27 thoughts on “BULL MARKET BEHAVIOR: HUI

  1. zkotpen

    rayalex123,

    The continuation pattern is as follows: A down from 31.79; B triangle, in progress; C down to complete a likely yearly cycle low.

    Other triangles that might be more familiar-looking to you:

    EURUSD is in a yearly or multi-year triangle, before the next move down.

    Cable in a smaller degree triangle, post-Brexit.

    1. rayalex123

      Actually if you look at some individual senior miners like GG and ABX, you will see a clear 3 wave down pattern since early July. I think in GDX there has been an expanded flat correction since early July which double bottomed in mid-September, with a slightly higher (truncated) low at that time.

  2. zkotpen

    Gary,

    Nice video, and I certainly like the analogy to 2008-09.

    I believe the current move down in GDX is of the same degree as the Feb, 2010, correction, not for conceptual reasons, nor for technical reasons, but for specific scientific and mathematical reasons.

    One thing you forgot to mention in your analogy: GDX dipped below the 200 day SMA during the Feb, 2010, correction, danced around it for a couple of months, then resumed its advance — an advance that didn’t free itself of the 200 day SMA until the second half of that year.

    You can see a clear 3 waves down in the 2010 correction, in a period when corrections were sharp and swift.

    I’m thinking this one is also 3 waves down, only the middle wave is shaping up more and more like a triangle, which looks more and more like it will break down to test the 200 day SMA, more than that line simply moving up to “catch up to price”.

    Similarly, triangles in EURUSD and cable are both favoring eventual breakdown.

    You know as well as I that a 200 day SMA correction needs to occur — the only question is: When? My math-based scientific approach says the current correction is going there.

    No “quant” can crunch that out, because they don’t have science as foundation. All the math in the world is empirical — “just playing a lot of games with numbers and words”* — unless it’s working in conjunction with scientific method.

    *from “The Goal”, by Eliyahu Goldratt

    1. Gary Post author

      I would tend to disagree. The correction in 2010 was the B-wave move in gold. Understandably that tends to be a much tougher correction than most. In order to get a B-wave correction gold must first finish it’s A-wave advance. Because the D-wave was so extended (lasting almost 5 years) I think it’s going to take the A-wave at least 2-3 intermediate cycles before it is complete. I’m going to say that the A-wave needs to at least reach 1550 before we start the B-wave decline and produce the big corrective move you are looking for.

  3. ras

    Great video and audio, Gary. Audio and the narration crystal clear. Thanks. Pm stock volatility is great. No complaints here. Looks like both oils and golds may be sprinting for few days before profit taking sets in.

  4. AmantedeTeclas

    Hi, Gary. Could You give an update on oil?

    Yesterday was a superinteresting day.

    First oil rose, then someone let the dollar spike to 95.70, which made oil fall to the lows of the day. I guess some people got out at this point because they expected we wouldn’t get anything out of OPEC. Also oil’s chart over the last 6 months reminds me of the S&P-chart at the end of last year. It looks like a head&Shoulder and the RSIs are actually trending down.

    But then after the shake-out they let oil spike on the news of a wishy-washy agreement to cap oil-production at near record-levels…that would come into force maybe in some way or other in November. At the same time Iran and Libia don’t really agree and Russia is hitting record levels in oil-production.
    It seems all so manipulated.

    It also seems to me that oil due to oversupply issues and a still not 100 % certain economic recovery is not in a real bull market but rather in a sideways basing formation.

    Also they seem to just play the Dollar up and down instead of letting it go anywhere.

    I have traded oil against the dollar all those weeks and it gave me a bit courage to listen to Your updates on the dollar. I finally also got long Silver yesterday on the lows, which is already in the green.

    But I am just a hopeful beginner.

    Thanks, Gary

    1. Gary Post author

      I really don’t know what to think about oil. It’s being driven by news and since I have no way to get the news before everyone else there’s no way to get an edge in a market like that.

      1. AmantedeTeclas

        This was my humble guess. It is a real tough one. Because of the uncertain outlook I think almost everyone is losing money here. You really never know where it goes.

        Today there is not even a real connection between the Dollar and oil anymore I feel.

        Well, thanks anyways

  5. Don

    The break out of the stock market and the break down of the dollar have been rather slow with any kind of follow through action. The same could be said about gold. Must be the FED’s fault.

  6. Alexandru Popovici

    Treasuries have completed their anticipated 2-day correction.
    I’m planning on covering my short TLT put on next Tuesday with the target of rolling it over into a position in 2w from now.

  7. Alexandru Popovici

    SDRL and ERF are wild beasts. I had been shaken out of them, though.
    Keeping a more peaceful but very reliable OKS as my oil stock play.

