Nasdaq and Biotech
There should be enough time in this daily cycle for the Nasdaq to complete a full test of the all-time highs at 5231 before the next drop down into a daily cycle low. Again, let me stress not to read anything into the impending correction. It’s just going to be a run of the mill correction. They tend to happen like clockwork about every 35-45 days.
For those clueless souls who assured me I was wrong about biotech, we have a very powerful bottoming pattern in play. Very similar to what happened in miners many months ago. The possible T-1 pattern target is around 305-310 before the biotech sector corrects along with the stock market. Then you will get another chance to buy. I suggest you don’t blow it a second time.
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Nice one Gary. Good to see crude follow through. Hope the low is really set.
I am actually working within the biotech sphere, not directly, I am programming software to control bioscience process. It was fun for 20years but now I’ve lost my mojo- Much more interested in economics and markets doing trades.
Had an argue with EW fundamentalists yesterday, ironic fundamentals, I just wrote that maybe we are heading up bcos of moneyprinting, a devalue of the dollar. Up is a sneaky way to show everything is good when you lose purchasing power day by day, in a decade with rising charts maybe you have actually lost 60% of your purchasing power.
I was kicked out, bcos “fundamentals is not relevant here” hahahaha
they are so confused, it’s like a hen house over there up or down up or down up or down ….
because Al banned me at Ker… I have to comment here..
did something happen to doc postma…?????
he & LPG are the only ones to listen to over there … plus matthew…
Actually Rick is the only one with a real trading system, I just wish he would lose the perma bear bias.
Hi Gary,
“They tend to happen like clockwork about every 35-45 days.”
At the 35-45 days is starting the DCL, or it should be finish at 35-45 days?
And where are we today in the current daily cycle?
Gary,
I found it at the cycle count charts on the premium service, today is the 27th day of current cycle,
So about Aug 17 is the 40th, mid point of the average 35-45 days, should normally be finish the DCL,
As you expect now the NASDAQ to reach ATH 5231, THIS should be the trigger to start the DCL, ?
Hi Diller55
Social Science, mate. And believe me, I’ve struggled with your same objection for decades — I pretended to be an engineer — a Navy Nuke Officer — followed by more years of denial.
But, you know, back in my Uni days, my old housemate — a PhD candidate in another social science, Cognitive Psychology, gave me a copy of Kuhn’s Structure of Scientific Revolutions, which I promptly read. Kuhn makes clear the problems of subjectivity that creep into ALL sciences, most notably, the social sciences. It also helps that I took one philosophy class at Uni — and we did discuss the “crisis in physics & philosophy” of the 19th century: When it was discovered that the mass of the universe was actually decreasing, clearly breaking Newton’s “Law” of conservation of mass. Natural science is also subjective — every single branch begins with fundamental underlying assumptions that cannot be proven.
So I eventually accepted being a social scientist — then finally embraced it.
The first step was watching some Ron Howard movie back in the 2000s 🙂
Rick is good. Even though he is petma bear, he also could see strength. And advise and post bullish targets. But, it is his forum that is weak. Those proclaimed students of his, often bear like shit. I use to be there. I posted the obvious bull case, and was ostracized. Crap service. And hence out. Gary’s one is good. Haven’t subscribed, will be soon.
Steffmeister,
Loved the fibonacci videos — especially the Vi Hart — I had to force myself to stop watching them after the 5th.
Here’s a fibonacci video for you, especially fibo for me. In this, my 21st year wandering the world, I was inspired to revisit a forgotten video made 34 years ago. The band is pretty good, but they did rise to greatness on 1 composition. There’s also another video, a sort of update performance of the same tune, made 3 years ago.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ASwge9wc-eI&feature=youtu.be
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5INzqtUi9aw&feature=youtu.be
This is starting to wax poetic — must be my new blond hair!
At any rate, all this fibonacci stuff just makes me happy!
Yes it’s like looking behind the curtain of God our creator 🙂 universe is designed by fractals
It appears to me that the cycle highs (shorter term) peaked out early this week (roughly around day 26), similar to the move from last 9/28-11/2 (basically these moves front run earnings season…as soon as the big companies are done reporting) we get sideways to down movement…I do agree that this does look like a pretty explosive pattern longer term and crude oil looks to have put in a major cycle low (roughly 120 days) between the previous two cycle lows.
Biotech, here we come..
Steffmeister,
RE: Fractals, I’ve loved them since I was 12, before I’d even heard the word “fractal”.
Fractals are self-repeating patterns, that repeat at all degrees, from the infinitely small to the infinitely large.
As for the science, I already did start with both fibonacci and fractals — Elliott laid out the patterns, and his work includes both of them. And as you recommend, that is my STARTING point.
To make market forecasting a science, however, requires scientific method, the key to which is the HYPOTHESIS — which comes from the land of dreams & art.
In this case, both Gary & I, as well as everybody else, have done step one, DEFINE THE PROBLEM, either implicitly or explicitly. The problem is PATTERN AMBIGUITY. As Gary says, there’s always at least 1, 2, 3, or more alternate counts.
But Gary & the EW people stop there — opponents like Gary discard Elliott’s work altogether as it does not serve their pragmatic purposes; proponents have built in mechanisms of risk control to try to keep themselves out of trouble, again, for pragmatic purposes. Both sides address the problem; my work is to solve it, by scientific method.
Interesting how you state you’ve lost your mojo in your biotech software programming. I’m on the opposite side of the spectrum: Because what I’m doing is new, there’s no software program to track my key mathematical indicators — I have to use existing parameters, and enter all the data manually — it’s a huge waste of time and a massive energy drain — it can be demoralizing.
Since it takes so long for me to set up charts for a single security or commodity, I’m limited to how much I can work on — so it’s like I have to commit to just 2 or 3 different items. And since I’m 12 hours time difference from NYC, playing the market at night is utterly inconvenient. So far, I haven’t switched to the 24-hr market yet, though I know I will need to — I believe that will be ForEx. I just can’t seem to detach myself from gold & GDX!
So as you can see, my concerns are the limitations of existing software/indicators, and pragmatic considerations.
The few people I’ve talked to express massive incredulity, though they have no idea what specifically I’m working on. But I’m familiar enough with thinking differently from the norm to know the massive resistance to new thinking, so I don’t take it personally.
Finally, in order to commit to a new way of thinking, you absolutely must be HUNGRY — you need do or die motivation. Otherwise, it’s so much more convenient to just choose a side from among the different players within the current mode of thinking, and express contempt for even the suggestion of a new way of thinking.
PS: “my work is to solve it, by scientific method.”
What I meant to write was:
“My work is to solve it, by scientific method — or die trying!”
Yes I know what you mean, time is by far our most valuable asset. According to fractals I’ve seen a daily pattern being repeated in monthly with the exact same pattern, high and lows, years later, fascinating isn’t it?