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If one had taken my advice and bought LABU at the bottom of the correction they would now be up 62%.
It’s hard to buy at bottoms and sell at tops. If it was easy everyone would do it. Remember that at the next bottom. The correct trade is almost always the one that is hardest to take.
Do you normally encourage your subscribers to buy triple leveraged funds?
Time for ignore button.
I’m willing to use triple leveraged funds right now because all assets are coming out of multi-year cycle lows. Once this is over (like it is in gold) then it will be back to regular ETF”s except for the rare times when an ICL or YCL is forming.
Hey Stupid, no one is encouraging anyone to buy anything THEY ARE IDEAS DOPE!
Wow, that quick tag of support may be all we’re going to get as a pullback in the stock market.
Gary,
Oil is staging a sharp recovery and reversal; stocks are recovering too.
All except gold are reversing downtrend now.
Today is a classic example of why I don’t try to day trade. It’s just too hard to beat the computers.
Somewhere in here gold will be due for a bounce, and oil will be due for a correction. But the intermediate trends are still in place. Oil up, and gold down. The gold:oil ratio still has further to fall. That’s the trend I want to follow.
Once sentiment in oil gets too bullish I’ll sell my energy positions.
Once sentiment gets too bearish in gold, I’ll buy back my metal positions.
Whenever gold bounces it will be a dead cat. Does cycles project how long that bounce will last before the final low?
No, cycles are not used for predicting tops. Those can be either right or lefty translated.
But because the larger intermediate cycle was right translated the next ICL should occur well above 1045. Then the next intermediate cycle should make a higher high above 1306.
Thanks. Are there any cycles resources online so that I may understand the basics?
As expected, $USD is rolling over, while euro and swiss franc power higher and it’s looking more and more like I was correct that last Wed marked the swing low in the $HUI. Good luck guys waiting for more bearish sentiment in the miners and gold and your magical cycle low in a month.
Cool your jets Jetfuel nothing has been determined just yet it is quite reasonable to see the dollar weaken a wee bit here after a good run which in turn would allow gold to rise a bit. However judging by todays weakening of the dollar getting down close to half a cent and gold instead of being correspondingly stronger actually looks quite weak which suggests to me it wants to move lower once the dollar finishes with this probable short pullback. We shall see in the next few days or so but I would hold off on the gloating until this plays out. But I am just as sure we likely won’t hear from you again if you are wrong as I am you will announce it to the world if you were right.
Jet,
Read my first comment. You really need to learn how to trade against your emotions and your bias. Yes gold is going to have a bounce, it will suck in longs and then drag them down into a final yearly cycle low. Don’t say I didn’t warn you.
Just like I tried to warn you that stocks were not rolling over, just like I tried to warn you that bitoech wasn’t rolling over, just like I tried to warn you that oil wans’t rolling over.
You really should get a monthly susbcription, keep an open mind, and give me a month to show you how cycles work.
I’ve never disagreed on any of your positioning except for the precious metals stocks. I too have been long the stock market and oil all year long. I just happen to think you’ve missed the swing low in PMs and your interpretation of sentiment in that sector is completely wrong. I think it is much more likely that the July 1st timeframe is the swing high, not swing low and I will be looking to cash out at that time. I’m not some radical goldbug, just a position trader….I could care less about fundamentals…just show me the charts.
After today’s reversals in oil and stocks; this week, may be even tomorrow, may deliver a sharp move up in stocks and oil.
Maybe, maybe not. Both are looking sick to me.
“power” higher. They haven’t even had time to build bear flags yet.
Short crude and the market.
Why are you trying to pick a top in two strongly trending markets?
Who said anything about picking a a top? You specifically stated in your videos that both markets are in a “prime” area for a “corrective” move. You thought crude could correct as low a $42. I agree with your assessment and intend to profit from those moves just like you profited from a short term move in LABU not very long ago.
Personally I’ve found it very tough to make any lasting gains trying to trade counter trend moves. They often take longer to materialize than one expects.
What will you do if oil goes to $36 first before the correction begins?
And shorting stocks ahead of an FOMC meeting is extremely risky.
I hope it does go to $36! (maybe you meant $63?) My short position is not a big one on crude so I will not panic if it goes against me. My short position on the S&P is much larger so I hope you are right about that “corrective” move.
We may have had all we’re going to get in stocks. They dipped down to test support and bounced.
I also mentioned that stocks could just consolidate sideways before breaking out.
http://chartupload.com/viewer.php?file=99553221764084458722.png
The trend can be your friend.
sorry forgot to label: Daily chart of GDX
“We bought miners low and sold them high” Sounds like a hindsight trade. When did you buy and why did you buy if you were so certain that there was more downside in store for gold? Given that miners all had big opening gaps up on Friday, you couldn’t have “caught the move out of the DCL” at a very good price. And, what was the big rush to sell? Short term thinking on display? Your short term trading actions in the biotechs and miners contradicts your ‘hold it for a couple of years’ lecture.
BTW, you have no idea what I make money on. I did very well on natural gas, which I recommended here on this blog just before it took off. My $80 loss on XBI is chump change.