34 thoughts on “LONG TERM PATTERNS

  1. Gary Post author

    Just as I expected the jobs report was the trigger to push the dollar down into its daily cycle low and for the short term bounce in gold.

    Don’t fall in love with these moves as both are going to be counter trend moves that will reverse soon. 4-6 days then the intermediate trends will resume.

    1. jhmoffett

      Good call yesterday on the possible reversals. So suggest waiting 4-6 days, and not buying the dip in stocks today?

  2. JetFuel

    You are in denial Gary. I told you it was likely that last Wed 5/25 was the swing low for the HUI. The currency, bond, gold, and miner charts all showed this. I asked what was your plan when GDX started to take out the last swing high and it will likely open above $24 today and begin the next impulsive move higher. Your call for pullbacks to the 200MA or March consolidation zone were just nonsensical at the beginning of an impulsive bull move. Those calls were based on “hope” that you can buy back in at the same or better prices than when you exited. I suspect you will keep your subscribers out of the GDX market indefinitely now as you wait for your mythical cycle low by early July. Listen…it was fine to bag your profits back in March but when the structure sets up for the next move higher to begin you simply need to suck up your pride a little bit and buy back in at higher prices…..but no, you’d rather be right than rich and I feel bad for your subscribers. Like I’ve been saying, early July is more likely to be a swing high and not some cycle low. I’m now waiting for talk of manipulation to enter your commentary and continue focusing your readers on your profitable biotech trade which is nothing compared to what they could be making over the next month in the miners.

    1. blacknite4

      Jetfuel, PM’s and gold in particular got a great big boost this morning due to the shocking latest US job report of only 38,000 jobs caught everyone by surprise but these tend to be 1 or two day events only and don’t typically reverse trends for gold and other PM’s which have been down. I suspect probably even before the session is over today we will see gold beginning to resume its downward trend. In fact Gary mentions this upcoming job report may be the catalyst to temporary boost gold and stocks higher but only for a few days or so before they resume their down trends. Look back and re-read his posts.

      1. JetFuel

        You guys deserve whatever you’re getting in the markets these days…I cant believe your cult-like following of Gary…you will follow him all the way down to the day he blows up your accounts. He’s been on the wrong side of the gold trade since the day I started posted here on 5/25. But go ahead, listen to his nonsense that today’s move is some insignificant countertrend rally that will fizzle in a couple of days. I’m not sure if any of you have noticed but the trend all year in the miners is UP! The only countertrend move was the consolidation and buying opp that came in May. You guys are pathetic.

        1. Gary Post author

          Get what we deserve?

          So far I’ve traded every move in these markets perfectly, including this pop in gold.

          Yep we are getting what we deserve ๐Ÿ™‚

    2. Gary Post author

      And as I told you, I already had it covered. We entered a modest long position a couple of days ago and covered our hedges.

      I told you this was coming. What you won’t believe is that it is a counter trend move so you will get dragged back down into the final ICL. I on the other hand will reenter my hedges in a few days and take profits on our long position and avoid getting sucked down into the ICL.

      1. JetFuel

        you conveniently forgot to mention that the hedge you covered had to have been at a loss, as you recommended hedging on almost the precise day that the HUI and metals were carving their lows. Doh!

        And now you suddenly reveal that you entered modest long positions a couple of days ago? Seriously….does anyone believe you????

        1. Gary Post author

          Nope, I placed the hedge at the exact top on May 2. Dude if you want real time alerts you need to get a monthly subscription.

          All trades are made in real time and recorded to the model portfolio. Every sub can vouch for that.

          1. muskie032

            Yup I for one can vouch for Gary. He has been on the right side consistently. All his trades are recorded, information you get on the free side is not always current. I believe the day Gary came out with the post to put on your hedges was the day he took them off. If this is a cult I’m glad I’m part of it ๐Ÿ™‚ lol.

  3. Surf City

    Can’t wait for the open.

    My Miner positions and Stock Market shorts are looking sweet here… ๐Ÿ˜‰

    1. Gary Post author

      I took profits on all leveraged funds yesterday and went back to unleveraged. We went from up 22% to up 45%.

      You guys are three steps behind us. ๐Ÿ™‚

      Seriously you should consider a monthly subscription.

      1. Surf City

        Gary, Over the past 2 days I loaded up on Stock Market shorts and Put, plus added back heavily to my Miner Trading Shares so my account is up Massively this morning. Looks like I’m the one who is 8-10 steps ahead.

