18 thoughts on “OIL FOLLOW UP

  1. Gary Post author

    If oil drops down into a DCL then there is a good possibility that stocks will follow it down into a half cycle low. The usual crowd will start posting that we’ve seen the top. They will be wrong again. It will just be a correction and once we are past the Brexit we should get a very powerful relief rally that will take stocks to the all-time highs and maybe even as high as 2150-60.

  2. 1622

    Gary, you’ve called oil, stocks quite well. Biotech is still unclear, and within a trading range. But perhaps you could explain why the very strong view you had on a precious metals reversion to the mean just a few weeks ago is no longer in play. Those on the sidelines need to assess entry points.

    1. Gary Post author

      Those on the sidlines need to get a subscription. We aren’t on the sidelines and haven’t been for a week and a half.

      When markets change I adapt as quickly as possible. The only market that didn’t really drop as far as I would have liked was miners. Silver corrected 50%. That’s a completely normal ICL. Gold dropped 38%. It’s a bit shallow, but still within the normal parameters for an ICL.

      As I told Jet last week: We had it covered. We were already positioning long just in case the ICL didn’t drop as far as I was anticipating.

      1. 1622

        Sure, you adapted and that’s good as a trader. But you were so strongly convinced that we were going to have a substantial correction from where things were just 2 weeks ago:

        “At the low yesterday miners had already given back 62% of the second leg gains, and we are not done with the Intermediate Cycle Low yet. The final Intermediate Cycle Low isn’t due until late June or early July. ”

        Other than price, what changed? Certainly not sentiment (very bullish then and likely more now), or the stretch away from the 200 moving average, or cycle timing.

        Would like to get a subscription but want to make sure there’s substance behind the contrarian perspective you have, and not just a guess followed by adaptation.

        Not simply being critical here. I just would like to understand how to calibrate your perspectives on the various markets.

      2. ras

        Nothing goes straight up. There will always be pull backs and consolidations. Otherwise, the market will cease to exist as we know it. For the pm sector, I would keep buying on dips. I would not chase gdx here. I would wait for a pull back to ma20 at least. Market will manufacture some news to make gdx daily stochs pull back to 20 level. Market train has its own schedule of stops and starts. All that we can do is ride a trend in place and get off as price approaches a resistance level.

        During the current market pull back, nimble traders could play inverse etfs. After the current pull back is complete, there could also be opportunity to go long in oil, bio tech, semis, financials, spx and ndx. There is always some opportunity some where.

  3. CaliJoe

    Oil stocks falling hard today. Usually this occurs when someone wants to accumulate big.

  4. humbled

    In the May correction miners did give back around 17% of the gains. However trying to catch the exact turn could be tricky, let alone doing it consistently across asset markets.

    An alternative to consider is to go in through batches… enter in a few lots to establish the long position as price declines i.e. countertrend buying, ather than betting on the exact low ?

    This scaling in, scaling out technique works for professional traders

  5. tulip

    OK Gary tonight I can hear you……. LOUD and clear.
    Its at yr end…
    Keep up the good audio work….

  6. chrisG

    SPX looks like it could be heading for more trouble next week. Unless they could turn this up quickly next week. Else It could go down to 50 dma, 2070. Or 31.8% retracement at 2000 ish. I think the key lies in Oil. When Oil do a 50% retracement, currently around $44-$45, that will be the green light to long SPX. And oil cannot break 61.8% retracement and stay below it. If so, I suggest staying away from market. Becos it could mark the end of the spx bull run.

    To summarize, to understand SPX, watch oil.

  7. chrisG

    Biotech had a chance to make a higher high, still ain’t. In a mess still. Better to just trade it and be cautious instead of positioning

      1. chrisG

        Gary, I am referring to IBB. Also, XBI looks possibly like a bear flag too. Bottomline, be bit more cautious heading into next week. Need more cards coming out of the deck.

  8. goldcot

    Aren’t you afraid of getting caught in the final ICL in gold during the following weeks? Because that 3 weeks drop doesn’t look an ICL to me. Gold and silver COT is still predicting a decline. With the BLEES below 20 I can’t imagine any rally . And that number is a Tuesday number. On Friday the blees could had been around 10…
    Miners were down on Friday. It seems to me this last 3-4 days gold rally was a fakeout move when china and Hong Kong was closed. It looks like they want to attack gold at the beginning of next week . Maybe Sunday night or Monday morning?

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