  8. AmantedeTeclas

    Oil is up & away. I was such a bearish idiot. At least I didn’t short oil, thanks to this site. Almost everywhere people tell oil has to go down for fundamental nonsense, and I thought that OPEC wouldn’t come to any conclusion as always. Well, at least I wasn’t short.

  9. Alexandru Popovici

    QCOM SURGIN AGGRESSIVELY DESPITE MARKET’S CORRECTION!
    It reminds me of GIMO’s breakout on SEP14.
    But Ive managed to nail QCOM down πŸ™‚ πŸ™‚ πŸ™‚

    Go QCOM, GO, Go GO!

  10. Alexandru Popovici

    Thank you, Victor!
    On the other hand, I got stopped out of the naked short SPY put; the good news though is that the short on TLT put is outdoing the stop loss.

    SPAR and BCOV are round the corner to repeat the performance of GIMO, YELP, WB, and QCOM.
    I am holdig onto all positions; I am not selling anything.

  11. AmantedeTeclas

    Now I know again, why I was so bearish.

    Just listened to the Korelin Economics Report. Rick Ackerman is pounding the table again that we will see the DOW going down to 2000 or 3000 points. Well, before that we will see AMAZON drag the whole stock market up for a little amount of time, he thinks.

    I don’t know. Is it actually possible that the markets can crash? I mean, there is infinite money supply in all the important currencies. How could this happen? Anyone?

    I mean, I think they will just print all the money necessary to prop up the banks and just stimulate and build streets and houses and roads and stuff.

    Then we are gonna drag Africa out of their demise and develope South America.

    Then we are gonna explore the Deep Sea. I made a video on that, English and Spanish. Check out my channel! πŸ™‚

    And then we gonna build TESLA’s hyperloop to the Moon and will watch the stars.

    No, but honestly. Can the markets go down? With infinite money? How?

    Have a good one.

  12. Alexandru Popovici

    πŸ™‚ no market crash, just a correction in the end of November and another deeper one in February and that will be it.
    The market will be soon flooded with rumors about negotiations of DB with the US DOJ for a deep discount to the penalty.

    SO EXPECT STOVKS MARKET TO RALLY VERY STRONGLY SOON, MOST LIKELY ON MONDAY ON NEGOTIATION RUMORS.
    You will see and remember my words next week πŸ™‚

  13. rayalex123

    Gary

    Do you have any feel for the time frame in which the HUI might test or marginally exceed the August highs? Not sure where we are in the cycle at this point.. Earlier you had mentioned the October 7 jobs report plus or minus a few days but it seems the correction has lasted longer than anticipated. Thanks.

  14. Alexandru Popovici

    Should the stock market continue its South movement, I’ll have to unload 50% of my positions and see about the rest on Monday, when I expect the optimistic rumors on a DB-DOJ deal for a deep penalty discount.

    1. AmantedeTeclas

      Do You not play the VIX-Future, Alex? I made a bit money yesterday there and last week. I think it will settle back to 15,5 in the next days where I wanna buy my first new position. That is pretty low for September / Octobre, even Novembre. The VIX all the time goes so low, because people are scared to be short due to infinite money supply driving up prices. The market crashes, then all people wanna go “short-options” and drive the VIX up. Afterwards the market spikes again, driving all the shorts out. So the VIX falls. Well, that is my understanding. Am I wrong?

  15. Alexandru Popovici

    Amante, no, I am not trading VIX – it’s too elusive to me.
    Then, I DO NOT trade any leveraged products (except ETFs and writing puts – mind I do not short calls! – and both for limited period of time), so that any type of futures trading (even corn which is less volatile) is out of the question for me.

    To be more precise, I do not trade assets with ATR(14) > 5% of the underlying asset price.
    For instance NUGT has an ATR% of 13% or so ! That’s an ominous product for me; I would never assign $1 to it

    1. AmantedeTeclas

      Well, Alex. I am not stupid but I got no idea what You are explaining to me. It seems You must know what You are doing. πŸ™‚ And seemingly I clearly do not. πŸ™‚

      I just know that the spot-VIX yesterday was at below 13, which is superlow for Octobre, and the front month VIX-Future which is always like 15 % higher, touched below 15. At this time of the year spot VIX below 13 and VIX-Future at 15 is extremely low, judging from historical analysis. So I just get in and then average down if it goes any lower.

      With this tactic I even survived the extremely low volatility in August and Septembre. It took a while and some nail-biting, though. In August and Septembre, however, You should wait for the VIX-Future to touch below 13,5 in a year like this one, before You buy the first position. This year the Future for August even touched 12,5 I think which was extreme. Well, am not recommending, just telling what I know.

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