40 thoughts on “GOLD & THE DOLLAR

  1. nanu

    Hello Mr.Gary saw your video of gold& dollar but are the both correlated that usd should fell & Gold should rise they both can run the same way as fed don’t want the usd down & banks don’t want the gold down
    I heard that dutchess bank says that probably gold should be around 1700$ but it’s not as talks are running that the dutchess bank is about to be collapse
    please rectify if any mistake

  2. mike trike

    Good video Gary, The chartists are all bearish because the 50 DMA was breached on gold, silver and miners. I hear talk of $14 silver again and much lower miners and gold. Seasonally, the miners and gold should get a lift as well.

  3. duckwhorocks1

    Just not gonna happen until oil can catch up. Gold and gold stocks will do diddly squat till Gold:Oil hits a 12:1 ratio, which means oil has to double first.

    Gary is a big believer in regression to the mean. The Gold oil ratio is over 40% above its 200 week moving average and due for a visit there soon.

    1. KimJ

      Interesting point but if you check out 2008-2011, Gold:Oil didn’t come back to the 200wma til mid 2011.

      1. duckwhorocks1

        Even better point Kimj. Look back over the last 40 years, Gold:Oil ratio touches its 200 week average about every 2.5 years, so somewhere at the first quarter of 2017. But considering the highest spike in this ratio’s history I doubt it stops exactly there.

  4. s29

    Agree with Gary, presidential debates are coming up (I doubt that Hillary will do well, Trump and election uncertainty will be bearish for the dollar shorter term), we also have Debt Ceiling at the end of September again, and also the Yuan is added to the IMF-basket on 2nd October.

    Not a chance in hell the Fed is going to raise interest rates in September to risk a financial and economic fall out, she’s in the pocket of the Democratic Party.

    If some unemployment numbers are not so well, then the Dollar will decline sharply, which could be bullish for US equities.

  5. Don

    The dollar monthly chart looks like a long period of consolidation after a strong 18 month advance, not unlike that of the S&P.

    1. Gary Post author

      Except it is making lower intermediate lows. That is a big warning sign. It usually means the larger 3 year cycle is now in decline. If the larger 3 year cycle is still advancing inen price has no business making lower intermediate lows.

      And with possibly another 5-8 weeks yet before the next ICL is due the dollar is at extreme risk of making another lower low at the next ICL as well.

  6. gent25

    if Fridays NFP exceeds expectations is $usd going down and gold up? I thought it was the reverse.

    1. Gary Post author

      Sometimes it does and sometimes it doesn’t. If the larger intermediate cycle is in decline then a good number would likely be a sell the news event.

  7. humbled

    seems as usual we get divergent views. perhaps the politically correct course is for the markets to reveal the intentions on the charts while we wait for confirmation before move in (or move out).

  8. Anthonyo

    Gary,

    With the anticipated, much jawboned by Fed operatives rate hike now being pushed to September but most likely in December after the election; is this delay in hiking rates help cause USD to fall into ICL by Sept/Oct?
    And one would think a December rate hike could then cause a USD bounce into 2017?

    If so, then the gold making a local high in Sept/Oct makes sense; and then a correction in gold after December rate hike again?

    1. Deek

      Hike will be in September. With MSM pushing Clinton to win, it will be easier to blame a fall in the
      markets on Trump’s negative influences before the election. The increase of 0.25% is irrelevant in the scheme of things, but it is the tone or stance which is important. Increase in interest rates sets the table
      for a tightening policy, which will have longer term implications after the election.

      1. Gary Post author

        The odds at the moment ar 21% for a hike. The Fed has never raised interest rates with the odds under 75%.

        Unless something changes dramtically a hike is very unlikely.

        If the jobs number is good it should be a sell the news event.

    1. Gary Post author

      How many times have I warned about this? Yet people still insist on fighting the Fed’s printing press.

      They either have a death wish, or they are just plain stupid….

  9. Robert

    Gary,

    The USD is alot stronger than you thought and gold very bearish. Maybe what you meant to say is gold in a left translated cycle, about to fail and now started the decline into ICL?

    1. Gary Post author

      The dollar is not stronger than I said, Maybe it’s stronger than you expected but I suggest listening to the video again. Minute 3:20.

  10. bill

    Looks to me the fat cats want cheaper mining stocks to load up on been long JDST since $24 Ill flip to JNUG on Thursday before the close and go long…

  11. Alexandru Popovici

    VICTOR, SLP announced its release of the top new software that it has postponed since January.
    I see renewed healthy move in the stock in its aftermath, so that I’ll start buying it on Monday (when I expect DCL in stocks on day 49) alongside BCOV, QCOM, MASI, NLS, GIMO and oil plays ERF, SDRL and REN.

    1. victor

      Thank you Alex, watching it, feel guilty didn’t buy it at 7…, but knowing your stile to buy on strength waited and will buy much more confident…, also put 50% allocated money into 2x oil at 45…

  12. gent25

    someone said: the dollar is dead.. can’t even get up over the 50 dma .. its dead I tell ya.. what a bunch of baloney.

  13. Alexandru Popovici

    Victor, you’re welcome!
    No need for feeling guilty: we are not buying mere reward potential, rather we are buying reward/risk ratios, so that we should strive to buy dips in R/R ratio which more often than rare is not congruent with buying dips in the value of assets.

    Additionally, it makes an excellent time for the company to have made a great release (issue a strong catalyst) while the market is searching for its DCL so that we can do 2 things:
    1) to confirm relative strength of the stock in the wake of the new specific catalyst and
    2) to make an entry, to buy a low R/R ratio.

    you can bet that now R/R ratio is lower for SLP at 8.6 than the R/R ratio when the stock was 7.0 ๐Ÿ˜‰

    1. Alexandru Popovici

      ….I will personally employ a different, non-core strategy for SLP, the kind that money managers do: buy bits of it and planning to hold at least a portion of it for over a year.
      SLP will make my positioning play through this bull market.
      It must be treated with care, though, because it is thinly traded –> highly susceptible to shakeouts by money managers!

      1. victor

        I will buy today, I’m sure it’s get more expensive tomorrow…, shakeout happened ulready. Thanks Alex

        1. Alexandru Popovici

          I am still 100% in cash ๐Ÿ™‚ , still waiting…I still do not have my buying signal in yet so that i am compelled by my entry rules to stay out of the market regardless what.

          PS: also pls look at what AAPL stock did back in Q1 2008 right after its announcement of iPhone release. It serves as a testament ๐Ÿ™‚
          Somthing similar occured with FB after its IPO: a dive and a surge in the wake of a much awaited news.

  14. Robert

    Gary,
    Everything is failing, gold and oil. Oil shouldn’t have dropped so much in the beginning of a cycle, gold already broke 1310

  15. Alexandru Popovici

    I was waiting for oil at 45 as stocks were dropping to their DCL (except that things lingered a bit longer than expected).

  16. Alexandru Popovici

    a waterfall of profit taking will ensue tomorrow in stocks after a STRONG (>200k) payrolls report tomorrow and a USX testing of its 200dma

  17. nanu

    Hello Mr.Gary & all other visitor’s of this blog

    I’m expecting that Gold & Silver are near to there monthly cycle Low

    so I would suggest to buy here for a short term period

    if anybody thinks I’m wrong then surely I will like to know my mistake
    which will help me in Learning a little more better

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