        Took some very tasty profits on some of my positions this morning as I find the first hour of trading is often the craziest. Will look to reload later today. ๐Ÿ˜‰

        1. Gary Post author

          LOL no one here believes you loaded up on shorts on yesterdays breakout. You almost certainly covered your shorts from the day before (if you actually placed them) at a loss.

          Nowhere have I found any comments where you said you were shorting the stock market. You did note back on May 28 & 29 that sentimentrader was short term bearish.

          If you don’t make your calls in real time then they don’t happen. Sorry.

          You did say you were starting to buy back miners, so that is verified.

          1. CaliJoe


            Please don’t respond to these trolls, this is the very reason you left Korelin. Eventually they will stop and go away but it makes it pleasant and nicer to have a clean blog for rest of us. Appreciate your work.

          2. Surf City

            Stock market shorts and Puts were posted on Goldtent and Rambus in real time over the last 2 days on Posts and in comments sections. I posted here yesterday that my charts showed IBB at resistance. Puts on SPY, IBB, APPL and CMG along with some calls in UVXY. All are green now and I am expecting the next IC Low for stocks in the late June to mid-July time frame. The SM Puts are very small and limit my downside risk as most of my Capital is in the Miners. ๐Ÿ™‚

            Here are a couple of examples




      2. rborna

        Have you thought about restricting access to subscribers to reduce the nonsense noise?

        1. Gary Post author

          When someone is an obvious troll with no worthwile input I usually get rid of them pretty quickly. I won’t however get rid of someone just because they disagree with me. Opposing views are always welcome just be civil about it.

  4. Dang

    Thank you for long term report Gary, just what I needed.
    I’m a nobody (just trade retirement account), so don’t listen too much to me. But as a nobody, I am not very emotionally tied to one position or the other (bull or bear) and must say Gary has been on fire lately. What I do see is a lot of people very interested in being right, I’m not sure where that gets you in trading but I would not think it is a strength.

    We see that a lot in politics and sports, people pick a side and no matter how bad their team is they find some way to rationalize their choice. Fact is it’s human nature for people to want to be right, somehow the admission that one is wrong is a weakness.

  5. HHJ

    Meh – weak jobs report, no chance of fed rate hikes yada, yada. …. If anything this boost in gold will
    just deteriorate the commercial COT position more. One off moves likes this won’t last long, gold
    was falling eight days in a row it needed a bounce, nothing goes up or down in a straight line. Old
    story… nothing new here.

    All this reacting to silly news is a distraction that is inevitable in gold at the moment. A commercial orchestrated or driven (whatever you want to call it) is at hand. Good luck trying to go against them.
    Bulls and new longs here will skinned.

  6. eddy1974

    i need an information about DAX index: DCL is 24/05 ?
    EMA 50 and EMA 100 weekly are into an important position…..what do you think?
    SDAX7L by Societรจ Generale

  7. Gary Post author

    The knee jerk reaction in the currencies has the potential to complete the daily cycle low in the dollar. Next week once emotions calm down, traders will start to worry about the Brexit and start buying dollars and selling euros again.

    1. Robert

      Gary I am doubting your call now on lower lows for gold and miners. Not after today’s move. I think that was it for the lows and new highs coming up. Maybe gold 1300+

  8. Surf City

    Took some very nice profits on my Sugar (SGG) trade from early April this morning at $42 perhaps a bit early but you will never go broke taking profits. ?

    Rotated the proceeds into Coffee (JO) which appears to have bottomed.


  9. Surf City

    Still holding my “Core” Micro Miner positions but booked some very nice profits on my more liquid trading shares as I was massively over allocated and my financial advisor probably would have a heart attack.

    Loaded the boat with Trading Shares (GDXJ, AG, AEM, etc) over the last week but especially over the last two days when GDX and GDXJ broke my downtrend lines confirming a new Daily or Trading Cycle. I may be sorry if all the gaps in the miners are actually “breakaway” gaps, but the USD should be forming its DCL very soon and perhaps these gaps will get filled as a retest of the breakout today.

    So we have a new Daily Cycle confirmed in Gold and the Miners but the test near 1255-70 in Gold will tell us if this is also a new Intermediate Cycle as well.


  10. aceskings

    Gary- u said u reduced leverage in stock trades? Did u sell the levered and go into the regular etfs like Xbi?

      1. nonew

        Good call on the DCL! Since it has been such a powerful move already and based on past experience, do you have any thoughts on how the rest of this bouce will play out?

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