12 thoughts on “REGRESSION TO THE MEAN

  1. muskie032

    Gary could this be an ICL in that making for the miners? If it is we are not ready for it. So far this correction has been more then the ICL in may.

    1. Gary Post author

      I doubt the metals will top until the dollar bottoms. The miners and silver got stretched further than gold so they are dropping harder. But the chart of gold just looks like a DCL to me and another push higher should start once the dollar starts its ICL decline.

  2. heybuddy

    On a positive note for miners, $916 million flowed into GDX today and the BPGDM is now as oversold as it was in late May. Probably in a first leg down in this correction for miners but a nice rebound should start soon.

  3. muskie032

    Looking at the charts tonight I think it’s time to start nibbling on nugt, miners have crashed the BB and RSI is close to 30. If anything we should be good for a bounce up to the 20 ema. I’m sure old yeller will puke on Friday as usual. I think she will drive the usdjpy to 90 in the next month.

    1. Gary Post author

      Over the next month and a half the dollar is going to produce an intermediate degree decline with a panic much much worse than what we are currently seeing in the metals sector.

      1. s29

        Around when the Debt Ceiling is reacher (September 30) and Yuan is added to IMF-basket (October 2)?

  4. arcevian

    Im holding 10 contracts of the January 2018 GLD. Currently sitting on a $2000 loss. I know “hope” is not a stock trading strategy but Im hoping gold holds these levels and starts a rebound. Some of the gold bears are calling for gold to go back to $1000 but im hanging on. This Friday meeting with Yellen has me real nervous. Keeping my fingers crossed.. But I enjoy your market analysis. Thanks for all that you share. Jim

    1. Gary Post author

      Gold needs to dip just a little further to complete the lower triangle trend line. Then the next leg up can begin.

  5. Alexandru Popovici

    The greenback will hold onto a ranging pattern until FOMC in a month.
    This will lend miners the room to complete their intermediary cycle as I forecast yesterday:
    — chart DCL today
    — dead cat bounce -> opportunity to dump your miners holdings next week
    — final decline until just before the FOMC.

    Then the dollar will start trending lower with miners violently moving up in a fresh intermediary cycle.

    1. Gary Post author

      The odds of a rate hike are very small. The dollar will continue down into its yearly cycle low in anticipation of no rate hike. It has already broken the intermediate trend line signaling an ICL decline has begun.

      Then when the Fed fails to raise again in September the dollar will bounce as it will have already priced in no rate hike.

      1. s29

        FOMC September will be a total joke, no rate hike, again Fed losing credibility, especially when they try to talk up a rate hike.

        I don’t think the FOMC will have much influence on the dollar the coming months. It will be political uncertainty and traders who will switch positions.

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