Monthly Archives: June 2016

GOLD’S BABY BULL IS OVER; THE ADOLESCENT PHASE IS JUST BEGINNING

GOLD’S BABY BULL IS OVER; THE ADOLESCENT PHASE IS JUST BEGINNING

Folks if you are tired of buying when you should be selling, and selling when you should be buying,

Chasing indicators that are always pointing down at bottoms, and up at tops,

Trying to decipher which alternate wave count is correct (always a favorite strategy for many newsletter writers. With multiple alternate counts a guru can always claim he called the market perfectly as he covered all the bases).

Or calls that are so vague that they make Greenspan’s Fed speak seem clear….

I’m going to give any of you that are still on the fence another opportunity to get on board the SMT at a 20% discount. Buy a yearly subscription to the Smart Money Tracker today or tomorrow, and I will rebate $40 back to you. Just click on the orange sign up today link and choose the yearly subscription.

I don’t do alternate counts. You will never have any trouble deciphering my trades. They will be crystal clear, and posted to the model portfolios in real time.

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CHART OF THE DAY – Dollar, Gold and Silver

Chart of the Day – Dollar, Gold and Silver
Dollar, Gold and Silver

$USD – If the dollar gives us a normal duration intermediate cycle, it will not be due to bottom until September or October.

$GOLD – Assuming gold continues to decouple as the dollar completes its final intermediate rally, we could see gold trend generally higher until fall. I would think a reasonable target by then to be be between 1450 and 1550.

$SILVER – The pullback in gold was a bit shallow at only 38%. But silver retraced 50% and that is a completely normal intermediate cycle decline.

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TAKING THE BATON EARLY

In my recent video I mentioned that I expect the metals to take the baton once stocks and energy found a short term or intermediate term top. Well it looks like they may be doing it a little early.

I have more in the morning report. 

I’ve been beating the drum for months and months that everything would go up together. That has been the norm for most of the last 16 years. Now that the late night and premarket attacks on gold have stopped that trend is resuming.

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WEEKEND CHART – Gold

WEEKEND CHART – Gold
weekend chart - gold

I see traders everywhere panicking. People are acting like they’ve gotten left behind. Nothing could be further from the truth.

While I’m skeptical that gold has made a final intermediate cycle low because it hasn’t dropped far enough to break the intermediate trend line yet, and the dollar should still have another leg up this month, the reality is that gold is only on day 3 of this daily cycle.

If this is a new intermediate cycle it has at least 13-16 weeks left to rally and will easily test $1400. No one has missed anything yet.

In this weekend’s report I will go over what I’m going to look for early next week to tell me if this is a new intermediate cycle, or just a very convincing fake out.

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SMT PORTFOLIO UPDATE

SMT PORTFOLIO UPDATE

As of the last completed trades:

The stock portfolio is up 45% since the beginning of 2015. We are handily outperforming the S&P which is up 2.1% during this time.

The metals portfolio is up 56%. Again handily outperforming the HUI which is up 19% during this period.

The energy portfolio is down 9%. Slightly better than the XLE which is down 13%. I’m confident we will be well into the green by the end of the year but I misjudged the 3 YCL and got in too early back in the summer of 2015. The final 3 YCL didn’t occur until February of 2016.

The currency portfolio is up 6%. Slightly outperforming the dollar which is up a little over 4%. We are actually doing better than this as the current trade is still open and well into profits, but since it hasn’t closed yet, 6% is the official number for now. 

The Quest is up 1700%.

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