I’m just waiting for the euro to confirm a final intermediate cycle bottom. It’s now very late in the timing band at 33 weeks. So the bottom could occur at any time. My best guess is the euro will bottom and the dollar will top on, or the day before, the FOMC meeting next week.

The intermediate trend line has been broken. This needs to happen during cycle lows to get technical traders on the wrong side of the market. We are waiting for the trend line to break in gold.

waiting euro bottom
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  1. ras

    Hi,Gary. sounds right. At the next low you are expecting around FOMC meeting, what would be a better buy: spx or the pm sector?

      1. ras

        Probably looks that way. But, my guess is that selective junior pm stocks are likely to give better bang for the buck than major pm or spx etfs. Junior pm stocks could generate 50-70% returns compared to 30% returns on major etfs. For example, NUGT could pull back , may be to 120 level. From August to mid September, it could manage to move up to 180-200 region. Tqqq could move up from 100 or so to 125 plus for a 25% gain. I am leaning more toward pm sector than spx/ndx etfs. Time will tell. spx/ndx/rut etfs softening. Ditto selective junior pm stocks.

        I have watched many technical analysts starting from Joseph Granville from around 1974. I complement you for your skill with cycle analysis. It is a very complex subject. Cycles can expand and contract. Sometimes, they may vanish altogether. Probably, you may have other proprietary indicators to support your cyclical work.

        I rely mostly on price and its momentum with respect to: Dow 65 stocks, sp100 stocks and ndx 100 stocks, and major spx,dow, rut, midcap etfs, sector etfs plus time and space considerations. My compliments again for your excellent work with cycles.

  2. gent25

    $USD – there is my prediction from yesterdays post.. where I said $USD has been hanging around the 200 dma for sometime and now has just broken out … how about them apples!!

    1. Gary Post author

      It will only be temporary, certainly topping by the FOMC meeting next week.

      The dollar has generated two failed intermediate cycles in a row. The 3 year cycle has topped with a classic double top. The dollar is now just in the process of getting all the technical traders on the wrong side of the market.

      Actually the currency to watch is the euro. Once it bottoms then the dollar is toast. And as I pointed out the euro is 33 weeks into its intermediate cycle.

  3. gent25

    FOMC- the way I see it.. no, the fed won’t raise rates next week… but it won’t be as dovish as last meeting either… but it doesn’t matter … gold will go up on the news anyway…

  4. Steffmeister

    I see Spx is about to move into a corrective phase first week of August. “Thank you” Gary for removing my last post. ;-(

    alternative views are not desirable here … so sad

    Back to Spx FED has allowed banks to buy back their own stock, the fix is working at the moment, but for how long? Maybe no crash for another 6-9months. A wide trading range is more likely for midterm. A new stock bull for another 3-5years is nonsense imo.

    1. Gary Post author

      I didn’t remove any comments. I have no problem with traders taking the other side of my view. Just as long as they are respectful.

      Trolls get the boot immediately. Serious traders with rational reasoning behind their calls are always welcome to post. If one feels strongly enough about their position we can always make a burrio bet.

  5. chrisG

    Really Steff? I could see that u are hardly right. And what, u still looking at banking sector as though they are leadership? Pls man. Banks are no longer leader. They just need to sit around, not do anything is fine. They can continue to underperform. As long as they do not plunge , its fine for market.

    Conversely, Google, FB, amzn, all looking so well. Breaking out soon. Gool, Amzn i could see them going to 1000. PCLN is the first one to cross the 1k mark. Googl, AMZN is going too.

    1. Steffmeister

      I am extremely right, all in, in precious metal stocks since August 2015. My portfolio is up by xxx%.

      However now I am looking for a quick shorting bet in the stockmarket, just for fun. We are reaching an inflection point soon, first week of August. Geopolitical violence peak at end of July.

  6. Gary Post author

    Gold finally heading down into it’s DCL in earnest. Those that paid attention and were patient will be rewarded with a huge buying opportunity soon (or a chance to leverage back up). Those that listened to the “other” cycles analysts bought too early thinking this was a half cycle low and was going to bounce soon.

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