the Sheeple, the PPT lets the Bear market take hold so that the Elites can then buy everything cheap at the Bear Market lows.

      1. Joseph69

        But Gary said PPT will surely step in on Friday morning. He can’t be wrong.:: can he?

  19. Don

    For all we know, the PPT has been working overtime to keep the market from completely crashing. Japan’s PPT was really getting sloppy when they allowed the Nikkei to make a lower low a few days ago.

  20. Don

    The VIX is going nuts in after hours trading. I don’t see any news yet. Crash tomorrow?

    1. Gary Post author

      The opposite. A bottom today. At least temporary, but getting close to the final ICL.

  21. Alexandru Popovici

    Tulip, I personally believe in the EU project and I hope it will endure.
    What others have seen as a nuisance in EU’s telling others what to me it looks great as it is one body that must show strength to put 27 egoists on the same track.
    The purpose is what I look at, not at the fist instruments employed to achieve it.

    Sorry, I do not know who Moriarty is.

  22. Alexandru Popovici

    Victor, today I booked profits both on gold and treasuries.
    There have been three tings that moved me to deem too risky running the profits further:
    1) reading that the UK referendum is NOT LEGALLY BINDING – British politicians are not going to let the country go bust economically and territorially simply because 1% of the turnout voters chose the wrong leave-box —> this renders the current chaos a temporary event, a major noise merely,
    2) gold stopped running deeper inton the risk-off turf,as if it had touched a cliff at 1335
    3) all markets are short term extremely overextended.

    A snap back rally in stocks and gold’s fall in DC decline are round the corner!

  23. Alexandru Popovici

    Surf City, I personally give you credit. I remember your calls.

    Good night to you all!

  24. plo888

    “Just buy long and hold”, that has got to be the stupidest advice I’ve read from anyone providing technical advice to subscribers. Absolute dumbest. I’ll run far. Btw do you remember our burrito bet? You said test of all time highs by mid June and I said spy 186, I said 186 when spy was around 208, so the odds were stack against me on my target vs yours. Been away, glad I was away after reading this summary. I bet you still don’t think the spy daily chart is now broken. I welcome your explanation … Buy long and hold …smh, I’m sure u think financials was leading you to the promise land…

    1. Gary Post author

      LOL we did test the all time highs. We got within a half percent. If the Brexit had gone the way the polls and bookies had expected then we would already be trading at new highs right now. The breakout has been delayed a bit but not stopped.

  25. plo888

    I completely disagree with your projections of testing all time highs. Your conviction viewpoint and writing definitely came across as a test if not a new ath, meaning a double top touch at the very least. Own it. The word “IF”, are you seriously using that as a defense, IF i knew aapl would turn out to something. C’MON MAN! I respect your work, but own it when off. The words if and guarantees cant get one in a deep hole.

    Even if you were expecting a bremain, a 60 handle move in to the vote didnt give you a reason to sell, here’s another word, GREED!
    I am #thankful for brexit, for now I couldnt care if they #revote

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